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DOE OSTI2025

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

User Role Identification in Software Vulnerability Discussions over Social Networks

Understanding and early awareness of software vulnerabilities is vital for preventing and mitigating potential impacts from cybersecurity events. One step toward early characterization of software vulnerabilities may involve analyzing discussion and spread of information in online social networks. Prior work has used information from such discussions over multiple online forums to develop dynamic networks among users followed by analysis of structure, spread, and information evolution. In this work, we advance the state-of-the-art by focusing on data-driven learning of types, roles, and transition of roles exhibited by users over time. In social networks, users take on particular roles based on their actions and structure of the network. Identifying “meaningful” roles can help separate potential users of interest from the larger community, and identify patterns in a network. We will identify and compare roles found in online forums (e.g., Twitter) using techniques such as feature-based Non-negative Matrix Factorization coupled with topological and influence-based measures of centrality. Since users’ activities change over time, we also analyze role evolution in dynamic networks.

Jones, Rebecca D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Hypervelocity impacts and magnetization of small bodies in the Solar System

The observed magnetism of asteroids such as Gaspra and Ida (and other small bodies in the solar system including the Moon and meteorites) may have resulted from an impact-induced shock wave producing a thermodynamic state in which iron-nickel alloy, dispersed in a silicate matrix, is driven from the usual low-temperature, low-pressure, alpha, kaemacite, phase to the paramagnetic, epsilon (hcp), phase. The magnetization was acquired upon rarefaction and reentry into the ferromagnetic, alpha, structure. The degree of remagnetization depends on the strength of the ambient field, which may have been associated with a Solar-System-wide magnetic field. A transient field induced by the impact event itself may have resulted in a significant, or possibly, even a dominant contribution, as well. The scaling law of Housen et al. (Housen, K. R., R. M. Schmidt, and K. A. Holsapple 1991) for catastrophic asteroid impact disaggregation imposes a constraint on the degree to which small planetary bodies may be magnetized and yet survive fragmentation by the same event. Our modeling results show it is possible that Ida was magnetized when a large impact fractured a 125 +/- 22-km-radius protoasteroid to form the Koronis family. Similarly, we calculate that Gaspra could be a magnetized fragment of a 45 +/- 15 km-radius protoasteroid.

Chen, Guangqing↗

NASA NTRS2010

Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

Moore, T. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2014

A plasma source driven predator-prey like mechanism as a potential cause of spiraling intermittencies in linear plasma devices

Three-dimensional global drift fluid simulations are carried out to analyze coherent plasma structures appearing in the NAGDIS-II linear device (nagoya divertor plasma Simulator-II). The numerical simulations reproduce several features of the intermittent spiraling structures observed, for instance, statistical properties, rotation frequency, and the frequency of plasma expulsion. The detailed inspection of the three-dimensional plasma dynamics allows to identify the key mechanism behind the formation of these intermittent events. The resistive coupling between electron pressure and parallel electric field in the plasma source region gives rise to a quasilinear predator-prey like dynamics where the axisymmetric mode represents the prey and the spiraling structure with low azimuthal mode number represents the predator. This interpretation is confirmed by a reduced one-dimensional quasilinear model derived on the basis of the findings in the full three-dimensional simulations. The dominant dynamics reveals certain similarities to the classical Lotka-Volterra cycle.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interspecific oral rabies vaccine bait competition in the Southeast United States

Here, the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Rabies Management Program (NRMP) has coordinated the use of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) to control the spread of raccoon rabies virus variant west of the Appalachian Mountains since 1997. Working with state and local partners, the NRMP deploys ORV baits containing a rabies vaccine, primarily targeting raccoon populations (Procyon lotor). Bait competition between raccoons and non-target species may limit the effectiveness of ORV programs, but the extent of bait competition remains poorly quantified, particularly in the southeastern United States. We placed placebo ORV baits in bottomland hardwood (n = 637 baits) and upland pine (n = 681 baits) habitats in South Carolina, USA during August-December 2019 and used remote cameras to examine bait competition between raccoons and non-target species. The estimated proportion of bait consumed by raccoons was 18.8 ± 2.1% in bottomland hardwood and 11.6 ± 2.1% in upland pine habitats. Vertebrate competition appeared to have a minimal effect on raccoon uptake as estimated consumption did not exceed 5% for any species or 8% of bait uptake events cumulatively. We estimated that raccoons were the primary consumer of baits in bottomland hardwood, whereas invertebrates were the primary consumer in upland pine (26.7 ± 1.3% of baits). Our results indicate a need to closely consider the effects of invertebrates on bait consumption to minimize their potential impact on ORV bait uptake by target species. Uptake probabilities by raccoons were relatively low but not primarily driven by competition with vertebrates. As such, strategies to increase the specificity of raccoon uptake may be needed to enhance the effectiveness of ORV baiting programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Catalytic N 2 -to-NH 3 (or -N 2 H 4 ) Conversion by Well-Defined Molecular Coordination Complexes

