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At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Services for Agriculture: Tools for Informing Decisions Relating to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Wine Industry

Australia’s changing climate is already impacting the agriculture sector and will continue to do so in the future. To help respond to these impacts, the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform presents readily accessible climate data, including future climate projections, relevant to specific agricultural commodities. This wine industry example aims to demonstrate the functionality and utility of the CSA for national use across a broad range of commodities. Methods and Results. The platform includes commodity-relevant climate indices designed in consultation with experts to ensure that they are as salient to producers as possible; the wine-grape specific indices include measures of growing season temperature, rainfall, extreme heat, and frost. Here, we describe the research behind the wine-grape specific indices and present sample outputs from the CSA platform for a site within a selected winegrowing region. We note the CSA platform has been developed through an extensive and continuing user engagement initiative, ensuring it meets the needs of the agriculture community as they grapple with how to make decisions based on longer term climate projections. Conclusions. Provision of past, seasonal outlook, and future climate information for Australia and for a range of important agricultural commodities can help improve on-farm planning and decision-making to respond to climate risks. The wine industry provides a leading example of how to use these data for decision-making, noting ongoing adjustments will be needed. Significance of the Study. The CSA platform brings together historical climate data, seasonal climate outlooks, and future climate projections to assist agricultural producers to better manage climate variability and climate change. It aims to nationalise this information for all major agricultural commodities in Australia. We use wine production as a demonstration case here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Speciation and Aqueous Dissolution of Macronutrients in Fire Ash: Variation across Ecosystems and the Effects on Nutrient Cycling

This study investigated the speciation and aqueous dissolution of macronutrients in fire ash from diverse ecosystems and speciation of ash and smoke from laboratory burning, exploring the variations and their causes. The speciation of phosphorus (P), calcium (Ca), and potassium (K) in fire ash from five globally distributed ecosystems was characterized by using X-ray absorption spectroscopy and sequential fractionation. Aqueous dissolution of the macronutrients was measured by batch experiments at acidic and alkaline pHs. The results showed that P existed mainly as Ca phosphates, Ca as double carbonates, calcite, and sulfates, and most K was associated with Ca carbonates. Mineralogy and the relative abundance of the species were primarily controlled by elemental stoichiometry and fire temperature. Differences in Ca and P speciation existed between ash and smoke from laboratory burning, possibly caused by the temperature difference and/or mass fractionation during burning. The rates, extents, and pH dependencies of macronutrient dissolution differed among macronutrients and depended on their speciation, with K being highly soluble and the P and Ca regulated by solution pH. The variability in ash macronutrient chemistry and ecosystemspecific fire ash loads resulted in varying loads and availability of individual macronutrient from fire among ecosystems. This study provides a mechanistic understanding of how fires transform the chemistry of macronutrients and affect macronutrient returns to soils across different ecosystems, which is essential for evaluating the disturbance to ecosystem nutrient cycling by fires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Private, public, and bottled drinking water: Shared contaminant-mixture exposures and effects challenge

Background: Humans are primary drivers of environmental–contaminant exposures worldwide, including in drinking-water (DW). In the United States, point-of-use DW (POU–DW) is supplied via private tapwater (TW), public-supply TW, and bottled water (BW). Differences in management, monitoring, and messaging and lack of directly–intercomparable exposure data influence the actual and perceived quality and safety of different DW supplies and directly impact consumer decision–making. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta-analysis (quantitative synthesis) of POU–DW contaminant–mixture exposures and corresponding potential human–health effects of private-TW, public-TW, and BW by aggregating exposure results and harmonizing apical–health–benchmark–weighted and bioactivity–weighted effects predictions across previous studies by this research group. Discussion: Simultaneous exposures to multiple inorganic and organic contaminants of known or suspected human-health concern are common across all three DW supplies, with substantial variability observed in each and no systematic difference in predicted cumulative risk between supplies. Differences in contaminant or contaminant–class exposures, with important implications for DW–quality improvements, were observed and attributed to corresponding differences in regulation and compliance monitoring. Conclusion: The results indicate that human-health risks from contaminant exposures are common to and comparable in all three DW–supplies, including BW. Importantly, this study’s target analytical coverage, which exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the breadth of contaminant mixtures in the environment and potentially present in DW. Thus, the results emphasize the need for improved understanding of the adverse human-health implications of long-term exposures to low–level inorganic–/organic–contaminant mixtures across all three distribution pipelines and do not support commercial messaging of BW as a systematically safer alternative to public-TW. Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking–water treatment is necessary to reduce risks associated with long-term DW–contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations, and to reduce environmental waste and plastics contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The variability structure function of the highest luminosity quasars on short time-scales

