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High-dimensional multivariate autoregressive model estimation of human electrophysiological data using fMRI priors

Multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model estimation enables assessment of causal interactions in brain networks. However, accurately estimating MVAR models for high-dimensional electrophysiological recordings is challenging due to the extensive data requirements. Hence, the applicability of MVAR models for study of brain behavior over hundreds of recording sites has been very limited. Prior work has focused on different strategies for selecting a subset of important MVAR coefficients in the model to reduce the data requirements of conventional least-squares estimation algorithms. Here we propose incorporating prior information, such as resting state functional connectivity derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging, into MVAR model estimation using a weighted group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization strategy. The proposed approach is shown to reduce data requirements by a factor of two relative to the recently proposed group LASSO method of Endemann et al (Neuroimage 254:119057, 2022) while resulting in models that are both more parsimonious and more accurate. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated using simulation studies of physiologically realistic MVAR models derived from intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) data. The robustness of the approach to deviations between the conditions under which the prior information and iEEG data is obtained is illustrated using models from data collected in different sleep stages. This approach allows accurate effective connectivity analyses over short time scales, facilitating investigations of causal interactions in the brain underlying perception and cognition during rapid transitions in behavioral state.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Heat pulse testing at monitoring wells to estimate subsurface fluid velocities in geological CO 2 storage

Monitoring the injected CO 2 during geological CO 2 storage (GCS) is essential to assure containment and identify CO 2 leakage. Here in this work, a new approach is introduced to estimate the evolution of the downhole fluid velocity at a monitoring well and identify CO 2 arrival time using in-well heat pulse/tracer test. The proposed technique involves using a downhole heater to generate a series of heat pulses and measuring their corresponding temperature response. The surface temperature of the downhole heater is controlled by the supplied electrical power and the heat loss by convection to the surroundings. Convective heat transfer is well described using Newton's law of cooling in which the temperature difference between the heater and the surrounding fluids drives the heat transfer, for which the convection heat transfer coefficient (h) controls the magnitude of heat loss. Among various factors that control h, it depends on the type of the flowing fluid and its velocity. Through analyzing the measured temperature at different heat pulses, the changes in h - due to mobilization of the in-situ brine or CO 2 arrival - can be estimated. Consequently, the velocity of the flowing fluid across the heater can be obtained. Since heat transfer by convection is sensitive to the type of the surrounding fluid, intrusion of CO 2 can be detected from the relatively higher surface temperature obtained at CO 2 arrival. Churchill and Bernstein (1977)'s correlation is adopted to estimate the change of fluid velocity in terms of the change in h. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed technique, the results are applied and validated against those of COMSOL Multiphysics simulation tool for single-phase brine (before CO 2 arrival) and single-phase CO 2 (after CO 2 arrival). The observed temperature heating is sensitive to the flowing fluid velocity and fluid type. The temperature signal observed at CO 2 arrival is large and easily detectable using temperature monitoring tool which provides reliable indication for tracking CO 2 arrival at monitoring wells compared with passive temperature monitoring. The results obtained using the proposed technique agree very well with the numerical results obtained from the simulation tool with a maximum estimation error of 7 percent.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Comparison of total emitted solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and top-of-canopy (TOC) SIF in estimating photosynthesis

We report many studies have shown that solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) has a good potential to predict gross primary production (GPP) of vegetation. What we measured by remote sensing or near-surface platforms is top-of-canopy (TOC) SIF (SIF toc ), which is not necessarily equal or proportional to total emitted SIF (SIF tot ) from the entire canopy due to the (re)absorption and scattering effects. However, photosynthesis, the process that plants use to fix carbon from the atmosphere, occurs at the entire vertical canopy. Here, by using the recollision theory, we calculated SIF tot at 760 nm from the measured SIF toc , hyperspectral reflectance (R), canopy interception (i) and leaf albedo (ω l ). Among them, both SIF toc and R can be obtained from concurrent TOC spectral measurements; i and ω l in the near-infrared region can be estimated from the open access datasets with a good accuracy. Our result confirms that the measured SIF toc only accounts for a small fraction of SIF tot : the above-the-canopy sensor can only “see” on average 22.9% of SIF tot at Harvard Forest. SIF tot has the following advantages over SIF toc in estimating GPP: (1) SIF tot improves the diurnal estimate of canopy GPP, especially capable to capture the midday depression of photosynthesis which may cause the large discrepancies between SIF toc and GPP on a diurnal basis, (2) SIF tot produces a stronger correlation with GPP from plants with complex canopy structure or under sky conditions with more diffuse irradiance, and (3) the SIF tot -GPP relationship shows a stronger resilience to environmental stresses. The fluorescence escape ratio (f esc ), the ratio between SIF toc multiplied by π and SIF tot , is mostly determined by the sun-canopy-sensor geometry and leaf inclination distribution. The effect of LAI and the leaf chlorophyll concentration on f esc is marginal at the 760 nm wavelength. Our results suggest that converting SIF toc into SIF tot provides a better tool to understand and estimate GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating snow cover from high-resolution satellite imagery by thresholding blue wavelengths

