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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Seeking Repeating Anthropogenic Seismic Sources: Implications for Seismic Velocity Monitoring at Fault Zones

Abstract Seismic velocities in rocks are highly sensitive to changes in permanent deformation and fluid content. The temporal variation of seismic velocity during the preparation phase of earthquakes has been well documented in laboratories but rarely observed in nature. It has been recently found that some anthropogenic, high‐frequency (>1 Hz) seismic sources are powerful enough to generate body waves that travel down to a few kilometers and can be used to monitor fault zones at seismogenic depth. Anthropogenic seismic sources typically have fixed spatial distribution and provide new perspectives for velocity monitoring. In this work, we propose a systematic workflow to seek such powerful seismic sources in a rapid and straightforward manner. We tackle the problem from a statistical point of view, considering that persistent, powerful seismic sources yield highly coherent correlation functions (CFs) between pairs of seismic sensors. The algorithm is tested in California and Japan. Multiple sites close to fault zones show high‐frequency CFs stable for an extended period of time. These findings have great potential for monitoring fault zones, including the San Jacinto Fault and the Ridgecrest area in Southern California, Napa in Northern California, and faults in central Japan. However, extra steps, such as beamforming or polarization analysis, are required to determine the dominant seismic sources and study the source characteristics, which are crucial to interpreting the velocity monitoring results. Train tremors identified by the present approach have been successfully used for seismic velocity monitoring of the San Jacinto Fault in previous studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Automatic log analysis with NLP for the CMS workflow handling

The central Monte-Carlo production of the CMS experiment utilizes the WLCG infrastructure and manages daily thousands of tasks, each up to thousands of jobs. The distributed computing system is bound to sustain a certain rate of failures of various types, which are currently handled by computing operators a posteriori. Within the context of computing operations, and operation intelligence, we propose a Machine Learning technique to learn from the operators with a view to reduce the operational workload and delays. This work is in continuation of CMS work on operation intelligence to try and reach accurate predictions with Machine Learning. We present an approach to consider the log files of the workflows as regular text to leverage modern techniques from Natural Language Processing (NLP). In general, log files contain a substantial amount of text that is not human language. Therefore, different log parsing approaches are studied in order to map the log files’ words to high dimensional vectors. These vectors are then exploited as feature space to train a model that predicts the action that the operator has to take. This approach has the advantage that the information of the log files is extracted automatically and the format of the logs can be arbitrary. In this work the performance of the log file analysis with NLP is presented and compared to previous approaches.

Layer, Lukas↗

Evaluation of the Event Driven Phenology Model Coupled with the VegET Evapotranspiration Model Through Comparisons with Reference Datasets in a Spatially Explicit Manner

A new model coupling scheme with remote sensing data assimilation was developed for estimation of daily actual evapotranspiration (ET). The scheme represents a mix of the VegET, a physically based model to estimate ET from a water balance, and an event driven phenology model (EDPM), where the EDPM is an empirically derived crop specific model capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. In this experiment, the scheme was deployed in a spatially explicit manner within the croplands of the Northern Great Plains. The evaluation was carried out using 2007-2009 land surface forcing data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and crop maps derived from remotely sensed data of NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compared the canopy parameters produced by the phenology model with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the MODIS nadir bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) product. The expectations of the EDPM performance in prognostic mode were met, producing determination coefficient (r2) of 0.8 +/-.0.15. Model estimates of NDVI yielded root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1 +/-.0.035 for the entire study area. Retrospective correction of canopy dynamics with MODIS NDVI brought the errors down to just below 10% of observed data range. The ET estimates produced by the coupled scheme were compared with ones from the MODIS land product suite. The expected r2=0.7 +/-.15 and RMSE = 11.2 +/-.4 mm per 8 days were met and even exceeded by the coupling scheme0 functioning in both prognostic and retrospective modes. Minor setbacks of the EDPM and VegET performance (r2 about 0.5 and additional 30 % of RMSR) were found on the peripheries of the study area and attributed to the insufficient EDPM training and to spatially varying accuracy of crop maps. Overall the experiment provided sufficient evidence of soundness and robustness of the EDPM and VegET coupling scheme, assuring its potential for spatially explicit applications.

