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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Simulating county-level crop yields in the Conterminous United States using the Community Land Model: The effects of optimizing irrigation and fertilization

Representing agricultural systems explicitly in Earth system models is important for understanding the water-energy-food nexus under climate change. In this study, we applied Version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM) at a 0.125 degree resolution to provide the first county-scale validation of the model in simulating crop yields over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). We focused on corn and soybean that are both important grain crops and biofuel feedstocks (corn for bioethanol; soybean for biodiesel). We find that the default model substantially under- or over-estimate yields of corn and soybean as compared to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) census data, with corresponding county-level root-mean square error (RMSE) of 45.3 Bu/acre and 12.9 Bu/acre, or 42% and 38% of the US mean yields for these crops, respectively. Based on the numerical experiments, the lack of proper representation of agricultural management practices, such as irrigation and fertilization, was identified as a major cause for the model's poor performance. After implementing an irrigation management scheme calibrated against county-level US Geological Survey (USGS) census data, the county-level RMSE for corn yields reduced to 42.6 Bu/acre. We then incorporated an optimized fertilizer scheme in rate and timing, which is achieved by the constraining annual total fertilizer amount against the USDA data, considering the dynamics between fertilizer demand and supply and adopting a calibrated fertilizer scheduling map. The proposed approach is shown to be effective in increasing the fertilizer use efficiency for corn yields, with county-level RMSE reduced to 23.8 Bu/acre (or 22% of the US mean yield). In regions with similar annual fertilizer applied as in the default, the improvements in corn yield simulations are mainly attributed to application of longer fertilization periods and consideration of the dynamics between fertilizer demand and supply. For soybean which is capable of fixing nitrogen to meet nitrogen demand, the reduced positive bias to 6.9 Bu/acre (or 21% of the country mean) was mainly attributed to consideration of the dynamic interactions between fertilizer demand and supply. Although large bias remains in terms of the spatial pattern (i.e. high county-level RMSE), mainly due to limited performance over the Western US, our results show that optimizing irrigation and fertilization can lead to promising improvement in crop and soybean yield simulations in terms of the mean and variability especially over the Mid-west corn belt, and subsequent evapotranspiration (ET) estimates. Finally, this study demonstrates the CLM4.5 capability for predicting crop yields and their interactions with climate, and highlights the value of continued model improvements and development to understand biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of land use and land cover change using an Earth system modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, in this work we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variability of near-fault seismic risk to reinforced concrete buildings based on high-resolution physics-based ground motion simulations

Broadband physics-based simulated earthquake ground motions are utilized to characterize the regional-scale seismic risk to modern reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A highly dense dataset of ground motions covering a 100-km urn:x-wiley:00988847:media:eqe3413:eqe3413-math-0001 40-km domain was generated using kinematic fault rupture models with varying rupture characteristics to represent shallow crustal earthquakes and resolved up to frequencies of 5 Hz. Over 40,000 nonlinear response history simulations of short- and mid-rise RC special moment frame buildings were conducted using simulation models that are capable of representing nonlinear behavior and component deterioration effects. The spatial variability of structural risk within a single earthquake scenario and between different rupture scenarios is examined, and the regions of strongest directivity effects and highest structural demands are identified. The structural demands may vary by factor of up to 8.0 at very short distances from the fault, and the large dispersion in the demands decreases significantly beyond a distance of 15 km. The interstory drift and member rotation demands are substantially impacted by important features of the geological structure and the characteristics of the rupture scenarios, particularly the presence of localized high-slip regions. The frequency characteristics of the structures are found to play an important role in determining the effects of near-fault ground motions on the structural response and expected damage. The results of this study suggest that the simulated ground motions, particularly those generated using the hybrid rupture approach, may offer reasonable structural risk estimates for low-frequency structures and conservative estimates for high-frequency structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Partitioning Stakeholders for the Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Examples of a Mangrove System

Although the importance of ecosystem services provided by natural forests, especially mangroves, is well known, the destruction of these environments is still ubiquitous and therefore protection measures are urgently needed. The present study compares the current approach of economic valuation of ecosystem services to a proposed one, using a study case of a mangrove system as an example. We suggest that a cost-benefit analysis for economically valuing environmental services should be performed with three additional modifications consisting of (i) a categorization of local stakeholders as demanders of particular ecosystem services, (ii) acknowledgement of the government as one of these demander groups, and (iii) the inclusion of opportunity costs in the valuation. The application of this approach to the mangrove area in the east portion of Great Abaco Island, the Bahamas, reveals that not only the ecosystem services received differ between demander groups, but the monetary benefits and costs are also specific to each of these groups. We show that the economic valuation of the ecosystem should be differentiated for each category, instead of being calculated as a net ‘societal value’ as it is currently. Applying this categorization of demanders enables a better understanding of the cost and benefit structure of the protection of a natural area. The present paper aims to facilitate discussions regarding benefit and cost sharing related to the protection of natural areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring urban typologies using comprehensive analysis of transportation dynamics

