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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

This slide presentation reviews the study that used a model to forecast pollen to assist in warning for asthma populations. Using MODIS daily reflectances to input to a model, PREAM, adapted from the Dust REgional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system, a product of predicted pollen is produced. Using the pollen from Juniper the PREAM model was shown to be an assist in alerting the public of pollen bursts, and reduce the health impact on asthma populations.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Status and Mission Applicability of NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Project

The In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) project develops propulsion technologies that will enable or enhance NASA robotic science missions. Since 2001, the ISPT project developed and delivered products to assist technology infusion and quantify mission applicability and benefits through mission analysis and tools. These in-space propulsion technologies are applicable, and potentially enabling for flagship destinations currently under evaluation, as well as having broad applicability to future Discovery and New Frontiers mission solicitations. This paper provides status of the technology development, near-term mission benefits, applicability, and availability of in-space propulsion technologies in the areas of advanced chemical thrusters, electric propulsion, aerocapture, and systems analysis tools. The current chemical propulsion investment is on the high-temperature Advanced Material Bipropellant Rocket (AMBR) engine providing higher performance for lower cost. Investments in electric propulsion technologies focused on completing NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) ion propulsion system, a 0.6-7 kW throttle-able gridded ion system, and the High Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAC) thruster, which is a mid-term product specifically designed for a low-cost electric propulsion option. Aerocapture investments developed a family of thermal protections system materials and structures; guidance, navigation, and control models of blunt-body rigid aeroshells; atmospheric models for Earth, Titan, Mars and Venus; and models for aerothermal effects. In 2009 ISPT started the development of propulsion technologies that would enable future sample return missions. The paper describes the ISPT project's future focus on propulsion for sample return missions. The future technology development areas for ISPT is: Planetary Ascent Vehicles (PAV), with a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) being the initial development focus; multi-mission technologies for Earth Entry Vehicles (MMEEV) needed for sample return missions from many different destinations; propulsion for Earth Return Vehicles (ERV), transfer stages to the destination, and Electric Propulsion for sample return and low cost missions; and Systems/Mission Analysis focused on sample return propulsion. The ISPT project is funded by NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD).

Anderson, David J.↗

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗

Chandra Grating Spectroscopy of Three Hot White Dwarfs

High-resolution soft X-ray spectroscopic observations of single hot white dwarfs are scarce. With the Chandra Low-Energy Transmission Grating, we have observed two white dwarfs, one is of spectral type DA (LB1919) and the other is a non-DA of spectral type PG1159 (PG1520+525). The spectra of both stars are analyzed, together with an archival Chandra spectrum of another DA white dwarf (GD246). Aims. The soft X-ray spectra of the two DA white dwarfs are investigated in order to study the effect of gravitational settling and radiative levitation of metals in their photospheres. LB1919 is of interest because it has a significantly lower metallicity than DAs with otherwise similar atmospheric parameters. GD246 is the only white dwarf known that shows identifiable individual iron lines in the soft X-ray range. For the PG1159 star, a precise effective temperature determination is performed in order to confine the position of the blue edge of the GW Vir instability region in the HRD. Methods. The Chandra spectra are analyzed with chemically homogeneous as well as stratified NLTE model atmospheres that assume equilibrium between gravitational settling and radiative acceleration of chemical elements. Archival EUV and UV spectra obtained with EUVE, FUSE, and HST are utilized to support the analysis. Results. No metals could be identified in LB1919. All observations are compatible with a pure hydrogen atmosphere. This is in stark contrast to the vast majority of hot DA white dwarfs that exhibit light and heavy metals and to the stratified models that predict significant metal abundances in the atmosphere. For GD246 we find that neither stratified nor homogeneous models can fit the Chandra spectrum. The Chandra spectrum of PG1520+525 constrains the effective temperature to T(sub eff) = 150 000 +/- 10 000 K. Therefore, this nonpulsating star together with the pulsating prototype of the GWVir class (PG1159-035) defines the location of the blue edge of the GWVir instability region. The result is in accordance with predictions from nonadiabatic stellar pulsation models. Such models are therefore reliable tools to investigate the interior structure of GW Vir variables. Conclusions. Our soft X-ray study reveals that the understanding of metal abundances in hot DA white dwarf atmospheres is still incomplete. On the other hand, model atmospheres of hydrogen-deficient PG1159-type stars are reliable and reproduce well the observed spectra from soft X-ray to optical wavelengths.

