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Qualitative Discovery in Medical Databases

Implication rules have been used in uncertainty reasoning systems to confirm and draw hypotheses or conclusions. However a major bottleneck in developing such systems lies in the elicitation of these rules. This paper empirically examines the performance of evidential inferencing with implication networks generated using a rule induction tool called KAT. KAT utilizes an algorithm for the statistical analysis of empirical case data, and hence reduces the knowledge engineering efforts and biases in subjective implication certainty assignment. The paper describes several experiments in which real-world diagnostic problems were investigated; namely, medical diagnostics. In particular, it attempts to show that: (1) with a limited number of case samples, KAT is capable of inducing implication networks useful for making evidential inferences based on partial observations, and (2) observation driven by a network entropy optimization mechanism is effective in reducing the uncertainty of predicted events.

Maluf, David A.↗

Tenth Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies in Cooperation with the Nineteenth IEEE Symposium on Mass Storage Systems

This document contains copies of those technical papers received in time for publication prior to the Tenth Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies which is being held in cooperation with the Nineteenth IEEE Symposium on Mass Storage Systems at the University of Maryland University College Inn and Conference Center April 15-18, 2002. As one of an ongoing series, this Conference continues to provide a forum for discussion of issues relevant to the ingest, storage, and management of large volumes of data. The Conference encourages all interested organizations to discuss long-term mass storage requirements and experiences in fielding solutions. Emphasis is on current and future practical solutions addressing issues in data management, storage systems and media, data acquisition, long-term retention of data, and data distribution. This year's discussion topics include architecture, future of current technology, storage networking with emphasis on IP storage, performance, standards, site reports, and vendor solutions. Tutorials will be available on perpendicular magnetic recording, object based storage, storage virtualization and IP storage.

Kobler, Benjamin↗

New frontiers in design synthesis

The Intelligent Synthesis Environment (ISE), which is one of the major strategic technologies under development at NASA centers and the University of Virginia, is described. One of the major objectives of ISE is to significantly enhance the rapid creation of innovative affordable products and missions. ISE uses a synergistic combination of leading-edge technologies, including high performance computing, high capacity communications and networking, human-centered computing, knowledge-based engineering, computational intelligence, virtual product development, and product information management. The environment will link scientists, design teams, manufacturers, suppliers, and consultants who participate in the mission synthesis as well as in the creation and operation of the aerospace system. It will radically advance the process by which complex science missions are synthesized, and high-tech engineering Systems are designed, manufactured and operated. The five major components critical to ISE are human-centered computing, infrastructure for distributed collaboration, rapid synthesis and simulation tools, life cycle integration and validation, and cultural change in both the engineering and science creative process. The five components and their subelements are described. Related U.S. government programs are outlined and the future impact of ISE on engineering research and education is discussed.

User-Computer Interface↗

Multidisciplinary Optimization for Aerospace Using Genetic Optimization

In support of the ARMD guidelines NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center is developing a multidisciplinary design and optimization tool This tool will leverage existing tools and practices, and allow the easy integration and adoption of new state-of-the-art software. Optimization has made its way into many mainstream applications. For example NASTRAN(TradeMark) has its solution sequence 200 for Design Optimization, and MATLAB(TradeMark) has an Optimization Tool box. Other packages, such as ZAERO(TradeMark) aeroelastic panel code and the CFL3D(TradeMark) Navier-Stokes solver have no built in optimizer. The goal of the tool development is to generate a central executive capable of using disparate software packages ina cross platform network environment so as to quickly perform optimization and design tasks in a cohesive streamlined manner. A provided figure (Figure 1) shows a typical set of tools and their relation to the central executive. Optimization can take place within each individual too, or in a loop between the executive and the tool, or both.

