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UQTk Version 3.1.2 User Manual

The UQ Toolkit (UQTk) is a collection of libraries and tools for the quantification of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. Version 3.1.2 offers intrusive and non-intrusive methods for propagating input uncertainties through computational models, tools for sensitivity analysis, methods for sparse surrogate construction, and Bayesian inference tools for inferring parameters from experimental data. This manual discusses the download and installation process for UQTk, provides pointers to the UQ methods used in the toolkit, and describes some of the examples provided with the toolkit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hierarchical Conceptual Model Event and Activity Domains for Forecasting State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power Activities

In FY20, the Savannah River National Laboratory and the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (Virginia Tech) entered a collaboration funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development to develop a machine learning based modeling pipeline to extract proliferation events of interest from open data sources. The prototype modeling pipeline that was developed relies on the use of time dependent word embedding models to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases that act as indicators of events of interest. The FY20- 21 efforts were focused on a narrow topical domain of forecasting “fissile core fabrication” at the Savannah River Site prior to its official announcement in 2018. In FY22, the research team was funded to continue development of the modeling pipeline by applying it to the problem of forecasting new, and/or significant changes to existing, civil nuclear power reactors around the world. In this effort, the development will focus on proving applicability to a broader topical domain and in data environments that may contain more sparse information, relative to the United States. In this report, the worldwide landscape of civil nuclear reactors is outlined, the timeline of interest is defined, and a hierarchical conceptual model is established to identify the activity domains of interest and the event domains of interest. This preliminary effort will guide the curation of a glossary of key terms for data acquisition, as well as the downstream modeling efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Learning an Algebriac Multrigrid Interpolation Operator Using a Modified GraphNet Architecture

This work, building on previous efforts, develops a suite of new graph neural network machine learning architectures that generate data-driven prolongators for use in Algebraic Multigrid (AMG). Algebraic Multigrid is a powerful and common technique for solving large, sparse linear systems. Its effectiveness is problem dependent and heavily depends on the choice of the prolongation operator, which interpolates the coarse mesh results onto a finer mesh. Previous work has used recent developments in graph neural networks to learn a prolongation operator from a given coefficient matrix. In this paper, we expand on previous work by exploring architectural enhancements of graph neural networks. A new method for generating a training set is developed which more closely aligns to the test set. Asymptotic error reduction factors are compared on a test suite of 3-dimensional Poisson problems with varying degrees of element stretching. Results show modest improvements in asymptotic error factor over both commonly chosen baselines and learning methods from previous work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design of functional materials based on new principles of disorder. Final Report

Disorder is present to some extent in every material. The disorder can be sparse and localized – individual defects – or globally such as in a glass. Normally disorder is considered to be detrimental to function. However, this is not necessarily always the case. This project addressed the question: How does disorder provide new potentialities for the behavior of a material that would be absent in a crystalline material of the same composition? We have discovered a new principle for disordered matter: Independence of bond-level response. This work has introduced the possibility of creating new classes of mechanical meta-materials with applications everywhere from microscopic biological molecules (allostery) to large scale architectural disordered networks. During the course of this grant, we have subsequently elaborated on these novel ideas about bond-level independence of properties in disordered materials. In particular, this study has required that we understand the limits of disorder. That is, if crystals are perfect order, is there another diametrically opposed pole which is the most disordered state? We have shown that, in a well-defined way, jamming is one extreme disordered pole of rigid matter. Jamming is a far-from-equilibrium way of creating a rigid solid by rapidly quenching a random distribution of particles to a mechanically stable system at zero temperature. To understand the jammed state of matter, we have elucidated the low-frequency excitation of these systems. This has allowed a new way of understanding materials that cannot be easily classified as crystals or glasses. These ideas can be extended to address the mechanical properties of polycrystalline matter. Memory formation in matter can take inspiration from memory that occurs in a biological context. The issue of memory formation raises another set of questions at the heart of how the energy landscape is organized and how it can be manipulated to store information in a solid. This project has explored how to understand the degree to which multiple memories can be stored in a single system and has created a holistic understanding of how inputs can be used to create a desired response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scalable Techniques for Stochastic Power Flow Problems (Final Report)

