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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Safety-assured, real-time neural active fault management for resilient microgrids integration

Federated-learning-based active fault management (AFM) is devised to achieve real-time safety assurance for microgrids and the main grid during faults. AFM was originally formulated as a distributed optimization problem. Here, federated learning is used to train each microgrid's network with training data achieved from distributed optimization. The main contribution of this work is to replace the optimization-based AFM control algorithm with a learning-based AFM control algorithm. The replacement transfers computation from online to offline. With this replacement, the control algorithm can meet real-time requirements for a system with dozens of microgrids. By contrast, distributed-optimization-based fault management can output reference values fast enough for a system with several microgrids. More microgrids, however, lead to more computation time with optimization-based method. Distributed-optimization-based fault management would fail real-time requirements for a system with dozens of microgrids. Controller hardware-in-the-loop real-time simulations demonstrate that learning-based AFM can output reference values within 10 ms irrespective of the number of microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗
NASA NTRS2013

Scatter-Reducing Sounding Filtration Using a Genetic Algorithm and Mean Monthly Standard Deviation

Retrieval algorithms like that used by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 mission generate massive quantities of data of varying quality and reliability. A computationally efficient, simple method of labeling problematic datapoints or predicting soundings that will fail is required for basic operation, given that only 6% of the retrieved data may be operationally processed. This method automatically obtains a filter designed to reduce scatter based on a small number of input features. Most machine-learning filter construction algorithms attempt to predict error in the CO2 value. By using a surrogate goal of Mean Monthly STDEV, the goal is to reduce the retrieved CO2 scatter rather than solving the harder problem of reducing CO2 error. This lends itself to improved interpretability and performance. This software reduces the scatter of retrieved CO2 values globally based on a minimum number of input features. It can be used as a prefilter to reduce the number of soundings requested, or as a post-filter to label data quality. The use of the MMS (Mean Monthly Standard deviation) provides a much cleaner, clearer filter than the standard ABS(CO2-truth) metrics previously employed by competitor methods. The software's main strength lies in a clearer (i.e., fewer features required) filter that more efficiently reduces scatter in retrieved CO2 rather than focusing on the more complex (and easily removed) bias issues.

Mandrake, Lukas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark Energy Survey Deep Field photometric redshift performance and training incompleteness assessment

Context. The determination of accurate photometric redshifts (photo-zs) in large imaging galaxy surveys is key for cosmological studies. One of the most common approaches are machine learning techniques. These methods require a spectroscopic or reference sample to train the algorithms. Attention has to be paid to the quality and properties of these samples since they are key factors in the estimation of reliable photo-zs. Aims. The goal of this work is to calculate the photo-zs for the Y3 DES Deep Fields catalogue using the DNF machine learning algorithm. Moreover, we want to develop techniques to assess the incompleteness of the training sample and metrics to study how incompleteness affects the quality of photometric redshifts. Finally, we are interested in comparing the performance obtained with respect to the EAzY template fitting approach on Y3 DES Deep Fields catalogue. Methods. We have emulated -- at brighter magnitude -- the training incompleteness with a spectroscopic sample whose redshifts are known to have a measurable view of the problem. We have used a principal component analysis to graphically assess incompleteness and to relate it with the performance parameters provided by DNF. Finally, we have applied the results about the incompleteness to the photo-z computation on Y3 DES Deep Fields with DNF and estimated its performance. Results. The photo-zs for the galaxies on DES Deep Fields have been computed with the DNF algorithm and added to the Y3 DES Deep Fields catalogue. They are available at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/y3a2/Y3deepfields. Some techniques have been developed to evaluate the performance in the absence of "true" redshift and to assess completeness. We have studied... (Partial abstract)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2006

Enabling the Discovery of Recurring Anomalies in Aerospace System Problem Reports using High-Dimensional Clustering Techniques

