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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

The impact of the FGGE observing systems in the Southern Hemisphere

Results of studies carried out at the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre (ANMRC) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to assess the impact of FGGE on numerical weather prediction in the Southern Hemisphere are presented. These studies inducate that the FGGE data base had a significant impact on analysis and numerical weather prediction. From the operational standpoint, the most outstanding contribution was made by the drifting buoy data that enabled reliable routine surface pressure analyses to be made over the entire hemisphere. The results of a limited study using the MNMRC data assimilation scheme show that the quality of prediction to 48 hours hinges crucially on both the buoy pressure data and satellite temperature soundings with single level satellite winds having a small impact.

Puri, K.↗

A new post-quantization constrained propagator for rigid tops for use in path integral quantum simulations

In this paper, we extend the previously introduced Post-Quantization Constraints (PQC) procedure [G. Guillon, T. Zeng, and P.-N. Roy, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 184101 (2013)] to construct approximate propagators and energy estimators for different rigid body systems, namely, the spherical, symmetric, and asymmetric tops. These propagators are for use in Path Integral simulations. A thorough discussion of the underlying geometrical concepts is given. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the convergence properties of the density as well as the energy estimators towards their exact counterparts is presented along with illustrative numerical examples. The Post-Quantization Constraints approach can yield converged results and is a practical alternative to so-called sum over states techniques, where one has to expand the propagator as a sum over a complete set of rotational stationary states [as in E. G. Noya, C. Vega, and C. McBride, J. Chem. Phys. 134, 054117 (2011)] because of its modest memory requirements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Numerical simulation of the flow about an F-18 aircraft in the high-alpha regime

The current research is aimed at developing and extending numerical methods to accurately predict the high Reynolds number flow about the NASA F-18 HARV at large angles of attack. The resulting codes are validated by comparison of the numerical results with in-flight aerodynamic measurements and flow visualization obtained on the HARV. Further, computations have been used to provide an analysis and numerical optimization of a pneumatic slot blowing concept, and a mechanical strake concept, for use as potential forebody flow control devices in improving high-alpha maneuverability.

Scott M Murman↗

A process to verify numerical models for seismic fluid-structure interaction in advanced reactor vessels

Seismic design and qualification of a liquid-filled advanced nuclear reactor will have to account for fluid-structure interaction (FSI). Interaction between the tank, internal components, and contained liquid will rely on analysis of numerical models that must be verified and validated. Here this study demonstrates a verification process for models of a base-supported cylindrical tank by comparing numerical predictions and analytical solutions. The numerical models are consistent with the assumptions made to derive analytical solutions, namely, either a rigid or a linear elastic tank, ideal fluid, and small-amplitude, unidirectional, horizontal inputs. One software platform is used to illustrate the process. Seismic FSI analysis is performed using the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and Incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICFD) solvers in LS-DYNA. Reported responses are those used for design, including hydrodynamic pressures on the tank wall, shear forces and moments at the tank base, and wave heights of the contained liquid. The accuracy of the numerical results is discussed. The numerical models are verified for calculating the pressures on the tank wall and reactions at its base. Accurate simulation of wave action is challenging for both solvers. Recommendations for modeling, code development, and steps for verification are provided. Although focused on reactor vessels and one software platform, the verification process described herein is broadly applicable to liquid-filled vessels and other finite element codes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fine-Scale Comparison of TOMS Total Ozone Data with Model Analysis of an Intense Midwestern Cyclone

High-resolution (approx. 40 km) along-track total column ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are compared with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model analysis of an intense cyclone in the Midwestern United States. Total ozone increased by 100 DU (nearly 38%) as the TOMS instrument passed over the associated tropopause fold region. Complex structure is seen in the meteorological fields and compares well with the total ozone observations. Ozone data support the meteorological analysis showing that stratospheric descent was confined to levels above approx. 600 hPa; significant positive potential vorticity at lower levels is attributable to diabetic processes. Likewise, meteorological fields show that two pronounced ozone streamers extending north and northeastward into Canada at high levels are not bands of stratospheric air feeding into the cyclone; one is a channel of exhaust downstream from the system, and the other apparently previously connected the main cyclonic circulation to a southward intrusion of polar stratospheric air and advected eastward as the cut-off cyclone evolved. Good agreement between small-scale features in the model output and total ozone data underscores the latter's potential usefulness in diagnosing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric dynamics and kinematics.

Olsen, Mark A.↗

PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Propagation of femtosecond terawatt laser pulses in N{sub 2} gas including higher-order Kerr effects

Propagation characteristic of femtosecond terawatt laser pulses in N{sub 2} gas with higher-order Kerr effect (HOKE) is investigated. Theoretical analysis shows that HOKE acting as Hamiltonian perturbation can destroy the coherent structure of a laser field and result in the appearance of incoherent patterns. Numerical simulations show that in this case two different types of complex structures can appear. It is found that the high-order focusing terms in HOKE can cause continuous phase shift and off-axis evolution of the laser fields when irregular homoclinic orbit crossings of the field in phase space take place. As the laser propagates, small-scale spatial structures rapidly appear and the evolution of the laser field becomes chaotic. The two complex patterns can switch between each other quasi-periodically. Numerical results show that the two complex patterns are associated with the stochastic evolution of the energy contained in the higher-order shorter-wavelength Fourier modes. Such complex patterns, associated with small-scale filaments, may be typical for laser propagation in a HOKE medium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Pitfalls and guidelines for the numerical evaluation of moderate-order system frequency response

The design and evaluation of a feedback control system via frequency response methods relies heavily upon numerical methods. In application, one can usually develop low order simulation models which for the most part are devoid of numerical problems. However, when complex feedback interactions, for example, between instrument control systems and their flexible mounting structure, must be evaluated, simulation models become moderate to large order and numerical problems become common. A large body of relevant numerical error analysis literature is summarized in a large language understandable to nonspecialists. The intent is to provide engineers using simulation models with an engineering feel for potential numerical problems without getting intertwined in the complexities of the associated mathematical theory. Guidelines are also provided by suggesting alternate state of the art methods which have good numerical evaluation characteristics.