Adamczak, J.↗

DCMIP2016: the splitting supercell test case

Abstract. This paper describes the splitting supercell idealized test case used in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP2016). These storms are useful test beds for global atmospheric models because the horizontal scale of convective plumes is O(1 km), emphasizing non-hydrostatic dynamics. The test case simulates a supercell on a reduced-radius sphere with nominal resolutions ranging from 4 to 0.5 km and is based on the work of Klemp et al. (2015). Models are initialized with an atmospheric environment conducive to supercell formation and forced with a small thermal perturbation. A simplified Kessler microphysics scheme is coupled to the dynamical core to represent moist processes. Reference solutions for DCMIP2016 models are presented. Storm evolution is broadly similar between models, although differences in the final solution exist. These differences are hypothesized to result from different numerical discretizations, physics–dynamics coupling, and numerical diffusion. Intramodel solutions generally converge as models approach 0.5 km resolution, although exploratory simulations at 0.25 km imply some dynamical cores require more refinement to fully converge. These results can be used as a reference for future dynamical core evaluation, particularly with the development of non-hydrostatic global models intended to be used in convective-permitting regimes.

Zarzycki, Colin M.↗

Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event

A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\sim$ 45 km) up to $\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

atmospheric general circulation models↗

Measurement and modeling of moist processes

The keynote talk summarized five years of work simulating observed mesoscale convective systems with the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. Excellent results are obtained when simulating squall line or other convective systems that are strongly forced by fronts or other lifting mechanisms. Less highly forced systems are difficult to model. The next topic in this colloquium was measurement of water vapor and other constituents of the hydrologic cycle. Impressive accuracy was shown measuring water vapor with both the airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system and the the ground-based Raman Lidar. NMC's plans for initializing land water hydrology in mesoscale models was presented before water vapor measurement concepts for GCIP were discussed. The subject of using satellite data to provide mesoscale moisture and wind analyses was next. Recent activities in modeling of moist processes in mesoscale systems was reported on. These modeling activities at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) used a hydrostatic, variable-resolution grid model. Next the spatial resolution effects of moisture budgets was discussed; in particular, the effects of temporal resolution on heat and moisture budgets for cumulus parameterization. The conclusion of this colloquium was on modeling scale interaction processes.

Cotton, William↗

The Mars reference atmosphere

A nominal atmospheric model of Mars is presented, with detailed consideration being given to the various sources of variability in the Martian atmosphere. A basic model for the midlatitude summer is outlined for the northern and southern hemispheres. Attention is given to meteorological variability due to winds, diurnal and seasonal pressure variations, temperature changes, and the effects of dust opacity, particularly on temperature stratification. Viking lander IR thermal mapper data are examined in terms of diurnal and latitudinal temperature variations, and cloud and haze formation and locations are discussed. Mass spectrometry of the atmosphere is used to describe the molecular abundances, and water vapor measurements are reviewed. Finally, radio occultation, UV airglow, and mass spectrometry of the Martian upper atmosphere are investigated, along with the temperature structure of the upper atmosphere.

Kliore, A.↗

High Spectral Resolution Lidar – Generation 2 (HSRL-2) Retrievals of Ocean Surface Wind Speed: Methodology and Evaluation

Ocean surface wind speed (i.e., wind speed 10 m above sea level) is a critical parameter used by atmospheric models to estimate the state of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). Accurate surface wind speed measurements in diverse locations are required to improve characterization of MABL dynamics and assess how models simulate large-scale phenomena related to climate change and global weather patterns. To provide these measurements, this study introduces and evaluates a new surface wind speed data product from the NASA Langley Research Center nadir-viewing High Spectral Resolution Lidar – generation 2 (HSRL-2) using data collected as part of the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. The HSRL-2 can directly measure vertically resolved aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles without additional constraints or assumptions, enabling the instrument to accurately derive atmospheric attenuation and directly determine surface reflectance (i.e., surface backscatter). Also, the high horizontal spatial resolution of the HSRL-2 retrievals (0.5 s or ∼ 75 m along track) allows the instrument to probe the fine-scale spatial variability in surface wind speeds over time along the flight track and over breaks in broken cloud fields. A rigorous evaluation of these retrievals is performed by comparing coincident HSRL-2 and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Airborne Vertical Atmosphere Profiling System (AVAPS) dropsonde data, owing to the joint deployment of these two instruments on the ACTIVATE King Air aircraft. These comparisons show correlations of 0.89, slopes of 1.04 and 1.17, and y intercepts of −0.13 and −1.05 m s−1 for linear and bisector regressions, respectively, and the overall accuracy is calculated to be 0.15 ± 1.80 m s−1. It is also shown that the dropsonde surface wind speed data most closely follow the HSRL-2 distribution of wave slope variance using the distribution proposed by Hu et al. (2008) rather than the ones proposed by Cox and Munk (1954) and Wu (1990) for surface wind speeds below 7 m s−1, with this category comprising most of the ACTIVATE data set. The retrievals are then evaluated separately for surface wind speeds below 7 m s−1 and between 7 and 13.3 m s−1 and show that the HSRL-2 retrieves surface wind speeds with a bias of ∼ 0.5 m s−1 and an error of ∼ 1.5 m s−1, a finding not apparent in the cumulative comparisons. Also, it is shown that the HSRL-2 retrievals are more accurate in the summer (−0.18 ± 1.52 m s−1) than in the winter (0.63 ± 2.07 m s−1), but the HSRL-2 is still able to make numerous (N=236) accurate retrievals in the winter. Overall, this study highlights the abilities and assesses the performance of the HSRL-2 surface wind speed retrievals, and it is hoped that further evaluation of these retrievals will be performed using other airborne and satellite data sets.

