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NASA NTRS2009

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

Valentine, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Comparison between One- and Two-Loop ATCS Architectures Proposed for CEV

In an effort to help future spacecraft thermal control analysts understand the characteristics of one- and two-loop Active Thermal Control Systems (ATCS), a comparison was made between the one- and two-loop ATCS architectures officially proposed for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) in Design Analysis Cycle 1 (DAC1) and DAC2, respectively. This report provides a description of each design, along with mass and power estimates derived from their respective Master Equipment List (MEL) and Power Equipment List (PEL). Since some of the components were sized independent of loop architecture (ex. coldplates and heat exchangers), the mass and power for these components were based on the MEL and PEL of the most mature design (i.e. two-loop architecture). The mass and power of the two architectures are then compared and the ability of each design to meet CEV requirements is discussed.

Ochoa, Dustin A.↗

NASA NTRS1963

Space Flight Handbooks. Volume 3- Planetary Flight Handbook: Supplementary Trajectory Data: Venus to Earth and Mars to Earth - Part 3

Parts 2 and 3 present tabulations of trajectory data for scheduling flights to and from Venus and Mars during the period 1960-2000. Part 2 contains information for outbound flights to these planets; Part 3 contains information for trajectories returning from the planets to Earth. Each Part contains data for single-plane transfers, as well as for broken-plane transfers which employ a midcourse plane-change to eliminate the high speed "ridges." The mathematical analyses employed for all calculations are described in Part 1 of this handbook. To facilitate the construction of round-trip trajectories, the date at the target planet is held fixed while the trip duration is varied in 10-day increments from zero days to the length of that planet's synodic period with Earth. Dates of arrival at the target planet are presented in the extreme right-hand column of Part 2, and dates of departure from the target planet are presented in the extreme left-hand column of Part 3. Thus, by holding Part 2 directly to the left of Part 3, the analyst may easily and rapidly scan all trip possibilities which involve any desired stopover time at the target planet. Within approximately 200 days of each conjunction or opposition, data are presented in 10-day increments at the target planet. Only those trips are listed for which the hyperbolic excess speeds at either or both ends of the trajectory do not exceed 0.6 EMOS (Earth Mean Orbital Speed). For the remaining mission regions, the requirements are so smoothly varying that a 50-day interval in dates at the target planet may be employed; the 10-day interval in trip times is, however, preserved here. In these regions, only those trips are listed for which either or both speeds do not exceed 0.3 EMOS.

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NASA NTRS2009

Structural Dynamic Behavior of Wind Turbines

The structural dynamicist s areas of responsibility require interaction with most other members of the wind turbine project team. These responsibilities are to predict structural loads and deflections that will occur over the lifetime of the machine, ensure favorable dynamic responses through appropriate design and operational procedures, evaluate potential design improvements for their impact on dynamic loads and stability, and correlate load and control test data with design predictions. Load prediction has been a major concern in wind turbine designs to date, and it is perhaps the single most important task faced by the structural dynamics engineer. However, even if we were able to predict all loads perfectly, this in itself would not lead to an economic system. Reduction of dynamic loads, not merely a "design to loads" policy, is required to achieve a cost-effective design. The two processes of load prediction and structural design are highly interactive: loads and deflections must be known before designers and stress analysts can perform structural sizing, which in turn influences the loads through changes in stiffness and mass. Structural design identifies "hot spots" (local areas of high stress) that would benefit most from dynamic load alleviation. Convergence of this cycle leads to a turbine structure that is neither under-designed (which may result in structural failure), nor over-designed (which will lead to excessive weight and cost).

Thresher, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Precision Measurement of Black Hole Binary Dynamics: Analyzing the LISA Data Stream

