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Model uncertainty in accelerator application simulations

Monte-Carlo nuclear reaction and transport codes are widely used to devise accelerator-based nuclear physics experiments; at the same time, many experiments are performed to validate the Monte-Carlo codes, which can be used for the design of full-scale nuclear power applications or the design of new benchmark experiments. Dedicated model benchmark studies investigate a broad range of nuclear reactions and quantities. Examples of these include isotope formation or secondary particle fluxes that result from the interactions of GeV-range hadrons with monoisotopic targets, which can be used to assess the respective systematic uncertainty of models. Such benchmark studies, as well as many nuclear application experiments and simulations carried out by various groups over the last few decades, enable us to draw methodological lessons. In this work, model uncertainty determined based on available experimental data allow us to identify the effects of practitioner expertise as well as the design of codes (user access to micro-scale parameters) on the range of uncertainties. We found that in cases when simulations are performed by code developers or users that are very experienced in performing simulations, the model to experiment quantity ratios generally agree with the limits determined by dedicated benchmark studies. In other cases, the ratios generally tend to be either smaller (underestimation of model error) or larger (overestimation of model error). A plausible explanation of the aforementioned effects is suggested.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of recent ENDF nuclear data update, high initial enrichment and high burnup fuel on critical experiments applicability determination via the integral index c k for burnup credit validation

In 2012, NUREG/CR-7109 reported on the validation of burnup credit calculations involving major and minor actinides and major fission products which was investigated for pressurized and boiling water reactor (PWR and BWR) fuel enrichments up to 5 wt% 235 U and assembly-average burnups up to 60 GWd/MTU. Recently, there has been interest in increasing the maximum enrichment used in PWR fuel as high as 8 wt% 235 U and correspondingly increasing the maximum assembly-average burnups to approximately 75 GWd/MTU. These proposed increases in enrichment and burnup necessitate reinvestigation of the validation basis for k eff calculations for this expanded application space. Additionally, the 2012 study was performed by using the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.0 nuclear data with the SCALE 6 covariance library, and the effects of using the newly released ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data and covariance libraries should be evaluated. In this work, published in NUREG/CR-7309 in 2025, the validation assessment was performed consistently with NUREG/CR-7109: modeling irradiated fuel assemblies in the Generic Burnup Credit (GBC)-32 cask defined in NUREG/CR-6747. The TSUNAMI-3D sequence was used to generate sensitivity data for the application model, and the data were compared with sensitivity data from select benchmark models. The integral parameter c k is the metric of similarity used in this study and is consistent with NUREG/CR-7109, where a c k value in excess of 0.8 indicates sufficient similarity for use in validation. A new set of benchmark experiments with sensitivity data has been assembled for this effort. The number of experiments with available sensitivity data is now 2,104, compared to 474 in NUREG/CR-7109. This increase was facilitated by the efforts of the Nuclear Energy Agency to generate sensitivity data for a majority of the experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook to supplement the data available in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID). The complete set of benchmarks considered here includes experiments for low-enriched uranium (LEU), intermediate enriched uranium (IEU), and a mixture of uranium and plutonium (MIX) from the ICSBEP Handbook and VALID, as well as ORNL models of the Haut Taux de Combustion (HTC) experiments and other potentially relevant models not included in VALID. The updated similarity study shows that none of the extended burnup and higher enrichment combinations considered show a significant decrease in the number of potentially applicable experiments, meaning sufficient critical experiments exist for the validation of BUC criticality safety calculations, with initial enrichments up to 8 wt% 235 U and burnups up to 80 GWd/MTU. Additionally, both the ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data libraries can be used for validation since the number of critical experiments applicable for validation increases for most cases with the most recent nuclear data compared to the previous one. As in previous BUC validation studies, the French HTC experiments are the most similar in a majority of the application cases studied, especially from representative discharge burnups ranging from 40 to 80 GWd/MTU. In conclusion, these results match the conclusions presented in NUREG/CR-7109 regarding validation of the primary actinides in BUC analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uncertainty Quantification of a Light Water Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiment to Thermal Neutron Scattering Laws

