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Air traffic management evaluation tool

Methods for evaluating and implementing air traffic management tools and approaches for managing and avoiding an air traffic incident before the incident occurs. A first system receives parameters for flight plan configurations (e.g., initial fuel carried, flight route, flight route segments followed, flight altitude for a given flight route segment, aircraft velocity for each flight route segment, flight route ascent rate, flight route descent route, flight departure site, flight departure time, flight arrival time, flight destination site and/or alternate flight destination site), flight plan schedule, expected weather along each flight route segment, aircraft specifics, airspace (altitude) bounds for each flight route segment, navigational aids available. The invention provides flight plan routing and direct routing or wind optimal routing, using great circle navigation and spherical Earth geometry. The invention provides for aircraft dynamics effects, such as wind effects at each altitude, altitude changes, airspeed changes and aircraft turns to provide predictions of aircraft trajectory (and, optionally, aircraft fuel use). A second system provides several aviation applications using the first system. Several classes of potential incidents are analyzed and averted, by appropriate change en route of one or more parameters in the flight plan configuration, as provided by a conflict detection and resolution module and/or traffic flow management modules. These applications include conflict detection and resolution, miles-in trail or minutes-in-trail aircraft separation, flight arrival management, flight re-routing, weather prediction and analysis and interpolation of weather variables based upon sparse measurements. The invention combines these features to provide an aircraft monitoring system and an aircraft user system that interact and negotiate changes with each other.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Development of flashlamp-pumped Q-switched Ho:Tm:Cr:YAG lasers for mid-infrared LIDAR application

A flashlamp-pumped 2.1 micron Ho:Tm:Cr:YAG laser was studied for both normal mode and Q-switched operations under a wide variety of experimental conditions in order to optimize performance. Laser output energy, slope efficiency, threshold and pulselength were determined as a function of operating temperature, output mirror reflectivity, input electrical energy and Q-switch opening time. The measured normal-mode laser thresholds of a Ho(3+) (0.45 atomic percent):Tm(3+) (2.5 atomic percent):Cr(3+) (0.8 atomic percent):YAG crystal ranged form 26 to 50 J between 120 and 200 K with slope efficiencies up to 0.36 percent with a 60 percent reflective output mirror. Under Q-switched operation the slope efficiency was 90 percent of the normal-mode result. Development of solid state lasers with Ho(3+), Tm(3+) and/or Er(3+) doped crystals has been pursued by NASA for eye-dafe mid-infrared LIDAR (light detection and ranging) application. As a part of the project, the authors have been working on evaluating Ho(3+):Tm(3+):Cr(3+):YAG crystals for normal-mode and Q-switched 2.1 micron laser operations in order to determine an optimum Tm(3+) concentration under flashlamp pumping conditions. Lasing properties of the Ho(3+) in the mid-infrared region have been studied by many research groups since the early 1960's. However, the technology of those lasers is still premature for lidar application. In order to overcome the inefficiency related to narrow absorption bands of the Ho(3+), Tm(3+) and Er(3+), the erbium has been replaced by chromium. The improvement in flashlamp-pumped Ho(3+) laser efficiency has been demonstrated recently by several research groups by utilizing the broad absorption spectrum of Cr(3+) which covers the flashlamp's emission spectrum. Efficient energy transfer to the Tm(3+) and then the Ho(3+) occurs subsequently. It is known that high Tm(3+) concentration and low Ho(3+) concentration are preferred to achieve a quantum efficiency approaching two and to avoid large reabsorption losses. However, determination of the optimum Tm(3+) concentration required to ensure efficient energy transfer from Cr(3+) to Tm(3+) and from Tm(3+) to Ho(3+) has not been made in the Ho:Tm:CR:YAG crystal. The results obtained so far are given.

