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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

The impact of sampling scale: A comparison of methods for estimating external contaminant exposure in free-ranging wildlife

The impacts of contaminants on wildlife are dose dependent, and thus being able to track or predict exposure following contamination events is important for monitoring ecosystem health. However, the ability to track exposure in free-ranging wildlife is often severely limited. Consequently, researchers have predominantly relied on simple methods for estimating contaminant exposures in wildlife with little regard for spatial contaminant heterogeneity or an animal’s use of diverse habitats. We evaluated the influence sampling scale (i.e., how finely contaminant distribution and organism’s spatial use of the landscape is mapped) has on (1) realism and (2) conservativeness of exposure estimates. To do this, we monitored the actual exposure of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Fukushima, Japan to radioactive contamination using GPS27 coupled contaminant monitors placed on individual animals. We compared empirical exposures to estimates generated by combining varying amounts of information about an individual boar’s location and/or movement, with the distribution of contamination on the landscape. Here we found that the most realistic exposure estimates were produced when finer-scale contaminant distribution surveys (e.g., airborne surveys) were combined with more accurate estimates of an individual’s space use (e.g., home ranges or core areas). Importantly, estimates of exposure based on single point surveys at a trap site (a simple method commonly used in the literature), did not correlate with actual exposure rates, suggesting dose-effects studies using this method may result in spurious conclusions. These results suggest that researchers seeking realistic estimates of exposure, such as in dose-effect studies, should ensure they have adequately accounted for fine-scale contaminant distribution patterns and areas of higher use by study organisms. However, conservative estimates of exposure i.e., intentionally over-predicting exposure as is done in initial tiers of ecological risk analyses) were not as scale sensitive and could be achieved with a single known location and coarse contaminant distribution maps.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A review of spatial Markov models for predicting pre-asymptotic and anomalous transport in porous and fractured media

Heterogeneity across a broad range of scales in geologic porous media often manifests in observations of non-Fickian or anomalous transport. While traditional anomalous transport models can successfully make predictions in certain geological systems, increasing evidence suggests that assumptions relating to independent and identically distributed increments constrain where and when they can be reliably applied. A relatively novel model, the Spatial Markov model (SMM), relaxes the assumption of independence. The SMM belongs to the family of correlated continuous time random walks and has shown promise across a wide range of transport problems relevant to natural porous media. It has been successfully used to model conservative as well as more recently reactive transport in highly complex flows ranging from pore scales to much larger scales of interest in geology and subsurface hydrology. In this review paper we summarize its original development and provide a comprehensive review of its advances and applications as well as lay out a vision for its future development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rotor noise prediction technology: Theoretical approach

Helicopter rotors which are the most complicated noise generators among rotating blade machinery are discussed. The main or the tail rotor can be the dominant source of noise depending on the range of frequencies and the observer position. Significant advances in noise prediction were made. Acoustic analysis is the most successful and general theoretical method to treat the acoustics of helicopter noise. The aerodynamic approach is used to study nonlinear acoustic effects. The results of acoustic analogy depend greatly on the input data.

Farassat, F.↗

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Algorithm Development for Predicting Biodiversity Based on Phytoplankton Absorption