Pak, Chan-gi↗

Smart and Intelligent Sensors

John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) provides rocket engine propulsion testing for NASA's space programs. Since the development of the Space Shuttle, every Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has undergone acceptance testing at SSC before going to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for integration into the Space Shuttle. The SSME is a large cryogenic rocket engine that uses Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) as the fuel. As NASA moves to the new ARES V launch system, the main engines on the new vehicle, as well as the upper stage engine, are currently base lined to be cryogenic rocket engines that will also use LH2. The main rocket engines for the ARES V will be larger than the SSME, while the upper stage engine will be approximately half that size. As a result, significant quantities of hydrogen will be required during the development, testing, and operation of these rocket engines.Better approaches are needed to simplify sensor integration and help reduce life-cycle costs. 1.Smarter sensors. Sensor integration should be a matter of "plug-and-play" making sensors easier to add to a system. Sensors that implement new standards can help address this problem; for example, IEEE STD 1451.4 defines transducer electronic data sheet (TEDS) templates for commonly used sensors such as bridge elements and thermocouples. When a 1451.4 compliant smart sensor is connected to a system that can read the TEDS memory, all information needed to configure the data acquisition system can be uploaded. This reduces the amount of labor required and helps minimize configuration errors. 2.Intelligent sensors. Data received from a sensor be scaled, linearized; and converted to engineering units. Methods to reduce sensor processing overhead at the application node are needed. Smart sensors using low-cost microprocessors with integral data acquisition and communication support offer the means to add these capabilities. Once a processor is embedded, other features can be added; for example, intelligent sensors can make a health assessment to inform the data acquisition client when sensor performance is suspect. 3.Distributed sample synchronization. Networks of sensors require new ways for synchronizing samples. Standards that address the distributed timing problem (for example, IEEE STD 1588) provide the means to aggregate samples from many distributed smart sensors with sub-microsecond accuracy. 4. Reduction in interconnect. Alternative means are needed to reduce the frequent problems associated with cabling and connectors. Wireless technologies offer the promise of reducing interconnects and simultaneously making it easy to quickly add a sensor to a system.

Lansaw, John↗

Radiator Study for Stationary Lunar Landers

This paper provides an overview of a study to identify, select and evaluate potential heat rejection radiators for application to small, low power, stationary lunar landers. While this study supported risk mitigation activities related to the International Lunar Network project, the radiator concepts and performance assessments are applicable to a wide range of lunar lander applications. The radiator concepts identified and evaluated in this study were aimed at providing reliable heat rejection for landers that might be subjected to hot lunar noon conditions at the equator. As a part of the study, a literature search of lunar radiators was performed from which many radiator designs were developed. These designs were compared in a trade study and two of the most promising were used to develop six concepts. These six radiator concepts went through a more detailed thermal analysis using Thermal Desktop. The analysis considered heat rejection capability, and sensitivity to many factors such as dust deposition, latitude, life, and topographical features like landing on a hill, on a rock, or in a hole/crater. From the result of the analysis, two radiator concepts were selected for recommendation: a flat horizontal plate with a dust cover and a stacked vertical radiator with parabolic reflectors and a one degree tilting mechanism.

OConnor, Brian↗

Object-Oriented Multi-Disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool

An Object-Oriented Optimization (O3) tool was developed that leverages existing tools and practices, and allows the easy integration and adoption of new state-of-the-art software. At the heart of the O3 tool is the Central Executive Module (CEM), which can integrate disparate software packages in a cross platform network environment so as to quickly perform optimization and design tasks in a cohesive, streamlined manner. This object-oriented framework can integrate the analysis codes for multiple disciplines instead of relying on one code to perform the analysis for all disciplines. The CEM was written in FORTRAN and the script commands for each performance index were submitted through the use of the FORTRAN Call System command. In this CEM, the user chooses an optimization methodology, defines objective and constraint functions from performance indices, and provides starting and side constraints for continuous as well as discrete design variables. The structural analysis modules such as computations of the structural weight, stress, deflection, buckling, and flutter and divergence speeds have been developed and incorporated into the O3 tool to build an object-oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDAO) tool.

Pak, Chan-gi↗

NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Advanced Technology AT5 Virtualized Infiniband Report

The NCCS is part of the Computational and Information Sciences and Technology Office (CISTO) of Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Sciences and Exploration Directorate. The NCCS's mission is to enable scientists to increase their understanding of the Earth, the solar system, and the universe by supplying state-of-the-art high performance computing (HPC) solutions. To accomplish this mission, the NCCS (https://www.nccs.nasa.gov) provides high performance compute engines, mass storage, and network solutions to meet the specialized needs of the Earth and space science user communities

cloud↗

An Initial Assessment of a SMAP Soil Moisture Disaggregation Scheme Using TIR Surface Evaporation Data over the Continental United States

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is dedicated toward global soil moisture mapping. Typically, an L-band microwave radiometer has spatial resolution on the order of 36-40 km, which is too coarse for many specific hydro-meteorological and agricultural applications. With the failure of the SMAP active radar within three months of becoming operational, an intermediate (9-km) and finer (3-km) scale soil moisture product solely from the SMAP mission is no longer possible. Therefore, the focus of this study is a disaggregation of the 36-km resolution SMAP passive-only surface soil moisture (SSM) using the Soil Evaporative Efficiency (SEE) approach to spatial scales of 3-km and 9-km. The SEE was computed using thermal-infrared (TIR) estimation of surface evaporation over Continental U.S. (CONUS). The disaggregation results were compared with the 3 months of SMAP-Active (SMAP-A) and Active/Passive (AP) products, while comparisons with SMAP-Enhanced (SMAP-E), SMAP-Passive (SMAP-P), as well as with more than 180 Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) stations across CONUS were performed for a 19 month period. At the 9-km spatial scale, the TIR-Downscaled data correlated strongly with the SMAP-E SSM both spatially (r = 0.90) and temporally (r = 0.87). In comparison with SCAN observations, overall correlations of 0.49 and 0.47; bias of −0.022 and −0.019 and unbiased RMSD of 0.105 and 0.100 were found for SMAP-E and TIR-Downscaled SSM across the Continental U.S., respectively. At 3-km scale, TIR-Downscaled and SMAP-A had a mean temporal correlation of only 0.27. In terms of gain statistics, the highest percentage of SCAN sites with positive gains (>55%) was observed with the TIR-Downscaled SSM at 9-km. Overall, the TIR-based downscaled SSM showed strong correspondence with SMAP-E; compared to SCAN, and overall both SMAP-E and TIR-Downscaled performed similarly, however, gain statistics show that TIR-Downscaled SSM slightly outperformed SMAP-E.