Nitrogen fixation, the six-electron/six-proton reduction of N 2 , to give NH 3 , is one of the most challenging and important chemical transformations. Notwithstanding the barriers associated with this reaction, significant progress has been made in developing molecular complexes that reduce N 2 into its bioavailable form, NH 3 . This progress is driven by the dual aims of better understanding biological nitrogenases and improving upon industrial nitrogen fixation. In this review, we highlight both mechanistic understanding of nitrogen fixation that has been developed, as well as advances in yields, efficiencies, and rates that make molecular alternatives to nitrogen fixation increasingly appealing. We begin with a historical discussion of N 2 functionalization chemistry that traverses a timeline of events leading up to the discovery of the first bona fide molecular catalyst system and follow with a comprehensive overview of d-block compounds that have been targeted as catalysts up to and including 2019. Furthermore, we end with a summary of lessons learned from this significant research effort and last offer a discussion of key remaining challenges in the field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms of Projected Changes in Thunderstorm Downburst Environments Across the United States

Responses of downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) to global warming were investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) under a high‐emission scenario through the year 2100. DCAPE is projected to increase by 5%–12% on average in most areas, independently of wind shear. A diagnostic of downdraft buoyancy is introduced to understand the mechanisms of DCAPE responses. Much of the increase in mean DCAPE is temperature‐driven, with additional contributions from changes in relative humidity and downdraft origin heights. However, extreme values increase at much faster rates than can be explained by local warming. In winter, the latitude of significant DCAPE and CAPE shifts poleward by more than 5° due to larger changes in downburst environments within midlatitude cyclones. The projected increase in cold‐season extremes indicates an interaction between weather events and warming trends that increases the potential for downbursts and straight‐line winds in winter.

Williams, Ian N. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Causal Relationships of the Cross‐Scale Wave Coupling Through Information Theoretical Approach

On 2015 October 2, MMS spacecraft observed an electron micro-injection event near the southern hemispheric high-altitude cusp, coinciding with intense wave activity across several frequency bands. Here, we investigated the MMS magnetic field and plasma during this event to explore cross-scale coupling among the wave modes. Employing the Hilbert-Huang transform, we perform an empirical mode decomposition to extract frequencies and amplitudes of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In this analysis, we establish both linear and nonlinear relationships and examine the information transfer between the IMFs. Notably, the transfer entropy suggests that high frequency ion cyclotron waves may be driven by the mirror mode structures. Our case study effectively demonstrates the utility of the information theory based tools for studying cross-scale wave coupling phenomena.

Rivera, Elmer C. [Andrews University, Berrien Spri↗

DOE OSTI2015

A dynamic magnetic tension force as the cause of failed solar eruptions

Coronal mass ejections are solar eruptions driven by a sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's corona. In many cases, this magnetic energy is stored in long-lived, arched structures called magnetic flux ropes. When a flux rope destabilizes, it can either erupt and produce a coronal mass ejection or fail and collapse back towards the Sun. The prevailing belief is that the outcome of a given event is determined by a magnetohydrodynamic force imbalance called the torus instability. This belief is challenged, however, by observations indicating that torus-unstable flux ropes sometimes fail to erupt. This contradiction has not yet been resolved because of a lack of coronal magnetic field measurements and the limitations of idealized numerical modelling. In this paper, we report the results of a laboratory experiment that reveal a previously unknown eruption criterion below which torus-unstable flux ropes fail to erupt. We find that such 'failed torus' events occur when the guide magnetic field (that is, the ambient field that runs toroidally along the flux rope) is strong enough to prevent the flux rope from kinking. Under these conditions, the guide field interacts with electric currents in the flux rope to produce a dynamic toroidal field tension force that halts the eruption. Lastly, this magnetic tension force is missing from existing eruption models, which is why such models cannot explain or predict failed torus events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

What controls the interannual variation of Hadley cell extent in the Northern Hemisphere: physical mechanism and empirical model for edge variation

Abstract The Hadley circulation is the most prominent atmospheric meridional circulation, reducing the radiatively driven equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the Hadley cell extent varies by several degrees from year to year, the detailed dynamical mechanisms behind such variations have not been well elucidated. During the expanded phase of the Hadley cell, many regions on the periphery of the subtropics experience unfavorable climatic conditions. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine the physical chain of events responsible for the interannual variation of the Hadley cell edge (HCE) latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This variation is mainly caused by changing eddy activity and wave breaking from both stationary and transient waves. In particular, we show that transient waves cause the HCE to shift poleward by increasing the eddy momentum flux divergence (EMFD) and reducing the baroclinicity over 20°–40°N, shifting the region of peak baroclinicity poleward. El Niño/La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for a significant portion (60%) of the interannual fluctuation of the HCE latitude. Through the poleward displacement of eddy activity, La Niña and a positive AO state are associated with the poleward shift of the HCE. The analysis of 28 CMIP5 models reveals statistical relationships between EMFD, vertical shear, and HCE latitude similar to those observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Radial dependence of solar energetic particles derived from the 15 March 2013 solar energetic particle event and global MHD simulation