Ocean color remote sensing has provided the scientific community with unprecedented global coverage of chlorophyll a, an indicator of phytoplankton biomass. Together, satellite-derived chlorophyll a and knowledge of Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs) will improve our limited understanding of marine ecosystem responses to physiochemical climate drivers involved in carbon cycle dynamics and linkages. Using cruise data from the Gulf of Maine and the Middle Atlantic Bight (N 269 pairs of HPLC and phytoplankton absorption samples), two modeling approaches were utilized to predict phytoplankton absorption and pigments. Algorithm I predicts the chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficient (a*(sub ph) (m(exp 2) mg chl a(exp - 1)) using inputs of temperature, light, and chlorophyll a. Modeled r(exp 2) values (400700 nm) ranged from 0.79 to 0.99 when compared to in situ observations with approximately 25 percent lower r(exp 2) values in the UV region. Algorithm II-a utilizes matrix inversion analysis to predict a(sub ph)(m(exp -1), 400700 nm) and r(exp 2) values ranged from 0.89 to 0.99. The prediction of phytoplankton pigments with Algorithm II-b produced r(exp 2) values that ranged from 0.40 to 0.93. When used in combination, Algorithm I, and Algorithm II-a are able to use satellite products of SST, PAR, and chlorophyll a (Algorithm I) to predict pigment concentrations and ratios to describe the phytoplankton community. The results of this study demonstrate that the spatial variation in modeled pigment ratios differ significantly from the 10-year SeaWiFS average chlorophyll a data set. Contiguous observations of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biodiversity will elucidate ecosystem responses with unprecedented complexity.

phytoplankton↗

Determination of Static Strength and Creep Buckling of Unstiffened Circular Cylinders Subjected to Bending at Elevated Temperatures

A method based on a semiempirical procedure is presented for predicting static strength and creep buckling of unstiffened circular cylinders subjected to pure bending at elevated temperatures. The method is applicable to cylinders that are loaded into the inelastic stress range prior to buckling and fail in a local mode. The predicted bending moments associated with static strength and creep buckling are compared with experimental data (taken from NACA RM 57El7) obtained from tests at 500 F on 5052-0 aluminum-alloy cylinders with radius- thickness ratios ranging from 125 to 250.

Mathauser, Eldon E.↗

Experimental transition probabilities and Stark-broadening parameters of neutral and single ionized tin

Strengths and Stark-effect widths of the Sn I and Sn II lines prominent between 3200 and 7900 A are measured with a spectroscopic shock tube. Absolute strengths of 17 ionic lines are obtained with estimated (22-50)% accuracy and conform to appropriate quantum-mechanical sum rules. Relative transition probabilities for nine prominent neutral tin lines, normalized to radiative-lifetime data, are compared with other experiments and theoretical predictions. Parameters for Stark-effect broadening are measured over a range of plasma electron densities. Broadening data (with accuracies of 15-35%) for one neutral and ten ionic lines of tin are compared to theoretical predictions.

Miller, M. H.↗

Axial flow measurements in trailing vortices

A scanning laser Doppler velocimeter was used to measure the axial velocity defect in the cores of trailing vortices behind a lifting airfoil of rectangular planform. Data were obtained at several different angles of attack and downstream distances ranging from 30 to 1000 chord lengths. The test was designed to obtain continuous data from the near field into the far field while removing uncertainties associated with the interpretation of data obtained by the hydrogen bubble technique. The measured velocities of V sub x/U sub infinity are compared with those predicted. The agreement is remarkably good over the entire range of downstream distances, which supports the credibility of calculating axial velocities using the results of Moore and Saffman (1973).

Ciffone, D. L.↗

Statistical performance of the intensified charged coupled device

The first analysis of the statistical performance of the intensified charge coupled device (CCD) is presented. The Poisson statistics of the arriving photons, the exponential pulse height distribution of the microchannel plate in the image intensifier, and the effects of discrete digitization of the charge in reading the CCD are included. A range of intensifier gains from the high levels that permit pulse counting to the low levels that can be used with the accumulation of charge on the CCD is considered. As a tool for this analysis, an analytical model of the performance of the detector system that is generally useful for predicting many aspects of system performance under a wide range of conditions is developed. The statistical penalty for operating the intensified CCD in the charge accumulation mode is not severe, and in some applications it may be desirable to accept this penalty to gain the advantages of increased dynamic range through charge accumulation. This investigation has revealed no pathological aspects of the operation of the detector system.