Abstract As urban areas continue to expand and develop, categorizing cities into typologies offers a valuable framework for understanding metropolitan dynamics and fostering inter-city collaboration. However, existing typologies related to urban mobility have limitations, failing to consider cities within a single large urban region and often overlooking crucial dimensions such as trip demand and traffic flow. In this paper, we introduce a transportation-focused characterization for cities within a large urban region, specifically the San Francisco Bay Area, California. We incorporate over 40 metrics across five transportation dimensions: trip demand, road network, multi-modal network, traffic flow, and land use. Specifically, for the trip demand dimension, we include metrics capturing residents’ trip characteristics, such as mode share, intra-city trips, and inter-city trips. Additionally, we analyze the purpose of trips entering the city to gain a deeper understanding of incoming trip patterns. In the traffic flow dimension, we examine metrics like vehicle miles traveled, delay, and congestion to assess the traffic conditions on the street network. These, combined with other dimensions, provide a comprehensive view of a city’s transportation dynamics. Using unsupervised machine learning clustering methods, we identified eight distinct typologies for the Bay Area: Live Work Cities; Job and Activity Magnet Cities; Anchor Cities; Multi-modal Cities; Hyper-connected Cities; Low-density Residential Cities; Medium-density Residential Cities; and Mixed-use Residential Cities. Our findings show that many clusters are strongly influenced by trip demand and traffic flow metrics. Finally, we examine the practicality of this typology and its potential to guide collaborative transportation management strategies. The typologies provide a foundation for dialogue among Bay Area cities, focusing on evaluating shared characteristics and leveraging successes or challenges to develop unified strategies for transportation management.

Kuncheria, Anu↗

Energy flexibility of residential buildings: A systematic review of characterization and quantification methods and applications

With building electric demand becoming increasingly dynamic, and a growing percentage of intermittent renewable power generation from solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, the power grid is facing increasing challenge to manage the real time balance between the supply and demand. With advancements in smart sensing and metering, smart appliances, electric vehicles, and energy storage technologies, demand side management of residential buildings can help the grid to improve stability by optimizing flexible loads. This paper reviews recent studies on residential building demand side management, with a focus on characterization and quantification of energy flexibility covering various types of flexible loads, metrics, methods, and applications. The reviewed studies showed four levels of applications: building level (45%), district or community level (29%), system level (19%), and building sector level (7%). Shifting loads is the dominant flexibility type in 60% of applications, followed by shedding (19%), generation (16%), and modulating (6%). Depending on the technology and application scope, flexible operations have a wide range of performance, with peak power reductions of 1%~65%, energy savings up to 60%, operational cost reduction of 1%~48%, and greenhouse gas emission reductions of up to29%. More than half (51%) of the studies employed control strategies to achieve flexibility; among those 72% used optimal controls, while 28% used rule-based controls. About 58% of the studies used mathematical formulation to quantify energy flexibility. Most studies were based on simulation, while less than 15% of the studies had measurements from experiments or field tests. The review reveals research opportunities to address significant gaps in the existing literature: (1) establishing a common definition and performance metrics for energy flexibility of buildings that are technology and application agnostic, (2) developing an ontology to standardize representation of flexibility resources for interoperability, (3) integrating occupant impacts into the quantification and optimization of energy flexibility, and (4) developing requirements and credits of energy flexibility in building energy codes and standards. Findings from the review can inform future research and development of energy flexible buildings which are essential to a reliable and resilient power grid.