The proposed research focuses on developing scalable algorithms for two-stage security-constrained OPF problems with AC power flow constraints, a class of problems complicated by (i) scale arising from a scenario representation; and (ii) the presence of nonlinearity, nonconvexity, and possibly second-stage discreteness or complementarity. Unfortunately, most existing solvers cannot contend with both challenges simultaneously; accordingly, the proposed research focuses on developing solution techniques that can both scale with the number of scenarios and contend with nonconvexity and second-stage complementarity. We consider three avenues for addressing such problems: (i) Variable sample-size SQP (VS-SQP) methods that combine sparse Quasi-Newton updates with a scalable variance-reduced stochastic gradient scheme for stochastic QP subproblems, allowing for contending with second-stage complementarity via regularization; (ii) Variable sample-size stochastic Interior-point (VS-sIP) schemes that propose a sampling-based regularized (to allow for contending with complementarity) interior-point schemes in which a Schur-complement technique is employed for decomposing the Newton direction computation step; (iii) Variable sample-size tractable ADMM (VS-tADMM) schemes combine variable sample-sizes with carefully designed techniques for resolving each of the nonconvex updates (by leveraging the QCQP structures). We intend to compare the three schemes using performance profiles in terms of solution quality, scalability, etc. and then select one scheme which will then be developed and further refined in Python for purposes of the GO competition.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a new transparent conductive oxide for photovoltaics applications

This small innovation project intended to leverage recent activity and advances in ultrawide-bandgap oxide power electronics toward the investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a transparent conductive oxide (TCO) for use in photovoltaics (PV). Ga 2 O 3 ’s theoretical advantage over incumbent TCOs is its very large bandgap of 4.8 eV, ensuring optical transparency of photons with λ ≥ 260 nm, effectively the full terrestrial solar spectrum. At the time of proposal writing, literature on Ga 2 O 3 as a TCO/optical material was relatively sparse — what little existed was focused on for UV sensors and/or emitters, with none related to PV. As such, this project was intended to help determine the potential of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO by investigating its deposition using tools common to the PV and electronics industries — atomic layer deposition (ALD) and RF sputtering (RS), both of which are already used in PV manufacturing — and its resultant optical and electronic properties. Final project goals were to test its application to Si and III-V solar cells. Controllable film thickness and excellent uniformity was established for both methods deposition methods, with ALD providing higher precision for thinner films and RS more effective for growing thicker films. The as-deposited films were found to be amorphous in nature. Spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) confirmed bandgaps of at least 4.8 eV and non-parasitic absorption across both AM0 and AM1.5G spectra; a refractive index approaching the expected value of 1.8 was also observed, with some degree of tunability based on process parameters. Using this initial optical data, a transfer matrix model, which interfaces with in-house EQE and LIV models, was developed to simulate Ga 2 O 3 optical effects on various solar cells, included potential in antireflection coatings (ARCs). Despite promising optical properties, the resultant resistivity / conductivity metrics did not meet expectations, regardless of deposition process. Although thick RS-deposited films, using both undoped and 1 at% Ge (n-type) doped sintered targets — demonstrated high net carrier concentrations (via C-V), and low specific resistance Ohmic contacts were demonstrated, transmission line measurements (TLM) showed very high resistivity. Further analysis indicated high vertical film conductivity, but very low lateral conductivity. Deeper characterization revealed a relatively high density of nano/microcrystalline inclusions that were ostensibly the source of the vertical conductivity, with the amorphous matrix serving as an effective insulator (likely due to high concentrations of electronic trap states). Despite extensive work to increase film polycrystallinity — demonstrated via high temperature annealing — sufficient lateral conductivity for TCO use was not achieved. The final phase of the project shifted focus toward investigation of ALD-deposited Ga 2 O 3 ’s potential as a passivant and/or passivating contact for both Si and III-V solar cells, with expectation of performance similar to Al 2 O 3 . However, initial rounds of testing using our baseline ALD process yielded minimal (but not quite zero) passivation of both GaInP and Si surfaces. Dielectric passivation is well-known to be highly process sensitive; given the unoptimized nature of the process used, this work was deemed inconclusive. The final outlook with respect to feasibility of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO is, ultimately, still uncertain. The work performed in this project confirmed the optical properties and deposition methods, but the achieved electrical properties do not meet technological needs; literature reports in recent years are somewhat inconsistent and potentially untrustworthy, but generally appear to be in line with our results. At the very least it is clear that, should Ga 2 O 3 still be under consideration for PV TCO and/or selective contact applications, a significant amount of optimization and study is still needed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Report on PTT Imaging of Defects in AM Metallic Materials-Part 2

