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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

The Fall and Rise of the Global Climate Model

Abstract Global models are an essential tool for climate projections, but conventional coarse‐resolution atmospheric general circulation models suffer from errors both in their parameterized cloud physics and in their representation of climatically important circulation features. A notable recent study by Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) documents a global model capable of reproducing the regime‐based effect of aerosols on cloud liquid water path expected from observational evidence. This may represent a significant advance in cloud process fidelity in global models. Such models can be expected to give a better estimate of the effective radiative forcing of the climate. If this advance in cloud process representation can be matched by advances in the representation of circulation features such as monsoons, then such models may also be able to navigate the complex tangle between spatially heterogeneous aerosol–cloud interactions and regional circulation patterns. This tight link between aerosol and circulation results in anthropogenic perturbations of climate variables of societal importance, such as regional rainfall distributions. Upcoming global models with km‐scale resolution may improve the regional circulation and be able to take advantage of the Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) improvement in cloud physics. If so, an era of significantly improved regional climate projection capabilities may soon dawn. If not, then the improvement in cloud physics might spur intensified efforts on problems in model dynamics. Either way, based on the rapid changes in aerosol emissions in the near future, learning to make reliable projections based on biased models is a skill that will not go out of style.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving BC Mixing State and CCN Activity Representation With Machine Learning in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 (CAM6)

Abstract Representing mixing state of black carbon (BC) is challenging for global climate models (GCMs). The Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) represents aerosols as fully internal mixtures with uniform composition within each aerosol mode, resulting in high degree of internal mixing of BC with non‐BC species and large mass ratio of coating to BC ( R BC , the mass ratio of non‐BC species to BC in BC‐containing particles). To improve BC mixing state representation, we coupled a machine learning (ML) model of BC mixing state index trained on particle‐resolved simulations to the CAM6 with MAM4 (MAM4‐ML). In MAM4‐ML, we use R BC to partition accumulation mode particles into two new modes, BC‐free particles and BC‐containing particles. We adjust R BC to make the modeled BC mixing state index ( χ mode ) match the one predicted by the ML model ( χ ML ). On a global average, the mass fraction of BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode decreases from 100% (MAM4‐default) to 48% (MAM4‐ML). The globally averaged χ mode decreases from 78% (MAM4‐default) to 63% (MAM4‐ML, 19% reduction) and agrees well with χ ML (66%). The R BC decreases by 52% for accumulation mode and better agrees with observations. The hygroscopicity drops by 9% for BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode, leading to a 20% reduction in the BC activation fraction. The surface BC concentration increases most (6.9%) in the Arctic, and the BC burden increases by 4%, globally. Our study highlights the application of the ML model for improving key aerosol processes in GCMs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Anthropogenic extremely low volatility organics (ELVOCs) Govern the Growth of Molecular Clusters over the Southern Great Plains during the Springtime

New particle formation (NPF) and growth govern cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations in many regions. The mechanisms governing the nucleation of molecular clusters vary substantially in different regions of the atmosphere. Additionally, the growth of these clusters from ~2 to 20 nm sizes is often governed by the availability of extremely low volatility organic vapours (ELVOCs). While the pathways to ELVOC formation from the oxidation of biogenic monoterpenes with ozone is better understood, the chemical and mechanistic pathways for ELVOC formation from oxidation of anthropogenic organics are not well understood. We integrate measurements and three-dimensional regional model simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to understand the processes governing new particle formation and growth and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in Oklahoma, and contrast it with a site within the Bankhead National Forest (BNF), Alabama in Southeast USA, where 5-year long measurements will begin in 2024. Simulations show that nucleation rates are at least an order of magnitude higher at SGP compared to BNF during the springtime days (April 28 and May 14, 2016), largely due to lower H2SO4 concentrations at BNF, which are needed for nucleation. In addition, the larger CS at BNF (compared to SGP) increase the loss of molecular clusters by coagulation to pre-existing particles. Among the 8 different nucleation mechanisms in WRF-Chem, we find that the amine+H2SO4 nucleation mechanism dominates at the SGP site, while the pure organic ion induced nucleation mechanism dominates over BNF. Through various WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations, we find that anthropogenic ELVOCs are critical for explaining the growth of newly formed particles and the resulting number size distribution observed near the surface at the SGP site during the daytime. In addition, we show that treating organic particles as semisolid, with strong diffusion-limited uptake of organic vapours, brings model predictions into closer agreement with the observed evolution of particle size distribution. Simulations also predict that anthropogenic SOA, formed by the oxidation of aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), is the dominant organic aerosol component at SGP, while biogenic SOA dominates particle composition at the BNF site in Southeast USA on these days.

Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.↗

Key drivers of cloud response to surface-active organics

Aerosol-cloud interactions constitute the largest source of uncertainty in global radiative forcing estimates, hampering our understanding of climate evolution. Recent empirical evidence suggests surface tension depression by organic aerosol to significantly influence the formation of cloud droplets, and hence cloud optical properties. In climate models, however, surface tension of water is generally assumed when predicting cloud droplet concentrations. Here we show that the sensitivity of cloud microphysics, optical properties and shortwave radiative effects to the surface phase are dictated by an interplay between the aerosol particle size distribution, composition, water availability and atmospheric dynamics. We demonstrate that accounting for the surface phase becomes essential in clean environments in which ultrafine particle sources are present. Through detailed sensitivity analysis, quantitative constraints on the key drivers – aerosol particle number concentrations, organic fraction and fixed updraft velocity – are derived for instances of significant cloud microphysical susceptibilities to the surface phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting the influence of particle size on the glass transition temperature and viscosity of secondary organic material

Abstract Atmospheric aerosols can assume liquid, amorphous semi-solid or glassy, and crystalline phase states. Particle phase state plays a critical role in understanding and predicting aerosol impacts on human health, visibility, cloud formation, and climate. Melting point depression increases with decreasing particle diameter and is predicted by the Gibbs–Thompson relationship. This work reviews existing data on the melting point depression to constrain a simple parameterization of the process. The parameter $$\xi $$ ξ describes the degree to which particle size lowers the melting point and is found to vary between 300 and 1800 K nm for a wide range of particle compositions. The parameterization is used together with existing frameworks for modeling the temperature and RH dependence of viscosity to predict the influence of particle size on the glass transition temperature and viscosity of secondary organic aerosol formed from the oxidation of $$\alpha $$ α -pinene. Literature data are broadly consistent with the predictions. The model predicts a sharp decrease in viscosity for particles less than 100 nm in diameter. It is computationally efficient and suitable for inclusion in models to evaluate the potential influence of the phase change on atmospheric processes. New experimental data of the size-dependence of particle viscosity for atmospheric aerosol mimics are needed to thoroughly validate the predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A single-photon lidar observes atmospheric clouds at decimeter scales: resolving droplet activation within cloud base

Abstract Clouds, crucial for understanding climate, begin with droplet formation from aerosols, but observations of this fleeting activation step are lacking in the atmosphere. Here we use a time-gated time-correlated single-photon counting lidar to observe cloud base structures at decimeter scales. Results show that the air–cloud interface is not a perfect boundary but rather a transition zone where the transformation of aerosol particles into cloud droplets occurs. The observed distributions of first-arriving photons within the transition zone reflect vertical development of a cloud, including droplet activation and condensational growth. Further, the highly resolved vertical profile of backscattered photons above the cloud base enables remote estimation of droplet concentration, an elusive but critical property to understanding aerosol–cloud interactions. Our results show the feasibility of remotely monitoring cloud properties at submeter scales, thus providing much-needed insights into the impacts of atmospheric pollution on clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions that influence climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m -2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability

Since the 1970s, air pollutant emissions controls in the United States (US) have lowered concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols, which have opposing radiative effects on surface temperature. Using a pair of initial-condition ensembles generated by a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, we simulate the “world avoided” by US air pollution controls. In this counterfactual world, we find tropospheric column O 3 increases, robust to natural internal variability, extending across the Northern Hemisphere. Robust aerosol increases, dominated by sulfate, remain localized near the US. Wintertime Northwest Atlantic cloud droplet number concentration is particularly sensitive to US aerosol. While an ensemble mean US surface cooling signal (−0.4 °C) implies that aerosol-driven cooling prevails over any O 3 -induced warming, we find that large regional internal variability will confound its detection in any single transient realization. Larger signal-to-noise ratios for composition versus climate variables underscore the greater detectability of emissions-driven changes in tropospheric composition compared to their associated climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental and computational study of particle formation kinetics in UF6 hydrolysis