Li, H↗

Integrated Modeling Approach for Optimal Management of Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus

We report that water, energy and food (WEF) are inextricably interrelated. Effective planning and management of limited WEF resources to meet current and future socioeconomic demands for sustainable development is challenging. WEF production/delivery may also produce environmental impacts; as a result, green-house-gas emission control will impact WEF nexus management as well. Nexus management for WEF security necessitates integrated tools for predictive analysis that are capable of identifying the tradeoffs among various sectors, generating cost-effective planning and management strategies and policies. To address these needs, we have developed an integrated model analysis framework and tool called WEFO. WEFO provides a multi-period socioeconomic model for predicting how to satisfy WEF demands based on model inputs representing productions costs, socioeconomic demands, and environmental controls. WEFO is applied to quantitatively analyze the interrelationships and trade-offs among system components including energy supply, electricity generation, water supply-demand, food production as well as mitigation of environmental impacts. WEFO is demonstrated to solve a hypothetical nexus management problem consistent with real-world management scenarios. Model parameters are analyzed using global sensitivity analysis and their effects on total system cost are quantified. Lastly, the obtained results demonstrate how these types of analyses can be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders to make cost-effective decisions for optimal WEF management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Technology solutions to mitigate electricity cost for electric vehicle DC fast charging

Widespread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles is being hindered by high vehicle costs and refueling or range limitations. For plug-in electric vehicles, direct-current fast charging (DCFC) is proposed as a solution to support long-distance travel and relieve range anxiety. However, DCFC has also been shown to be potentially more expensive compared to residential or workplace charging. In particular, electricity demand charges can significantly impact electricity cost for fast charging applications. Here we explore technological solutions that can help reduce the electricity cost for electric vehicle fast charging. In particular, we consider thousands of electricity rates available in the United States and real-world vehicle charging load scenarios to assess opportunities to reduce the cost of DCFC by deploying solar photovoltaics (PV) panels and energy storage (battery), and implementing a co-location configuration where a DCFC station is connected to an existing meter within a commercial building. Results show that while the median electricity cost across more than 7000 commercial retail rates remains less than $0.20/kWh for all charging load scenarios considered, cost varies greatly, and some locations do experience significantly higher electricity cost. Co-location is almost always economically viable to mitigate fixed cost and demand charges, but the relative benefit of co-locating diminishes as station size and utilization increase. Energy storage alone can help mitigate demand charges and is more effective at reducing costs for 'peaky' or low-utilization loads. On the other hand, PV systems primarily help mitigate energy charges, and are more effective for loads that are more correlated with solar production, even in areas with lower solar resource. PV and energy storage can deploy synergistically to provide cost reductions for DCFC, leveraging their ability to mitigate demand and energy charges.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Economic analysis of a nuclear hybrid energy system in a stochastic environment including wind turbines in an electricity grid

The electricity market in the U.S. is moving toward an energy mix including more variable renewable energy (VRE) sources like wind and solar. This increasing VRE penetration is altering the profile of the net electricity demand. Normally, flexible generators (e.g. gas turbines) are used to absorb fluctuations in the electricity demand. Therefore, an increase in VRE also leads to an increase in installed capacity for such flexible generators which, in turn, may increase the price of electricity. Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-R HES) are seen as a solution to this problem. The N-R HES contains a nuclear power plant electrically and/or thermally linked to an industrial process (IP). This paper demonstrates a new methodology and presents the corresponding RAVEN/Modelica-based software framework to evaluate the financial performance of N-R HES. The novelty of the method is that it explicitly incorporates the stochastic nature of N-R HES inputs such as electricity demand and wind speeds. The method is applied to a generic (rather than region-specific) N-R HES. The analysis shows that under the right market conditions, economic benefits can be achieved by adding a suitable IP to the base-load generator. In particular, there exists an optimal relationship between the IP capacity and the demand. Furthermore, global trends indicate VRE penetration raises the cost of electricity due to the added volatility, an issue only mitigated when operating with high profit margins for the IP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Ten questions concerning reinforcement learning for building energy management

As buildings account for approximately 40% of global energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions, their role in decarbonizing the power grid is crucial. The increased integration of variable energy sources, such as renewables, introduces uncertainties and unprecedented flexibilities, necessitating buildings to adapt their energy demand to enhance grid resiliency. Consequently, buildings must transition from passive energy consumers to active grid assets, providing demand flexibility and energy elasticity while maintaining occupant comfort and health. This fundamental shift demands advanced optimal control methods to manage escalating energy demand and avert power outages. Reinforcement learning (RL) emerges as a promising method to address these challenges. Here, in this paper, we explore ten questions related to the application of RL in buildings, specifically targeting flexible energy management. We consider the growing availability of data, advancements in machine learning algorithms, open-source tools, and the practical deployment aspects associated with software and hardware requirements. Our objective is to deliver a comprehensive introduction to RL, present an overview of existing research and accomplishments, underscore the challenges and opportunities, and propose potential future research directions to expedite the adoption of RL for building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cyclic moisture reactivation of calcium sorbents for long duration thermochemical energy storage