Choi, Young S.↗

Performance portable ice-sheet modeling with MALI

High-resolution simulations of polar ice sheets play a crucial role in the ongoing effort to develop more accurate and reliable Earth system models for probabilistic sea-level projections. These simulations often require a massive amount of memory and computation from large supercomputing clusters to provide sufficient accuracy and resolution; therefore, it has become essential to ensure performance on these platforms. Many of today’s supercomputers contain a diverse set of computing architectures and require specific programming interfaces in order to obtain optimal efficiency. In an effort to avoid architecture-specific programming and maintain productivity across platforms, the ice-sheet modeling code known as MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) uses high-level abstractions to integrate Trilinos libraries and the Kokkos programming model for performance portable code across a variety of different architectures. In this article, we analyze the performance portable features of MALI via a performance analysis on current CPU-based and GPU-based supercomputers. The analysis highlights not only the performance portable improvements made in finite element assembly and multigrid preconditioning within MALI with speedups between 1.26 and 1.82x across CPU and GPU architectures but also identifies the need to further improve performance in software coupling and preconditioning on GPUs. We perform a weak scalability study and show that simulations on GPU-based machines perform 1.24–1.92x faster when utilizing the GPUs. The best performance is found in finite element assembly, which achieved a speedup of up to 8.65x and a weak scaling efficiency of 82.6% with GPUs. We additionally describe an automated performance testing framework developed for this code base using a changepoint detection method. The framework is used to make actionable decisions about performance within MALI. We provide several concrete examples of scenarios in which the framework has identified performance regressions, improvements, and algorithm differences over the course of 2 years of development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Airport Traffic Conflict Detection and Resolution Algorithm Evaluation

Two conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) algorithms for the terminal maneuvering area (TMA) were evaluated in a fast-time batch simulation study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center. One CD&R algorithm, developed at NASA, was designed to enhance surface situation awareness and provide cockpit alerts of potential conflicts during runway, taxi, and low altitude air-to-air operations. The second algorithm, Enhanced Traffic Situation Awareness on the Airport Surface with Indications and Alerts (SURF IA), was designed to increase flight crew awareness of the runway environment and facilitate an appropriate and timely response to potential conflict situations. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the performance of the aircraft-based CD&R algorithms during various runway, taxiway, and low altitude scenarios, multiple levels of CD&R system equipage, and various levels of horizontal position accuracy. Algorithm performance was assessed through various metrics including the collision rate, nuisance and missed alert rate, and alert toggling rate. The data suggests that, in general, alert toggling, nuisance and missed alerts, and unnecessary maneuvering occurred more frequently as the position accuracy was reduced. Collision avoidance was more effective when all of the aircraft were equipped with CD&R and maneuvered to avoid a collision after an alert was issued. In order to reduce the number of unwanted (nuisance) alerts when taxiing across a runway, a buffer is needed between the hold line and the alerting zone so alerts are not generated when an aircraft is behind the hold line. All of the results support RTCA horizontal position accuracy requirements for performing a CD&R function to reduce the likelihood and severity of runway incursions and collisions.

Jones, Denise R.↗

Parallel multiple-chain DRAM MCMC for large-scale geosteering inversion and uncertainty quantification

Geosteering is the proactive control of a wellbore placement based on the downhole measurements, aiming at maximizing economic production from the well. We report the recent development of azimuthal resistivity logging-whiledrilling (LWD) tools have a much larger depth of detection, thus sets higher demands for geosteering inversion as more unknown parameters need to be taken into account in the earth model to be inverted. For complicated nonlinear problems, traditional deterministic inversion methods are more likely to be trapped near local optima. In general, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion methods are more capable of finding the global optimal solution and providing additional uncertainty analyses by sampling from the target distribution. However, MCMC methods usually have the problem of slow convergence. Even though optimization methods like delayed rejection (DR) and adaptive Metropolis (AM) were proposed to speed up the convergence, using MCMC methods to solve geosteering inversion problems may still incur unacceptable time cost. To reduce the sampling cost of MCMC methods, we use parallel multiple-chain DRAM MCMC methods to solve geosteering inverse problems and estimate the corresponding uncertainty. A clustering method, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), is applied to select the best solution among many results. Lastly, the simulation results show that running many relatively short MCMC chains for one problem can obtain a similar result as running a long single chain. Besides, avoiding communications between multiple Markov chains during the sampling process yields almost linear scalability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Oxidative stress/reactive metabolite gene expression signature in rat liver detects idiosyncratic hepatotoxicants