ABSTRACT The stochastic photometric variability of quasars is known to follow a random-walk phenomenology on emission time-scales of months to years. Some high-cadence rest-frame optical monitoring in the past has hinted at a suppression of variability amplitudes on shorter time-scales of a few days or weeks, opening the question of what drives the suppression and how it might scale with quasar properties. Here, we study a few thousand of the highest luminosity quasars in the sky, mostly in the luminosity range of $L_{\rm bol}$$=[46.4, 47.3]$ and redshift range of $z=[0.7, 2.4]$. We use a data set from the NASA/Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System facility with nightly cadence, weather permitting, which has been used before to quantify strong regularity in longer term rest-frame-UV variability. As we focus on a careful treatment of short time-scales across the sample, we find that a linear function is sufficient to describe the UV variability structure function. Although the result can not rule out the existence of breaks in some groups completely, a simpler model is usually favoured under this circumstance. In conclusion, the data are consistent with a single-slope random walk across rest-frame time-scales of $\Delta t=[10, 250]$ d.

Tang, Ji-Jia (ORCID:0000000218600886)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid changes in agricultural land use and hydrology in the Driftless Region

Annual cropping systems are common in the Driftless Region of the U.S. Midwest, but soil degradation is prone to happen in such systems due to the rugged topography of the region. Recent rapid increases in row crop area have been noted in this region, with annual precipitation and hydrologic extremes on the rise in recent decades. The aim of this research to use geospatial datasets and tools in order to assess the regional trends in land use, precipitation, and hydrologic change and quantify the relationship between these environmental trends. Between 2006 and 2017, substantial row crop expansion of 10,000 ha or more was common across HUC 8 (Hydrologic Unit Code 8) watersheds in our study area. Expansion occurred mainly on steeper slopes, converting existing grasslands or alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) to row crops. Classifying land as planted (in row crops), plantable (in row crops or could be converted), and unplantable (unable to be converted) revealed that Driftless Region watersheds have ~30–50% of plantable land available for future expansion. Annual precipitation was highly variable during this time period but had a general increasing trend. On average, precipitation showed higher correlation to streamflow compared to row crop expansion across 27 USGS river gage drainage basins in our study area. However, when the increase in row crop area was significant and was accompanied by increasing precipitation, stronger correlation between row crop area and annual streamflow was exhibited. This finding suggests that row crop expansion acts to enhance the effects of increasing precipitation on local hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing the reliability of interpretable neural networks in geoscience using the Madden–Julian oscillation

Abstract. We test the reliability of two neural network interpretation techniques, backward optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, within geoscientific applications by applying them to a commonly studied geophysical phenomenon, the Madden–Julian oscillation. The Madden–Julian oscillation is a multi-scale pattern within the tropical atmosphere that has been extensively studied over the past decades, which makes it an ideal test case to ensure the interpretability methods can recover the current state of knowledge regarding its spatial structure. The neural networks can, indeed, reproduce the current state of knowledge and can also provide new insights into the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its relationships with atmospheric state variables. The neural network identifies the phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation twice as accurately as a linear regression approach, which means that nonlinearities used by the neural network are important to the structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Interpretations of the neural network show that it accurately captures the spatial structures of the Madden–Julian oscillation, suggest that the nonlinearities of the Madden–Julian oscillation are manifested through the uniqueness of each event, and offer physically meaningful insights into its relationship with atmospheric state variables. We also use the interpretations to identify the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and find that the conventionally defined extended seasons should be shifted later by 1 month. More generally, this study suggests that neural networks can be reliably interpreted for geoscientific applications and may thereby serve as a dependable method for testing geoscientific hypotheses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2019

Arctic River Delta Morphologic Variability and Implications for Riverine Fluxes to the Coast

Arctic riverine fluxes are anticipated to increase as the Arctic warms and have a large impact on the Arctic ocean. Deltas modify the spatial and temporal distributions of riverine fluxes, but no thorough studies have been conducted to analyze Arctic delta morphologies to determine their influence on land–ocean fluxes. We performed an analysis of six high–latitude deltas (Colville, Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Yenisei, and Yukon) to characterize delta morphologies and determine the influence of morphology on the distribution of fluxes to the coast. All six deltas deliver material to the coast at discrete locations across small areas despite differences in delta shoreline length. Large Arctic deltas exhibit large variability in channel width, which we hypothesize is due to a feedback with ice cover and retreat that favors the growth of large channels over geologic timescales. Spatial variability in island sizes suggests variability in channel activity, island nourishment, and susceptibility to drowning by sea level rise. Potential lake storage is highest on the Mackenzie delta, thus providing a means for reducing nutrient and sediment loading of the coastal ocean. Here, the connected lakes are also prevalent on the Colville and Yukon deltas, suggesting that these deltas can filter riverine fluxes even when the deltas are not flooded. Differences in Arctic delta morphologies can be explained by varying levels of riverine and marine influence, antecedent topography, and local channel dynamics. Ice cover also plays a large role in controlling Arctic delta morphologies and dynamics that has not been previously represented in interpretations of existing delta metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward the validation of crowdsourced experiments for lightness perception