Sandel, B. R.↗

Toward DMC Accuracy Across Chemical Space with Scalable Δ-QML

In the past decade, quantum diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) has been demonstrated to successfully predict the energetics and properties of a wide range of molecules and solids by numerically solving the electronic many-body Schrödinger equation. With O(N 3 ) scaling with the number of electrons N, DMC has the potential to be a reference method for larger systems that are not accessible to more traditional methods such as CCSD(T). Assessing the accuracy of DMC for smaller molecules becomes the stepping stone in making the method a reference for larger systems. We show that when coupled with quantum machine learning (QML)-based surrogate methods, the computational burden can be alleviated such that quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) shows clear potential to undergird the formation of high-quality descriptions across chemical space. We discuss three crucial approximations necessary to accomplish this: the fixed-node approximation, universal and accurate references for chemical bond dissociation energies, and scalable minimal amons-set-based QML (AQML) models. Numerical evidence presented includes converged DMC results for over 1000 small organic molecules with up to five heavy atoms used as amons and 50 medium-sized organic molecules with nine heavy atoms to validate the AQML predictions. Finally, numerical evidence collected for Δ-AQML models suggests that already modestly sized QMC training data sets of amons suffice to predict total energies with near chemical accuracy throughout chemical space.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗

Initial Aerodynamic and Acoustic Study of an Active Twist Rotor Using a Loosely Coupled CFD/CSD Method

Preliminary aerodynamic and performance predictions for an active twist rotor for a HART-II type of configuration are performed using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, OVERFLOW2, and a computational structural dynamics (CSD) code, CAMRAD -II. These codes are loosely coupled to compute a consistent set of aerodynamics and elastic blade motions. Resultant aerodynamic and blade motion data are then used in the Ffowcs-Williams Hawkins solver, PSU-WOPWOP, to compute noise on an observer plane under the rotor. Active twist of the rotor blade is achieved in CAMRAD-II by application of a periodic torsional moment couple (of equal and opposite sign) at the blade root and tip at a specified frequency and amplitude. To provide confidence in these particular active twist predictions for which no measured data is available, the rotor system geometry and computational set up examined here are identical to that used in a previous successful Higher Harmonic Control (HHC) computational study. For a single frequency equal to three times the blade passage frequency (3P), active twist is applied across a range of control phase angles at two different amplitudes. Predicted results indicate that there are control phase angles where the maximum mid-frequency noise level and the 4P non -rotating hub vibrations can be reduced, potentially, both at the same time. However, these calculated reductions are predicted to come with a performance penalty in the form of a reduction in rotor lift-to-drag ratio due to an increase in rotor profile power.

Boyd, David D. Jr.↗

First-principles simulation of a shocked H-He mixture along the principal Hugoniot

Recent laser-shock experiments on an H–He mixture containing 11% helium (atomic fraction) have suggested the presence of an immiscibility region inside Jupiter. Reflectivity measurements were used as the primary diagnostic of H–He demixing, with discontinuities in the optical reflectivity proposed as a signature of phase separation under conditions relevant to Jupiter's interior. Here, we investigate shock-compressed H–He using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations with optical properties evaluated within the Kubo–Greenwood formalism. The equation of state and ionic configurations were obtained using the thermal Tr 2 SCANL meta-GGA exchange–correlation (XC) functional, while optical properties were computed using the recently developed RS-KDT0 range-separated thermal hybrid XC, which provides state-of-the-art accuracy for band-gap predictions in the warm dense matter regime. The calculated reflectivity shows overall good agreement with experimental measurements; however, no discontinuity is observed at elevated temperatures. Moreover, the reflectivity predictions for the mixed system are consistent with the experimental measurements in the temperature range where the mixture is inferred to be demixed. Furthermore, these results suggest that reflectivity alone may not provide a unique or sensitive diagnostic of H–He demixing at low helium concentrations under these conditions.