Kovalskyy, V.↗

Shocklets, SLAMS, and Field-Aligned Ion Beams in the Terrestrial Foreshock

We present Wind spacecraft observations of ion distributions showing field- aligned beams (FABs) and large-amplitude magnetic fluctuations composed of a series of shocklets and short large-amplitude magnetic structures (SLAMS). The FABs are found to have T(sub k) approx 80-850 eV, V(sub b)/V(sub sw) approx 1.3-2.4, T(sub perpendicular,b)/T(sub paralell,b) approx 1-8, and n(sub b)/n(sub o) approx 0.2-11%. Saturation amplitudes for ion/ion resonant and non-resonant instabilities are too small to explain the observed SLAMS amplitudes. We show two examples where groups of SLAMS can act like a local quasi-perpendicular shock reflecting ions to produce the FABs, a scenario distinct from the more-common production at the quasi-perpendicular bow shock. The SLAMS exhibit a foot-like magnetic enhancement with a leading magnetosonic whistler train, consistent with previous observations. Strong ion and electron heating are observed within the series of shocklets and SLAMS with temperatures increasing by factors approx > 5 and approx >3, respectively. Both the core and halo electron components show strong perpendicular heating inside the feature.

Wilson, L. B.↗

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

AENET–LAMMPS and AENET–TINKER : Interfaces for accurate and efficient molecular dynamics simulations with machine learning potentials

Machine-learning potentials (MLPs) trained on data from quantum-mechanics based first-principles methods can approach the accuracy of the reference method at a fraction of the computational cost. To facilitate efficient MLP-based molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations, an integration of the MLPs with sampling software is needed. Here, we develop two interfaces that link the atomic energy network (ænet) MLP package with the popular sampling packages TINKER and LAMMPS. The three packages, ænet, TINKER, and LAMMPS, are free and open-source software that enable, in combination, accurate simulations of large and complex systems with low computational cost that scales linearly with the number of atoms. Scaling tests show that the parallel efficiency of the ænet–TINKER interface is nearly optimal but is limited to shared-memory systems. The ænet–LAMMPS interface achieves excellent parallel efficiency on highly parallel distributed memory systems and benefits from the highly optimized neighbor list implemented in LAMMPS. We demonstrate the utility of the two MLP interfaces for two relevant example applications: the investigation of diffusion phenomena in liquid water and the equilibration of nanostructured amorphous battery materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation Technology at NASA

NASA Ames Research Center is home to several high-fidelity research flight and air-traffic control simulation facilities which, together with an experienced workforce, produce high-quality research data and findings that have proven to be applicable in the real world. These assets include the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), Crew Vehicle Systems Research Facility (CVSRF), Future Flight Central (FFC) air traffic control tower simulator, and several air-traffic control (ATC) simulators. The VMS combines a high-fidelity simulation capability with an adaptable simulation environment, enabling customization for numerous human-in-the-loop research applications. The distinctive feature of the VMS is its unparalleled large amplitude, high-fidelity motion capability. In over 30 years of continuous operation, the VMS has contributed significantly to the body of knowledge in a range of disciplines directly benefiting several aerospace programs and flight safety, including the design and development of flight control systems for the Joint Strike Fighter, Space Shuttle Orbiter, and rotorcraft. It continues to be used for researching new vehicle configurations, vehicle control and safety, transfer-of-training, etc., by NASA, other government agencies, and Industry.The CVSRF includes two motion-based flight simulators: a Boeing 747-400 full flight simulator and the reconfigurable Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator (ACFS). These simulators are primarily used to research air-traffic management concepts and procedures, advanced navigation and avionics concepts, and cockpit human factors. FFC is a full-sized control tower simulator with a 360-degree external field-of-view display system and reconfigurable system architecture. FFC and the ATC simulators are used for testing air-traffic management automation and decision support tools and demonstrate their feasibility in a realistic environment prior to technology transfer for implementation in the National Airspace System (NAS).To support integrated simulations and flight-tests for NASA's Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project, NASA developed a distributed test environment incorporating Live, Virtual, Constructive, (LVC) concepts. Development of the software enabling the LVC is conducted primarily at the Distributed Simulation Research Lab (DSRL) at NASA Ames. The LVC components provide the core infrastructure supporting simulation of UAS operations by integrating live and virtual aircraft in a realistic air traffic environment. This provides the ability to conduct tests more efficiently by promoting the use of existing distributed assets. The LVC infrastructure was used in several human-in-the-loop simulations to evaluate acceptance of Detect and Avoid (DAA) advisories used by UAS pilots to maintain well clear of other virtual traffic and to negotiate maneuvers with air traffic control. It is currently being used to support testing of self-separation algorithms between unmanned and manned aircraft in live flight. Further simulations with more comprehensive air traffic scenarios mixing live and virtual aircraft is planned.In the current fiscal environment, maintaining and upgrading these high-fidelity simulation assets and retaining the skilled workforce necessary to meet future research needs is the primary non-technical challenge.