Disaggregation↗

Cloud Thermodynamic Phase Detection with Polarimetrically Sensitive Passive Sky Radiometers

The primary goal of this project has been to investigate if ground-based visible and near-infrared passive radiometers that have polarization sensitivity can determine the thermodynamic phase of overlying clouds, i.e. if they are comprised of liquid droplets or ice particles. While this knowledge is important by itself for our understanding of the global climate, it can also help improve cloud property retrieval algorithms that use total (unpolarized) radiance to determine Cloud Optical Depth (COD). This is a potentially unexploited capability of some instruments in the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), which, if practical, could expand the products of that global instrument network at minimal additional cost. We performed simulations that found, for zenith observations, cloud thermodynamic phase is often expressed in the sign of the Q component of the Stokes polarization vector. We chose our reference frame as the plane containing solar and observation vectors, so the sign of Q indicates the polarization direction, parallel (negative) or perpendicular (positive) to that plane. Since the quantity of polarization is inversely proportional to COD, optically thin clouds are most likely to create a signal greater than instrument noise. Besides COD and instrument accuracy, other important factors for the determination of cloud thermodynamic phase are the solar and observation geometry (scattering angles between 40 and 60 degrees are best), and the properties of ice particles (pristine particles may have halos or other features that make them difficult to distinguish from water droplets at specific scattering angles, while extreme ice crystal aspect ratios polarize more than compact particles). We tested the conclusions of our simulations using data from polarimetrically sensitive versions of the Cimel 318 sun photometerradiometer that comprise AERONET. Most algorithms that exploit Cimel polarized observations use the Degree of Linear Polarization (DoLP), not the individual Stokes vector elements (such as Q). For this reason, we had no information about the accuracy of Cimel observed Q and the potential for cloud phase determination. Indeed, comparisons to ceilometer observations with a single polarized spectral channel version of the Cimel at a site in the Netherlands showed little correlation. Comparisons to Lidar observations with a more recently developed, multi-wavelength polarized Cimel in Maryland, USA, show more promise. This divergence between simulations and observations has prompted us to begin the development of a small test instrument called the Sky Polarization Radiometric Instrument for Test and Evaluation (SPRITE). This instrument is specifically devoted to the accurate observation of Q, and the testing of calibration and uncertainty assessment techniques, with the ultimate goal of understanding the practical feasibility of these measurements.

Knobelspiesse, Kirk D.↗

SLR Data: from Station to User

The ILRS provides laser ranging data and products on an operational basis to geodesy analysts as well as a broader scientific community. ILRS is one of four services within the International Association for Geodesy (IAG) supporting space geodesy. IAG established these services to facilitate international cooperation and scientific research: Networks, Data centers, Analysis groups. Services perform successful operations through cooperation of many international organizations, leveraging their respective resources to all levels of service functionality.

Noll, Carey↗

Modeling Ring-Opening Polymerization with Machine-Learned Committors

Many important industrial and biological processes depend on ring-opening polymerization (ROP), including large-scale production polymers, such as nylon 6, and a variety of biodegradable polymers and high-performance resins. Large-scale simulations (>200K atoms) of ROP were performed using a deep neural network-based method that captured the effect of the local chemical environment of the reactive sites using training data from quantum chemical methods. The utility of this method was demonstrated by modeling the cationic ROP of bis-benzoxazine, a promising resin for use in advanced high-temperature application composites (>200°C). Density functional theory calculations were used to map out the various ring opening and polymerization reaction paths that occur during the thermal processing of bis-benzoxazine. The probabilities of these reactions, as a function of local atomic configurations, were used to construct committor functions using a neural network approach. The learned committor functions were then used to determine when a particular reaction occurred within the REACTER framework for reactive molecular dynamics simulations. The experimentally observed exotherm that occurs during bis-benzoxazine ROP was captured in an effective manner in the simulations by imposing a local heating of the system that corresponds to the enthalpy of reaction for each reaction. The dependence of the final polymer morphology on the ROP reaction temperature was analyzed at the molecular scale. The results presented in this work indicate that machine-learned committor functions are a promising approach for incorporating high-fidelity reactivity criteria that capture the effect of local chemical environments into large-scale polymerization simulations.