We report the extent and duration of snow cover, a critical component of the hydrologic cycle and the global climate system, is expected to shift dramatically under climate change. Therefore, developing high-resolution assessments of snow cover change is crucial for estimating the impact of changing snow cover on watershed and ecosystems processes in cold regions. Remote sensing tools provide a powerful method for mapping snow-covered area (SCA) across a landscape. The most common method for estimating SCA utilizes the normalized difference snow index (NDSI), which relies on spectral measurements in the shortwave-infrared wavelengths (SWIR). NDSI can effectively estimate catchment- to regional-scale SCA, but it cannot be used to assess fine-scale SCA because of current limitations on the spatial resolution of satellite-derived SWIR measurements. Here, we map SCA using a threshold of blue wavelengths and high-resolution satellite imagery. The thresholding method, which we call the Blue Snow Threshold algorithm (BST), has previously been used with digital camera imagery. We refine and automate the algorithm for use with cloud-free high-resolution satellite imagery and find that the BST can be used to assess fine-scale SCA. For validation, we compared BST-derived estimates of SCA to a) airborne lidar surveys, b) Landsat fractional SCA, and c) snow disappearance dates from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. When compared to airborne lidar surveys of SCA, the BST predicted SCA had a range of F-scores between 0.81 and 0.94 in four study areas in California and Colorado. We also found general agreement between SCA and snow disappearance at multiple SNOTEL sites across the western United States. Given the relatively recent availability of high-resolution satellite imagery with spectral measurements in the visible wavelengths but lacking in SWIR, the BST offers a reliable and easy-to-apply tool for examining fine-scale snow-related processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology for Estimating Solar Potential on Multiple Building Rooftops for Photovoltaic Systems

In this paper, a methodology for estimating solar potential on multiple building rooftops is presented. The objective of this methodology is to estimate the daily or monthly solar radiation potential on individual buildings in a city/region using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and a geographic information system (GIS) approach. Conceptually, the methodology is based on the upward-looking hemispherical viewshed algorithm, but applied using an area-based modeling approach. The methodology considers input parameters, such as surface orientation, shadowing effect, elevation, and atmospheric conditions, that influence solar intensity on the earth s surface. The methodology has been implemented for some 212,000 buildings in Knox County, Tennessee, USA. Based on the results obtained, the methodology seems to be adequate for estimating solar radiation on multiple building rooftops. The use of LiDAR data improves the radiation potential estimates in terms of the model predictive error and the spatial pattern of the model outputs. This methodology could help cities/regions interested in sustainable projects to quickly identify buildings with higher potentials for roof-mounted photovoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimation of transport parameters of phenolic compounds and inorganic contaminants through composite landfill liners using one-dimensional mass transport model

Highlights: > We conduct 1D advection-dispersion modeling to estimate transport parameters. > We examine fourteen phenolic compounds and three inorganic contaminants. > 2-MP, 2,4-DCP, 2,6-DCP, 2,4,5-TCP, 2,3,4,6-TeCP have the highest coefficients. > Dispersion coefficients of Cu are determined to be higher than Zn and Fe. > Transport of phenolics can be prevented by zeolite and bentonite in landfill liners. - Abstract: One-dimensional (1D) advection-dispersion transport modeling was conducted as a conceptual approach for the estimation of the transport parameters of fourteen different phenolic compounds (phenol, 2-CP, 2-MP, 3-MP, 4-MP, 2-NP, 4-NP, 2,4-DNP, 2,4-DCP, 2,6-DCP, 2,4,5-TCP, 2,4,6-TCP, 2,3,4,6-TeCP, PCP) and three different inorganic contaminants (Cu, Zn, Fe) migrating downward through the several liner systems. Four identical pilot-scale landfill reactors (0.25 m{sup 3}) with different composite liners (R1: 0.10 + 0.10 m of compacted clay liner (CCL), L{sub e} = 0.20 m, k{sub e} = 1 x 10{sup -8} m/s, R2: 0.002-m-thick damaged high-density polyethylene (HDPE) geomembrane overlying 0.10 + 0.10 m of CCL, L{sub e} = 0.20 m, k{sub e} = 1 x 10{sup -8} m/s, R3: 0.002-m-thick damaged HDPE geomembrane overlying a 0.02-m-thick bentonite layer encapsulated between 0.10 + 0.10 m CCL, L{sub e} = 0.22 m, k{sub e} = 1 x 10{sup -8} m/s, R4: 0.002-m-thick damaged HDPE geomembrane overlying a 0.02-m-thick zeolite layer encapsulated between 0.10 + 0.10 m CCL, L{sub e} = 0.22 m, k{sub e} = 4.24 x 10{sup -7} m/s) were simultaneously run for a period of about 540 days to investigate the nature of diffusive and advective transport of the selected organic and inorganic contaminants. The results of 1D transport model showed that the highest molecular diffusion coefficients, ranging from 4.77 x 10{sup -10} to 10.67 x 10{sup -10} m{sup 2}/s, were estimated for phenol (R4), 2-MP (R1), 2,4-DNP (R2), 2,4-DCP (R1), 2,6-DCP (R2), 2,4,5-TCP (R2) and 2,3,4,6-TeCP (R1). For all reactors, dispersion coefficients of Cu, ranging from 3.47 x 10{sup -6} m{sup 2}/s to 5.37 x 10{sup -2} m{sup 2}/s, was determined to be higher than others obtained for Zn and Fe. Average molecular diffusion coefficients of phenolic compounds were estimated to be about 5.64 x 10{sup -10} m{sup 2}/s, 5.37 x 10{sup -10} m{sup 2}/s, 2.69 x 10{sup -10} m{sup 2}/s and 3.29 x 10{sup -10} m{sup 2}/s for R1, R2, R3 and R4 systems, respectively. The findings of this study clearly indicated that about 35-50% of transport of phenolic compounds to the groundwater is believed to be prevented with the use of zeolite and bentonite materials in landfill liner systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The estimation of Poisson’s ratio by time-averaging and Cornu’s method for isotropic beams