Sanja Dmitrovic↗

Atmospheric effects on the mapping of Martian thermal inertia and thermally derived albedo

The most widely used thermal inertia data for Mars assumes the atmospheric contribution is constant and equal to 2 percent of the maximum solar insolation. Haberle and Jakosky investigated the effect of including a dusty CO2 atmosphere and sensible heat exchange with the surface on thermal inertia. We recently utilized Haberle and Jakosky's coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the effects of such an atmosphere on the thermally derived albedo. The thermally derived albedo is the albedo which, together with the thermal inertia, provides model surface temperatures which best match the observed temperatures. New maps are presented of thermal inertia and thermally derived albedo which incorporate dust opacities derived from IRTM data.

Hayashi, J. N.↗

Influence of Ice Particle Surface Roughening on the Global Cloud Radiative Effect

Ice clouds influence the climate system by changing the radiation budget and large-scale circulation. Therefore, climate models need to have an accurate representation of ice clouds and their radiative effects. In this paper, new broadband parameterizations for ice cloud bulk scattering properties are developed for severely roughened ice particles. The parameterizations are based on a general habit mixture that includes nine habits (droxtals, hollow/solid columns, plates, solid/hollow bullet rosettes, aggregate of solid columns, and small/large aggregates of plates). The scattering properties for these individual habits incorporate recent advances in light-scattering computations. The influence of ice particle surface roughness on the ice cloud radiative effect is determined through simulations with the Fu-Liou and the GCM version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) codes and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). The differences in shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative effect at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface are determined for smooth and severely roughened ice particles. While the influence of particle roughening on the single-scattering properties is negligible in the LW, the results indicate that ice crystal roughness can change the SW forcing locally by more than 10 W m(exp −2) over a range of effective diameters. The global-averaged SW cloud radiative effect due to ice particle surface roughness is estimated to be roughly 1-2 W m(exp −2). The CAM results indicate that ice particle roughening can result in a large regional SW radiative effect and a small but nonnegligible increase in the global LW cloud radiative effect.

clouds↗

QUANTITATIVELY ASSESSING THE ROLE OF CLOUDS IN THE TRANSMISSION SPECTRUM OF GJ 1214b

Recent observations of the super-Earth GJ 1214b show that it has a relatively featureless transmission spectrum. One suggestion is that these observations indicate that the planet's atmosphere is vertically compact, perhaps due to a water-rich composition that yields a large mean molecular weight. Another suggestion is that the atmosphere is hydrogen/helium-rich with clouds that obscure predicted absorption features. Previous models that incorporate clouds have included their effect without a strong physical motivation for their existence. Here, we present model atmospheres of GJ 1214b that include physically motivated clouds of two types. We model the clouds that are present in chemical equilibrium, as has been suggested to occur on brown dwarfs, which include KCl and ZnS for this planet. We also include clouds that form as a result of photochemistry, forming a hydrocarbon haze layer. We use a photochemical kinetics model to understand the vertical distribution and available mass of haze-forming molecules. We model both solar and enhanced-metallicity cloudy models and determine the cloud properties necessary to match observations. In enhanced-metallicity atmospheres, we find that the equilibrium clouds can match the observations of GJ 1214b if they are lofted high into the atmosphere and have a low sedimentation efficiency (f{sub sed} = 0.1). We find that models with a variety of hydrocarbon haze properties can match the observations. Particle sizes from 0.01 to 0.25 μm can match the transmission spectrum with haze-forming efficiencies as low as 1%-5%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sensitivity of CAM5-simulated Arctic clouds and radiation to ice nucleation parameterization