machine learning, polymer simulations, molecular d↗

Resource Characterization to Estimate Potential for Electricity Co-Production at Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that an annual average of 25 billion barrels of hot water are produced from oil and gas wells within the United States. The thermal energy available in the co-produced water stream is usually discarded, as the produced waters are considered an inconvenience by the operators and are disposed of using injection wells. However, utilizing organic Rankine cycle (ORC) generators, a vast amount of thermal energy can be captured and converted into electricity (albeit at relatively low efficiency due to the low temperatures). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with Transitional Energy and Grant Canyon Oil & Gas, evaluated the feasibility of geothermal co-production of electricity by utilizing existing oil wells in Blackburn oil field in Nevada. The once prolific Blackburn oil field is located in Pine Valley, approximately 45 miles east-southeast of Elko, Nevada. Currently, the wells targeting the highly fractured Devonian Nevada dolomite reservoir are operating at a water cut ratio of more than 99%, with individual fluid (oil and water) production rates reaching 7.4 L/s (4,021 BBL/day). Analysis of publicly available data showed that the combination of the suitable wells' maximum historical production rates reached 22.90 L/s. The production from these wells occurs naturally and the wells are choked (and even shut down) by the operator to mitigate excessive water production, indicating a strong reservoir recharge and future opportunity to increase the water production for geothermal electricity generation. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the productivity of the existing wells, the performance of the reservoir, the surface network, and the operational constraints in order to achieve 1 MWe of electricity production from the field's water production. Utilizing the GEOPHIRES tool, we have determined that a twofold to threefold increase in the total fluid production, compared to the historical production under artificial restraint (choke), is required to reach a 1-MWe net target output for a low-temperature ORC system with air-cooled condensers. Lower flow rates would be required when utilizing water-based condensers instead of air-cooled condensers. However, that would require a constant supply of cold water, which may be challenging given the arid environment of the project site.

Blackburn↗

Neural Network Prediction of Strong Lensing Systems with Domain Adaptation and Uncertainty Quantification

Modeling strong gravitational lenses is computationally expensive for the complex data from modern and next-generation cosmic surveys. Deep learning has emerged as a promising approach for finding lenses and predicting lensing parameters, such as the Einstein radius. Mean-variance Estimators (MVEs) are a common approach for obtaining aleatoric (data) uncertainties from a neural network prediction. However, neural networks have not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data successfully - e.g., when trained on simulated data and applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of MVEs in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) on strong lensing data. The source domain data is noiseless, and the target domain data has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that adding UDA to MVE increases the accuracy on the target data by a factor of about two over an MVE model without UDA. Including UDA also permits much more well-calibrated aleatoric uncertainty predictions. Advancements in this approach may enable future applications of MVE models to real observational data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Finding Real Uncertainties From Physical Simulations

Modeling strong gravitational lenses is computationally expensive for the complex data from modern and next-generation cosmic surveys. Deep learning has emerged as a promising approach for finding lenses and predicting lensing parameters, such as the Einstein radius. Mean-variance Estimators (MVEs) are a common approach for obtaining aleatoric (data) uncertainties from a neural network prediction. However, neural networks have not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data successfully - e.g., when trained on simulated data and applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of MVEs in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) on strong lensing data. The source domain data is noiseless, and the target domain data has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that adding UDA to MVE increases the accuracy on the target data by a factor of about two over an MVE model without UDA. Including UDA also permits much more well-calibrated aleatoric uncertainty predictions. Advancements in this approach may enable future applications of MVE models to real observational data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Machine Learning for Predicting Multipactor Susceptibility in Planar RF Structures

Multipactor discharge is a persistent challenge in high-power microwave (HPM) and accelerator systems, where secondary electron avalanches can cause heating, vacuum degradation, and failure. This work presents the first supervised machine learning (ML) framework for multipactor prediction, trained on high-fidelity 3D Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulation data in planar geometries. The model maps operational, geometric, and material-dependent secondary electron yield (SEY) parameters to the time-averaged electron growth rate, enabling rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts. Among the models evaluated, tree-based ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Extra Trees demonstrate superior generalization to unseen materials compared to neural networks such as multilayer perceptron (MLP). Performance metrics, including Intersection over Union (IoU), Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM), and Pearson correlation, show close agreement with simulation benchmarks. Principal Component Analysis attributes generalization limits to material feature-space disjointedness.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