SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Analysis of Variance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,567 records · Page 87

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2013

Improved mesh based photon sampling techniques for neutron activation analysis

The design of fusion power systems requires analysis of neutron activation of large, complex volumes, and the resulting particles emitted from these volumes. Structured mesh-based discretization of these problems allows for improved modeling in these activation analysis problems. Finer discretization of these problems results in large computational costs, which drives the investigation of more efficient methods. Within an ad hoc subroutine of the Monte Carlo transport code MCNP, we implement sampling of voxels and photon energies for volumetric sources using the alias method. The alias method enables efficient sampling of a discrete probability distribution, and operates in 0(1) time, whereas the simpler direct discrete method requires 0(log(n)) time. By using the alias method, voxel sampling becomes a viable alternative to sampling space with the 0(1) approach of uniformly sampling the problem volume. Additionally, with voxel sampling it is straightforward to introduce biasing of volumetric sources, and we implement this biasing of voxels as an additional variance reduction technique that can be applied. We verify our implementation and compare the alias method, with and without biasing, to direct discrete sampling of voxels, and to uniform sampling. We study the behavior of source biasing in a second set of tests and find trends between improvements and source shape, material, and material density. Overall, however, the magnitude of improvements from source biasing appears to be limited. Future work will benefit from the implementation of efficient voxel sampling - particularly with conformal unstructured meshes where the uniform sampling approach cannot be applied. (authors)

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1980

A harmonic analysis of lunar gravity

An improved model of lunar global gravity has been obtained by fitting a sixteenth-degree harmonic series to a combination of Doppler tracking data from Apollo missions 8, 12, 15, and 16, and Lunar Orbiters 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, and laser ranging data to the lunar surface. To compensate for the irregular selenographic distribution of these data, the solution algorithm has also incorporated a semi-empirical a priori covariance function. Maps of the free-air gravity disturbance and its formal error are presented, as are free-air anomaly and Bouguer anomaly maps. The lunar gravitational variance spectrum has the form V(G; n) = O(n to the -4th power), as do the corresponding terrestrial and martian spectra. The variance spectra of the Bouguer corrections (topography converted to equivalent gravity) for these bodies have the same basic form as the observed gravity; and, in fact, the spectral ratios are nearly constant throughout the observed spectral range for each body. Despite this spectral compatibility, the correlation between gravity and topography is generally quite poor on a global scale.

Bills, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Spatial analysis of storm depths from an Arizona raingage network

Eight years of summer rainstorm observations are analyzed by a dense network of 93 raingages operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, in the 150 km Walnut Gulch experimental catchment near Tucson, Arizona. Storms are defined by the total depths collected at each raingage during the noon-to-noon period for which there was depth recorded at any of the gages. For each of the resulting 428 storm days, the gage depths are interpolated onto a dense grid and the resulting random field analyzed to obtain moments, isohyetal plots, spatial correlation function, variance function, and the spatial distribution of storm depth.

Fennessey, N. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Empirical orthogonal function analysis of cloud-containing coastal zone color scanner images of northeastern North American coastal waters

Empirical-orthogonal-function (EOF) analyses were carried out on 36 images of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and the Gulf of Maine, obtained by the CZCS aboard Nimbus 7 for the time period from February 28 through July 9, 1979, with the purpose of determining pigment concentrations in coastal waters. The EOF procedure was modified so as to include images with significant portions of data missing due to cloud obstruction, making it possible to estimate pigment values in areas beneath clouds. The results of image analyses explained observed variances in pigment concentrations and showed a south-to-north pattern corresponding to an April Mid-Atlantic Bight bloom and a June bloom over Nantucket Shoals and Platts Bank.