Thermal neutron scattering laws are important nuclear data for many nuclear science and engineering applications. Validation helps to ensure that a thermal neutron scattering law has a high quality and often employs critical benchmarks as integral experiments. Recently, pulsed-neutron die-away benchmarks have been used as an experiment to validate thermal neutron scattering laws. Herein, we evidence how this alternative integral experiment has a high sensitivity to these nuclear data by performing an uncertainty quantification analysis. The analysis randomly sampled the nuclear model parameters associated with hydrogen bound in light water thermal neutron scattering law and sampled other nuclear data that influenced the experiment’s integral parameter (e.g., elastic scattering, absorption in hydrogen and oxygen) from their respective covariance matrices. The thermal neutron scattering law caused an uncertainty in the integral parameter that reached 2.67%, which exceeds by an order of magnitude the uncertainties induced in commonly used thermal solution critical benchmarks. The validation performed here, although limited due to a poor description of the historical experiment, indicated that the ENDF/B-VIII.0 thermal neutron scattering law well predicted the integral parameter. These results motivate further benchmark and validation efforts using pulsed-neutron die-away experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Multiphysics modelling in PyLith: poroelasticity

SUMMARY PyLith, a community, open-source code for modelling quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation with an emphasis on earthquake faulting, has recently been updated with a flexible multiphysics implementation. We demonstrate the versatility of the multiphysics implementation by extending the code to model fully coupled continuum poromechanics. We verify the newly incorporated physics using standard benchmarks for a porous medium saturated with a slightly compressible fluid. The benchmarks include the 1-D consolidation problem as outlined by Terzaghi, Mandel’s problem for the 2-D case, and Cryer’s problem for the 3-D case. All three benchmarks have been added to the PyLith continuous integration test suite. We compare the closed form analytical solution for each benchmark against solutions generated by our updated code, and lastly, demonstrate that the poroelastic material formulation may be used alongside the existing fault implementation in PyLith.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

On Distribution Grid Optimal Power Flow Development and Integration

Due to changes in electric distribution grid operation, new operation regimes have been recommended. Distribution grid optimal power flow (DOPF) has received tremendous attention in the research community, yet it has not been fully adopted across the utility industry. Our paper recognizes this problem and suggests a development and integration procedure for DOPF. We propose development of DOPF as a three step procedure of 1) processing the grid, 2) obtaining a tractable solution, and 3) implementing multiple solution algorithms and benchmarking them to improve application reliability. For the integration of DOPF, we demonstrate how a DOPF federate may be developed that can be integrated in a co-simulation environment to mimic the real-world conditions and hence improve its practicality to be deployed in the field. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods, tests on IEEE 123 bus system are performed where the usage of tractable formulation in DOPF algorithm development and its comparison to the benchmark solution are demonstrated.

Hanif, Sarmad↗

Evaluating Robust Entanglement on a Trapped Ion Platform

We present proof of principle results for evaluating an entanglement volumetric benchmark [1] on trapped ion platforms. The benchmark quantifies the robustness of multipartite and bipartite entanglement using stabilizer measurements and witness functions. Each n-qubit graph state is prepared and used to evaluate n state-specific stabilizer strings. These stabilizer measurements are used to evaluate entanglement witness functions. The entanglement benchmark defines families of graph states associated with an initial sub-graph of the hardware qubit connectivity - with all-to-all connectivity, trapped ion systems provide a flexibility in the choice of this initial graph, and this will affect the associated family. In this work, we present results targeting several classes of entangled states: 1) 1-D cluster states, 2) n-qubit GHZ states, and 3) cycle graph states. These states have been found in the literature as standard hardware benchmarks, and have connections to many near-term applications.

Hamilton, Kathleen↗

Search for resonances decaying to an anomalous jet and a Higgs boson in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$

This paper presents a search for new physics through the process where a massive particle, X, decays into a Higgs boson and a second particle, Y. The Higgs boson subsequently decays into a bottom quark–antiquark pair, which is reconstructed as a single large-radius jet. The decay products of Yare also assumed to produce a single large-radius jet. The identification of the Yparticle is enhanced by computing the anomaly score of its candidate jet using an autoencoder, which measures deviations from typical quark- or gluon-induced jets. This allows a simultaneous search for multiple Ydecay scenarios within a single analysis. In the main benchmark process, Yis a scalar particle that decays into a Wboson pair. Two other scalar Ydecay processes are also considered as benchmarks: decays to a light quark–antiquark pair, and decays to a top quark–antiquark pair. A fourth benchmark process considers Yas a hadronically decaying top quark, arising from the decay of a vector-like quark into a top quark and a Higgs boson. Data recorded by the CMS experiment at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 , are analyzed. The search covers Xmasses between 1.4 and 3.0 TeV and Ymasses between 90 and 400 TeV, with all simulated signals produced in the narrow-width approximation. No significant excess above the standard model background expectation is observed. The most stringent upper limits to date are placed on benchmark signal cross sections for various masses of X and Y particles

Hayrapetyan, A. [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗

Understanding Portability of Automotive Workload: A Case Study with the Points-to-Image Kernel in SYCL on Heterogeneous Computing Platforms

SYCL is a promising programming model for heterogenous computing across vendors’ devices. In this paper, we study whether SYCL can be applied to an automotive workload and its portability on heterogeneous computing platforms. We explain the automotive benchmark, describe our implementations and optimizations of the benchmark, and evaluate the performance of the benchmarks using SYCL and other programming models on heterogeneous computing devices. The study also allows us to have a better understanding of portability of the benchmark across these platforms.

