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Recent Improvements to the LAURA and HARA Codes

This paper describes recent improvements to the LAURA and HARA codes. LAURA is a CFD code for aerothermodynamics, and HARA evaluates the shock-layer radiation that provides the radiative source term for the flowfield energy equations and radiative heating to a surface. The next release of LAURA and HARA includes a variety of new capabilities. These new capabilities include an automated uncertainty quantification workflow for radiative heat transfer, options for specifying surface roughness and turbulent transition location in the algebraic turbulence models, and improved grid and solution interpolation techniques. Additionally, the computational efficiency of both LAURA and HARA have been improved. Optimization of the MPI communication routines in LAURA are shown to improve the parallel efficiency of the primary flow when running with multiple processes per block, and recent optimization of HARA leverage graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration in the radiation calculations. Using GPU acceleration of HARA is shown to decrease the cost of the radiation line-of-sight calculation by approximately one order of magnitude for a 10.5 km/s Earth entry simulation.

LAURA HARA CFD 5.6↗

DOE OSTI2024

Frozen Freedom: Unleashing Grocery Store Demand Flexibility: Preprint

Grocery stores consumed approximately 3% of total electricity used by commercial buildings in the U.S. in 2018 (EIA 2018), representing a unique end-use load profile characterized by the critical use of refrigerated display cases. Exploring demand response (DR) scenarios in grocery stores presents an opportunity to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of surrounding communities. In addition, recent studies demonstrate that implementing control algorithms considering demand flexibility strategies can lead to load and peak reductions in standalone refrigerated display cases. Because small business grocery stores operate on thin margins, the energy bill cost savings DR might provide could make a positive difference toward continued operations. Still, uncertainty remains about the extent of demand flexibility potential controls could provide when coupling refrigeration with whole building operation. To enhance economic viability and grid stability, it is essential to quantify the load flexibility capability of grocery stores. Advanced controls can optimize energy consumption by responding to load shedding, shifting, and DR events, as well as daily Time-of-Use (TOU) rates without compromising food safety. Using both quantitative data and interviews with community-based organizations, we developed a full-size store model and two small store models with controlled refrigerated cases, HVAC, and lighting systems based on actual grocery store properties. Through simulations, we have assessed load flexibility strategies with varied DR events. The results highlight potential for energy and peak reduction with advanced or basic controls. However, interviews and data indicate that more support is needed to make DR strategies consistently accessible to small grocery stores.

demand flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage and Generation in Support of Electrified Rental Car Centers

Electrification of rental car centers at major airports is expected to generate tens of MW in additional power loads. The magnitude of these loads poses challenges including high utility costs, expensive and lengthy distribution capacity upgrades, and disruptions to traditional operation. Behind-the-meter stationary battery storage and onsite photovoltaic generation offer a viable solution to these challenges without impacting the operation and business model of rental car companies, defined by minimal fleet inventory and short vehicle dwell time. Using data-driven syn-thetic charging loads for the rental car center at the Dallas/Fort Worth airport in the United States, we show that optimally-designed and controlled behind - the- meter resources can reduce the lifecycle cost of electrified rental centers by an average 41 % and reduce peak grid demand by 64 %, deferring the need for distribution upgrades or potentially avoiding it altogether.

battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2014

Value of Demand Response: Quantities from Production Cost Modeling (Presentation)

Demand response (DR) resources present a potentially important source of grid flexibility particularly on future systems with high penetrations of variable wind and solar power generation. However, managed loads in grid models are limited by data availability and modeling complexity. This presentation focuses on the value of co-optimized DR resources to provide energy and ancillary services in a production cost model. There are significant variations in the availabilities of different types of DR resources, which affect both the operational savings as well as the revenue for each DR resource. The results presented include the system-wide avoided fuel and generator start-up costs as well as the composite revenue for each DR resource by energy and operating reserves. In addition, the revenue is characterized by the capacity, energy, and units of DR enabled.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

DOE OSTI2020

Communication-Constrained Expansion Planning for Resilient Distribution Systems

Distributed generation and remotely controlled switches have emerged as important technologies to improve the resiliency of distribution grids against extreme weather-related disturbances. Therefore it becomes important to study how best to place them on the grid in order to meet a resiliency criteria, while minimizing costs and capturing their dependencies on the associated communication systems that sustain their distributed operations. This paper introduces the Optimal Resilient Design Problem for Distribution and Communication Systems (ORDPDC) to address this need. The ORDPDC is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program that captures the physical laws of distribution systems, the communication connectivity of the smart grid components, and a set of scenarios that specifies which components are affected by potential disasters. The paper proposes an exact branch-and-price algorithm for the ORDPDC that features a strong lower bound and a variety of acceleration schemes to address degeneracy. The ORDPDC model and branch-and-price algorithm were evaluated on a variety of test cases with varying disaster intensities and network topologies. The results demonstrate the significant impact of the network topologies on the expansion plans and costs, as well as the computational benefits of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Scaling Structured Multigrid to 500K+ Cores Through Coarse-Grid Redistribution