The transition to a flexible and reliable energy infrastructure, using electro-thermal energy generation technologies such as geothermal, concentrated solar power, and nuclear, usually demands simultaneous advancement of thermal energy storage (TES) to support on-demand electricity generation and industrial applications while mitigating the inherent intermittency of renewable energy sources and power outages from direct energy generation. Among TES technologies, thermochemical energy storage (TCES) based on calcium looping emerges as a compelling high-power energy storage candidate due to its high reaction enthalpy, compatibility with elevated operating temperatures, and abundance of low-cost materials. However, the long-term durability of calcium-based sorbents for TCES is hindered by surface sintering and particle aggregation, leading to performance degradation over repeated thermal cycles. This study explores a moisture hydration-based strategy to regenerate a degraded calcium sorbent and mitigate performance degradation for long duration TCES. The addition of moisture transforms calcium oxide into calcium hydroxide and produces intercalation water layers, associated with a regenerated surface area and reduced calcium oxide crystallite size. Both these effects are beneficial in restoring the sorbents' reactivity for carbonization. Additionally, an optimized hydration-assisted reactivation protocol balances the recovered energy storage capacity with heating penalty required for moisture removal from hydrated samples, resulting in an enhanced energy storage capacity up to 176% compared to benchmark sorbents that undergo cycling without reactivation after 60 cycles. In conclusion, these results highlight the potential of hydration-assisted reactivation to enhance the long-term performance of TCES, providing an effective pathway to advancing electro-thermal storage technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adapting the serial Alpgen parton-interaction generator to simulate LHC collisions on millions of parallel threads

As the LHC moves to higher energies and luminosity, the demand for computing resources increases accordingly and will soon outpace the growth of the World- wide LHC Computing Grid. To meet this greater demand, event generation Monte Carlo was targeted for adaptation to run on Mira, the supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. Alpgen is a Monte Carlo event generation application that is used by LHC experiments in the simulation of collisions that take place in the Large Hadron Collider. This paper details the process by which Alpgen was adapted from a single-processor serial-application to a large-scale parallel-application and the performance that was achieved.

HEP↗

Decentralized control of units in smart grids for the support of renewable energy supply

Due to the significant environmental impact of power production from fossil fuels and nuclear fission, future energy systems will increasingly rely on distributed and renewable energy sources (RES). The electrical feed-in from photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind energy converters (WEC) varies greatly both over short and long time periods (from minutes to seasons), and (not only) by this effect the supply of electrical power from RES and the demand for electrical power are not per se matching. In addition, with a growing share of generation capacity especially in distribution grids, the top-down paradigm of electricity distribution is gradually replaced by a bottom-up power supply. This altogether leads to new problems regarding the safe and reliable operation of power grids. In order to address these challenges, the notion of Smart Grids has been introduced. The inherent flexibilities, i.e. the set of feasible power schedules, of distributed power units have to be controlled in order to support demand–supply matching as well as stable grid operation. Controllable power units are e.g. combined heat and power plants, power storage systems such as batteries, and flexible power consumers such as heat pumps. By controlling the flexibilities of these units we are particularly able to optimize the local utilization of RES feed-in in a given power grid by integrating both supply and demand management measures with special respect to the electrical infrastructure. In this context, decentralized systems, autonomous agents and the concept of self-organizing systems will become key elements of the ICT based control of power units. In this contribution, we first show how a decentralized load management system for battery charging/discharging of electrical vehicles (EVs) can increase the locally used share of supply from PV systems in a low voltage grid. For a reliable demand side management of large sets of appliances, dynamic clustering of these appliances into uniformly controlled appliance sets is necessary. We introduce a method for self-organized clustering for this purpose and show how control of such clusters can affect load peaks in distribution grids. Subsequently, we give a short overview on how we are going to expand the idea of self-organized clusters of units into creating a virtual control center for dynamic virtual power plants (DVPP) offering products at a power market. For an efficient organization of DVPPs, the flexibilities of units have to be represented in a compact and easy to use manner. We give an introduction how the problem of representing a set of possibly 10{sup 100} feasible schedules can be solved by a machine-learning approach. In summary, this article provides an overall impression how we use agent based control techniques and methods of self-organization to support the further integration of distributed and renewable energy sources into power grids and energy markets. - Highlights: • Distributed load management for electrical vehicles supports local supply from PV. • Appliances can self-organize into so called virtual appliances for load control. • Dynamic VPPs can be controlled by extensively decentralized control centers. • Flexibilities of units can efficiently be represented by support-vector descriptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis of heating load diversity in German residential districts and implications for the application in district heating systems

