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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

Cocoon shock breakout emission from binary neutron star mergers

Shock breakout emission is among the first observable signals in a wide variety of astrophysical phenomena, including neutron star (NS) mergers, and it can be the dominant component in low-luminosity short γ-ray bursts, as exemplified by GRB 170817A. In this work, we investigate the cocoon shock breakout emission in NS mergers and how its signal depends on the outermost layers of the ejecta profile, which we derive from general relativistic radiation hydrodynamic simulations. We study the formation of the cocoon as a consequence of a relativistic jet propagating through the ejecta. To explore the influence of the outermost layers of the ejecta on the breakout emission, we explore cases where the ejecta has a sharp cutoff or an extended smooth tail. We find that the shock breakout emission is strongly influenced by the shape of the ejecta outer layers, with extended tails yielding results consistent with the observed properties of GRB 170817A, whereas sharp cutoffs overestimate the radiated energy. Using a Bayesian analysis, we estimate the best fit parameters of the central engine, considering both accreting black hole and magnetized neutron star scenarios. Our findings indicate a slight preference for the scenarios where the engine is a black hole. Furthermore, our work probes the nature of neutron star mergers and highlights the importance of the shape of the ejecta profile in modeling early electromagnetic counterparts to these mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERF aer ) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERF aer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERF aer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERF aer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERF aer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERF aer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERF aer , it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM version 1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERFaer simulated by the E3SM version 1 (E3SMv1) atmospheric model using both century-long free-running atmosphere–land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERFaer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and we evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between pre-industrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period of 1870–1969. In addition to the regional differences in the simulated relationships, a reduced sensitivity in cloud droplet number and other cloud properties to aerosol perturbations is seen when the aerosol perturbation is large. Consequently, the global annual mean ERFaer magnitude does not increase after around 1970. The ERFaer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol–cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features large relative changes in the cloud droplet effective radius in response to aerosol perturbations. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds (that causes a large effect on longwave ERFaer). As suggested by a previous study, the large ERFaer appears to be one of the reasons why the model cannot reproduce the observed global mean temperature evolution in the second half of the 20th century. Sensitivity simulations are performed to understand which parameterization and/or parameter changes have a large impact on the simulated ERFaer. The ERFaer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-model forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERFaer, it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity

Widespread aridification of the land surface causes substantial environmental challenges and is generally well documented. However, the mechanisms underlying increased aridity remain relatively underexplored. Here, we investigated the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting long-term global aridity changes using multisource observation-based aridity index, factorial simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and rigorous detection and attribution (D&A) methods. Our study found that anthropogenic forcings, mainly rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and aerosols, caused the increased aridification of the globe and each hemisphere with high statistical confidence for 1965–2014; the GHGE contributed to drying trends, whereas the aerosol emissions led to wetting tendencies; moreover, the bias-corrected CMIP6 future aridity index based on the scaling factors from optimal D&A demonstrated greater aridification than the original simulations. These findings highlight the dominant role of human effects on increasing aridification at broad spatial scales, implying future reductions in aridity will rely primarily on the GHGE mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnetospheric and exospheric imaging in the extreme ultraviolet

Extreme ultraviolet line emissions by exospheric oxygen ions and neutrals of ionospheric origin can be used to form images of the dynamic magnetospheric regions with sufficient speed to provide a new global means of observing the dynamics of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling processes. Computer simulations of such exospheric images based on the latest measurements of ion outflow, on known or estimated solar fluxes, and on known emission and excitation rates are shown. An evaluation of the current and foreseeable EUV imaging technology relevant to magnetospheric imaging is also given.

Chiu, Y. T.↗

Trigger, an active release experiment that stimulated auroral particle precipitation and wave emissions

The experiment design, including a description of the diagnostic and chemical release payload, and the general results are given for an auroral process simulation experiment. A drastic increase of the field aligned charged particle flux was observed over the approximate energy range 10 eV to more than 300 keV, starting about 150 ms after the release and lasting about one second. The is evidence of a second particle burst, starting one second after the release and lasting for tens of seconds, and evidence for a periodic train of particle bursts occurring with a 7.7 second period from 40 to 130 seconds after the release. A transient electric field pulse of 200 mv/m appeared just before the particle flux increase started. Electrostatic wave emissions around 2 kHz, as well as a delayed perturbation of the E-region below the plasma cloud were also observed. Some of the particle observations are interpreted in terms of field aligned electrostatic acceleration a few hundred kilometers above the injected plasma cloud. It is suggested that the acceleration electric field was created by an instability driven by field aligned currents originating in the plasma cloud.