This paper describes the results of a significant research and development effort conducted at NASA Ames Research Center to develop new text mining techniques to discover anomalies in free-text reports regarding system health and safety of two aerospace systems. We discuss two problems of significant importance in the aviation industry. The first problem is that of automatic anomaly discovery about an aerospace system through the analysis of tens of thousands of free-text problem reports that are written about the system. The second problem that we address is that of automatic discovery of recurring anomalies, i.e., anomalies that may be described m different ways by different authors, at varying times and under varying conditions, but that are truly about the same part of the system. The intent of recurring anomaly identification is to determine project or system weakness or high-risk issues. The discovery of recurring anomalies is a key goal in building safe, reliable, and cost-effective aerospace systems. We address the anomaly discovery problem on thousands of free-text reports using two strategies: (1) as an unsupervised learning problem where an algorithm takes free-text reports as input and automatically groups them into different bins, where each bin corresponds to a different unknown anomaly category; and (2) as a supervised learning problem where the algorithm classifies the free-text reports into one of a number of known anomaly categories. We then discuss the application of these methods to the problem of discovering recurring anomalies. In fact the special nature of recurring anomalies (very small cluster sizes) requires incorporating new methods and measures to enhance the original approach for anomaly detection. ?& pant 0-

Srivastava, Ashok, N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Deep Learning v0.1

Here, we present a method that uses protein levels to predict times series of metabolite concentrations. Understanding this type of pathway dynamics is important in order to predict the behavior of the pathway and, more pragmatically, to be able to design biological systems (such as strains bioengineered to produce chemical products) reliably. Typically, for this purpose, kinetic models consisting of differential equations based on the Michaelis-Menten dynamics have been used in the past. However, these methods can rarely produce good fits to measured data time series. Possibly, this happens because the kinetic constants are unknown or are different from the ones measured in vivo, or perhaps because Michaelis-Menten dynamics is not a satisfactory description. In order to improve the predictive nature of these kinetic models we have eliminated the Michaelis-Menten description of pathway dynamics and we have substituted it by algorithms that automatically learn these dynamics from previously obtained metabolomics and proteomics data using machine learning approaches. Specifically, kinetic deep learning uses deep learning to map proteomics time series to metabolite concentration time series, instead of learning the first metabolite derivative and integrating in (as in the first version of kinetic learning). This approach is shown to provide good to excellent results with a data set specifically collected for this purpose.

Garcia Martin, Hector [Joint BioEnergy Institute (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided discovery of polymer membranes for CO 2 separation with genetic algorithm

Designing polymer membranes with high gas permeability and selectivity is a difficult multi-task constrained problem due to the trade-off between these two properties. In this work, we present a machine learning (ML) driven genetic algorithm to tackle the design problem of polymer membranes for CO 2 separation from N 2 and O 2 . Using literature data of permeability for three gases, we constructed multiple ML models with different fingerprinting featurization schemes to predict gas permeabilities. Then, we employed a genetic algorithm to design new polymers and evaluated their performance using our ML models. We were able to identify new polymer membranes that are promising for both CO 2 /N 2 and CO 2 /O 2 separations. Further, the top discovered polymers are predicted to have high glass transition temperatures. Similarly, the pyridine functionality was found in ≈20% of the predicted polymers. This framework can be used to design polymers for any application involving constrained optimization. Finally, we outlined the challenges and opportunities with using ML guided data-driven inverse design of polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Composable optimization and control toolkit for scientific applications

Applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) can improve the computational efficiency and scientific research output. In order to improve interoperability and reuse of AI/ML software, a composable approach is required. This talk presents a composable approach for scientific workflow development that allows seamless integration of various modules developed by independent researchers. These practices will reduce redundant software development by allowing re-use of workflow modules across projects, teams, departments and facilities. We will present three use cases that follow the composable approach namely, Scientific Optimization and Control Toolkit (SOCT), SciDAC QuantOm workflow, and JLab Nuclear Physics experimental workflows. This talk will dive deeper into SOCT and present the details of the composable code development for optimization and control algorithms using reinforcement learning.

Rajput, Kishansingh↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning technique for isotopic determination of radioisotopes using HPGe γ-ray spectra

γ-ray spectroscopy is a quantitative, non-destructive technique that may be utilized for the identification and quantitative isotopic estimation of radionuclides. Traditional methods of isotopic determination have various challenges that contribute to statistical and systematic uncertainties in the estimated isotopics. Furthermore, these methods typically require numerous pre-processing steps, and have only been rigorously tested in laboratory settings with limited shielding. Here, in this work, we examine the application of a number of machine learning based regression algorithms as alternatives to conventional approaches for analyzing γ-ray spectroscopy data in the Emergency Response arena. This approach not only eliminates many steps in the analysis procedure, and therefore offers potential to reduce this source of systematic uncertainty, but is also shown to offer comparable performance to conventional approaches in the Emergency Response Application.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A semi-supervised machine learning detector for physics events in tokamak discharges