Jin, Zheming↗

Scaling Uintah on the Aurora Exascale System up to 122,880 Intel Ponte Vecchio Xe Stacks

The challenge of being able to scale application codes based on the Asynchronous Many-Task (AMT) Uintah framework on the Department of Energy (DOE) Aurora exascale system is addressed in this work by considering a challenging Reverse Monte Carlo Ray Tracing radiation benchmark calculation. This benchmark involves potentially global all-to-all communication and uses adaptive mesh refinement and ray tracing to achieve scalability. This benchmark has been used as part of previous scalability studies on a number of pre-exascale systems and on the DOE Frontier exascale system. This paper describes steps taken to enable this benchmark to run successfully on up to 10,240 nodes and 122,880 Intel® Ponte Vecchio Xe stacks on the DOE Aurora exascale system. This scalability was achieved through a limited number of experiments on Aurora, given machine loads and its uniqueness. These experiments constitute valuable lessons learned to achieve scalability at this level. The resulting scalability runs, while few in number, demonstrate relatively good strong-scaling characteristics. A detailed analysis of these results provides important indications about the path to scalability on Aurora for future work. Overall, these results continue the remarkable ability of this AMT approach to produce scalable solutions for challenging problems at extreme scale on heterogeneous architectures.

Garcia, Marta [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

LCIO

Performance of file systems shift during their life cycles. Evaluating this performance change over time is not trivial. Complexity arises in the interplay between external (i.e. application I/O workloads) and internal (i.e. the filesystem state) factors. Many benchmarks can test how a filesystem performs at the current snapshot state, but to observe the change over time necessitates that the filesystem state mutate (age) between benchmark runs. For a large-scale HPC parallel filesystem, the sheer scale and amount of interacting components during I/O operations magnify these challenges. LCIO addresses the question - how will the filesystem perform at different stages of its life cycle? LCIO is a synthetic benchmark, which provides the file system aging process to increase the amount of information that existing benchmarks like IOR and MDTest yield, as well as provide additional points of data that will be useful to system architects and engineers.

Bachstein, Matthew↗

tether

Tether is a python module for benchmarking and assessing large language model (LLMs) performance at generic scientific tasks. The code generates benchmarks, uses the benchmark to prompt LLMs through automatic programming interfaces (APIs), and then logs the number of prompts an LLM correctly answers and presents the results as a completed benchmark.

Kaiser, Bryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory]↗

Phloem

Phloem is a Message Passing Interface (MPI) micro-benchmarking suite featuring sub-communicator collectives, methods for finding slow links on MPI interconnects, and point-to-point MPI benchmarks, including a messaging rate benchmark. All of the benchmarks except for ones related exclusively to finding slow links are GPU-aware via the Umpire resource management library.

Moody, AdamT [Lawrence Livermore National Laborato↗

MOSAIC-CONUS: A Multimodal, Multi-Temporally Paired Dataset for Earth Sciences

Earth embeddings—vector representations of geographic locations indexed in space and time—are emerging as a unifying interface for geospatial AI. However, their quality depends not only on model design, but on how multimodal Earth observation (EO) data are spatially indexed, temporally aligned, and cross-modally associated during pretraining. We introduce MOSAIC-CONUS (Multimodal Observations with Spatially Aligned Imagery, Urban Points of Interest, In-Situ Measurements and Text Captions), a large-scale EO dataset over the contiguous United States, organized around 250,000 stratified point indices that serve as stable spatial keys across seven modalities: active radar, passive optical imagery, lidar-derived elevation, land cover, functional context, hydrometeorological measurements, and textual summaries. Unlike existing EO datasets, MOSAIC-CONUS introduces four contributions not jointly addressed in prior work: 1. an open-source, large-scale multimodal EO corpus structured around point-indexed data designed to support Earth embedding learning; 2. explicit radar-optical pairing tables spanning twelve temporal alignment regimes, formalizing cross-sensor alignment as a controllable variable for analyzing how temporal mismatch across modalities influences learned embeddings quality; 3. a benchmark suite spanning cross-modal retrieval, annual nightlights regression, and basin-held-out streamflow prediction, positioning MOSAIC-CONUS as a benchmark-ready resource for multimodal AI systems; and 4. a language-based embedding layer through co-registered textual summaries, enabling Earth embeddings to function as a queryable interface for agentic AI systems. The dataset and pairing protocols are publicly released.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preliminary RAM-RODD results for the MUSiC subcritical configurations