We study an unusual solar energetic particle (SEP) event that was associated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) on March 15, 2013. Enhancements of the SEP fluxes were first detected by the ACE spacecraft at 14:00 UT, ∼7 hours after the onset of the CME (07:00 UT), and the SEP’s peak intensities were recorded ∼36 hours after the onset of the CME. Our recent study showed that the CME-driven shock Mach number, based on a global three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, is well correlated with the time-intensity of 10-30 MeV and 30-80 MeV protons. Here we focus on the radial dependence (r{sup −α}) of {sup 4}He (3.43-41.2 MeV/n) and O (7.30-89.8 MeV/n) energetic particles from ACE/SIS. It is found that the scaling factor (α) ranges between 2 and 4 for most of the energy channels. We also found that the correlation coefficients tend to increase with SEP energies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transient Optimization of the Cryogenic Moderator System Controller at the Spallation Neutron Source for Improved Performance

The high-energy neutron beam generated at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is moderated to use cold (slow) neutrons for scientific discoveries. The Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) removes heat from the neutron beam using cryogenic hydrogen (H 2 ) moderators connected via heat exchangers to a helium (He) refrigeration loop that dissipates heat using a compressor-brake system. However, the CMS is affected by sporadic losses in beam power, referred to as "beam trips," as these events generate significant disturbances in cooling requirements. To accommodate the heat load transients during beam trips, the CMS uses a decentralized control strategy consisting of four flow valves and one electric heater adjusted by independent proportional-integral (PI) controllers. During the CMS’s initial commissioning, the PI gains were calibrated based only on tracking performance, overlooking their effectiveness in disturbance rejection. A data-driven, control-oriented closed-loop model was developed to recalibrate the PI gains and minimize the transient disturbances caused by beam trips. The model consists of three main components: (1) a physics-based model of the He refrigeration loop, (2) a machine-learning model of the cryogenic H 2 cooling trains, and (3) the control logic used for feedback set-point tracking. Experimental results showed that the recalibrated gains obtained in this study improved the CMS’s transient response during beam trips.

Maldonado Puente, Bryan↗

DOE OSTI2015

A dynamic magnetic tension force as the cause of failed solar eruptions

Coronal mass ejections are solar eruptions driven by a sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun’s corona. In many cases, this magnetic energy is stored in long-lived, arched structures called magnetic flux ropes. When a flux rope destabilizes, it can either erupt and produce a coronal mass ejection or fail and collapse back towards the Sun. The prevailing belief is that the outcome of a given event is determined by a magnetohydrodynamic force imbalance called the torus instability. This belief is challenged, however, by observations indicating that torus-unstable flux ropes sometimes fail to erupt. This contradiction has not yet been resolved because of a lack of coronal magnetic field measurements and the limitations of idealized numerical modelling. Here we report the results of a laboratory experiment that reveal a previously unknown eruption criterion below which torus-unstable flux ropes fail to erupt. We find that such ‘failed torus’ events occur when the guide magnetic field (that is, the ambient field that runs toroidally along the flux rope) is strong enough to prevent the flux rope from kinking. Under these conditions, the guide field interacts with electric currents in the flux rope to produce a dynamic toroidal field tension force that halts the eruption. This magnetic tension force is missing from existing eruption models, which is why such models cannot explain or predict failed torus events.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have been both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size and computation time. An advanced method of combing results from grid-based methods with SPH through a data-driven model is proposed. This method could allow for more accurate simulation of particle movement near rigid bodies even with larger SPH particle sizes. If successful, the data-driven model would eliminate the need for a SPH turbulence model and increase the simulation domain size. Continued research beyond the scope of this project will be needed in order to determine the viability of a data-driven model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

On the Link between the Release of Solar Energetic Particles Measured at Widespread Heliolongitudes and the Properties of the Associated Coronal Shocks

Under the paradigm that the main agents in the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are shocks initially driven by coronal mass ejections, we analyze whether the properties of the shocks in the corona inferred from combining extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (WL) observations from multiple vantage points together with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the corona can be used to determine the release of SEPs into different regions of the heliosphere and hence determine the longitudinal extent of the SEP events. We analyze the SEP events observed on 2011 November 3, 2013 April 11, and 2014 February 25 over a wide range of heliolongitudes. MHD simulations provide the characteristics of the background medium where shocks propagate, in particular the Alfvén and sound speed profiles that allow us to determine both the extent of the EUV waves in the low corona and the fast magnetosonic Mach number ( M {sub FM}) of the shocks. The extent of the EUV waves in the low corona is controlled by this background medium and does not coincide with the extent of the SEP events in the heliosphere. Within the uncertainties of (i) the extent and speed of the shock inferred from EUV and WL images and (ii) the assumptions made in the MHD models, we follow the evolution of M {sub FM} at the region of the shock magnetically connected to each spacecraft. The estimated release times of the first SEPs measured by each spacecraft does not coincide with the time when the M {sub FM} at this region exceeds a given threshold.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