Eslinger, David L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

A hierarchical analysis of the impact of methodological decisions on statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and air temperatures

Despite the widespread application of statistical downscaling tools, uncertainty remains regarding the role of model formulation in determining model skill for daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and precipitation occurrence and intensity. Impacts of several key aspects of statistical transfer function form on model skill are evaluated using a framework resistant to model overspecification. We focus on: (a) model structure: simple (generalized linear models, GLMs) versus complex (artificial neural networks, ANNs) models. (b) Predictor selection: Fixed number of predictors chosen a priori versus stepwise selection of predictors and inclusion of grid point values versus predictors derived from application of principal components analysis (PCA) to spatial fields. We also examine the influence of domain size on model performance. For precipitation downscaling, we consider the role of the threshold used to characterize a wet day and apply three approaches (Poisson and Gamma distributions in GLM and ANN) to downscale wet-day precipitation amounts. While no downscaling formulation is optimal for all predictands and at 10 locations representing diverse U.S. climates, and due to the exclusion of variance inflation all of the downscaling formulations fail to reproduce the range of observed variability, models with larger suites of prospective predictors generally have higher skill. For temperature downscaling, ANNs generally outperform GLM, with greater improvements for T min than T max . Furthermore, use of PCA-derived predictors does not systematically improve model skill, but does improve skill for temperature extremes. Model skill for precipitation occurrence generally increases as the wet-day threshold increases and models using PCA-derived predictors tend to outperform those based on grid cell predictors. Each model for wet-day precipitation intensity overestimates annual total precipitation and underestimates the proportion derived from extreme precipitation events, but ANN-based models and those with larger predictor suites tend to have the smallest bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Ground-Based Correlates of Solar Irradiance Variation

Ground-based instruments cannot directly measure solar irradiance variability at the 0.1% level at which it occurs because of the earth's atmosphere. However, many forms of ground-based solar observations correlate well with solar irradiance variations, and this fact has been used to construct facular-sunspot models which can explain about 90% of the variance of total solar irradiance as observed by spacecraft radiometers. It is not yet clear whether remaining discrepancies are observational or require additional sources in the model. This paper is a selective review of the current status of the use of ground-based data to understand spacecraft observations of solar irradiance and to apply this understanding to periods before space-based measurements were available. New results from the extension of the histogram analysis of NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph observations (Jones et al., 2000, ApJ529, 1070) to the period from Nov. 1992 to Sep. 2000 are reported which confirm that strong mixed polarity magnetic regions (quiet network) are not significantly correlated with total solar irradiance and which show an unexplained linear trend in the residuals of a multiple regression.

Jones, Harrison P.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Analysis of aperture averaging measurements

Laser scintillation data obtained by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center balloon flight no. 5 from White Sands Missile Range on 19 October 1973 are analyzed. The measurement data, taken with various size receiver apertures, were related to predictions of aperture averaging theory, and it is concluded that the data are in reasonable agreement with theory. The following parameters are assigned to the vertical distribution of the strength of turbulence during the period of the measurements (daytime), for lambda = 0.633 microns, and the source at the zenith; the aperture averaging length is d sub o = 0.125 m, and the log-amplitude variance is (beta sub l)2 = 0.084 square nepers. This corresponds to a normalized point intensity variance of 0.40.

Fried, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose–response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean ± standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the “hybrid” method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose–response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates. - Highlights: • We investigate to what extent the distribution assumption can affect BMD estimates. • Both real data analysis and simulation study are conducted. • BMDs estimated using hybrid method are more sensitive to distribution assumption. • Summarized continuous data are adequate for BMD estimation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Comparing Convective Self‐Aggregation in Idealized Models to Observed Moist Static Energy Variability Near the Equator

Abstract Idealized convection‐permitting simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium have become a popular tool for understanding the physical processes leading to horizontal variability of tropical water vapor and rainfall. However, the applicability of idealized simulations to nature is still unclear given that important processes are typically neglected, such as lateral water vapor advection by extratropical intrusions, or interactive ocean coupling. Here, we exploit spectral analysis to compactly summarize the multiscale processes supporting convective aggregation. By applying this framework to high‐resolution reanalysis data and satellite observations in addition to idealized simulations, we compare convective‐aggregation processes across horizontal scales and data sets. The results affirm the validity of the radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations as an analogy to the real world. Column moist static energy tendencies share similar signs and scale selectivity in convection‐permitting models and observations: Radiation increases variance at wavelengths above 1,000 km, while advection damps variance across wavelengths, and surface fluxes mostly reduce variance between 1,000 and 10,000 km.