The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) was performed at the DOE’s National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) located in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The measurement utilized the Rocky Flats shells to perform benchmark measurements of similar highly enriched uranium (HEU) systems that span a wide range of reactivities. The Rocky Flats (RF) shells are 93.16% U-235 enriched metal hemishells that can be stacked concentrically. Ten configurations were measured with effective multiplication factors spanning between deeply subcritical (~ 0.64) through delayed critical. Details of the measured configurations are listed in Table 1. This unique set of measurements with its large span of reactivies is being used to determine the range over which neutron noise techniques such as Feynman variance-to-mean, Rossi-alpha, and pulsed neutron source techniques can be accurately employed for a bare HEU system. The results of the measurements will be published as a benchmark in The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The results will support the growing amount of subcritical benchmark data, such as the SCRaP measurements, that is available to the community. The measurements were performed using several different detector systems for the purposes of cross-validation and obtaining detector independent results. Four detector systems were deployed, three by the NCERC team and one from the University of Michigan. The detector systems included a Neutron Multiplicity Array Detector (NoMAD) system (similar to the MC-15), four small volume 0.635 cm (Ø) × 7.59 cm 3 He detectors (ideal for measuring prompt neutron decay constants due to their fast recovery speed), the Rossi Alpha Measurements – Rapid Organic (n, γ) Discrimination Detector (RAM-RODD), and the Organic Scintillator Array (OSCAR). RAM-RODD is an array of eight 5.08 cm (Ø) × 5.08 cm EJ-309 organic scintillator detectors. OSCAR is a University of Michigan system and is an array of twelve 5.08 cm (Ø) × 5.08 cm stilbene detectors. Details of measurements performed with OSCAR will be discussed in a separate talk. The focus of this work is preliminary results obtained by RAM-RODD for the 8 subcritical configurations. Additional details on the measurements and on the setup and deployment of RAM-RODD will be discussed. Preliminary neutron noise analysis results including Rossi-alpha and Feynman-alpha will also be presented.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CERBERUS: CEDT Phase-1 Preliminary Design for Cu Critical Experiment

The goal of the Critical Experiment Reflected By copper to bEtteR Understand Scattering [CERBERUS] is to design a critical experiment that maximizes sensitivities to Cu reactions, particularly in the intermediate energy region (0.625 eV – 100 keV). Despite the number of experiments evaluated in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook1, there is still a gap of benchmarks sensitive to neutrons in the intermediate energy region. Of the ICSBEP benchmarks sensitive to neutrons in the intermediate energy region, very few are also sensitive to Cu in that region. One of the primary intermediate energy benchmark evaluations is the ZEUS series, which uses a Cu reflector. However, concerns have been brought up about the nuclear data associated with Cu scattering in the reflector. Improving Cu nuclear data is important outside of the ZEUS series, because it is present in many bronze and aluminum alloys, which are used in various nuclear operations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of NEAMS Tools Using MSRE Data

This report documents the benchmarks developed and performed for the tools and codes developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program utilizing the MSRE experiment data. There are three focus areas explored in this work: fuel evolution, CFD, and system transient analyses. Fuel depletion is important for MSR reactor physics and fuel cycle analysis. Fuel depletion capability is currently being developed in the Griffin reactor physics code. To support this, a benchmark problem is developed using the MSRE data and an existing depletion code with flowing fuel analysis functionality (ADDER) to validate this new capability in Griffin. The ADDER calculation is compared with the TRITON-MSR results as well as the MSRE experimental data. This benchmark can be directly used to verify and validate the Griffin fuel depletion capability in future years. For CFD simulation, the MSRE CAD model is obtained from the Copenhagen Atomics and a mesh is generated for the MSRE inlet plenum. The Nek5000 code will be employed to find the flow distribution in the MSRE inlet plenum based on the mesh generated. For system analysis, a simple benchmark problem for three types of MSR system transients is developed. The SAM and SPECTRA codes are used to solve the simple problem, and the results from the two codes agree well. The SAM code is also employed to obtain the frequency response of the MSRE system at the 5 and 8 MWt power levels. The results agree well with the experiment measurements. These verification and validation efforts gives SAM users more confidence in MSR system transient simulations using SAM. Lastly, the SAM-Griffin Multiphysics coupling work is initiated. A simple one-way coupling of evaluating the precursor drift effect on the MSRE k-eff is demonstrated. This preliminary coupling work serves as the basis for future more complex Multiphysics simulation and modelling.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