Previously we reported a gene expression signature in rat liver for detecting a specific type of oxidative stress (OS) related to reactive metabolites (RM). High doses of the drugs disulfiram, ethinyl estradiol and nimesulide were used with another dozen paradigm OS/RM compounds, and three other drugs flutamide, phenacetin and sulindac were identified by this signature. In a second study, antiepileptic drugs were compared for covalent binding and their effects on OS/RM; felbamate, carbamazepine, and phenobarbital produced robust OS/RM gene expression. In the present study, liver RNA samples from drug-treated rats from more recent experiments were examined for statistical fit to the OS/RM signature. Of all 97 drugs examined, in addition to the nine drugs noted above, 19 more were identified as OS/RM-producing compounds—chlorpromazine, clozapine, cyproterone acetate, dantrolene, dipyridamole, glibenclamide, isoniazid, ketoconazole, methapyrilene, naltrexone, nifedipine, sulfamethoxazole, tamoxifen, coumarin, ritonavir, amitriptyline, valproic acid, enalapril, and chloramphenicol. Importantly, all of the OS/RM drugs listed above have been linked to idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity, excepting chloramphenicol, which does not have a package label for hepatotoxicity, but does have a black box warning for idiosyncratic bone marrow suppression. Most of these drugs are not acutely toxic in the rat. The OS/RM signature should be useful to avoid idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity of drug candidates. - Highlights: • 28 of 97 drugs gave a positive OS/RM gene expression signature in rat liver. • The specificity of the signature for human idiosyncratic hepatotoxicants was 98%. • The sensitivity of the signature for human idiosyncratic hepatotoxicants was 75%. • The signature can help eliminate hepatotoxicants from drug development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Automated Lane Centering: An Off-the-Shelf Computer Vision Product vs. Infrastructure-Based Chip-Enabled Raised Pavement Markers

Safe autonomous vehicle (AV) operations depend on an accurate perception of the driving environment, which necessitates the use of a variety of sensors. Computational algorithms must then process all of this sensor data, which typically results in a high on-vehicle computational load. For example, existing lane markings are designed for human drivers, can fade over time, and can be contradictory in construction zones, which require specialized sensing and computational processing in an AV. But, this standard process can be avoided if the lane information is simply transmitted directly to the AV. High definition maps and road side units (RSUs) can be used for direct data transmission to the AV, but can be prohibitively expensive to establish and maintain. Additionally, to ensure robust and safe AV operations, more redundancy is beneficial. A cost-effective and passive solution is essential to address this need effectively. In this research, we propose a new infrastructure information source (IIS), chip-enabled raised pavement markers (CERPMs), which provide environmental data to the AV while also decreasing the AV compute load and the associated increase in vehicle energy use. CERPMs are installed in place of traditional ubiquitous raised pavement markers along road lane lines to transmit geospatial information along with the speed limit using long range wide area network (LoRaWAN) protocol directly to nearby vehicles. This information is then compared to the Mobileye commercial off-the-shelf traditional system that uses computer vision processing of lane markings. Our perception subsystem processes the raw data from both CEPRMs and Mobileye to generate a viable path required for a lane centering (LC) application. To evaluate the detection performance of both systems, we consider three test routes with varying conditions. Our results show that the Mobileye system failed to detect lane markings when the road curvature exceeded ±0.016 m -1 . For the steep curvature test scenario, it could only detect lane markings on both sides of the road for just 6.7% of the given test route. On the other hand, the CERPMs transmit the programmed geospatial information to the perception subsystem on the vehicle to generate a reference trajectory required for vehicle control. The CERPMs successfully generated the reference trajectory for vehicle control in all test scenarios. Moreover, the CERPMs can be detected up to 340 m from the vehicle’s position. Our overall conclusion is that CERPM technology is viable and that it has the potential to address the operational robustness and energy efficiency concerns plaguing the current generation of AVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Measuring the cosmological 21 cm monopole with an interferometer

A measurement of the cosmological 21 cm signal remains a promising but as-of-yet unattained ambition of radio astronomy. A positive detection would provide direct observations of key unexplored epochs of our cosmic history, including the cosmic dark ages and reionization. In this paper, we concentrate on measurements of the spatial monopole of the 21 cm brightness temperature as a function of redshift (the “global signal”). Most global experiments to date have been single-element experiments. In this paper, we show how an interferometer can be designed to be sensitive to the monopole mode of the sky, thus providing an alternate approach to accessing the global signature. We provide simple rules of thumb for designing a global signal interferometer and use numerical simulations to show that a modest array of tightly packed antenna elements with moderately sized primary beams (FWHM of ∼40{sup ∘}) can compete with typical single-element experiments in their ability to constrain phenomenological parameters pertaining to reionization and the pre-reionization era. We also provide a general data analysis framework for extracting the global signal from interferometric measurements (with analysis of single-element experiments arising as a special case) and discuss trade-offs with various data analysis choices. Given that interferometric measurements are able to avoid a number of systematics inherent in single-element experiments, our results suggest that interferometry ought to be explored as a complementary way to probe the global signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Imaging of moving fiducial markers during radiotherapy using a fast, efficient active pixel sensor based EPID