Beucler, Tom↗

DOE OSTI2017

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variability describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. The sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Determination of turbidity patterns in Lake Chicot from LANDSAT MSS imagery

A historical analysis of all the applicable LANDSAT imagery was conducted on the turbidity patterns of Lake Chicot, located in the southeastern corner of Arkansas. By examining the seasonal and regional turbidity patterns, a record of sediment dynamics and possible disposition can be obtained. Sketches were generated from the suitable imagery, displaying different intensities of brightness observed in bands 5 and 7 of LANDSAT's multispectral scanner data. Differences in and between bands 5 and 7 indicate variances in the levels of surface sediment concentrations. High sediment loads are revealed when distinct patterns appear in the band 7 imagery. Additionally, the upwelled signal is exponential in nature and saturates in band 5 at low wavelengths for large concentrations of suspended solids.

Lecroy, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Determination of turbidity patterns in Lake Chicot from LANDSAT MSS imagery

Lecroy, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

Hill, Emma M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Detection of Northern Hemisphere Transient Baroclinic Eddies at Gale Crater Mars

The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) on the Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) Curiosity rover has been operating in Gale Crater Mars (4.5°S, 137.4°E) for over 2 Mars years. Analysis of its pressure data, which have a precision of approximately 0.2 Pa (see Haberle et al., 2014; Harri et al., 2014), reveal temporal oscillations in its seasonally de-trended daily averaged pressures at some seasons with 2-5 Pa amplitudes that have periods similar to those observed at the Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) site (48.3°N, 134.0°E) several decades ago. As illustrated in Fig 1 there are clear peaks in the variance at a frequency f approximately 0.45 and 0.06 per sol for the fall season of Mars Year (MY) 31, and at f approximately 0.15 and 0.06 per sol for MY 32. These frequencies correspond to periods of 2.2, 6.7, and 16.7 sols, and are very similar to those observed at VL-2 (Fig 2, and see Barnes, 1980). Since orbital imaging data show dust frontal systems associated with eastward traveling baroclinic eddies that occasionally cross the equator (Wang et al., 2003), these findings suggest that MSL may be seeing their signature in its pressure data. To make this case we show that (a) the spectral peaks in the MSL are not only similar to those at VL-2, they have the same seasonal variation, (b) at least for some seasons the peaks are statistically significant and not likely due to random noise in the data, and (c) Global Circulation Model (GCM) results from the Ames GCM support this interpretation.

The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS)↗

DOE OSTI2013

Tau leaping of stiff stochastic chemical systems via local central limit approximation

Stiffness manifests in stochastic dynamic systems in a more complex manner than in deterministic systems; it is not only important for a time-stepping method to remain stable but it is also important for the method to capture the asymptotic variances accurately. In the context of stochastic chemical systems, time stepping methods are known as tau leaping. Well known existing tau leaping methods have shortcomings in this regard. The implicit tau method is far more stable than the trapezoidal tau method but underestimates the asymptotic variance. On the other hand, the trapezoidal tau method which estimates the asymptotic variance exactly for linear systems suffers from the fact that the transients of the method do not decay fast enough in the context of very stiff systems. We propose a tau leaping method that possesses the same stability properties as the implicit method while it also captures the asymptotic variance with reasonable accuracy at least for the test system S{sub 1}↔S{sub 2}. The proposed method uses a central limit approximation (CLA) locally over the tau leaping interval and is referred to as the LCLA-τ. The CLA predicts the mean and covariance as solutions of certain differential equations (ODEs) and for efficiency we solve these using a single time step of a suitable low order method. We perform a mean/covariance stability analysis of various possible low order schemes to determine the best scheme. Numerical experiments presented show that LCLA-τ performs favorably for stiff systems and that the LCLA-τ is also able to capture bimodal distributions unlike the CLA itself. The proposed LCLA-τ method uses a split implicit step to compute the mean update. We also prove that any tau leaping method employing a split implicit step converges in the fluid limit to the implicit Euler method as applied to the fluid limit differential equation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of zirconium carbide microspheres synthesized via internal gelation