CVSRF↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decom- pose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high- level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Design and optimization of a modular hydrogen-based integrated energy system to maximize revenue via nuclear-renewable sources

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel modular distributed framework that uses optimal energy-dispatching strategies to enable greater flexibility and profitability in nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (NR-IES). Hydrogen is used as a commodity in this framework since its production can improve grid stability and system operational flexibility, decarbonize heavy industry, and create an additional revenue stream for electricity generators, particularly nuclear power plants with high operational expenses. The proposed solution addresses the challenges associated with merging multiple software and services from various domains by using functional mock-up units (FMU) to co-simulate diverse subsystems designed in various platforms. The tightly coupled integrated energy system (IES) is optimized to maximize revenue by utilizing the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique to make smart dispatching decisions based on variable electricity prices and the availability of renewable energy. Proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm is used in training and testing the DRL agent. Over a period of 120 days, the proposed hydrogen-based IES framework showed about 10% revenue boost compared to a non-hydrogen generating baseline IES while also providing an easily-adoptable framework which can help to improve the flexibility of future generation nuclear power plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems With Inverter-Based Resources: Integrating Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approaches

Here, in this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, we utilize partial physical knowledge of the system, including the inverters’ structures and control diagrams, as well as the equivalent network model simplified through Kron reduction. The white-box model containing unknown parameters is then constructed with mathematical equations and an optimization-based method is subsequently employed to identify these unknown parameters within the white-box model. Next, the graybox modeling framework is then constructed by embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model (represented using a neural network). Finally, the black-box section is trained using the collected input-output datasets and the gray-box model is then obtained. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our gray-box modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding Differences Between Co-Incident CloudSat, Aqua/MODIS and NOAA18 MHS Ice water Path Retrievals Over the Tropical Oceans

Accurate measurement of the physical and radiative properties of clouds and their representation in climate models continues to be a challe nge. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of t unable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ o bservations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties, particularly with respect to particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. Ice Water Path (IWP), or amount of ice present in a cloud column, is an important cl oud property to accurately quantify, because it is an integral measur e of the microphysical properties of clouds and the cloud feedback pr ocesses in the climate system. This paper investigates near co-incident retrievals of IWP over tropical oceans using three diverse measurem ent systems: radar from CloudSat, Vis/IR from Aqua/MODIS, and microwa ve from NOAA-18IMHS. CloudSat 94 GHz radar measurements provide high resolution vertical and along-orbit structure of cloud reflectivity a nd enable IWP (and IWC) retrievals. Overlapping MODIS measurements of cloud optical thickness and phase allow estimates of IWP when cloud tops are identified as being ice. Periodically, NOAA18 becomes co-inci dent in space I time to enable comparison of A-Train measurements to IWP inferred from the 157 and 89 GHz channel radiances. This latter m easurement is effective only for thick convective anvil systems. We s tratify these co-incident data (less than 4 minutes separation) into cirrus only, cirrus overlying liquid water clouds, and precipitating d eep convective clouds. Substantial biases in IWP and ice effective ra dius are found. Systematic differences in these retrievals are consid ered in light of the uncertainties in a priori assumptions ofPSDs, sp ectral sensitivity and algorithm strategies, which have a direct impact on the IWP product.