Databases of physics events have been used in various fusion research applications, including the development of scaling laws and disruption avoidance algorithms, yet they can be time-consuming and tedious to construct. This paper presents a novel application of the label spreading semi-supervised learning algorithm to accelerate this process by detecting distinct events in a large dataset of discharges, given few manually labeled examples. A high detection accuracy (> 85%) for H-L back transitions and initially rotating locked modes is demonstrated on a dataset of hundreds of discharges from DIII-D with manually identified events for which only 3 discharges are initially labeled by the user. Lower yet reasonable performance (~75%) is also demonstrated for the core radiative collapse, an event with a much lower prevalence in the dataset. Additionally, analysis of the performance sensitivity indicates that the same set of algorithmic parameters is optimal for each event. Furthermore, this suggests that the method can be applied to detect a variety of other events not included in this paper, given that the event is well described by a set of 0D signals robustly available on many discharges. Procedures for analysis of new events are demonstrated, showing automatic event detection with increasing fidelity as the user strategically adds manually labeled examples. Detections on Alcator C-Mod and EAST are also shown, demonstrating the potential for this to be used on a multi-tokamak dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of vacancy defect diffusion paths in high entropy alloys via machine learning on molecular dynamics data

Identifying the diffusion path of point defects is a critical step in understanding their evolution and the mechanisms of related phenomena. Defect diffusion occurs at small length and time scales, with impacts on material properties that may continue to evolve over ns to μs, ms, and the continuum scale (s, min, etc., and cm, m, etc.). The time scale accessible to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is limited by small step sizes, typically in the fs range. Thus, surrogate models of MD simulations through machine learning (ML)-based algorithms are of great interest, especially for complex systems such as high entropy alloys (HEAs). In this work, dynamics governing vacancy migration in HEA were approximated with graph convolutional network (GCN) models as ansatzes for kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) rate catalogs. Network design considered that diffusion in crystalline solids generally depends on interactions between defects and their immediate neighbor atoms. Graphs represented the vacancy surroundings, MD-generated trajectories provided training and comparison datasets, and unsupervised GCN models approximated interatomic dynamics governing vacancy migration in HEAs as ansatzes for KMC. A proof-of-concept model trained on MD data for the Fe, Ni, Cr, Co, and Cu HEA environment was used with two different neighbor interactions to assess the feasibility of training a GCN to predict vacancy defect transition rates in the HEA environment. The resulting setup rapidly generated MD-formatted synthetic trajectories based on dynamics learned from the MD training set, with a time acceleration of roughly two orders of magnitude and a similar diffusion coefficient to MD observations. Additionally, Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) calculations were performed on randomly generated FeNiCrCoCu HEA structures to determine vacancy migration barriers across nearest-neighbor sites. Transition probabilities for each jump, categorized by atomic type, were extracted from these calculations. NEB-based and GCN-based approaches led to similar outcomes.

Reimer, C↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to personal and property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The comparison of deep learning to the random forest algorithm is motivated by the desire to utilize a machine learning architecture that allows for the future inclusion of common uncertainty quantification techniques and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A semi-supervised machine learning detector for physics events in tokamak discharges

Databases of physics events have been used in various fusion research applications, including the development of scaling laws and disruption avoidance algorithms, yet they can be time-consuming and tedious to construct. This paper presents a novel application of the label spreading semi-supervised learning algorithm to accelerate this process by detecting distinct events in a large dataset of discharges, given few manually labeled examples. A high detection accuracy (>85%) for H-L back transitions and initially rotating locked modes is demonstrated on a dataset of hundreds of discharges from DIII-D with manually identified events for which only 3 discharges are initially labeled by the user. Lower yet reasonable performance (~75%) is also demonstrated for the core radiative collapse, an event with a much lower prevalence in the dataset. Additionally, analysis of the performance sensitivity indicates that the same set of algorithmic parameters is optimal for each event. This suggests that the method can be applied to detect a variety of other events not included in this paper, given that the event is well described by a set of 0D signals robustly available on many discharges. Procedures for analysis of new events are demonstrated, showing automatic event detection with increasing fidelity as the user strategically adds manually labeled examples. Detections on Alcator C-Mod and EAST are also shown, demonstrating the potential for this to be used on a multi-tokamak dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous Mixtures of Dictionary Functions to Approximate Subspace Invariance in Koopman Operators: Why Deep Koopman Operators Work