Microspheres of zirconium carbide with grain size 40-320 nm were synthesized using internal gelation techniques and characterized by scanning electron microscopy, synchrotron X-ray diffraction, and neutron total scattering. Compared with a polycrystalline benchmark ZrC sample prepared by plasma vapor phase deposition, the microspheres display lower variance in grain size and considerably lower microstrain representative of a more homogenous internal microstructure. However, excess carbon was present in the microspheres, evident in both the X-ray and neutron diffraction data as well as a corresponding hypostoichiometric ZrC phase. Furthermore, the excess carbon phase is assumed to be pockets of carbon that remained unreacted through the combined internal gelation and subsequent carbothermic reduction synthesis process. Atomic-scale structural characterization with neutron PDF analysis confirmed the presence of localized nano-sized domains of graphite-like carbon material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Analysis of Simulations of the Turn-of-the-Century Drought in the Western United States

Here, we perform the first uncertainty quantification analysis of the turn-of-the-century drought in the western United States using a large perturbed-parameter ensemble of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4). We develop several metrics to characterize the aridity bias, spatial extent, and tropical forcing of the drought and use statistical models to ascertain that the modeled drought was mainly sensitive to CAM4 parameters related to deep convection and clouds. Deep convection parameters account for over half the variance across the drought metrics. We employ observed estimates of these drought metrics to infer probability distributions of the model parameters that lead to a better agreement with observations, thereby providing guidance on how to improve the simulation of drought in CAM4. We find that in some cases, the suggested parameter values that improve the simulation of one drought characteristic would degrade the simulation of another, suggesting that there is a complex relationship between the model parameters and drought in the western United States. We also demonstrate reductions in the uncertainty of the drought metrics of up to 30% by constraining with observations of all metrics. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that improvements to the simulation of the spatial extent of the turn-of-the-century drought also lead to improvements in the spatial extent of the Australian Millennium drought, suggesting that physics of drought as encoded by the model parameters may be generalizable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Plasma performance and operational space with an RMP-ELM suppressed edge

Abstract The operational space and global performance of plasmas with edge-localized modes (ELMs) suppressed by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) are surveyed by comparing AUG, DIII-D, EAST, and KSTAR stationary operating points. RMP-ELM suppression is achieved over a range of plasma currents, toroidal fields, and RMP toroidal mode numbers. Consistent operational windows in edge safety factor are found across devices, while windows in plasma shaping parameters are distinct. Accessed pedestal parameters reveal a quantitatively similar pedestal-top density limit for RMP-ELM suppression in all devices of just over 3 × 10 19 m −3 . This is surprising given the wide variance of many engineering parameters and edge collisionalities, and poses a challenge to extrapolation of the regime. Wide ranges in input power, confinement time, and stored energy are observed, with the achieved triple product found to scale like the product of current, field, and radius. Observed energy confinement scaling with engineering parameters for RMP-ELM suppressed plasmas are presented and compared with expectations from established H and L-mode scalings, including treatment of uncertainty analysis. Different scaling exponents for individual engineering parameters are found as compared to the established scalings. However, extrapolation to next-step tokamaks ITER and SPARC find overall consistency within uncertainties with the established scalings, finding no obvious performance penalty when extrapolating from the assembled multi-device RMP-ELM suppressed database. Overall this work identifies common physics for RMP-ELM suppression and highlights the need to pursue this no-ELM regime at higher magnetic field and different plasma physical size.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