In recent years, the application of district heating systems for the heat supply of residential districts has been increasing in Germany. Central supply systems can be very efficient due to diverse energy demand profiles which may lead to reduced installed equipment capacity. Load diversity in buildings has been investigated in former studies, especially for the electricity demand. However, little is known about the influence of single building characteristics (such as building envelope or hot water demand) on the overall heating peak load of a residential district. For measuring the diversity, the peak load ratio (PLR) index is used to represent the percentage reduction of peak load of a district system from a simple sum of individual peak loads of buildings. A total of 144 residential building load profiles have been created with the dynamic building simulation software IDA ICE for a theoretical analysis in which the PLR reaches 15%. Within this study, certain district features are identified which lead to higher diversity. Furthermore, these results are used in a district heating simulation model which confronts the possible advantage of reduced installed capacity with the practical disadvantage of heat distribution losses. Likewise, the influence of load density and the districts building structure can be analyzed. This study shows that especially in districts with high load density, which consist of newly constructed buildings with low supply temperature and high influence of the hot water demand, the advantages of load diversity can be exploited.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Numerical modeling and parametric study of a dual purpose underground thermal battery

We report integrating thermal energy storage with building energy systems can enable flexible building electric demands at buildings to help mitigate the mismatch between electricity supply and demand. A novel building heating and cooling system that integrates a dual-source heat pump with hybrid thermal storage named dual-purpose underground thermal battery (DPUTB) has been developed for reshaping building electric demands. The proposed DPUTB integrated geothermal heat pump system is an original innovation that enables Grid-interactive Energy Efficient buildings. This paper focuses on the study of the novel DPUTB. The DPUTB works as both a thermal storage tank (an inner tank) and a ground heat exchanger (an outer tank separated from the inner tank by the insulation material). High fidelity and computationally effective models are needed to predict the performance of the novel DPUTB. This study has developed a simplified dynamic model for the DPUTB according to heat transfer and energy conservation principles and validated it by using experimental data obtained from testing a small-scale DPUTB apparatus. A parametric study was conducted to identify a design that can achieve the target thermal storage performance of load shift and energy efficiency. The parametric study results show that the inner tank shell thermal conductivity and the phase change material's melting point are the two most influencing factors on the performance of the DPUTB. One single full-size DPUTB with the identified design could provide 1-ton cooling (3.51 kW) with the supply temperature lower than 11 °C for 4 hours in summer after being fully charged in 8 hours. The inner tank filled with phase change material is for cooling thermal storage as a latent tank in the design. However, its capacity can be as high as 60 MJ as a sensible water tank for heating storage in winter. In the future study, the DPUTB model will be incorporated into the dual-source heat pump system for evaluating the overall system performance of demand side management in the long term.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Solving the duck curve in a smart grid environment using a non-cooperative game theory and dynamic pricing profiles

With the intermittency that comes with electricity generation from renewables, utilizing dynamic pricing will encourage the demand-side to respond in a smart way that would minimize the electricity costs and flatten the net electricity demand curve. Determining the optimal dynamic pricing profile that would leverage distributed storage to flatten the curve is a novel idea that needs to be studied. Moreover, the economic feasibility of utilizing distributed electrical energy storage is still not given in the literature. Therefore, in this paper, a novel way of solving a citywide dynamic model using a bilevel programming algorithm is introduced. The problem is developed as a novel non-cooperative Stackelberg game that utilizes air-conditioning systems and electrical storage through the end-users to determine the optimal dynamic pricing profile. The results show that the combined effect of utilizing demand-side air-conditioning systems and distributed storage together can flatten the curve while employing the optimal dynamic pricing profile. An economic study is performed to determine the economic feasibility of 20 different cases with different battery designs and the level of solar penetration. Three metrics were used to evaluate the economic performance of each case: the levelized cost of storage, the levelized cost of energy, and the simple payback period. Most cases had levelized cost of storage values lower than 0.457 $/kWh, which is the lower bound available in the literature. Seven out of 16 cases have a simple payback period shorter than the lifetime of the system (25 years). The case with a 100 MW PV power plant and a battery storage of size 597 MWh, was found to be the most promising case with a simple payback period of 12.71 years for the photovoltaic plant and 19.86 years for the demand-side investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