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Evaluated, Transient Experiment based on Simultaneous, 3-D Neutron-Flux and Temperature Measurements

There is substantial interest in the validation of transient models for reactor physics, particularly in support of next-generation, high-fidelity tools like those developed by the U.S. DOE and other institutions. However, much existing data is limited largely to sparse or integral measurements in very large, complicated reactor systems. Moreover, meaningful transients are almost always driven by the complex coupling between neutronics and thermal-hydraulics. To address this data gap, a series of steady-state and transient experiments was conducted at the University of Wisconsin Nuclear Reactor that used several probes containing micro-pocket fission detectors (MPFDs) to measure neutron fluxes or resistance temperature detectors (RTDs) to measure coolant temperatures. Here, an overview of the experimental campaign is provided, as is a preliminary look of selected measurements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Deterministic and Monte Carlo Nuclear Data Adjustment Methods [Slides]

For the Bayesian Monte Carlo methodology, a need to understand convergence of the posterior moments as a function of the number of parameter realizations is required. In high-dimensional systems, it can be very costly to sample entire parameter space and perform functional evaluation for every realization. Bayesian Monte Carlo allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and prior/posterior PDF shape. The Bayesian Stochastic Collocation Method is a deterministic approach to “sample” the parameter space. It allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and posterior PDF shape. Higher-order posterior moments (i.e., skewness, kurtosis, etc.) can be studied through polynomial expansion. Tensor product quadrature scales poorly and can use sparse grid quadrature methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integral Experiment Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) Plutonium Additional Mixed Spectrum Configurations

This report presents the final design (CED-2) for three additional mixed-spectra configurations for plutonium Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) to target the intermediate energy region (IER-553). The baseline cases of IER-184 (PU-MET-MIXED-002 [2]) spanned the entire fission energy spectrum. Case 3, which had a median fission energy (MFE) of approximately 6E-5 MeV and had a fission fraction of about 42% in the intermediate energy range, resulted in a $k_{eff}$ overestimation of 1.1%. Compared to 749 previous ICSBEP plutonium benchmarks, the baseline cases accurately predicted the experiments in the thermal and fast regions where the majority of benchmarks inhabit. The benchmarks in the intermediate energy region to date are sparse and overestimate $k_{eff}$ with an average C/E between 1.02 and 1.03. The additional proposed configurations span the whole of the intermediate energy region. The experimental design utilizes the plutonium/aluminum metal alloy Zero Power Physics Reactor (ZPPR) Plutonium-Aluminum No-Nickel (PANN) plates with varying polyethylene moderator thicknesses to span the intermediate fission energy region. Each of the cases have varying fractions of thermal, intermediate, and fast fissions. The designs were chosen to maximize the intermediate energy fraction. The experiment will take place on the universal critical assembly machine, Planet. The layers will be split as equally as possible between the lower platen and the upper stationary platform of Planet. The upper half of the experimental configuration will also have an upper reflector of polyethylene of specified thicknesses to achieve criticality when the lower platen is raised fully. The previous IER-184 configurations, specifically Case 3, were used to determine the configurations for the additional experiments and neutronics calculations were used to fine-tune the configurations to ensure criticality. The quadrature sum uncertainty in Δ$k_{eff}$ for Case 3 in PU-MET-MIXED-002 was found to be 0.00219. Section 3.8 gives a detailed description of the uncertainties calculated. The additional configurations, which are based directly on Case 3, are expected to have similar uncertainties. However, it is possible to reduce the overall uncertainty of Δ$k_{eff}$ for the additional configurations using the knowledge obtained from the calculations in the benchmark.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fort Erie On-Demand Transit Case Study