One of the richest potential sources of insight into fundamental physics that LISA will be capable of observing is the inspiral of supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). However, the data analysis challenge presented by the LISA data stream is quite unlike the situation for present day gravitational wave detectors. In order to make the precision measurements necessary to achieve LISA's science goals, the BHB signal must be distinguished from a data stream that not only contains instrumental noise, but potentially thousands of other signals as well, so that the "background" we wish to separate out to focus on the BHB signal is likely to be highly nonstationary and nongaussian, as well as being of scientific interest in its own right. In addition, whereas the theoretical templates that we calculate in order to ultimately estimate the parameters can afford to be somewhat inaccurate and still be effective for present day and near future detectors, this is not the case for LISA, and extremely high fidelity of the theoretical templates for high signal-to-noise signals will be required to prevent theoretical errors from dominating the parameter estimates. NVe, will describe efforts in the community of LISA data analysts to address the challenges regarding the specific issue of BHB signals. These efforts include using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the freedom to model the BHB and the other signals present in the data stream simultaneously, rather than trying to remove other signals and risk biasing the remaining data. The Mock LISA Data Challenge is a community of LISA scientists who generate rounds of simulated LISA noise with increasingly difficult signal content, and invite the LISA data analysis community to exercise their methods, or develop new methods, in an attempt to extract the parameters for the signals embedded in the mock data. In addition to practical approaches such ,is this to assess the level of parameter accuracy, one can apply the Fisher matrix formalism to assess both the statistical errors from noise and the theoretical errors

McWilliams, Sean T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

Chin, Mian↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Interim: Until You Achieve an Operationally Responsive Ground System

Everyone wants to achieve a 'Responsive' Ground Data System (GDS), but that takes time. What do you do in the interim? Our group, called the Integration, Test and Deployment Team (ITD), is a group of responsive engineers whose primary focus is to assist JPL projects to successfully adapt, test, integrate and deploy their ground data system. The team configures and adapts the GDS for a project, so that analysts, engineers and scientist do not need to be experts in the GDS to operate it. The team has developed a human interface to accommodate all types of users. It provides Graphical User Interfaces (GUI's) for those that want GUI's, command line interfaces for those that want control, and selection button interfaces for other users. The cornerstone of a responsive Ground Data System is responsive people. Without individuals who can be aware of a project's changing needs and requirements, how can the GDS become responsive?.

Ground Data System (GDS)↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Interim : until you achieve an operationally responsive ground system

ground data system (GDS)↗

NASA NTRS2007

Optimal Calibration of the Spitzer Space Telescope

A document discusses the focal-plane calibration of the Spitzer Space Telescope by use of the instrument pointing frame (IPF) Kalman filter, which was described in Kalman Filter for Calibrating a Telescope Focal Plane (NPO-40798), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 9 (September 2006), page 62. To recapitulate: In the IPF Kalman filter, optimal estimates of both engineering and scientific focal-plane parameters are obtained simultaneously, using data taken in each focalplane survey activity. The IPF Kalman filter offers greater efficiency and economy, relative to prior calibration practice in which scientific and engineering parameters were estimated by separate teams of scientists and engineers and iterated upon each other. In the Spitzer Space Telescope application, the IPF Kalman filter was used to calibrate 56 frames for precise telescope pointing, estimate >1,500 parameters associated with focal-plane mapping, and process calibration runs involving as many as 1,338 scientific image centroids. The final typical survey calibration accuracy was found to be 0.09 arc second. The use of the IPF Kalman filter enabled a team of only four analysts to complete the calibration processing in three months. An unanticipated benefit afforded by the IPF Kalman filter was the ability to monitor health and diagnose performance of the entire end-to-end telescope-pointing system.

Bayard, David↗

NASA NTRS2008

NASA's Earth Science Use of Commercially Availiable Remote Sensing Datasets: Cover Image

The cover image incorporates high resolution stereo pairs acquired from the DigitalGlobe(R) QuickBird sensor. It shows a digital elevation model of Meteor Crater, Arizona at approximately 1.3 meter point-spacing. Image analysts used the Leica Photogrammetry Suite to produce the DEM. The outside portion was computed from two QuickBird panchromatic scenes acquired October 2006, while an Optech laser scan dataset was used for the crater s interior elevations. The crater s terrain model and image drape were created in a NASA Constellation Program project focused on simulating lunar surface environments for prototyping and testing lunar surface mission analysis and planning tools. This work exemplifies NASA s Scientific Data Purchase legacy and commercial high resolution imagery applications, as scientists use commercial high resolution data to examine lunar analog Earth landscapes for advanced planning and trade studies for future lunar surface activities. Other applications include landscape dynamics related to volcanism, hydrologic events, climate change, and ice movement.