Crowdsource platforms have been used to study a range of perceptual stimuli such as the graphical perception of scatterplots and various aspects of human color perception. Given the lack of control over a crowdsourced participant’s experimental setup, there are valid concerns on the use of crowdsourcing for color studies as the perception of the stimuli is highly dependent on the stimulus presentation. Here, we propose that the error due to a crowdsourced experimental design can be effectively averaged out because the crowdsourced experiment can be accommodated by the Thurstonian model as the convolution of two normal distributions, one that is perceptual in nature and one that captures the error due to variability in stimulus presentation. Based on this, we provide a mathematical estimate for the sample size needed to produce a crowdsourced experiment with the same power as the corresponding in-person study. We tested this claim by replicating a large-scale, crowdsourced study of human lightness perception with a diverse sample with a highly controlled, in-person study with a sample taken from psychology undergraduates. Our claim was supported by the replication of the results from the latter. These findings suggest that, with sufficient sample size, color vision studies may be completed online, giving access to a larger and more representative sample. With this framework at hand, experimentalists have the validation that choosing either many online participants or few in person participants will not sacrifice the impact of their results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variable X-Ray Reverberation in the Rapidly Accreting Active Galactic Nucleus Ark 564: The Response of the Soft Excess to the Changing Geometry of the Inner Accretion Flow

X-ray reverberation, which exploits the time delays between variability in different energy bands as a function of Fourier frequency, probes the structure of the inner accretion disks and X-ray coronae of active galactic nuclei. We present a systematic X-ray spectroscopic and reverberation study of the high-Eddington-ratio narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy Ark 564, using over 900 ks of XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations spanning 13 yr. The time-averaged spectra can be well described by a model consisting of a coronal continuum, relativistic disk reflection, warm Comptonization, and three warm absorbers. Leveraging the high X-ray brightness of Ark 564, we are able to resolve the time evolution of the spectra and contemporaneous reverberation lags. The soft-band lag relative to the continuum increases with the X-ray flux, while Fe Kα lags are detected in only a subset of epochs and do not correlate with soft lags. Models based on a lamppost corona and reflection from a standard thin disk can broadly reproduce the observed lag-energy spectra of low-flux epochs; however, additional reverberation from the warm Comptonized atmosphere is required to explain the soft lags observed in high-flux epochs. A vertically puffed-up inner disk and a variable, vertically extended corona can better explain the observed evolution of the lags and covariance spectra. Our study underscores the importance of multiepoch, multiband analyses for a comprehensive understanding the inner accretion disk and corona.

Active galactic nuclei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining Planetary Boundary Layer Height Retrievals From Micropulse‐Lidar at Multiple ARM Sites Around the World

Abstract Knowledge of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is crucial for various applications in atmospheric and environmental sciences. Lidar measurements are frequently used to monitor the evolution of the PBLH, providing more frequent observations than traditional radiosonde‐based methods. However, lidar‐derived PBLH estimates have substantial uncertainties, contingent upon the retrieval algorithm used. In addressing this, we applied the Different Thermo‐Dynamic Stabilities (DTDS) algorithm to establish a PBLH data set at five separate Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites across the globe. Both the PBLH methodology and the products are subject to rigorous assessments in terms of their uncertainties and constraints, juxtaposing them with other products. The DTDS‐derived product consistently aligns with radiosonde PBLH estimates, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.77 across all sites. This study delves into a detailed examination of the strengths and limitations of PBLH data sets with respect to both radiosonde‐derived and other lidar‐based estimates of the PBLH by exploring their respective errors and uncertainties. It is found that varying techniques and definitions can lead to diverse PBLH retrievals due to the inherent intricacy and variability of the boundary layer. Our DTDS‐derived PBLH data set outperforms existing products derived from ceilometer data, offering a more precise representation of the PBLH. This extensive data set paves the way for advanced studies and an improved understanding of boundary‐layer dynamics, with valuable applications in weather forecasting, climate modeling, and environmental studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Meiyu ) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu , produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Tung, Yu‐Shiang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing Carbon Cycle Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Mean Net CO 2 Flux and its Inter-Annual Variability

