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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Long-term hydrological, biogeochemical, and climatological data from Walker Branch Watershed, East Tennessee, USA

In 1967, the original Walker Branch Watershed (WBW) project was established to study elemental cycling and mass balances in a relatively unimpacted watershed. Over the next 50+ years, findings from additional experimental studies and long-term observations on WBW advanced understanding of catchment hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology and established WBW as a seminal site for catchment science. The 97.5-ha WBW is located in East Tennessee, USA, on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation. Vegetation on the watershed is characteristic of an eastern deciduous, second-growth forest. The watershed is divided into two subcatchments: the West Fork (38.4 ha) and the East Fork (59.1 ha). Headwater streams draining these subcatchments are fed by multiple springs, and thus flow is perennial. Stream water is high in base cations due to weathering of dolomite bedrock and nutrient concentrations are low. Long-term observations of climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry include daily (1969–2014) and 15-min (1994–2014) stream discharge and annual runoff (1969–2014); hourly, daily, and annual rainfall (1969–2012); daily climate and soil temperature (1993–2010); and weekly stream water chemistry (1989–2013). These long-term datasets are publicly available on the WBW website (https://walkerbranch.ornl.gov/long-term-data/). While collection of these data has ceased, related long-term measurements continue through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where WBW is the core terrestrial and aquatic site in the Appalachian and Cumberland Plateau region (NEON's Domain 7) of the United States. These long-term datasets have been and will continue to be important in evaluating the influence of climatic and environmental drivers on catchment processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of forest-controlled snow variability on late-season streamflow varies by climatic region and forest structure

Previous studies have documented how forests influence snow at fine spatial scales, but none have documented the influence that existing forest-snow variability has on streamflow. Here to test how much forest-controlled snow variability influences streamflow, a tiling parameterization based on classifications from high-resolution (1–3 m) vegetation maps was incorporated into the Distributed Hydrology and Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Within each grid cell (90–150 m), the tiling parameterization simulated forest-snow variability with four independently evolving snowpacks. Each tile had unique radiation conditions to represent conditions underneath the canopy, in exposed areas, and along north- and south-facing forest edges. This tiled parameterization was used to test where and when detailed forest-snow modelling should be considered further and where and when the impacts are too small to be worth the effort. To test this, tiled model simulations of streamflow were compared to non-tiled model simulations in the Sierra Nevada, CA, the Jemez Mountains, NM, and the Eastern Cascades, WA. In Tuolumne, CA, the tiled model simulated little difference in grid cell average SWE, and late-season streamflow decreased by only 3%–4% compared to the non-tiled model. In Jemez, NM, the tiled model decreased late-season streamflow by 18% due to increased sublimation. In Chiwawa, WA, the tiled model increased late-season streamflow by 15% due to high shortwave radiation attenuation and less longwave radiation enhancement from the forest. Furthermore, within the Chiwawa, a substantial silvicultural practice was synthetically implemented to increase the north-facing edge's fractional area. This silvicultural experiment, which used the same fractional forest area in all simulations increased late-season streamflow by 35% compared to tiled model simulations that did not represent forest edges. In conclusion, representing forest-SWE variability had an effect on late-season streamflow in some watersheds but not in others based on the fractional area of the forest edges, forest characteristics, and climate conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Circulation Features on Black Carbon Transport into the Arctic in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5)

Current climate models generally under-predict the surface concentration of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic due to the uncertainties associated with emissions, transport, and removal. This bias is also present in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5). In this study, we investigate the uncertainty of Arctic BC due to transport processes simulated by CAM5 by configuring the model to run in an “offline mode” in which the large-scale circulations are prescribed. We compare the simulated BC transport when the offline model is driven by the meteorology predicted by the standard free-running CAM5 with simulations where the meteorology is constrained to agree with reanalysis products. Some circulation biases are apparent: the free-running CAM5 produces about 50% less transient eddy transport of BC than the reanalysis-driven simulations, which may be attributed to the coarse model resolution insufficient to represent eddies. Our analysis shows that the free-running CAM5 reasonably captures the essence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but some discernable differences in the spatial pattern of the AO between the free-running CAM5 and the reanalysis-driven simulations result in significantly different AO modulation of BC transport over Northeast Asia and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, we find that the overall climatological circulation patterns simulated by the free-running CAM5 generally resembles those from the reanalysis products, and BC transport is very similar in both simulation sets. Therefore, the simulated circulation features regulating the long-range BC transport is unlikely the most important cause of the large under-prediction of surface BC concentration in the Arctic.