Density functional calculations↗

Predicted effect of dynamic load on pitting fatigue life for low-contact-ratio spur gears

How dynamic load affects the surface pitting fatigue life of external spur gears was predicted by using the NASA computer program TELSGE. Parametric studies were performed over a range of various gear parameters modeling low-contact-ratio involute spur gears. In general, gear life predictions based on dynamic loads differed significantly from those based on static loads, with the predictions being strongly influenced by the maximum dynamic load during contact. Gear mesh operating speed strongly affected predicted dynamic load and life. Meshes operating at a resonant speed or one-half the resonant speed had significantly shorter lives. Dynamic life factors for gear surface pitting fatigue were developed on the basis of the parametric studies. In general, meshes with higher contact ratios had higher dynamic life factors than meshes with lower contact ratios. A design chart was developed for hand calculations of dynamic life factors.

Lewicki, David G.↗

Ionospheric calibration for single frequency altimeter measurements

This study is a preliminary analysis of the effectiveness (in terms of altimeter calibration accuracy) of various ionosphere models and the Global Positioning System (GPS) to calibrate single frequency altimeter height measurements for ionospheric path delay. In particular, the research focused on ingesting GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) data into the physical Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM), which estimates the composition of the ionosphere using independent empirical and physical models and has the capability of adjusting to additional ionospheric measurements. Two types of GPS data were used to adjust the PRISM model: GPS receiver station data mapped from line-of-sight observations to the vertical at the point of interest and a grid map (generated at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory) of GPS derived TEC in a sun-fixed longitude frame. The adjusted PRISM TEC values, as well as predictions by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-90), a climatological (monthly mean) model of the ionosphere, were compared to TOPEX dual-frequency TEC measurements (considered as truth) for a number of TOPEX sub-satellite tracks. For a 13.6 GHz altimeter, a Total Electron Content (TEC) of 1 TECU 10(exp 16) electrons/sq m corresponds to approximately 0.218 centimeters of range delay. A maximum expected TEC (at solar maximum or during solar storms) of 10(exp 18) electrons/sq m will create 22 centimeters of range delay. Compared with the TOPEX data, the PRISM predictions were generally accurate within the TECU when the sub-satellite track of interest passed within 300 to 400 km of the GPS TEC data or when the track passed through a night-time ionosphere. If neither was the case, in particular if the track passed through a local noon ionosphere, the PRISM values differed by more than 10 TECU and by as much as 40 TECU. The IRI-90 model, with no current ability to unseat GPS data, predicted TEC to a slightly higher error of 12 TECU. The performance of PRISM is very promising for predicting TEC and will prove useful for calibrating single frequency altimeter height measurements for ionospheric path delay. When adjusted to the GPS line-of-sight data the PRISM URSI empirical model predicted TEC over a day's period to within a global error of 8.60 TECU rms during a nighttime ionosphere and 9.74 TECU rms during the day. When adjusted to the GPS derived TEC grid, the PRISM parametrized model predicted TEC to within an error of 8.47 TECU rms for a nighttime ionosphere and 12.83 TECU rms during the day. However, the grid cannot be considered globally due to the lack of sufficient numbers of GPS stations and large latitude gaps in GPS data. It is the opinion of the authors that using the PRISM model and adjusting to the global sun-fixed TEC grid regenerated with a localized weighted interpolation offers the best possibility of meeting the 10 TECU global rms (or 2 cm at 13.6 GHz) ionosphere range correction accuracy requirement of TOPEX/Poseidon and should be the subject of further study. However, it is clear that the anticipated requirement of 34 TECU global rms for TOPEX/Poseidon Follow-On (corresponding to the TOPEX/Poseidon performance) can not be met with any realizable combination of existing models and data assimilation schemes.