The formation and growth of UO 2 F 2 particles by gas-phase UF 6 hydrolysis remains of interest to actinide chemistry researchers. The total number concentration of the UO 2 F 2 aerosol particles that can be produced in the reaction is regulated primarily by the availability of water molecules under our reactor conditions. An increase in water molecule concentration corresponds with a higher amount and larger size of UO 2 F 2 aerosol particles produced. The growth rates of aerosol particles appear to approach a single number in the range of [0.05 ± 0.03–0.08 ± 0.04] (nm s -1 ), as the molar ratio of water to UF 6 decreases below 1. The size of primary particles produced from the UF 6 hydrolysis under water-deprived conditions was estimated to be 3.6 ± 0.4 nm. As the molar ratio became greater than 1.7, the size of primary particles increased with increased availability of water molecules. The primary particle model developed in this work predicted a size range for the UO 2 F 2 primary particles similar to that estimated based on the data from gas-phase UF 6 hydrolysis experiments. This result suggests that the volume-driven coalescence process assumption used in the derivation of the primary particle model was reasonable. The ability to precisely control the availability of water molecules and reaction time could lead to the production of nearly monodispersed aerosol particles. This finding has significant implications in the engineering and manufacturing of fuel powder materials and possibly the future development and deployment of environmental sampling apparatus.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Local electronic structure of histidine in aqueous solution

Here, the local electronic structure of aqueous histidine, an amino acid important in nature and biology, is revealed by aerosol X-ray photoemission spectroscopy. A detailed picture of the photoionization dynamics emerges by tuning the pH of the aqueous solution from which the aerosols are generated, allowing us to report the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) of histidine. Assignment of the experimental photoelectron spectra of the C1s and N1s levels allows the determination of the protonation state of histidine in these aqueous aerosols and is confirmed by density functional calculations. XPS spectra show that at pH = 1, both imidazole and amine group nitrogens are protonated, at pH = 7, the amine group nitrogen is protonated and the carboxyl group carbon is deprotonated resulting in a zwitterionic structure, and at pH = 13, only the carboxyl group remains deprotonated. Comparison of these results with previous experimental and theoretical results suggests that X-ray spectroscopy on aqueous aerosols can provide a convenient and simple way of probing their electronic structure in aqueous solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Morphological Characterization of Uranyl Fluoride Particles via Atomic Force Microscopy

Uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) undergoes a rapid hydrolysis reaction when exposed to atmospheric water. In addition to producing hazardous HF gas, the hydrolysis reaction produces uranyl fluoride (UO 2 F 2 ), a radioactive solid phase particulate material. Because of the technological utility of UF 6 in the nuclear fuel cycle, understanding the transport properties of UO 2 F 2 aerosol produced via UF 6 hydrolysis is important for accident scenarios. Moreover, the fundamental chemical and physical properties of the UF 6 hydrolysis reaction are not completely understood. Recently, several experiments on the aerosol phase properties of UO 2 F 2 produced in this way have shown that under most relevant conditions, the particle size distribution (PSD) of UO 2 F 2 can be extremely small, approximately 3 to 5 nm, which is well below the threshold that can be routinely observed via scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Although readily observable in the aerosol phase, observation of nanometer-sized particles in the condensed phase (i.e. deposited on surfaces) remains a challenge. Here, in this study, we have used atomic force microscopy (AFM) to study the PSD and morphological characteristics of UO 2 F 2 deposited at low and high concentrations under different humidity conditions, a primary variable in the hydrolysis reaction. Here, we find strong agreement between PSD measured in the aerosol phase via scanning mobility particle sizing and PSD measured via AFM, with particle sizes peaked below 4 nm for low-humidity conditions. At higher humidity, the distribution is centered around 5 to 10 nm but extends up to 20 nm. These results are in stark contrast to previous measurements using SEM that show PSD on the order of 300- to 1000-nm particle sizes; moreover, these are the first direct measurements of individual particles of UO 2 F 2 having been produced via UF 6 hydrolysis deposited on surfaces. These measurements, therefore, open a new avenue for collecting and detecting UO 2 F 2 in the condensed phase and further refine the PSD, which is critical for environmental transport determinations.

Uranium hexafluoride↗

Development and validation of a humidified CAPS-PMSSA with an improved methodology to calculate the truncation correction factor

Absorbing aerosols play an important role in the Earth’s radiation budget, and current uncertainties associated with their radiative impacts remain substantial. An element of this uncertainty derives from insufficient understanding of the extent to which water, as a coating on absorbing particles, enhances the absorption. Here, we describe and characterize the performance of a cavity-attenuated phase shift single scatter albedo spectrometer (CAPS-PMSSA) system that has been modified to enable concurrent aerosol extinction and scattering measurements, from which aerosol absorption is derived, at relative humidities up to ~90%. The modified instrument is referred to as the humidified CAPS (HCAPS). Additionally, we develop and validate an update to a method to calculate the truncation correction factor, used to correct the scattering measurements, that can account for the effects of particle growth and compositional changes resulting from water uptake. The method can be applied to experiments that use either size-selected or polydisperse aerosol samples of either known or unknown composition. Overall, we show that measurements made with the HCAPS, when processed using the updated truncation correction method, enable accurate measurement of the influence of water uptake on light absorption.