Arctic↗

On “observation minus reanalysis” method: A view from multidecadal variability

The observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method is widely used to investigate the impact of urbanization and land use change on climate. Here we present the OMR trends for the periods of 1979–1998 and 1989–2008 in eastern China, which appear inconsistent for the regions experiencing rapid urbanization during recent decades. Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, we extract the secular trend and multidecadal variability (MDV) from the temperature observations at stations and the corresponding reanalysis data for the last century and find that, in general, MDV in the reanalysis data is weaker than that in the station observations. This systematic difference considerably modulates the magnitude of the OMR trends during different periods, leading to inconsistent estimates of the impact of urbanization. After MDV adjustment, the OMR trends for Beijing and Shanghai are consistent for the different periods, about 0.04°C–0.1°C/decade, much smaller than some previous estimates. We caution those using OMR methods to estimate the effect of urbanization and also for those using reanalysis data for a limited period in studies of this kind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interannual and interdecadal variations in typhoon tracks around Japan

This study employs Geographical Information Systems software to develop a classification system for typhoons (TYs) affecting Japan (1951–2011) and uses that system to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of storm tracks and their connection to the location and strength of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH). TYs coming within a 300-km buffer zone around the four main islands of Japan (JZOI) are grouped into two main types: those that remain on the Pacific Coast (PC) and those that enter the Japan Sea (JS). Results indicate that fewer TYs enter the JZOI when the NPSH extends strongly to the west and more reach Japan when it extends to the northwest. The winds around the periphery of the NPSH affect the recurvature of TYs directing them either west towards the China Mainland or around the western edge of the high towards Japan. More importantly, during periods when greater numbers of TYs affect the PC side of Japan (PC+), the NPSH extends to the southwest. However, during periods when greater numbers of TYs affect JS side of Japan (JS+), the NPSH extends to the northwest closer to Japan. The southwest extension of the NPSH enables TYs to recurve and pass to the eastern side (PC) of Japan while the northwest extension forces TYs around or across Japan into the JS. An important finding is that the moderately different positions of the NPSH change the atmospheric circulation around Japan dramatically and affect whether TYs pass over the PC side or the JS coast side of Japan. At the interannual time scale, increased JS+ years were observed since 1980 because of the frequent occurrence of the Pacific-Japan pattern. We also found that at the interdecadal time scale, PC+ years have increased due to the southwestward extension of the NPSH since 1980.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

EASM↗

Advantages of a variable‐resolution global climate model in reproducing the seasonal evolution of East Asian summer monsoon

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is unique among monsoon systems that it features meridional evolution of the summer monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performances of a Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) regionally refined over eastern China (14 km) in reproducing the seasonal evolution of EASM precipitation over China. Compared with reference datasets, VR‐CESM shows better performance than the corresponding globally uniform coarse‐resolution model CESM (quasi‐uniform 1°), especially over western China where complex local topography exists. The northward monsoon migration is closely related to low‐level southerly flows and vertical moisture advection, which are more reasonably simulated in VR‐CESM. The four critical timings of the EASM (monsoon onset, withdrawal, peak, and duration) are also better captured in VR‐CESM than in CESM. The corresponding spatial Pearson correlation coefficients of the four critical timings with respect to reference datasets are about 0.1 higher in VR‐CESM than those in CESM. Both models are most accurate in simulating monsoon onset and least accurate at simulating the monsoon peak. The overestimated zonal thermal contrast in CESM is responsible for the earlier monsoon onset and excessive precipitation in September over the Yangtze River valley. Finer resolution in VR‐CESM, especially over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), appears to be a main factor in simulating better zonal thermal contrast and seasonal evolution of the EASM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