Underwood, Lauren W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Automated Recognition of 3D Features in GPIR Images

A method of automated recognition of three-dimensional (3D) features in images generated by ground-penetrating imaging radar (GPIR) is undergoing development. GPIR 3D images can be analyzed to detect and identify such subsurface features as pipes and other utility conduits. Until now, much of the analysis of GPIR images has been performed manually by expert operators who must visually identify and track each feature. The present method is intended to satisfy a need for more efficient and accurate analysis by means of algorithms that can automatically identify and track subsurface features, with minimal supervision by human operators. In this method, data from multiple sources (for example, data on different features extracted by different algorithms) are fused together for identifying subsurface objects. The algorithms of this method can be classified in several different ways. In one classification, the algorithms fall into three classes: (1) image-processing algorithms, (2) feature- extraction algorithms, and (3) a multiaxis data-fusion/pattern-recognition algorithm that includes a combination of machine-learning, pattern-recognition, and object-linking algorithms. The image-processing class includes preprocessing algorithms for reducing noise and enhancing target features for pattern recognition. The feature-extraction algorithms operate on preprocessed data to extract such specific features in images as two-dimensional (2D) slices of a pipe. Then the multiaxis data-fusion/ pattern-recognition algorithm identifies, classifies, and reconstructs 3D objects from the extracted features. In this process, multiple 2D features extracted by use of different algorithms and representing views along different directions are used to identify and reconstruct 3D objects. In object linking, which is an essential part of this process, features identified in successive 2D slices and located within a threshold radius of identical features in adjacent slices are linked in a directed-graph data structure. Relative to past approaches, this multiaxis approach offers the advantages of more reliable detections, better discrimination of objects, and provision of redundant information, which can be helpful in filling gaps in feature recognition by one of the component algorithms. The image-processing class also includes postprocessing algorithms that enhance identified features to prepare them for further scrutiny by human analysts (see figure). Enhancement of images as a postprocessing step is a significant departure from traditional practice, in which enhancement of images is a preprocessing step.

Park, Han↗

NASA NTRS2010

Overview and Software Architecture of the Copernicus Trajectory Design and Optimization System

The Copernicus Trajectory Design and Optimization System represents an innovative and comprehensive approach to on-orbit mission design, trajectory analysis and optimization. Copernicus integrates state of the art algorithms in optimization, interactive visualization, spacecraft state propagation, and data input-output interfaces, allowing the analyst to design spacecraft missions to all possible Solar System destinations. All of these features are incorporated within a single architecture that can be used interactively via a comprehensive GUI interface, or passively via external interfaces that execute batch processes. This paper describes the Copernicus software architecture together with the challenges associated with its implementation. Additionally, future development and planned new capabilities are discussed. Key words: Copernicus, Spacecraft Trajectory Optimization Software.

Williams, Jacob↗

NASA NTRS2010

Forces Associated with Nonlinear Nonholonomic Constraint Equations

A concise method has been formulated for identifying a set of forces needed to constrain the behavior of a mechanical system, modeled as a set of particles and rigid bodies, when it is subject to motion constraints described by nonholonomic equations that are inherently nonlinear in velocity. An expression in vector form is obtained for each force; a direction is determined, together with the point of application. This result is a consequence of expressing constraint equations in terms of dot products of vectors rather than in the usual way, which is entirely in terms of scalars and matrices. The constraint forces in vector form are used together with two new analytical approaches for deriving equations governing motion of a system subject to such constraints. If constraint forces are of interest they can be brought into evidence in explicit dynamical equations by employing the well-known nonholonomic partial velocities associated with Kane's method; if they are not of interest, equations can be formed instead with the aid of vectors introduced here as nonholonomic partial accelerations. When the analyst requires only the latter, smaller set of equations, they can be formed directly; it is not necessary to expend the labor to form the former, larger set first and subsequently perform matrix multiplications.

Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Orbit Determination Toolbox

The Orbit Determination Toolbox is an orbit determination (OD) analysis tool based on MATLAB and Java that provides a flexible way to do early mission analysis. The toolbox is primarily intended for advanced mission analysis such as might be performed in concept exploration, proposal, early design phase, or rapid design center environments. The emphasis is on flexibility, but it has enough fidelity to produce credible results. Insight into all flight dynamics source code is provided. MATLAB is the primary user interface and is used for piecing together measurement and dynamic models. The Java Astrodynamics Toolbox is used as an engine for things that might be slow or inefficient in MATLAB, such as high-fidelity trajectory propagation, lunar and planetary ephemeris look-ups, precession, nutation, polar motion calculations, ephemeris file parsing, and the like. The primary analysis functions are sequential filter/smoother and batch least-squares commands that incorporate Monte-Carlo data simulation, linear covariance analysis, measurement processing, and plotting capabilities at the generic level. These functions have a user interface that is based on that of the MATLAB ODE suite. To perform a specific analysis, users write MATLAB functions that implement truth and design system models. The user provides his or her models as inputs to the filter commands. The software provides a capability to publish and subscribe to a software bus that is compliant with the NASA Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) standards, to exchange data with other flight dynamics tools to simplify the flight dynamics design cycle. Using the publish and subscribe approach allows for analysts in a rapid design center environment to seamlessly incorporate changes in spacecraft and mission design into navigation analysis and vice versa.

Carpenter, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Initial Multidisciplinary Design and Analysis Framework

Within the Supersonics (SUP) Project of the Fundamental Aeronautics Program (FAP), an initial multidisciplinary design & analysis framework has been developed. A set of low- and intermediate-fidelity discipline design and analysis codes were integrated within a multidisciplinary design and analysis framework and demonstrated on two challenging test cases. The first test case demonstrates an initial capability to design for low boom and performance. The second test case demonstrates rapid assessment of a well-characterized design. The current system has been shown to greatly increase the design and analysis speed and capability, and many future areas for development were identified. This work has established a state-of-the-art capability for immediate use by supersonic concept designers and systems analysts at NASA, while also providing a strong base to build upon for future releases as more multifidelity capabilities are developed and integrated.

Ozoroski, L. P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Information Technology Research Services: Powerful Tools to Keep Up with a Rapidly Moving Field

Marty firms offer Information Technology Research reports, analyst calls, conferences, seminars, tools, leadership development, etc. These entities include Gartner, Forrester Research, IDC, The Burton Group, Society for Information Management, 1nfoTech Research, The Corporate Executive Board, and so on. This talk will cover how a number of such services are being used at the Goddard Space Flight Center to improve our IT management practices, workforce skills, approach to innovation, and service delivery. These tools and services are used across the workforce, from the executive leadership to the IT worker. The presentation will cover the types of services each vendor provides and their primary engagement model. The use of these services at other NASA Centers and Headquarters will be included. In addition, I will explain how two of these services are available now to the entire NASA IT workforce through enterprise-wide subscriptions.

Hunter, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2010

Models Extracted from Text for System-Software Safety Analyses

This presentation describes extraction and integration of requirements information and safety information in visualizations to support early review of completeness, correctness, and consistency of lengthy and diverse system safety analyses. Software tools have been developed and extended to perform the following tasks: 1) extract model parts and safety information from text in interface requirements documents, failure modes and effects analyses and hazard reports; 2) map and integrate the information to develop system architecture models and visualizations for safety analysts; and 3) provide model output to support virtual system integration testing. This presentation illustrates the methods and products with a rocket motor initiation case.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Spaceflight Recent Conjunctions of Interest

I. During each nine-hour shift (or upon request), the Orbital Safety Analyst (OSA) at JSpOC updates the entire tracked catalog with the latest tracking data from the SSN and screens this catalog against NASA s assets. a) For ISS operations, a 72-hour advance screening is performed. b) For Shuttle orbit operations, a 36-hour advance screening is performed. c) If a vehicle is performing a maneuver during the screening period, OSA uses post-reboost-trajectory data supplied by Mission Control Center-Houston (MCC-H) for screening. II. An automated process is used to detect any conjunctions within 10 x 40 x 40 km box (centered on the vehicle) using Special Perturbation (SP) processing: a) Box dimensions are Radial x Downtrack x Crosstrack. b) Any object found within this box has the tracking tasking level increased to improve (hopefully) its uncertainty in its current and predicted orbital trajectory. c) OSA informs NASA if any object is found inside a 2 x 25 x 25 km box then creates and sends an Orbital Conjunction Message (OCM) to NASA which contains detailed information about the conjunction. d) For Shuttle, the box size used for screening and reporting is altered for special operations (day of rendezvous, launch screening, etc.).

Browns, Ansley C.↗