Dal Porto, Rachael [University of California, Davi↗

A Case Study on Pathogen Transport, Deposition, Evaporation and Transmission: Linking High-Fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations to Probability of Infection

A high-fidelity, low-Mach computational fluid dynamics simulation tool that includes evaporating droplets and variable-density turbulent flow coupling is well-suited to ascertain transmission probability and supports risk mitigation methods development for airborne infectious diseases such as COVID-19. A multi-physics large-eddy simulation-based paradigm is used to explore droplet and aerosol pathogen transport from a synthetic cough emanating from a kneeling humanoid. For an outdoor configuration that mimics the recent open-space social distance strategy of San Francisco, maximum primary droplet deposition distances are shown to approach 8.1 m in a moderate wind configuration with the aerosol plume transported in excess of 15 m. In quiescent conditions, the aerosol plume extends to approximately 4 m before the emanating pulsed jet becomes neutrally buoyant. A dose–response model, which is based on previous SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) data, is exercised on the high-fidelity aerosol transport database to establish relative risk at eighteen virtual receptor probe locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Short-term impacts of 2017 western North American wildfires on meteorology, the atmosphere’s energy budget, and premature mortality

Abstract Western North American fires have been increasing in magnitude and severity over the last few decades. The complex coupling of fires with the atmospheric energy budget and meteorology creates short-term feedbacks on regional weather altering the amount of pollution to which Americans are exposed. Using a combination of model simulations and observations, this study shows that the severe fires in the summer of 2017 increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations leading to a cooling of the air at the surface, reductions in sensible heat fluxes, and a lowering of the planetary boundary layer height over land. This combination of lower-boundary layer height and increased aerosol pollution from the fires reduces air quality. We estimate that from start of August to end of October 2017, ∼400 premature deaths occurred within the western US as a result of short-term exposure to elevated PM 2.5 from fire smoke. As North America confronts a warming climate with more fires the short-term climate and pollution impacts of increased fire activity should be assessed within policy aimed to minimize impacts of climate change on society.

Bernstein, Diana N. (ORCID:0000000308279336)↗

eagles-project/asediag

Aerosol process analysis in model-native Spectral Element (SE) grid. Aerosol Diagnostics on Model Native Grid is a Python-based tool designed for diagnosing aerosol processes in E3SM. It is particularly designed to analyze simulation data on the model-native spectral element (SE) grid, soit is also known as Aerosol SE Diagnostics or “asediag”

Hassan, Taufiq↗

Effects from Time Dependence of Ice Nucleus Activity for Contrasting Cloud Types

Abstract The role of time-dependent freezing of ice nucleating particles (INPs) is evaluated with the “Aerosol–Cloud” (AC) model in 1) deep convection observed over Oklahoma during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E), 2) orographic clouds observed over North California during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX), and 3) supercooled, stratiform clouds over the United Kingdom, observed during the Aerosol Properties, Processes And Influences on the Earth’s climate (APPRAISE) campaign. AC uses the dynamical core of the WRF Model and has hybrid bin–bulk microphysics and a 3D mesoscale domain. AC is validated against coincident aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations for all three cases. Filtered concentrations of ice (>0.1–0.2 mm) agree with those observed at all sampled levels. AC predicts the INP activity of various types of aerosol particles with an empirical parameterization (EP), which follows a singular approach (no time dependence). Here, the EP is modified to represent time-dependent INP activity by a purely empirical approach, using our published laboratory observations of time-dependent INP activity. In all simulated clouds, the inclusion of time dependence increases the predicted INP activity of mineral dust particles by 0.5–1 order of magnitude. However, there is little impact on the cloud glaciation because the total ice is mostly (80%–90%) from secondary ice production (SIP) at levels warmer than about −36°C. The Hallett–Mossop process and fragmentation in ice–ice collisions together initiate about 70% of the total ice, whereas fragmentation during both raindrop freezing and sublimation contributes <10%. Overall, total ice concentrations and SIP are unaffected by time-dependent INP activity. In the simulated APPRAISE case, the main causes of persistence of long-lived clouds and precipitation are predicted to be SIP in weak embedded convection and reactivation following recirculation of dust particles in supercooled layer cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Hailstone Temporal Variability and Contributing Factors over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