The relationship between boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and precipitation extremes over Indonesia is investigated using observational datasets from 30 years (1987–2016) of rain gauge measurements and the gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources from 1998 to 2015. The results indicate that the frequency of daily extreme precipitation events in Indonesia (defined as total precipitation above the 95th percentile) during extended boreal summer (May–August) is significantly modulated by BSISO, especially over the western and northern regions. Under the influences of BSISO1, the probability of the precipitation extremes over Sumatra and Borneo increases by 20–120% (relative to the seasonal probability) during phases 1–3 and approximately 50–80% over the eastern part of Borneo and Sulawesi during phase 4. Under BSISO2, the probability of the extremes increases up to 40% over Sumatra during phases 1 and 2 and up to 140% over Borneo and Sulawesi during phases 2 and 3. The increase in the probability of extreme summer precipitation is associated with enhanced large–scale moisture flux convergence and upward moisture transport induced by the active phases of BSISO. Finally, these results provide potential information for medium–to extended–range predictions of summer precipitation extremes in Indonesia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of habitat‐specific competition for oral rabies vaccine baits between raccoons and opossums

Abstract Throughout the eastern United States, the National Rabies Management Program (NRMP) distributes oral rabies vaccine (ORV) baits to manage rabies virus circulation in raccoon ( Procyon lotor ) populations. The consumption of vaccine baits by non‐target species including Virginia opossums ( Didelphis virginiana ) may reduce the effectiveness of ORV programs, but competition for baits remains poorly quantified in many areas of the southeastern United States. We distributed placebo ORV baits injected with a biomarker across 4 land cover types (bottomland hardwood, upland pine, riparian, isolated wetland) on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA, 2017–2019. We then trapped and collected whiskers from 247 raccoons and 78 opossums to assess biomarker presence using fluorescent microscopy. Our data revealed greater bait uptake probability by raccoons (estimated x̅ = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.19–0.44) compared to opossums (estimated x̅ = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05–0.23) across all cover types surveyed. Probability of bait consumption was not affected by cover type or the abundance of raccoons or opossums. Among raccoons, males were more likely to consume baits than females (estimated x̅ = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.17–0.44 for males and 0.14, 95% CI = 0.05–0.31 for females) and probability of consumption increased by 0.08 with each additional day trapped during the 10‐day trapping session. Uptake rates for raccoons were relatively low compared to other studies and not influenced by competition with opossums. These low consumption rates indicate that additional research addressing the roles of baiting season, bait density, and resource selection will be important to maximize ORV bait uptake by target species in these southeastern landscapes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Raccoon densities across four land cover types in the southeastern United States

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are the primary reservoir for rabies virus in eastern North America. Management of rabies in raccoons is achieved primarily with the use of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) and effective ORV bait densities are determined in part by the densities of raccoons. Decisions regarding ORV bait densities, however, are limited by an incomplete understanding of raccoon densities across the spectrum of landscapes they occupy. We carried out a mark-recapture study of raccoons on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA, from 2017–2019, to develop sex- and landscape-specific raccoon density estimates across 4 rural land cover types in the southeastern United States: bottomland hardwood, riparian forest, isolated wetland, and upland pine (Pinus spp.). We captured 404 unique raccoons 773 times over the 3-year trapping period. Estimated densities were 5.44 ± 0.37 (SE) animals/km 2 in bottomland hardwood forest, 2.62 ± 0.32 animals/km 2 in riparian forest, 2.19 ± 0.29 animals/km 2 in isolated wetlands, and 2.14 ± 0.23 animals/km 2 in upland pine. Densities were significantly higher in bottomland hardwood than all other land cover types, whereas densities among the remaining cover types were similar. These patterns are likely the result of landscape fragmentation and configuration, with riparian forests typically embedded in a matrix of less suitable cover types, leading to low densities despite presumably high resource availability. There were higher densities of males than females in every cover type except upland pine, where the sex ratio was balanced. Densities on our site were low compared to other rural areas, which likely results from the lack of human influence in terms of agriculture or development. The financial cost of baiting for ORV distribution may be reduced by considering the comparatively low densities of raccoons in these rural landscapes in the southeastern United States.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Raccoon density estimation from camera traps for raccoon rabies management