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to investigate the use of an experimental complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) active pixel sensor (APS) for tracking of moving fiducial markers during radiotherapy. Methods: The APS has an active area of 5.4 x 5.4 cm and maximum full frame read-out rate of 20 frame s{sup -1}, with the option to read out a region-of-interest (ROI) at an increased rate. It was coupled to a 4 mm thick ZnWO4 scintillator which provided a quantum efficiency (QE) of 8% for a 6 MV x-ray treatment beam. The APS was compared with a standard iViewGT flat panel amorphous Silicon (a-Si) electronic portal imaging device (EPID), with a QE of 0.34% and a frame-rate of 2.5 frame s{sup -1}. To investigate the ability of the two systems to image markers, four gold cylinders of length 8 mm and diameter 0.8, 1.2, 1.6, and 2 mm were placed on a motion-platform. Images of the stationary markers were acquired using the APS at a frame-rate of 20 frame s{sup -1}, and a dose-rate of 143 MU min{sup -1} to avoid saturation. EPID images were acquired at the maximum frame-rate of 2.5 frame s{sup -1}, and a reduced dose-rate of 19 MU min{sup -1} to provide a similar dose per frame to the APS. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the background signal and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of the marker signal relative to the background were evaluated for both imagers at doses of 0.125 to 2 MU. Results: Image quality and marker visibility was found to be greater in the APS with SNR {approx}5 times greater than in the EPID and CNR up to an order of magnitude greater for all four markers. To investigate the ability to image and track moving markers the motion-platform was moved to simulate a breathing cycle with period 6 s, amplitude 20 mm and maximum speed 13.2 mm s{sup -1}. At the minimum integration time of 50 ms a tracking algorithm applied to the APS data found all four markers with a success rate of {>=}92% and positional error {<=}90 {mu}m. At an integration time of 400 ms the smallest marker became difficult to detect when moving. The detection of moving markers using the a-Si EPID was difficult even at the maximum dose-rate of 592 MU min{sup -1} due to the lower QE and longer integration time of 400 ms. Conclusions: This work demonstrates that a fast read-out, high QE APS may be useful in the tracking of moving fiducial markers during radiotherapy. Further study is required to investigate the tracking of markers moving in 3D in a treatment beam attenuated by moving patient anatomy. This will require a larger sensor with ROI read-out to maintain speed and a manageable data-rate.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Controlling superstructural ordering in the clathrate-I Ba 8 M 16 P 30 (M = Cu, Zn) through the formation of metal–metal bonds

Order–disorder–order phase transitions in the clathrate-I Ba 8 Cu 16 P 30 were induced and controlled by aliovalent substitutions of Zn into the framework. Unaltered Ba 8 Cu 16 P 30 crystallizes in an ordered orthorhombic ( Pbcn ) clathrate-I superstructure that maintains complete segregation of metal and phosphorus atoms over 23 different crystallographic positions in the clathrate framework. The driving force for the formation of this Pbcn superstructure is the avoidance of Cu–Cu bonds. This superstructure is preserved upon aliovalent substitution of Zn for Cu in Ba 8 Cu 16– x Zn x P 30 with 0 < x < 1.6 (10% Zn/M total ), but vanishes at greater substitution concentrations. Higher Zn concentrations (up to 35% Zn/M total ) resulted in the additional substitution of Zn for P in Ba 8 M 16+ y P 30– y (M = Cu, Zn) with 0 ≤ y ≤ 1. This causes the formation of Cu–Zn bonds in the framework, leading to a collapse of the orthorhombic superstructure into the more common cubic subcell of clathrate-I ( Pm n ). In the resulting cubic phases, each clathrate framework position is jointly occupied by three different elements: Cu, Zn, and P. Detailed structural characterization of the Ba–Cu–Zn–P clathrates-I via single crystal X-ray diffraction, joint synchrotron X-ray and neutron powder diffractions, pair distribution function analysis, electron diffraction and high-resolution electron microscopy, along with elemental analysis, indicates that local ordering is present in the cubic clathrate framework, suggesting the evolution of Cu–Zn bonds. For the compounds with the highest Zn content, a disorder–order transformation is detected due to the formation of another superstructure with trigonal symmetry and Cu–Zn bonds in the clathrate-I framework. It is shown that small changes in the composition, synthesis, and crystal structure have significant impacts on the structural and transport properties of Zn-substituted Ba 8 Cu 16 P 30 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Curation of Ground-Truth Validated Benchmarking Datasets for Fault Detection & Diagnostics Tools

Fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) analytical tools for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems represent one of the most active areas of smart building technology development. A diversity of techniques is used for FDD analytics, spanning physical models, black box, and rule-based approaches, and researchers continuously strive to develop improved algorithms. With FDD algorithm numbers now in the hundreds, there is a need for performance evaluation of these algorithms in order to assess improvements, improve costeffectiveness, and to prioritize investment in the further development of these technologies. A persistent challenge of FDD advance has been the lack of common datasets to benchmark the performance accuracy of FDD algorithms. This paper summarizes the successful curation of HVAC operational data, paired with validated ground-truth information regarding the presence and absence of faults. The current dataset, consisting of both simulation and experimental data, will evolve to include a larger set of HVAC systems with the objective of creating the largest publicly available dataset to be used by FDD developers, users, and researchers to compare and contrast performance accuracy across FDD algorithms, helping to drive improvements that will spur greater market adoption of FDD tools. Furthermore, in order to avoid previously observed issues with contributed datasets and ensure high quality and consistency of future submissions, the development of data validation and ground-truth assessment protocol is detailed in this study.

Casillas, Armando↗

Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens

1. We investigated the impacts of wind power development on the demography, movements, and population genetics of Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) at three sites in northcentral and eastern Kansas for a 7-year period. Only 1 of 3 sites was developed for wind power, the 201MW Meridan Way Wind Power Facility at the Smoky Hills site in northcentral Kansas. Our project report is based on population data for prairie chickens collected during a 2-year preconstruction period (2007-2008), a 3-year postconstruction period (2009-2011) and one final year of lek surveys (2012). Where relevant, we present preconstruction data from our field studies at reference sites in the northern Flint Hills (2007-2009) and southern Flint Hills (2006-2008). 2. We addressed seven potential impacts of wind power development on prairie chickens: lek attendance, mating behavior, use of breeding habitat, fecundity rates, natal dispersal, survival rates, and population numbers. Our analyses of pre- and postconstruction impacts are based on an analysis of covariance design where we modeled population performance as a function of treatment period, distance to eventual or actual site of the nearest wind turbine, and the interaction of these factors. Our demographic and movement data from the 6-year study period at the Smoky Hills site included 23 lek sites, 251 radio-marked females monitored for 287 bird-years, and 264 nesting attempts. Our genetic data were based on genotypes of 1,760 females, males and chicks that were screened with a set of 27 microsatellite markers that were optimized in the lab. 3. In our analyses of lek attendance, the annual probability of lek persistence during the preconstruction period was ~0.9. During the postconstruction period, distance to nearest turbine did not have a significant effect on the probability of lek persistence. However, the probability of lek persistence increased from 0.69 at 0 m to 0.89 at 30 km from turbines, and most abandoned lek sites were located <5 km from turbines. Probability of lek persistence was significantly related to habitat and number of males. Leks had a higher probability of persistence in grasslands than agricultural fields, and increased from ~0.2 for leks of 5 males, to >0.9 for leks of 10 or more males. Large leks in grasslands should be a higher priority for conservation. Overall, wind power development had a weak effect on the annual probability of lek persistence. 3. We used molecular methods to investigate the mating behavior of prairie chickens. The prevailing view for lek-mating grouse is that females mate once to fertilize the clutch and that conspecific nest parasitism is rare. We found evidence that females mate multiple times to fertilize the clutch (8-18% of broods, 4-38% of chicks) and will parasitize nests of other females during egg-laying (~17% of nests). Variable rates of parentage were highest in the fragmented landscapes at the Smoky Hills field site, and were lower at the Flint Hills field site. Comparisons of the pre- and postconstruction periods showed that wind energy development did not affect the mating behaviors of prairie chickens. 4. We examined use of breeding habitats by radio-marked females and conducted separate analyses for nest site selection, and movements of females not attending nests or broods. The landscape was a mix of native prairie and agricultural habitats, and nest site selection was not random because females preferred to nest in grasslands. Nests tended to be closer to turbines during the postconstruction period and there was no evidence of behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during nest site selection. Movements of females not attending nests or broods showed that females crossed the site of the wind power development at higher rates during the preconstruction period (20%) than the postconstruction period (11%), and that movements away from turbines were more frequent during the postconstruction period. Thus, wind power development appears to affect movements in breeding habitats but not nest site selection of female prairie chickens during the breeding season. 