Holmgren, G.↗

Dissertation Proposal: Innovations in Pulsed Power and Plasma Science Theory Simulation and Experiment

Pulsed power and plasma physics are topics of great study at both Sandia National Laboratories (SNL or Sandia) and the University of New Mexico (UNM). The goal of this research is to further knowledge and understanding of these fields using the resources of both SNL and UNM in three ways. The first way is through the comprehension, application, and testing of theory. Reading and analytically deriving theoretical solutions of problems both real-world and simplified will allow for a fresh perspective and the furthering of the theory. One such theory is Ottinger's generalized theory for voltage measurement in magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs). By working through the math, a deeper understanding of the theory is gained from which one may add more physically accurate and/or more detailed physics into the theory. Additionally, understanding the theory lays a good foundation from which one can analyze, test, and compare results to the theory in the following two ways that will advance the fields of pulsed power and plasma physics. The second way is through the modeling and simulation of real-world and simplified problems that utilize and test the afore mentioned theories. Theory can be applied to a simulation domain by using the unstructured time-domain electromagnetic (UTDEM) codes EMPHASIS and EMPIRE as well as the physical modeling software CUBIT, all of which were developed at SNL. Problems such as the modeling and design of the extended MITL on HERMES III, the understanding of space-charge-limited emission from vacuum cathodes, and the interaction between a relativistic electron beam and an ideal gas can all be modeled, simulated, and analyzed with this set of codes. Here the advantage is three-fold. Firstly, theory that describes our understanding of these problems can be put to the test and advanced through iterative simulation and analysis. Secondly, the understanding of these problems will have a positive impact on national security through the advancement of the technological capability of the United States of America. Thirdly, and not unrelated to the prior advantage, is the validation and verification of EMPIRE and EMPHASIS. This segues into the third way, which is through experiment and the comparison of experiment to simulated and theoretical results. Performing experimental comparisons completes the scientific method and grounds all of the work in reality. Being able to physically test theory and simulation is necessary for any real conclusions to be drawn. Another advantage for carrying out experimental work is to advance the physical testing capabilities of SNL. Several systems will be developed and tested through the course of this work that positively impact technological advancement of Sandia National Labs. Lastly, all of the above work will converge to yield a well-rounded perspective that ties the three categories of research together.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Looking at A 0535+26 at Low Luminosities with NuSTAR

We report on two NuSTAR observations of the high-mass X-ray binary A 0535+26 taken toward the end of its normal 2015 outburst at very low 3-50 keV luminosities of approximately 1.4 times x 10 (sup 36) ergs per second and approximately 5 times x 10 (sup 35) ergs per second, which are complemented by nine Swift observations. The data clearly confirm indications seen in earlier data that the source's spectral shape softens as it becomes fainter. The smooth exponential rollover at high energies seen in the first observation evolves to a much more abrupt steepening of the spectrum at 20-30 keV. The continuum evolution can be nicely described with emission from a magnetized accretion column, modeled using the compmag model modified by an additional Gaussian emission component for the fainter observation. Between the two observations, the optical depth changes from 0.75 plus or minus 0.04 to 0.56 plus 0.01 (sup) minus 0.04 (sub), the electron temperature remains constant, and there is an indication that the column decreases in radius. Since the energy-resolved pulse profiles remain virtually unchanged in shape between the two observations, the emission properties of the accretion column reflect the same accretion regime. This conclusion is also confirmed by our result that the energy of the cyclotron resonant scattering feature (CRSF) at approximately 45 keV is independent of the luminosity, implying that the magnetic field in the region in which the observed radiation is produced is the same in both observations. Finally, we also constrain the evolution of the continuum parameters with the rotational phase of the neutron star. The width of the CRSF could only be constrained for the brighter observation. Based on Monte Carlo simulations of CRSF formation in single accretion columns, its pulse phase dependence supports a simplified fan beam emission pattern. The evolution of the CRSF width is very similar to that of the CRSF depth, which is, however, in disagreement with expectations.

Ballhausen, Ralf↗

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. The importance of carbon (C)–nutrient interactions to the prediction of future C uptake has long been recognized. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 1 is one of the few land surface models that include both N and P cycling and limitation (ELMv1-CNP). Here we provide a global-scale evaluation of ELMv1-CNP using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. Compared to simulations with optimal P availability, simulations with ELMv1-CNP produce better performance, particularly for simulated biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and global net C balance. We also show ELMv1-CNP-simulated N and P cycling is in good agreement with data-driven estimates. We compared the ELMv1-CNP-simulated response to CO2 enrichment with meta-analysis of observations from similar manipulation experiments. We show that ELMv1-CNP is able to capture the field-observed responses for photosynthesis, growth, and LAI. We investigated the role of P limitation in the historical balance and show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation, as the historical CO2 fertilization effect was reduced by 20 % and C emission due to land use and land cover change was 11 % lower when P limitation was considered. Our simulations suggest that the introduction of P cycle dynamics and C–N–P coupling will likely have substantial consequences for projections of future C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure and Dynamics of the Quiet Solar Chromosphere