The effcient solution of sparse, linear systems resulting from the discretization of partial differential equations is crucial to the performance of many physics-based simulations. The algorithmic optimality of multilevel approaches for common discretizations makes them a good candidate for an efficient parallel solver. Yet, modern architectures for high-performance computing systems continue to challenge the parallel scalability of multilevel solvers. While algebraic multigrid methods are robust for solving a variety of problems, the increasing importance of data locality and cost of data movement in modern architectures motivates the need to carefully exploit structure in the problem. Robust logically structured variational multigrid methods, such as Black Box Multigrid (BoxMG), maintain structure throughout the multigrid hierarchy. This avoids indirection and increased coarse- grid communication costs typical in parallel algebraic multigrid. Nevertheless, the parallel scalability of structured multigrid is challenged by coarse-grid problems where the overhead in communication dominates computation. In this paper, an algorithm is introduced for redistributing coarse-grid problems through incremental agglomeration. Guided by a predictive performance model, this algorithm provides robust redistribution decisions for structured multilevel solvers. A two-dimensional diffusion problem is used to demonstrate the significant gain in performance of this algorithm over the previous approach that used agglomeration to one processor. In addition, the parallel scalability of this approach

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-timescale operations of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems for reserve and thermal product provision

In this paper, an optimal operation strategy of a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system (N-R HES), in conjunction with a district heating network, is developed within a comprehensive multi-timescale electricity market framework. The grid-connected N-R HES is simulated to explore the capabilities and benefits of N-R HES of providing energy products, different reserve products, and thermal products. An N-R HES optimization and control strategy is formulated to exploit the benefits from the hybrid energy system in terms of both energy and ancillary services. A case study is performed on the customized NREL-118 bus test system with high renewable penetrations, based on a multi-timescale (i.e., three-cycle) production cost model. Both day-ahead and real-time market clearing prices are determined from the market model simulation. In conclusion, the results show that the N-R HES can contribute to the reserve requirements and also meet the thermal load, thereby increasing the economic efficiency of N-R HES (with increased revenue ranging from 1.55% to 35.25% at certain cases) compared to the baseline case where reserve and thermal power exports are not optimized.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Evaluating the design of an earth radiation budget instrument with system simulations. Part 2: Minimization of instantaneous sampling errors for CERES-I

Much of the new record of broadband earth radiation budget satellite measurements to be obtained during the late 1990s and early twenty-first century will come from the dual-radiometer Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument (CERES-I) flown aboard sun-synchronous polar orbiters. Simulation studies conducted in this work for an early afternoon satellite orbit indicate that spatial root-mean-square (rms) sampling errors of instantaneous CERES-I shortwave flux estimates will range from about 8.5 to 14.0 W/m on a 2.5 deg latitude and longitude grid resolution. Rms errors in longwave flux estimates are only about 20% as large and range from 1.5 to 3.5 W/sq m. These results are based on an optimal cross-track scanner design that includes 50% footprint overlap to eliminate gaps in the top-of-the-atmosphere coverage, and a 'smallest' footprint size to increase the ratio in the number of observations lying within to the number of observations lying on grid area boundaries. Total instantaneous measurement error also depends on the variability of anisotropic reflectance and emission patterns and on retrieval methods used to generate target area fluxes. Three retrieval procedures from both CERES-I scanners (cross-track and rotating azimuth plane) are used. (1) The baseline Earth Radiaton Budget Experiment (ERBE) procedure, which assumes that errors due to the use of mean angular dependence models (ADMs) in the radiance-to-flux inversion process nearly cancel when averaged over grid areas. (2) To estimate N, instantaneous ADMs are estimated from the multiangular, collocated observations of the two scanners. These observed models replace the mean models in computation of satellite flux estimates. (3) The scene flux approach, conducts separate target-area retrievals for each ERBE scene category and combines their results using area weighting by scene type. The ERBE retrieval performs best when the simulated radiance field departs from the ERBE mean models by less than 10%. For larger perturbations, both the scene flux and collocation methods produce less error than the ERBE retrieval. The scene flux technique is preferable, however, because it involves fewer restrictive assumptions.