Frisch, H. P.↗

Evaluation of a Drag-Free Control Concept for Missions in Low Earth Orbit

Atmospheric drag causes the greatest uncertainty in the equations of motion for spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). If atmospheric drag eflects can be continuously and autonomously counteracted through the use of a drag-fee control system, drag may essentially be eliminated from the equations of motion for the spacecraft. The main perturbations on the spacecraft will then be those due to the gravitational field, which are much more easily predicted Through dynamical analysis and numerical simulation, this paper presents some potential costs and benefits associated with the fuel used during continuous drag compensation. In light of this cost-benefit analysis, simulation results are used to validate the concept of drag-free control for LEO spacecraft missions having certain characteristics.

Fleck, Melissa E.↗

A Study of the von Neumann Stability Analysis of a Semi-implicit Numerical Method Applied Over the Radial Impurity Transport Equation in Tokamak Plasma

The radial impurity transport equation for tokamak plasma is a form of diffusion–convection–reaction equation. The impurity transport equation is solved to determine the distribution of impurity (non-fuel) ion species with different ionization states perpendicular to magnetic surfaces of tokamak plasma. The equation for each charge (ionization) state Z is a non-linear, second-order in space, first-order in time, parabolic partial differential equation coupled to the previous Z − 1 and the next Z + 1 charge states of the impurity species through its reaction term. The number of differential equations to be solved simultaneously is hence determined by the number of ionization states of the impurity species studied. The solution to the set of these coupled equations can be obtained using a semi-implicit numerical method applied on it. The present study describes the application of von Neumann stability analysis over the semi-implicit numerical method applied over the radial impurity transport equation and determines a generic stability criterion for the method. The stability analysis is further illustrated using the geometry of Aditya tokamak installed at the Institute for Plasma Research Gandhinagar, India as an example. The impurity species considered is oxygen (Atomic number = 8). This leads to a set of eight coupled equations for charge states Z = 1 to 8 over which von Neumann analysis is illustrated in present study.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sensitivity of the ACCP Value Framework Science Benefit Score

NASA’s priorities for Earth Science are informed by the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. In that document, five Designated Observables are identified as priorities for implementation: Aerosols, Cloud-Convection-Precipitation, Surface Biology, Mass Change, and Surface Deformation Change. In 2019, NASA initiated four multi-year studies to formulate, assess, and recommend potential Observing System concepts that are responsive to the recommendations of the Earth Science Decadal Survey. The Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) study investigates opportunities for synergistic science resulting from implementations that combine both Aerosols science objectives and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation science objectives. For the ACCP study, a Value Framework was designed to introduce structure, transparency, and traceability in the mission down-select decision process. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis that was conducted to characterize the behavior of the science benefit score of the ACCP Value Framework. it includes derivations of the sensitivity analysis equations, numerical analyses of the behavior of the combined benefit score, and the conclusions drawn from the results of the work that was conducted. The results of this analysis were key to ensuring that the aggregated science benefit scores would enable the team to differentiate and contrast across concepts.

John McLaughlan↗

Verification of an Analytical Method for Measuring Crystal Nucleation Rates in Glasses from DTA Data

A recently proposed analytical (DTA) method for estimating the nucleation rates in glasses has been evaluated by comparing experimental data with numerically computed nucleation rates for a model lithium disilicate glass. The time and temperature dependent nucleation rates were predicted using the model and compared with those values from an analysis of numerically calculated DTA curves. The validity of the numerical approach was demonstrated earlier by a comparison with experimental data. The excellent agreement between the nucleation rates from the model calculations and fiom the computer generated DTA data demonstrates the validity of the proposed analytical DTA method.

Ranasinghe, K. S.↗

Space plasma research

Four basic areas were covered: development of analysis techniques and software and numerical simulations; data analysis and interpretation; spacecraft sheath studies; and laboratory studies. The important details were documented in terms of either appropriate software documentation or publication in referred publication, conference proceeding and technical reports. The major accomplishments are summarized, followed by a chronological listing of the publications and presentations which resulted from the research.

Comfort, R. H.↗

Use of MODIS Cloud Top Pressure to Improve Assimilation Yields of AIRS Radiances in GSI

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Previously, it has been shown that cloud top designation associated with quality control procedures within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used operationally by a number of Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) partners may not provide the best representation of cloud top pressure (CTP). Because this designated CTP determines which channels are cloud-free and, thus, available for assimilation, ensuring the most accurate representation of this value is imperative to obtaining the greatest impact from satellite radiances. This paper examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing analysis increments and numerical forecasts generated using operational techniques with a research technique that swaps CTP from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the value of CTP calculated from the radiances within GSI.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