The grant supported research on the structure of the quiet, nonmagnetic chromosphere and on wave excitation and propagation in both the nonmagnetic chromosphere and the magnetic network. The work on the structure of the chromosphere culminated in the recognition that between two competing views of the solar chromosphere, older models by Avrett and collaborators (referred to as VAL) and the newer, dynamical model by Carlsson & Stein (referred to as CS), the clear decision is in favor of the older models, and this in spite of the evident lack of physics, which does not include wave motion and oscillations. The contrast between the static VAL models and the dynamical CS model can be stated most succinctly by comparing the temperature variation implied by the VAL models and the temperature fluctuations of the CS model, which are, respectively, of the order of 10% for the VAL model (at heights where hydrogen is 50% ionized) and a factor of 10 (at the upper boundary of their chromospheric model). The huge fluctuations of the CS model have never been observed, whereas the smaller temperature variations of the VAL models are consistent with ground-based and space-based observations. While it should be obvious which model describes the Sun and which one fails, the case is far from settled in the minds of solar physicists. Thus, much educational work remains to be done and, of course, more research to develop arguments that make the case more convincing. The research on waves and oscillations has been based on a unified theory of excitation of acoustic waves in the field-free atmosphere and of transverse and longitudinal waves in magnetic flux tubes located in the magnetic network by noting, first, that impulsive excitation of all these waves in gravitationally stratified media leads to oscillations at the respective cutoff frequencies and, second, that the observed oscillation frequencies in the nonmagnetic and magnetic parts of the chromosphere match corresponding cutoff frequencies in the upper solar photosphere. The dynamical simulations by Carlsson and Stein have been most instructive and of fundamental importance for understanding wave propagation in a stratified medium by their "flaws", the most important of which is an intensity excess at the H2v emission peak in the H line of Ca II, which is surprising since the observed intensity should have been an upper limit to the simulated intensity. The only plausible explanation for a predicted intensity that is higher than observed is that energy is spread horizontally in upward propagation in the Sun, but not in the plane-wave modeling of CS (as well as by almost everyone else). Investigations of the horizontal size of the region disturbed by the upward-propagating shock in the acoustic-wave propagation implies that the waves in H2v bright-point oscillations emanate from a point source with a diameter corresponding to the width of an intergranular lane, about 100 km, and reach a size of about 4000 km in the upper layers of the chromosphere. Linear, analytic modeling of waves emanating from a point source in a stratified atmosphere shows that the upward-expanding propagation channel does not have sharp boundaries and that the shape of the wave front depends on the order of the wave behind the initial pulse. Otherwise, the behavior of the linear waves resembles that of the nonlinear shock waves observed in the Sun. Research that needs to be done to firm up the conclusions reached above concerns the numerical simulations of nonlinear waves and oscillations in a three-dimensional stratified atmosphere with impulsive excitation, and observations linking directly the horizontal size of the disturbed area in upward propagation to individual waves.

Kalkofen, Wolfgang↗

Evaluating Model Parameterizations of Submicron Aerosol Scattering and Absorption with in situ Data from ARCTAS 2008

Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9- 02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10-23 percent, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GCRT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

Alvarado, Matthew J.↗

Multipoint Observations of Quasiperiodic Emission Intensification and Effects on Energetic Electron Precipitation

The two Van Allen Probes simultaneously recorded a coherently modulated quasiperiodic (QP) emission that persisted for 3 h. The magnetic field pulsation at the locations of the two satellites showed a substantial difference, and their frequencies were close to but did not exactly match the repetition frequency of QP emissions for most of the time, suggesting that those coherent QP emissions probably originated from a common source, which then propagated over a broad area in the magnetosphere. The QP emissions were amplified by local anisotropic electron distributions, and their large-scale amplitudes were modulated by the plasma density. A novel observation of this event is that chorus waves at frequencies above QP emissions exhibit a strong correlation with QP emissions. Those chorus waves intensified when the QP emissions reach their peak frequency. This indicates that embryonic QP emissions may be critical for its own intensification as well as chorus waves under certain circumstances. A Low-Earth-Orbit POES satellite observed enhanced energetic electron precipitation in conjunction with the Van Allen Probes, providing direct evidence that QP emissions precipitate energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Finally, this scenario is quantitatively confirmed by our quasilinear diffusion simulation results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-dimensional hot-spot x-ray emission tomography from cryogenic deuterium–tritium direct-drive implosions on OMEGA