Stowe, Larry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Reliability and Operational Efficiency of Small-Scale Hydroelectric Distributed Generation

Reliability and resilience are critical concerns for distributed generation (DG) at the rural electric level. The integration of renewable energy sources, such as small-scale hydroelectric distributed generators (hydro DGs), introduces operational challenges, particularly regarding aging infrastructure and grid stability. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven Machine Learning (ML) models and applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promising solutions for optimizing DG operations and enhancing resilience. This paper explores AI-based models for improving efficiency, fault resolution, and outage mitigation in small-scale hydro DGs. Furthermore, it highlights the development of a centralized, AI-powered information portal for rural electric cooperatives and municipalities. The research evaluates hydro DG plant models and discusses the applicability of AI-powered question-answering tools for real-time operations, focusing on statistical data, load flow, voltage regulation, and generation power. The findings demonstrate AI’s potential to transform DG management to ensure greater stability and resilience in rural electric grids.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the input space characterized by epistemic uncertainties. The consequent Dynamic Event Tree performs the exploration of the aleatory space. In the RAVEN code, a more general approach has been developed, not limiting the exploration of the epistemic space through a Monte Carlo method but using all the forward sampling strategies RAVEN currently employs. The user can combine a Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Stratified and Monte Carlo sampling in order to explore the epistemic space, without any limitation. From this pre-sampling, the Dynamic Event Tree sampler starts its aleatory space exploration. As reported by the authors, the Dynamic Event Tree is a good fit to develop a goal-oriented sampling strategy. The DET is used to drive a Limit Surface search. The methodology that has been developed by the authors last year, performs a Limit Surface search in the aleatory space only. This report documents how this approach has been extended in order to consider the epistemic space interacting with the Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-EF-304-02: 4D Optimized Treatment Planning for Actively Scanned Proton Therapy Delivered to Moving Target Volume

Purpose: To develop a 4D treatment optimization approach for Pencil Beam Scanned (PBS) proton therapy that includes breathing variability. Method: PBS proton therapy delivers a pattern of proton pencil beams (PBs), distributed to cover the target volume and optimized such as to achieve a homogenous dose distribution across the target. In this work, this optimization step has been enhanced to include advanced 4D dose calculations of liver tumors based on motion extracted from either 4D-CT (representing a single and averaged respiratory cycle) or 4D-CT(MRI) (including breathing variability). The 4D dose calculation is performed per PB on deforming dose grid, and according to the timestamp of each PB, a displacement due to patient’s motion and a change in radiological depth.Three different treatment fields have been optimized in 3D on the end-exhale phase of a 4D-CT liver data set (3D-opt) and then in 4D using the motion extracted from either 4D-CT or 4D-CT(MRI) using deformable image registration. All plans were calculated directly on the PTV without the use of an ITV. The delivery characteristics of the PSI Gantry 2 have been assumed for all calculations. Results: Dose inhomogeneities (D5-D95) in the CTV for the 3D optimized plans recalculated under conditions of variable motion were increased by on average 19.8% compared to the static case. These differences could be reduced by 4D-CT based 4D optimization to 10.5% and by 4D-CT(MRI) based optimization to only 2.3% of the static value. Liver V25 increased by less than 1% using 4D optimization. Conclusion: 4D optimized PBS treatment plans taking into account breathing variability provide for significantly improved robustness against motion and motion variability than those based on 4D-CT alone, and may negate the need of motion specific target expansions. Swiss National Fund Grant (320030-1493942-1)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Convergence of sum-up rounding schemes for cloaking problems governed by the Helmholtz equation

In this work, we consider the problem of designing a cloak for waves described by the Helmholtz equation from an integer programming point of view. The problem can be modeled as a PDE-constrained optimization problem with integer-valued control inputs that are distributed in the computational domain. A first-discretize-then-optimize approach results in a large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear program that is in general intractable because of the large number of integer variables that arise from the discretization of the domain. Instead, we propose an efficient algorithm that is able to approximate the local infima of the underlying nonconvex infinite-dimensional problem arbitrarily close without the need to solve the discretized finite-dimensional integer programs to optimality. We optimize only the continuous relaxations of the approximations for local minima and then apply the sum-up rounding methodology to obtain integer-valued controls. If the solutions of the discretized continuous relaxations converge to a local minimizer of the continuous relaxation, then the resulting discrete-valued control sequence converges weakly \(^*\) in \(L^\infty\) to the same local minimizer. These approximation properties follow under suitable refinements of the involved discretization grids. Our results use familiar concepts arising from the analytical properties of the underlying PDE and complement previous results, derived from a topology optimization point of view.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian approaches for modeling stream water quality

This paper describes and compares some of the advantages and limitations of Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches to water quality modeling and introduces a mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian (or semi-Lagrangian) methodology that captures the strengths of both approaches. The semi-Lagrangian modeling approach is applied to advection-dominated rivers, and flexibly ensures unconditional stability for all time step durations and grid segmentations. The semi-Lagrangian modeling approach is demonstrated by applying it to estimate the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Sava River in Slovenia, focusing on aspects of the methodology and findings that would be of broad interest to managers of water quality in fluvial water bodies. Results of comparisons of the semi-Lagrangian model with the Eulerian-based QUAL2K model in steady and non-steady scenarios demonstrate that while both models are fully capable of producing satisfactory results when optimally configured, the semi-Lagrangian approach offers accuracy and stability without sensitivity to the interaction of time step size and computational grid segmentation scheme.

Sava River↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗

NASA NTRS2004

Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

Wang, Donghai↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