5. We tested the effects of wind power development on five components of female fecundity: timing of clutch initiation, clutch size of first nests and renests, nest survival, and hatchability of eggs. Average date of clutch initiation was 26 April, clutch size was 12.7 and 10.6 eggs for first nests and renests, probability of nest survival was low at 0.18, but egg hatchability was high at 0.79. Wind power development had no impact on reproductive effort or nesting success, and all five components of fecundity were not related to treatment period or distance to turbine. Nest survival was the main factor limiting reproductive output of female prairie chickens and most losses were due to predation. Daily nest survival was strongly related to vegetative cover at the nest. Changes to rangeland management practices that would double nesting cover from 2.5 to 5 dm would triple the probability of nest survival from 0.17 to 0.52. Grass and forb cover had weak positive effects on daily nest survival whereas shrub cover, proximity to woodlands, and recent rainfall had negative effects. Reproductive performance of prairie chickens is low in managed rangelands in northcentral Kansas and efforts to improve range conditions and reduce predator activity would aid recovery of prairie chicken populations. 6. We used molecular methods to investigate patterns of natal dispersal in prairie chickens. High rates of nest failure limited the number of young that we could sample. Direct detections of natal dispersal were limited because survival of newly hatched chicks to become adults were low and because we were unable to detect dispersal distances outside of our study area. Direct observations of natal movements were limited and were inadequate to make conclusions about the potential impacts of wind energy development on natal dispersal. Spatial correlograms of genetic distance among males at leks were a more sensitive measure of population structure, and indicated a weak effect of wind energy development on the spatial genetic structure of prairie chickens. 7. We tested the effects of wind power development on female survival with time-to-event models, and on residual body mass of males with analyses of covariance. Distance to turbine and the interaction of distance and treatment period had no effect on female survival. Contrary to predictions of negative impacts of wind power development, the probability of female was lowest during the preconstruction period (0.274) and increased significantly during the postconstruction period (0.543). Inspection of hazard functions indicated that the difference in annual survival could be attributed to a higher risk of mortality during the lekking season in the preconstruction period. We suggest that wind power development may have improved ecological conditions for prairie chickens by disrupting the foraging behavior of diurnal raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek sites. In support of this idea, raptor kills tended to be farther from turbines during the postconstruction period whereas mammalian kills were closer. Analyses of the major causes of mortality did not support our hypothesis because the odds of raptor predation were greater after development was completed. Most mortality losses of radio-marked females were due to predation, and losses to collision mortality or harvest were rare events. Low rates of natural mortality during fall and winter imply that harvest is likely to be additive mortality in prairie chickens. Wind energy development reduced the residual body mass of male Greater Prairie-Chickens at lek sites near turbines. Low values of residual body mass could have a negative impact on individual survival or fecundity rates, or may be related to predation risk and flight performance of males displaying at open lek sites. 8. We tested for impacts of wind power development on population numbers of prairie chickens with monitoring of male numbers at leks, and with genetic measures of population structure. Lek counts indicated that wind power development did not affect the population size of prairie chickens. Peak counts of males at leks were recorded the first year after construction was completed and the highest rates of population change were observed during the interval when the wind power facility was constructed. Population numbers of prairie chickens near and distant from turbines appeared to covary in parallel, probably because bird numbers were linked by dispersal movements. Estimates of population viability based on genetic diversity, effective population size and rates of population exchange did not show annual changes and were unaffected by wind development during our study. Estimates of relatedness among males at the same and different leks suggested that wind power development has either reduced dispersal rates or changed settlement patterns, leading to higher rates of relatedness among males displaying at the same lek site. 9. Greater Prairie-Chickens were not strongly affected by wind power development in Kansas. Negative impacts of wind power development included a trend for reductions in lek persistence near turbines, behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during their breeding season movements, and changes in the genetic structure of males at leks that were consistent with reduced dispersal or recruitment rates. We found no impacts of wind power development on nest site selection, female reproductive effort or nesting success, or population numbers. Positive impacts of wind power development included an increase in female survival rates. We hypothesized that the unexpected increase in female survival was related to changes in trophic interactions and disruption of the foraging behavior of raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek site. 10. Research funding for this project included a grant from the 20% Wind by 2030 Program of the Department of Energy (this final report), and grants from the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism, the National Fish and Wildlife Federation, and initial funding from the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative. Research products from data collected during the preconstruction period have included five peer-reviewed research articles and two PhD dissertations at Kansas State University. Additional manuscripts are in review for possible publication in 2013-2014.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High Resolution Terrain Sensing Lidar for Precision Navigation and Safe Landing of Space and Aerial Vehicles