Abstract Density estimation for unmarked animals is particularly challenging, yet density estimates are often necessary for effective wildlife management. Raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) are the primary terrestrial wildlife reservoir for Lyssavirus rabies within the United States. The raccoon rabies variant (RRVV) is actively managed at landscape scales using oral rabies vaccination (ORV) within the eastern United States. To effectively manage RRVV, it is important to know the density of raccoons to appropriately scale the density of ORV baits distributed on the landscape. We compared methods to estimate raccoon densities from camera‐trap data versus more intensive capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) estimates across 2 land cover types (upland pine and bottomland hardwood) in the southeastern United States during 2019 and 2020. We evaluated the effect of alternative camera configurations and durations of camera trapping on density estimates and used an N‐mixture model to estimate raccoon densities, including covariates on abundance and detection. We further compared different methods of scaling camera‐based counts, with the maximum number of raccoons seen on any given image within a day best explaining density. Camera‐trap density estimates were moderately correlated with CMR estimates ( r = 0.56). However, densities from camera‐trap data were more reliable when classifying category of density as an index used to inform management (83% correct when compared to CMR estimates), although the densities in our study fell into the 2 lowest density classes only. Using more cameras reduced bias and uncertainty around density estimates; however, if ≤6 camera traps were used at a site, a line transect approach proved less biased than a grid design. Camera trapping should be conducted for at least 3 weeks for more accurate estimates of raccoon population density in our study area (<5% bias). We show that camera‐trap data can be used to assign raccoon densities to management‐relevant density index bins, but more studies are needed to ensure reliability across a greater range of environmental conditions and raccoon densities.

Davis, Amy J.↗

Patterns of iron and siderophore distributions across the California Current System

Coastal upwelling of nutrients and metals along eastern boundary currents fuels some of the most biologically productive marine ecosystems. Although iron is a main driver of productivity in many of these regions, iron cycling and acquisition by microbes remain poorly constrained, in part due to the unknown composition of organic ligands that keep bioavailable iron in solution. We investigated organic ligand composition in discrete water samples collected across the highly productive California Coastal upwelling system. Siderophores were observed in distinct nutrient regimes at concentrations ranging from 1 pM to 18 pM. Near the shallow continental shelf, ferrioxamine B was observed in recently upwelled, high chlorophyll surface waters while synechobactins were identified within nepheloid layers at 60–90 m depth. In offshore waters characterized by intermediate chlorophyll, iron, and nitrate concentrations, we found amphibactins and an unknown siderophore with a molecular formula of C 33 H 58 O 8 N 5 Fe. Highest concentrations were measured in the photic zone, however, amphibactins were also found in waters as deep as 1500 m. The distribution of siderophores provides evidence for microbial iron deficiency across a range of nutrient regimes and indicates siderophore production and acquisition is an important strategy for biological iron uptake in iron limited coastal systems. Polydisperse humic ligands were also detected throughout the water column and were particularly abundant near the benthic boundary. Our results highlight the fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of metal ligand composition in an upwelling environment and elucidate distinct sources that include biological production and the degradation of organic matter in suboxic waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating uncertainty in ambient and saturation nutrient uptake metrics from nutrient pulse releases in stream ecosystems

Nutrient spiraling is an important ecosystem process characterizing nutrient transport and uptake in streams. Various nutrient addition methods are used to estimate uptake metrics; however, uncertainty in the metrics is not often evaluated. A method was developed to quantify uncertainty in ambient and saturation nutrient uptake metrics estimated from saturating pulse nutrient additions (Tracer Additions for Spiraling Curve Characterization; TASCC). Using a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, the 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated for ambient uptake lengths (S w-amb ) and maximum areal uptake rates (U max ) based on 100,000 datasets generated from each of four nitrogen and five phosphorous TASCC experiments conducted seasonally in a forest stream in eastern Tennessee, U.S.A. Uncertainty estimates from the MC approach were compared to the CIs estimated from ordinary least squares (OLS) and non-linear least squares (NLS) models used to calculate S w-amb and U max , respectively, from the TASCC method. The CIs for Sw-amb and Umax were large, but were not consistently larger using the MC method. Despite the large CIs, significant differences (based on nonoverlapping CIs) in nutrient metrics among seasons were found with more significant differences using the OLS/NLS vs. the MC method. Lastly, we suggest that the MC approach is a robust way to estimate uncertainty, as the calculation of S w-amb and U max violates assumptions of OLS/NLS while the MC approach is free of these assumptions. The MC approach can be applied to other ecosystem metrics that are calculated from multiple parameters, providing a more robust estimate of these metrics and their associated uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Fish Out of Basin: Increased Stress Physiology and Reduced Performance of Salmon River Hatchery Chinook Salmon