Pittman, Jasna↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

EMPOWERED Distributed Energy Resources Permit Accelerator Pilot

This report summarizes the EMPOWERED Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Permit Accelerator Pilot project. Its primary objective was to streamline the design, installation, permitting, and inspections of targeted Distributed Energy Resource (DER) solutions. Streamlining these processes is critical to strengthening and accelerating the adoption of DER solutions nationwide. Moreover, streamlined processes help expedite the clean energy transition and expand energy resilience by improving understanding and capability among key stakeholders like property owners, code officials, and the general workforce. The project team accomplished this by developing and deploying a set of design and permitting guides for simple DER solutions, which they rolled out via a permitting pilot program. The project team developed nine permitting and inspection guides for simple DER solutions, as follows: 1. Single-Family and Duplex: Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE), and Storage, Solar + Storage (each in two code cycles) 2. Multi-family and Office: EVSE, Storage, Solar + Storage (each in two code cycles) 3. A permitting process guide to support the implementation of the permitting guides. The guides cover key code requirements via plan review and field inspection checklists for code officials and building owners to follow to streamline the permitting and inspections process for DER solutions. Following the development of the initial set of guides, the project team formed two cohorts, each made up of four jurisdictions, to participate in the Permit Accelerator Pilot. Each cohort received training and technical assistance to support them in incorporating the guides into use. The project successfully engaged jurisdictions in two disparate US regions: Chelsea, Somerville, Natick, and Norwood in metro Boston; and Pima County, Town of Gilbert, Flagstaff, and Sedona in Arizona. Feedback gathered from the project was valuable in refining the guides to better address jurisdictional needs. After the pilot period, the project team developed final versions of the guides based on extensive feedback from the cohorts and from external technical peer review. Feedback included needs and barriers related to implementation, as well as detailed technical improvements from external peer review. The final guides were presented in a series of webinars with a national reach, with 192 attendees from 35 states in the live session of the final webinar, and the final guides are posted online and available for use nationwide. Key findings: • The most receptive jurisdictions were those adjacent to other jurisdictions that had already adopted similar initiatives. The least receptive jurisdictions were those in the midst of adopting new code cycles. • The most common barrier to jurisdictional adoption of new guidelines were internal administrative and process delays, more so than technical barriers. • The main technical barrier to adoption proved to be the concern of fire hazard risks posed by energy storage systems. There is some apprehension in the code enforcement community about the safety of the batteries. Education coordinated with fire and safety services will help alleviate concerns and increase confidence in the acceptance of innovative technologies. • Opportunities to further leverage and advance the guides and related resources include outreach, education, and jurisdictional support; updates to the resources to align with code cycle changes and local requirements; and advancements supporting emerging technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Three Way Comparison between Two OMI/Aura and One POLDER/PARASOL Cloud Pressure Products

The cloud pressures determined by three different algorithms, operating on reflectances measured by two space-borne instruments in the "A" train, are compared with each other. The retrieval algorithms are based on absorption in the oxygen A-band near 760 nm, absorption by a collision induced absorption in oxygen near 477nm, and the filling in of Fraunhofer lines by rotational Raman scattering. The first algorithm operates on data collected by the POLDER instrument on board PARASOL, while the latter two operate on data from the OMI instrument on board Aura. The satellites sample the same air mass within about 15 minutes. Using one month of data, the cloud pressures from the three algorithms are found to show a similar behavior, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.85 between the data sets for thick clouds. The average differences in the cloud pressure are also small, between 2 and 45 hPa, for the whole data set. For optically thin to medium thick clouds, the cloud pressure the distribution found by POLDER is very similar to that found by OMI using the O2 - O2 absorption. Somewhat larger differences are found for very thick clouds, and we hypothesise that the strong absorption in the oxygen A-band causes the POLDER instrument to retrieve lower pressures for those scenes.

Sneep, M.↗

Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical cyclones NOT interacted with thc developing baroclinic disturbance as it penetrated the western MED. To do so, we first remove the moisture and dynamical features of the two vestigial tropical cyclones from the large scale meteorological fields used to initialize the Mediterranean cyclone simulation. This is done through depletion of the moisture front associated with the two tropical cyclones, accomplished by relaxation to the suppressed east Atlantic conditions. The dynamical effects are removed through energetic destruction of the latter stages of the eastward traveling tropical cyclones, accomplished by lowering the underlying sea surface temperatures. A precipitation-distribution impact experiment is then run by initializing with the customized large-scale fields. The final precipitation-impact field is described by differencing the "impact" run from the "control" run -- the latter defined as the original simulation which intrinsically includes the effects of the two vestigial tropical cyclones.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Deep Learning-Based Adaptive Remedial Action Scheme with Security Margin for Renewable-Dominated Power Grids

The Remedial Action Scheme (RAS) is designed to take corrective actions after detecting predetermined conditions to maintain system transient stability in large interconnected power grids. However, since RAS is usually designed based on a few selected typical operating conditions, it is not optimal in operating conditions that are not considered in the offline design, especially under frequently and dramatically varying operating conditions due to the increasing integration of intermittent renewables. The deep learning-based RAS is proposed to enhance the adaptivity of RAS to varying operating conditions. During the training, a customized loss function is developed to penalize the negative loss and suggest corrective actions with a security margin to avoid triggering under-frequency and over-frequency relays. Simulation results of the reduced United States Western Interconnection system model demonstrate that the proposed deep learning–based RAS can provide optimal corrective actions for unseen operating conditions while maintaining a sufficient security margin.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cybersecurity for Distance Relay Protection