A 3-D imaging flash lidar sensor employing a resolution enhancement algorithm is being developed at NASA Langley Research Center for providing Terrain Relative Navigation and Hazard Avoidance capabilities onboard spacecraft landing on the Moon, Mars, and other planetary bodies. This lidar sensor, we refer to as Terrain Sensing Lidar (TSL), is a solution for future missions that require landing at pre-designated sites near high value resources or at areas of high scientific value, while avoiding hazardous terrain features, such as escarpments, craters, slopes, and rocks, or pre-deployed assets. TSL can also benefit terrestrial applications such as autonomous aerial vehicles without reliance on signals from Global Positioning System (GPS). The feasibility of the TSL concept has been shown through a series of drone, fixed-wing aircraft, and helicopter flight tests. A prototype version of the TSL has been recently assembled for conducting another set of flight tests to demonstrate its readiness for upcoming landing missions. This paper describes the TSL, provides its performance parameters, and explains its operational concepts for landing missions.

Precision Navigation↗

Enhancing the Optically Detected Magnetic Resonance Signal of Organic Molecular Qubits

In quantum information science and sensing, electron spins are often purified into a specific polarization through an optical-spin interface, a process known as optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR). Diamond-NV centers and transition metals are both excellent platforms for these so-called color centers, while metal-free molecular analogues are also gaining popularity for their extended polarization lifetimes, milder environmental impacts, and reduced costs. In our earlier attempt at designing such organic high-spin π-diradicals, we proposed to spin-polarize by shelving triplet M S = ±1 populations as singlets. This was recently verified by experiments albeit with low ODMR contrasts of <1% at temperatures above 5 K. In this work, we propose to improve the ODMR signal by moving singlet populations back into the triplet M S = 0 sublevel, designing a true carbon-based molecular analogue to the NV center. Our proposal is based upon transition-orbital and group-theoretical analyses of beyond-nearest-neighbor spin–orbit couplings, which are further confirmed by ab initio calculations of a realistic trityl-based radical dimer. Microkinetic analyses point toward high ODMR contrasts of around 30% under experimentally feasible conditions, a stark improvement from previous works. Finally, in our quest toward ground-state optically addressable molecular spin qubits, we exemplify how our symmetry-based design avoids Zeeman-induced singlet–triplet mixings, setting the scene for realizing electron spin qubit gates.

Group theory↗

Integration of a broad beam ion source with a high-temperature x-ray diffraction vacuum chamber

Here, the integration of a low energy, linearly variable ion beam current density, mechanically in situ adjustable broad beam ion source with a high-temperature x-ray diffraction (XRD) vacuum chamber is reported. This allows in situ XRD investigation of phase formation and evolution processes induced by low energy ion implantation. Special care has been taken to an independent adjustment of the ion beam for geometrical directing towards the substrate, a 15 mm small ion source exit aperture to avoid a secondary sputter process of the chamber walls, linearly variable ion current density by using a pulse length modulation (PLM) for the accelerating voltages without changing the ion beam density profile, nearly homogeneous ion beam distribution over the x-ray footprint, together with easily replaceable Kapton{sup Registered-Sign} windows for x-rays entry and exit. By combining a position sensitive x-ray detector with this PLM-modulated ion beam, a fast and efficient time resolved investigation of low energy implantation processes is obtained in a compact experimental setup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

THE CLUSTERING OF ALFALFA GALAXIES: DEPENDENCE ON H I MASS, RELATIONSHIP WITH OPTICAL SAMPLES, AND CLUES OF HOST HALO PROPERTIES