Abstract Variation in rearing conditions across hatcheries and basins can affect the performance of hatchery salmonids in the wild. In 2008, the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes began planning an out-of-basin hatchery facility on the eastern Snake River Plain for rearing threatened Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha for release in tributaries of the upper Salmon River, Idaho, USA. To help determine the viability of the planned out-of-basin hatchery, we reared 100,000 juvenile Chinook Salmon from the same genetic stock at one in-basin (Sawtooth Fish Hatchery on the Salmon River) and one out-of-basin (Springfield Fish Hatchery on the Snake River Plain) site in Idaho that are characterized by significant differences in water hardness and temperature regime. In October 2018 and April 2019, we tested whether fish condition, stress physiology, acute mortality, and downstream survival differed between the two groups at the parr and smolt life stages upon release in the Yankee Fork Salmon River, which is characterized by low water hardness. For both release groups, parr experienced low acute mortality during the 48 h after release; however, the out-of-basin group had a downstream survival rate through an unimpounded portion of the migration corridor that was an order of magnitude lower than that for the in-basin group. During the smolt release, the out-of-basin group showed signs of extreme physiological stress, acute mortality rates of 40–80%, and low survival in the unimpounded portion of the migratory corridor. The in-basin group recovered from the stress of transport and release, had no acute mortality, and survived through the unimpounded migratory corridor at a rate comparable to that of previous years’ releases. Based on the results of this comparative study, comanagers are evaluating alternatives to the proposed out-of-basin hatchery program. This case study highlights the effects of differences between rearing and release conditions on salmon physiology and survival as well as the value of conducting preliminary evaluations prior to implementing large-scale hatchery supplementation programs.

Ebel, Jonathan D.↗

Modeling the effects of dust-radiative forcing on the movement of Hurricane Helene (2006)

This study is the first to relate Saharan dust and tropical cyclone (TC) movement over the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean (ECAO) using observations and modeling. An eastward position forecast bias for TCs over ECAO has been noticed and is potentially related to the neglect of dust-radiative forcing in numerical models. Using 11-year observations we found that aerosol optical depth and TC westward speed over ECAO are correlated (0.62) with a confidence level of 99%. The Weather Research and Forecasting dust model was used to quantitatively study the impact of the dust-radiative forcing on Helene’s (2006) track forecasts with 3 different microphysics schemes. The dust-radiative forcing increases the temperature in the warm Saharan Air Layer, thus increases the temperature gradient and modifies wind speed and/or direction along the southern flank of the dust plume, improving Helene’s track. Including dust-radiative forcing reduces the error in 7-day position forecasts by 27% (~205km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Weather radar in Nepal: opportunities and challenges in a mountainous region

Extreme rainfall is one of the major causes of natural hazards in the central Himalayan region, including Nepal. The performance of strategies to manage hazards and related risks relies on the accuracy of quantitative hydrometeorological prediction. Rain gauges have traditionally been used to measure the rainfall amount. However, point measurements with limited gauge coverage cannot accurately represent spatial precipitation variability in complex topography. Weather radar have shown potential for useful information on accurate areal rainfall estimates. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in Nepal installed their first weather radar in 2019 in the western region of the country. Two more radars will be added to the planned radar network in the near future, in the country's central and eastern regions, respectively. We highlight both the opportunities and challenges with radar installation and observation in the mountainous regions. Radar-rainfall estimates across the Himalayas can be useful to inform decision-making in a broad range of infrastructure sectors, including water, energy, construction, transportation, and agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