A three-dimensional model of the hot-spot x-ray emission has been developed and applied to the study of low-mode drive asymmetries in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA with cryogenic deuterium–tritium targets. Here, the steady-state model assumes an optically thin plasma and the data from four x-ray diagnostics along quasi-orthogonal lines of sight are used to obtain a tomographic reconstruction of the hot spot. A quantitative analysis of the hot-spot shape is achieved by projecting the x-ray emission into the diagnostic planes and comparing this projection to the measurements. The model was validated with radiation-hydrodynamic simulations assuming a mode-2 laser illumination perturbation resulting in an elliptically shaped hot spot, which was accurately reconstructed by the model using synthetic x-ray images. This technique was applied to experimental data from implosions in polar-direct-drive illumination geometry with a deliberate laser-drive asymmetry, and the hot-spot emission was reconstructed using spherical-harmonic modes of up to ℓ = 3. A 10% stronger drive on the equator relative to that on the poles resulted in a prolate-shaped hot spot at stagnation with a large negative A 2,0 coefficient of A 2,0 = –0.47 ± 0.03, directly connecting the modal contribution of the hot-spot shape with the modal contribution in laser-drive asymmetry.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Variability in the high energy gamma ray emission from Cyg X-3 over a two-year period (1983 - 1984) at E 4 x 10(11) eV

Cygnus X-3 is observed to emit gamma rays with energies in excess of 4 x 10 to the 11th power eV during two out of 9 observational categories over an 18 month time span. The emissions are observed at the 0.6 phase of the characteristic 4.8 hr light curve for this binary system. We estimate a peak flux at phase 0.6 of 5 x 10 to the minus 10th power photons cm-2s-1 at a software threshold of 8 x 10 to the 11th power eV for Oct/Nov 1983. A flux for the June 84 effect cannot be reliably calculated at present due to lack of Monte Carlo simulations for the energy range and spectral region. For the other 7 observational categories the observations are consistent with zero source emission. The light curve would appear to be variable on a time scale of a couple of weeks at these categories. Selection of compact images in accordance with Monte Carlo simulations combined with empirical optimization techniques have led to an enriched gamma ray light curve for the Oct/Nov 1983 data. Selection on the basis of shower orientation, however, has not led to any notable enhancement of the gamma ray content. Individual Cherenko images can be reliably sorted on an event by event basis into either proton-induced or photon-induced showers.

Cawley, M. F.↗

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO $x$ , CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1º × 0.1º and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018. The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of Process Emissions during Thermal Cutting of Clad Metals from the Nuclear Sector - 20183

Typically, reactor pressure vessels as well as steam generators comprising low alloyed steel with a cladding of stainless steel. Recently the permissible values for Cr (VI) in the air of the working areas have been reduced in Germany from 100 μg/m{sup 3} to 1 μg/m{sup 3} air. This results in the danger that even with low-alloy steel with claddings these limit values would be exceeded when using flame cutting technologies. In order to ensure compliance with the permissible limit values, exhaust gas systems with gas cleaning measures are provided. The process emission test shall replace the assumptions required for the design of these systems with measured values. NUKEM Technologies Engineering Services GmbH (NUKEM) has chosen autogenous flame cutting as an example of a thermal cutting system for process emission testing, as there are no proven values in the literature for the Cr (VI) and NiOx emissions produced. The autogenous flame cutting can be used for a variety of cutting tasks within decommissioning projects. In order to simulate the material to be cut, mock ups were generated and cut from information about the material specification for the reactor pressure vessel from existing nuclear power plants including possible claddings. The cutting length needed for analysis in the test will be maximum 100 mm. The airborne emissions from the thermal cutting process will be captured and analyzed as follows: - Dust emission: The generated particles will be collected by a hood equipped with strong suction device and suitable filter elements. The resulting filter is gravimetrically measured before and after the tests. - Particle Size Distribution: The airborne particle size distribution measurement will result in figures for the size and number of particles arising from the thermal cutting process. - Gas Analysis: The gas analysis enables the determination of e.g. CO{sub 2}, CO, O{sub 3}, NO, NO{sub 2}. - Cr (VI) and NiOx Analysis: For the Cr (VI) and NiOx analysis, samples of the filter residue will be taken. As a result Cr (VI) in relation to total Cr as well as the Ni content will be determined by ICP-optically emission spectroscopy and put in relation to the total dust amount. The process emissions test itself as well as the necessary gas analyses and spectroscopic analyses were carried out at the Institute of Materials Science (IW) of Leibniz Universitaet Hannover (LUH). The results of the process emission tests are used to confirm the design of the gas cleaning systems. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