Sensitivity of Arctic clouds and radiation in the Community Atmospheric Model, version 5, to the ice nucleation process is examined by testing a new physically based ice nucleation scheme that links the variation of ice nuclei (IN) number concentration to aerosol properties. The default scheme parameterizes the IN concentration simply as a function of ice supersaturation. The new scheme leads to a significant reduction in simulated IN concentration at all latitudes while changes in cloud amounts and properties are mainly seen at high- and midlatitude storm tracks. In the Arctic, there is a considerable increase in midlevel clouds and a decrease in low-level clouds, which result from the complex interaction among the cloud macrophysics, microphysics, and large-scale environment. The smaller IN concentrations result in an increase in liquid water path and a decrease in ice water path caused by the slowdown of the Bergeron–Findeisen process in mixed-phase clouds. Overall, there is an increase in the optical depth of Arctic clouds, which leads to a stronger cloud radiative forcing (net cooling) at the top of the atmosphere. The comparison with satellite data shows that the new scheme slightly improves low-level cloud simulations over most of the Arctic but produces too many midlevel clouds. Considerable improvements are seen in the simulated low-level clouds and their properties when compared with Arctic ground-based measurements. As a result, issues with the observations and the model–observation comparison in the Arctic region are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnostic Studies with GLA Fields

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System(GEOS-1 DAS), regarding heating rates, energetics, and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. 'Me GEOS-I and NOAA/NCEP global atmospheric angular momentum values are coherent on time scales down to about three days. Furthermore, they agree with the series of Earth angular momentum, as measured by tiny fluctuations in the rotation rate of the Earth, as variations in the length of day. The torques that effect such changes in atmospheric and Earth momentum are dominated by the influence of particular mountain systems, including the Rockies, Himalayas, and Andes, upon mountain torques on time scales shorter than about two weeks. Other project areas included collaboration with Goddard Space Flight Center to examine the impact of mountainous areas and the treatments of parameterizations on diagnoses of the atmosphere. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Salstein, David A.↗

Comments concerning magnetic fields as a possible cause of rapid, irregular variability of early-type stars

It is noted that it is helpful to divide the atmosphere of an early-type star into two parts: a photosphere and a mantle. The photosphere can be modeled satisfactorily by normal model-atmosphere procedures. When modeling the mantle, one must take account of the deposition of nonradiative heat and momentum and one should recognize that the mantles of hot stars do not appear to be uniform or spherically symmetric. Five areas of discrepancy between classical theory and observation are noted and a possible way of modeling the mantles of early-type stars is outlined. The model consists of arcades of magnetic loops which form helmet-type structures in the equatorial band of the star, and of coronal-hole-type structures emmanating from weak unipolar regions which are chiefly distributed at polar latitudes.

Underhill, A. B.↗

DISCOVERY OF AN ULTRAMASSIVE PULSATING WHITE DWARF

We announce the discovery of the most massive pulsating hydrogen-atmosphere white dwarf (WD) ever discovered, GD 518. Model atmosphere fits to the optical spectrum of this star show it is a 12, 030 {+-} 210 K WD with a log g =9.08 {+-} 0.06, which corresponds to a mass of 1.20 {+-} 0.03 M{sub Sun }. Stellar evolution models indicate that the progenitor of such a high-mass WD endured a stable carbon-burning phase, producing an oxygen-neon-core WD. The discovery of pulsations in GD 518 thus offers the first opportunity to probe the interior of a WD with a possible oxygen-neon core. Such a massive WD should also be significantly crystallized at this temperature. The star exhibits multi-periodic luminosity variations at timescales ranging from roughly 425 to 595 s and amplitudes up to 0.7%, consistent in period and amplitude with the observed variability of typical ZZ Ceti stars, which exhibit non-radial g-mode pulsations driven by a hydrogen partial ionization zone. Successfully unraveling both the total mass and core composition of GD 518 provides a unique opportunity to investigate intermediate-mass stellar evolution, and can possibly place an upper limit to the mass of a carbon-oxygen-core WD, which in turn constrains Type Ia supernovae progenitor systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