This project is a DOE follow-up effort on the CREDC workshop held on September 13, 2018 in Cambridge, MA to discuss cybersecurity of distance relays, which considered the benefits, vulnerabilities and risk mitigations for the use of communication systems in power system protection. The objectives of this project are to define the taxonomy of relay protection and associated communications; define use cases describing approaches to reduce the cyber-attack surface on those protective relays; and evaluate the loss of operational functional capability from changes to communication coverage. Mitigating controls will also be evaluated to understand if there are other approaches to reduce attack surfaces while maintaining communications or partial communications. Distance relays are used to protect transmission lines of approximately 10 to 300 miles in length, by detecting short circuits (i.e., faults) on the lines and then tripping circuit breakers in the substation. Such protection systems are a subset of the power system and they incorporate sensing, logic and communication functions. Protection system exposure to cyberattack could be drastically limited by disconnecting relays from all vulnerable communication systems, but this may adversely impact overall power system performance in the absence of cyberattack. This project began with a use case analysis of protection systems with communications, as summarized in this report. It continued with modeling, testing and evaluation in a miniature power system (MPS), located in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) Electric Power Training Center (EPTC). The project also incorporated feedback from two industry meetings held in February and September 2019. The suggested next steps account for and complement the work already underway with DOE/CESER funding: 1. Study the performance of LCD and PC vs. PUTT, which is less reliant on communication system performance and GPS timing references. The PUTT scheme could prove to be more resilient to cyberattack or communications-related disruption. It could also be more tolerant of message re-routing with SDN/SDR communication systems. On the other hand, it will be more vulnerable to false tripping during dynamic events or to loss of the voltage signal. The optimum choice of scheme may depend on the specific power system and risk assessment. This study could provide a new template for evaluation based on business functions. 2. Research and develop new methods to detect and monitor distributed physical attacks, possibly using drones, video sensors, thermal sensors, machine learning and other advanced techniques. This will help mitigate the impact of cyberattack on the protection system, and will also help mitigate the impact of wild fires. 3. Implement a scalable PKI for use in electric utility protection systems. This will encourage widespread adoption of secure authentication methods that are already available, but not widely used at present. This will help secure engineering access to the relays. 4. Investigate the use of SDN in combination with SDR to achieve better cybersecurity and electromagnetic security of the network, incorporating path variability. This would help secure both engineering access and peer-to-peer GOOSE messaging. 5. Perform additional testing, with operator evaluation of “red button” scenarios, PUTT vs. LCD, relay mis-operations, and other cyberattacks in the EPTC. This is an important advantage of testing in the EPTC rather than by computer simulation or even hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the EPTC is already dedicated to managing the situational awareness, operator response times and other human impacts. One of the project objectives was to settle on a common nomenclature for this problem space. We have concluded that the OSI layer model, supplemented by ANSI device numbers and other IEEE standards, is already well-accepted by the industry. The IEEE PSRC knowledge base provides a great deal of public information

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Illumination Modeling System for Human Factors Analyses

Seeing is critical to human performance. Lighting is critical for seeing. Therefore, lighting is critical to human performance. This is common sense, and here on earth, it is easily taken for granted. However, on orbit, because the sun will rise or set every 45 minutes on average, humans working in space must cope with extremely dynamic lighting conditions. Contrast conditions of harsh shadowing and glare is also severe. The prediction of lighting conditions for critical operations is essential. Crew training can factor lighting into the lesson plans when necessary. Mission planners can determine whether low-light video cameras are required or whether additional luminaires need to be flown. The optimization of the quantity and quality of light is needed because of the effects on crew safety, on electrical power and on equipment maintainability. To address all of these issues, an illumination modeling system has been developed by the Graphics Research and Analyses Facility (GRAF) and Lighting Environment Test Facility (LETF) in the Space Human Factors Laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center. The system uses physically based ray tracing software (Radiance) developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, a human factors oriented geometric modeling system (PLAID) and an extensive database of humans and environments. Material reflectivity properties of major surfaces and critical surfaces are measured using a gonio-reflectometer. Luminaires (lights) are measured for beam spread distribution, color and intensity. Video camera performances are measured for color and light sensitivity. 3D geometric models of humans and the environment are combined with the material and light models to form a system capable of predicting lighting conditions and visibility conditions in space.

Huynh, Thong↗