Abstract Koopman operators model nonlinear dynamics as a linear dynamic system acting on a nonlinear function as the state. This nonstandard state is often called a Koopman observable and is usually approximated numerically by a superposition of functions drawn from a dictionary . In a widely used algorithm, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), the dictionary functions are drawn from a fixed class of functions. Deep learning combined with EDMD has been used to learn novel dictionary functions in an algorithm called deep dynamic mode decomposition (deepDMD). The learned representation both (1) accurately models and (2) scales well with the dimension of the original nonlinear system. In this paper, we analyze the learned dictionaries from deepDMD and explore the theoretical basis for their strong performance. We explore State-Inclusive Logistic Lifting (SILL) dictionary functions to approximate Koopman observables. Error analysis of these dictionary functions show they satisfy a property of subspace approximation, which we define as uniform finite approximate closure. Typically, a Koopman dictionary’s nonlinear functions are homogeneous. In this paper, we discover that structured mixing of heterogeneous dictionary functions drawn from different classes of nonlinear functions achieve the same accuracy and dimensional scaling as the deep-learning-based deepDMD algorithm Yeung et al. ( In: 2019 American Control Conference (ACC), 2019). We specifically show this by building a heterogeneous dictionary comprised of SILL functions and conjunctive radial basis functions (RBFs). This mixed dictionary achieves similar accuracy and dimensional scaling to deepDMD with an order of magnitude reduction in parameters, while maintaining geometric interpretability. These results strengthen the viability of dictionary-based Koopman models to solving high-dimensional nonlinear learning problems.

Johnson, Charles A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward improved urban earthquake monitoring through deep-learning-based noise suppression

Earthquake monitoring in urban settings is essential but challenging, due to the strong anthropogenic noise inherent to urban seismic recordings. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based denoising algorithm, UrbanDenoiser, to filter out urban seismological noise. UrbanDenoiser strongly suppresses noise relative to the signals, because it was trained using waveform datasets containing rich noise sources from the urban Long Beach dense array and high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) earthquake signals from the rural San Jacinto dense array. Application to the dense array data and an earthquake sequence in an urban area shows that UrbanDenoiser can increase signal quality and recover signals at an SNR level down to ~0 dB. Earthquake location using our denoised Long Beach data does not support the presence of mantle seismicity beneath Los Angeles but suggests a fault model featuring shallow creep, intermediate locking, and localized stress concentration at the base of the seismogenic zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modular machine learning-based elastoplasticity: Generalization in the context of limited data

The development of highly accurate constitutive models for materials that undergo path-dependent processes continues to be a complex challenge in computational solid mechanics. Challenges arise both in considering the appropriate model assumptions and from the viewpoint of data availability, verification, and validation. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been proposed that aim to establish stress-evolution laws that avoid user-chosen functional forms by relying on machine learning representations and algorithms. However, these approaches not only require a significant amount of data but also need data that probes the full stress space with a variety of complex loading paths. Furthermore, they rarely enforce all necessary thermodynamic principles as hard constraints. Hence, they are in particular not suitable for low-data or limited-data regimes, where the first arises from the cost of obtaining the data and the latter from the experimental limitations of obtaining labeled data, which is commonly the case in engineering applications. In this work, we discuss a hybrid framework that can work on a variable amount of data by relying on the modularity of the elastoplasticity formulation where each component of the model can be chosen to be either a classical phenomenological or a data-driven model depending on the amount of available information and the complexity of the response. The method is tested on synthetic uniaxial data coming from simulations as well as cyclic experimental data for structural materials. The discovered material models are found to not only interpolate well but also allow for accurate extrapolation in a thermodynamically consistent manner far outside the domain of the training data. This ability to extrapolate from limited data was the main reason for the early and continued success of phenomenological models and the main shortcoming in machine learning-enabled constitutive modeling approaches. Training aspects and details of the implementation of these models into Finite Element simulations are discussed and analyzed.

42 ENGINEERING↗