Drylands occupy ~40% of the land surface and are thought to dominate global carbon (C) cycle inter-annual variability (IAV). Therefore, it is imperative that global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which form the land component of IPCC earth system models, are able to accurately simulate dryland vegetation and biogeochemical processes. However, compared to more mesic ecosystems, TBMs have not been widely tested or optimized using in situ dryland CO 2 fluxes. Here, for this work, we address this gap using a Bayesian data assimilation system and 89 site-years of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 southwest US Ameriflux sites to optimize the C cycle parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The sites span high elevation forest ecosystems, which are a mean sink of C, and low elevation shrub and grass ecosystems that are either a mean C sink or “pivot” between an annual C sink and source. We find that using the default (prior) model parameters drastically underestimates both the mean annual NEE at the forested mean C sink sites and the NEE IAV across all sites. Our analysis demonstrated that optimizing phenology parameters are particularly useful in improving the model's ability to capture both the magnitude and sign of the NEE IAV. At the forest sites, optimizing C allocation, respiration, and biomass and soil C turnover parameters reduces the underestimate in simulated mean annual NEE. Our study demonstrates that all TBMs need to be calibrated for dryland ecosystems before they are used to determine dryland contributions to global C cycle variability and long-term carbon-climate feedbacks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements of multijet event isotropies using optimal transport with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of novel event shapes quantifying the isotropy of collider events is performed in 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions with $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV centre-of-mass energy recorded with the ATLAS detector at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider. These event shapes are defined as the Wasserstein distance between collider events and isotropic reference geometries. This distance is evaluated by solving optimal transport problems, using the ‘Energy-Mover’s Distance’. Isotropic references with cylindrical and circular symmetries are studied, to probe the symmetries of interest at hadron colliders. The novel event-shape observables defined in this way are infrared- and collinear-safe, have improved dynamic range and have greater sensitivity to isotropic radiation patterns than other event shapes. The measured event-shape variables are corrected for detector effects, and presented in inclusive bins of jet multiplicity and the scalar sum of the two leading jets’ transverse momenta. The measured distributions are provided as inputs to future Monte Carlo tuning campaigns and other studies probing fundamental properties of QCD and the production of hadronic final states up to the TeV-scale.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal Variability of Southeast US Rainfall in an Eddying Global Coupled Model

Abstract Ocean variability is a dominant source of remote rainfall predictability, but in many cases the physical mechanisms driving this predictability are not fully understood. This study examines how ocean mesoscales (i.e., the Gulf Stream SST front) affect decadal Southeast US (SEUS) rainfall, arguing that the local imprint of large‐scale teleconnections is sensitive to resolved mesoscale features. Based on global coupled model experiments with eddying and eddy‐parameterizing ocean, we find that a resolved Gulf Stream improves localized rainfall and remote circulation response in the SEUS. The eddying model generally improves the air‐sea interactions in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Subtropical High that modulate SEUS rainfall over decadal timescales. The eddy‐parameterizing simulation fails to capture the sharp SST gradient associated with the Gulf Stream and overestimates the role of tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the SEUS rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Post-fire soil emissions of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) across global ecosystems: a review

Wildfires may increase soil emissions of trace nitrogen (N) gases like nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) by changing soil physicochemical conditions and altering microbial processes like nitrification and denitrification. When 34 studies were synthesized, we found a significant increase in both NO and N 2 O emissions up to 1 year post-fire across studies spanning ecosystems globally. However, when fluxes were separated by ecosystem type, we found that individual ecosystem types responded uniquely to fire. Forest soils tended to emit more N 2 O after fire, but there was no significant effect on NO. Shrubland soils showed significant increases in both NO and N 2 O emissions after fires; often with extremely large but short-lived NO pulses occurring immediately after fire. Grassland NO emissions increased after fire, but the size of this effect was small relative to shrublands. N 2 O emissions from burned grasslands were highly variable with no significant effect. To better understand the variation in responses to fire across global ecosystems, more consistent measurements of variables recognized as important controls on soil fluxes of NO and N 2 O (e.g., N cycling rates, soil water content, pH, and substrate availability) are needed across studies. We also suggest that fire-specific elements like burn severity, microbial community succession, and the presence of char be considered by future studies. Our synthesis suggests that fires can exacerbate ecosystem N loss long after they burn, increasing soil emissions of NO and N 2 O with implications for ecosystem N loss, climate, and regional air quality as wildfires increase globally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation of 1 J C,F Coupling in Carbon–Fluorine Bonds on Coordination to Lewis Acids: A Structural, Spectroscopic, and Computational Study

A lithiated m-terphenyl ligand bearing fluorine atoms at the ortho positions of the flanking aryl rings was synthesized and characterized using single crystal X-ray diffraction, variable-temperature multinuclear NMR spectroscopy, and computational methods. Here, changes in 1 J C,F on coordination to lithium as a spectroscopic observable parametrizing the strength of the C–F···Li interaction are described, and a general, qualitative relationship between C–F bond lengths, Δ 1 J C,F values, and the extent of C–F bond activation as a result of Lewis acid coordination is proposed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