Schreiner, William S.↗

Synthesis and structural characterization of the new Zintl phases Ba 3 Cd 2 P 4 and Ba 2 Cd 2 P 3 . Rare example of small gap semiconducting behavior with negative thermopower within the range 300 K-700 K

The new Zintl phases Ba 3 Cd 2 P 4 and Ba 2 Cd 2 P 3 have been synthesized using Pb flux, which allowed for the growth of 4-5 mm large crystals. The structures were determined utilizing single-crystal X-ray diffraction methods. Both compounds crystalize in the monoclinic crystal system (space group C2/m (No. 12)) and their structures are closely related. The structure of Ba 3 Cd 2 P 4 can be seen as being comprised of divalent Ba atoms and conjoined CdP 4 tetrahedra in the form of [Cd 2 P 4 ] 6- layers. Within the layers, homoatomic P–P bonds are present, which if cleaved, leave two infinite [CdP 3 ] 7- chains running along the crystallographic b-axis. The other structure, that of Ba 2 Cd 2 P 3 , can be rationalized as also having divalent Ba atoms and conjoined CdP4 tetrahedra in the form of [Cd 2 P 3 ] 6- layers. These layers, again, can be visualized as chains that run down the crystallographic b-axis, which are further connected by P-P dimers. Electronic band structure calculations show that each structure has an optimal number of valence electrons, and therefore conform to the Zintl-Klemm concept. Accordingly, the two compounds can be considered small band gap semiconductors, with band gaps of ca. 0.1 eV and 0.6 eV for Ba3Cd2P4 and Ba 2 Cd 2 P 3 , respectively. Electrical resistivity measurements show that Ba3Cd2P4 displays a large resistivity value at room temperature and an experimental band gap of ca. 0.05 eV, which fits reasonably well with the theoretical predictions. Thermopower measurements show that throughout the temperature range 300 K-700 K, Ba 3 Cd 2 P 4 displays a negative Seebeck coefficient. Here, the extremum value of -84 μV is reached at 630 K, suggestive of an n-type semiconductor, a rarity among Zintl phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Expanded verification and validation studies of hypersonic aerodynamics with multiple physics-fidelity models

Hypersonic aerothermodynamics is an important domain of modern multiphysics simulation. The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories to predict aerodynamic properties for compressible flows from a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations with momentum-energy integral technique (MEIT), and modified Newtonian aerodynamics with flat-plate boundary layer (MNA+FPBL) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities, as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification activities on the MNA+FPBL model build on previous work by focusing on the viscous portion of the model. Viscous quantities of interest are compared against those from an analytical solution for flat-plate, inclined-plate, and cone geometries. The code verification methodology for the MEIT model is also presented. Test setup and results of code verification tests on the laminar and turbulent models within MEIT are shown. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies on simulations that model the HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel experiments. These experiments are used for validation of all model fidelities. A thorough validation comparison with prediction error and uncertainty is also presented. Three additional HIFiRE-1 experimental runs are simulated in this study, and the solution verification and validation work examines the effects of the associated parameter changes on model performance. Finally, a study is presented that compares the computational costs and fidelities from each of the different models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Climate-driven deoxygenation elevates fishing vulnerability for the ocean's widest ranging shark

Climate-driven expansions of ocean hypoxic zones are predicted to concentrate pelagic fish in oxygenated surface layers, but how expanding hypoxia and fisheries will interact to affect threatened pelagic sharks remains unknown. Here, analysis of satellite-tracked blue sharks and environmental modelling in the eastern tropical Atlantic oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) shows shark maximum dive depths decreased due to combined effects of decreasing dissolved oxygen (DO) at depth, high sea surface temperatures, and increased surface-layer net primary production. Multiple factors associated with climate-driven deoxygenation contributed to blue shark vertical habitat compression, potentially increasing their vulnerability to surface fisheries. Greater intensity of longline fishing effort occurred above the OMZ compared to adjacent waters. Higher shark catches were associated with strong DO gradients, suggesting potential aggregation along suitable DO gradients contributed to habitat compression and higher fishing-induced mortality. Fisheries controls to counteract deoxygenation effects on shark catches will be needed as oceans continue warming.

Vedor, Marisa↗