We use a sample of ≈6000 galaxies detected by the Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA (ALFALFA) 21 cm survey to measure the clustering properties of H I-selected galaxies. We find no convincing evidence for a dependence of clustering on galactic atomic hydrogen (H I) mass, over the range M{sub H{sub I}} ≈ 10{sup 8.5}-10{sup 10.5} M{sub ☉}. We show that previously reported results of weaker clustering for low H I mass galaxies are probably due to finite-volume effects. In addition, we compare the clustering of ALFALFA galaxies with optically selected samples drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We find that H I-selected galaxies cluster more weakly than even relatively optically faint galaxies, when no color selection is applied. Conversely, when SDSS galaxies are split based on their color, we find that the correlation function of blue optical galaxies is practically indistinguishable from that of H I-selected galaxies. At the same time, SDSS galaxies with red colors are found to cluster significantly more than H I-selected galaxies, a fact that is evident in both the projected as well as the full two-dimensional correlation function. A cross-correlation analysis further reveals that gas-rich galaxies 'avoid' being located within ≈3 Mpc of optical galaxies with red colors. Next, we consider the clustering properties of halo samples selected from the Bolshoi ΛCDM simulation. A comparison with the clustering of ALFALFA galaxies suggests that galactic H I mass is not tightly related to host halo mass and that a sizable fraction of subhalos do not host H I galaxies. Lastly, we find that we can recover fairly well the correlation function of H I galaxies by just excluding halos with low spin parameter. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that halo spin plays a key role in determining the gas content of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pulsed Lidar Performance/Technical Maturity Assessment

This report describes the results of investigations performed by the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) under a task entitled 'Pulsed Lidar Performance/Technical Maturity Assessment' funded by the Crew Systems Branch of the Airborne Systems Competency at the NASA Langley Research Center. The investigations included two tasks, 1.1(a) and 1.1(b). The Tasks discussed in this report are in support of the NASA Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) program and are designed to evaluate a pulsed lidar that will be required for active wake vortex avoidance solutions. The Coherent Technologies, Inc. (CTI) WindTracer LIDAR is an eye-safe, 2-micron, coherent, pulsed Doppler lidar with wake tracking capability. The actual performance of the WindTracer system was to be quantified. In addition, the sensor performance has been assessed and modeled, and the models have been included in simulation efforts. The WindTracer LIDAR was purchased by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for use in near-term field data collection efforts as part of a joint NASA/FAA wake vortex research program. In the joint research program, a minimum common wake and weather data collection platform will be defined. NASA Langley will use the field data to support wake model development and operational concept investigation in support of the VAMS project, where the ultimate goal is to improve airport capacity and safety. Task 1.1(a), performed by NCAR in Boulder, Colorado to analyze the lidar system to determine its performance and capabilities based on results from simulated lidar data with analytic wake vortex models provided by NASA, which were then compared to the vendor's claims for the operational specifications of the lidar. Task 1.1(a) is described in Section 3, including the vortex model, lidar parameters and simulations, and results for both detection and tracking of wake vortices generated by Boeing 737s and 747s. Task 1.1(b) was performed by GTRI in Atlanta, Georgia and is described in Section 4. Task 1.1(b) includes a description of the St. Louis Airport (STL) field test being conducted by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, and it also addresses the development of a test plan to validate simulation studies conducted as part of Task 1.1(a). Section 4.2 provides a description of the Volpe STL field tests, and Section 4.3 describes 3 possible ways to validate the WindTracer lidar simulations performed in Task 1.1(a).

Gimmestad, Gary G.↗

A real-time machine learning-based disruption predictor in DIII-D

A disruption prediction algorithm, named DPRF (Disruption Prediction using Random Forests), has run in real-time in the DIII-D plasma control system (PCS) over more than 900 discharges. DPRF naturally provides a probability mapping associated to its predictions, i.e. the disruptivity signal, now incorporated in the DIII-D PCS. Here, we report on disruption prediction accomplishments in terms of shot-by-shot performances, by simulating alarms on each discharge as in the PCS framework. Due to the optimised performance metric chosen to evaluate DPRF, we find that almost all disruptive discharges are detected in average with few hundred of milliseconds of warning time, but this comes at a high cost of false alarms produced. Performances are not satisfying ITER requirements, where the success rate has to be higher than 95%, but this is not completely unexpected. DPRF is trained on many years of major disruptions occurring during the flattop phase of the plasma current on DIII-D, but without any differentiation by cause. Furthermore, we find that DPRF is affected by a relatively high fraction of false alarms occurring during the first 500 milliseconds from the flattop onset. This subtle effect, more evident on the discharges where DPRF ran in real-time, can be marginalized by taking specific precautions on the validity range of the predictions, and performances do improve. Even if presently burdened by some limitations, DPRF provides an incredible and novel advantage. Thanks to the feature contribution analysis (e.g., the identification of which signals contributed to triggering an alarm), it is possible to interpret and explain DPRF predictions. It is the first time that such interpretability features is exploited by a disruption predictor: by uncovering the disruption events' causes, a better understanding of disruption dynamics is achieved, and a clear path toward the design of disruption avoidance strategies can be provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