Rural and smaller-sized communities in North America face unique mobility challenges due to their low population density, lower public transit spending per capita compared to major cities, and a high reliance on private vehicles. In recent years, communities such as Fort Erie, Ontario have restructured or advanced their public transit systems using on-demand services. Fort Erie is a relatively sparsely populated region of 32,901 residents, spread across a land area of 166 square kilometers (64 square miles), for an average population density of 193 residents per square kilometer (500 per square mile). In October 2021, the town implemented a mobility-on-demand system integrated with smartphone software to replace its fixed-route community bus system, which consisted of four buses with three routes, each with a roughly one-hour, one way loop. The new service utilizes a fleet of six minivans, two of which are retrofitted with wheelchair-accessible ramps. The system may require that a passenger requesting a standard van walk up to 400 meters (a quarter mile) to their pickup location to optimize vehicle routing while providing origin-to-destination service. The on-demand system proved effective in providing service, eclipsing pre-pandemic ridership by 40%, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions per ride by 63%, and decreasing the cost per ride to the town by 29%. This report documents both the previous system and the new system in terms of routes, ridership, costs, fuel, and other notable system parameters. This work is part of an ongoing series of case studies on providing small communities with on-demand, right-sized vehicle service coupled with a smartphone application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting Seafloor Seismic Noise from Sea Surface Wave Heights and Vice Versa

Seismic hazard monitoring and global seismic tomography efforts are improved by recording seismic signals close to sources and at a variety of azimuths surrounding the source. While seismic networks have been deployed at many locations on land, seafloor stations are still sparse. Inclusion of ocean-based data would greatly improve the global coverage of seismic networks. However, the use of seafloor seismic data to complement land-based detection and characterization of events is complicated by the fact that ambient noise on the seafloor is in general much higher than noise levels on land. This noise is driven primarily by sea surface waves and tides. In this project, I define an empirical relationship between wave height and seafloor seismic displacement, and tie this relationship to the microseism noise theory of Longuet-Higgins and Ursell (1948). I find that while there appears to be a linear relationship between wave height and seismic displacement, wave height values can only be used with low confidence to predict seismic displacement and vice versa, and furthermore, factors other than wave height are significant in determining the level of seismic noise at a particular site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advanced Material Studies for High Intensity Proton Production Targets and Windows

The titanium alloy Ti6Al4V is widely used in accelerator facilities as beam windows, which are exposed to high cycle compressive stress waves from intense pulsed proton beams. Such materials interacting with the beam are subject to various forms of radiation damage, which can adversely affect their endurance limit. However, no fatigue data is currently available for high energy proton irradiated titanium alloy. Due to limitations in proton irradiation facilities, only miniature flat samples can be used for irradiation. To address this issue, we have developed a custom-made bend fatigue tester at Fermilab specifically for testing proton irradiated titanium alloy. In this presentation, we report on the fatigue test results obtained from this custom-fatigue tester using a non-ASTM standard specimen design. We plan to validate these sparse fatigue data with ASTM standard samples using standard fatigue samples. Furthermore, we have modified another commercial bend fatigue tester to accommodate miniature samples, and discuss some inherent deficiencies of the commercial fatigue tester to test miniature samples. To overcome this issue, a new fixture design is presented, which enables satisfactory fatigue testing on miniature samples over long periods. Finally, we present an upgrade to the custom-fatigue tester, featuring this new fixture design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