Prior research suggests that direct static (e.g., uniaxial testing) and dynamic (e.g., ultrasonic wave propagation analysis) measurements differ in the estimation of Poisson’s ratio because anisotropies and heterogeneities in the sample material affect the two types of tests differently. Even assuming isotropic and homogeneous material properties, prior research further suggests that discrepancies between static/dynamic test results will exist because the error of the diagnostic techniques for the measurand are inherently different. Finally, thermodynamic effects are not present in static tests but can significantly affect dynamic test results. Given the potential for all these variables to produce discrepancies, it would be helpful to have the measurement of Poisson’s ratio obtainable from the same theory and experimental measurements by either static or dynamic testing methods. Our finite element calculations show that by combining time-averaged scanning digital holography with Cornu’s method, it is theoretically possible to estimate the effective Poisson’s ratio from the anticlastic contours at the antinode of the first out-of-plane bending mode shape. This is true regardless of frequency and therefore applicable for both static and dynamic measurements. Our results show that the estimate of Poisson’s ratio by Cornu’s method using data from simulations of mode shapes approaches the true value of Poisson’s ratio. Additionally, our research suggests that beam geometry and boundary conditions are fundamental factors limiting the convergence of the estimate of Poisson’s ratio to the true value of Poisson’s ratio regardless of performing a static or dynamic test.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Improving Precipitation Estimation Using Convolutional Neural Network

Precipitation process is generally considered to be poorly represented in numerical weather/climate models. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods, which relate precipitation with model resolved dynamics, often provide more accurate precipitation estimates compared to model's raw precipitation products. Herein we introduce the convolutional neural network model to foster this aspect of SD for daily precipitation prediction. Specifically, we restrict the predictors to the variables that are directly resolved by discretizing the atmospheric dynamics equations. In this sense, our model works as an alternative to the existing precipitation-related parameterization schemes for numerical precipitation estimation. We train the model to learn precipitation-related dynamical features from the surrounding dynamical fields by optimizing a hierarchical set of spatial convolution kernels. We test the model at 14 geogrid points across the contiguous United States. Results show that provided with enough data, precipitation estimates from the convolutional neural network model outperform the reanalysis precipitation products, as well as SD products using linear regression, nearest neighbor, random forest, or fully connected deep neural network. Evaluation for the test set suggests that the improvements can be seamlessly transferred to numerical weather modeling for improving precipitation prediction. Based on the default network, we examine the impact of the network architectures on model performance. Also, we offer simple visualization and analyzing approaches to interpret the models and their results. Our study contributes to the following two aspects: First, we offer a novel approach to enhance numerical precipitation estimation; second, the proposed model provides important implications for improving precipitation-related parameterization schemes using a data-driven approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Satellite-Based Estimate of Convective Vertical Velocity and Convective Mass Flux: Global Survey and Comparison with Radar Wind Profiler Observations

Convective vertical velocity (w c ) and convective mass flux (M c ) lie at the heart of GCM cumulus parameterizations, but few observations of these critical parameters are available. In this paper, we develop and evaluate a novel, satellite-based method for estimating profiles of w c and M c . Here, comparisons with collocated ground-based radar wind profiler (RWP) observations show that satellite estimated median w c is slightly greater than the RWP estimates, but they show solid agreement when compared at the 95th percentiles (intense updrafts). RWP-derived and satellite estimated M c are broadly comparable in the lower and middle troposphere, with some differences in the upper troposphere due to differences in convective core sampling. A k-means cluster analysis of multiple years of w c data shows that convective characteristics are distinctly different among extratropical convection, tropical land convection, and tropical oceanic convection. Tropical land convection is significantly more intense and more variable than the oceanic counterpart.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remotely Sensed Carbonyl Sulfide Constrains Model Estimates of Amazon Primary Productivity

We report understanding the magnitude of tropical gross primary production (GPP) is critical for carbon cycle modeling and climate projections, but this quantity is poorly constrained at regional scales. Biospheric uptake of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides a promising approach to estimating regional GPP. Here, we simulate OCS concentrations driven by surface flux scenarios encompassing a wide range of GPP estimates for the Amazon basin. We compare the model output to satellite retrievals and find a regional GPP estimate of 2375 ± 914 g(C) m –2 yr –1 , consistent with previous estimates, including the TRENDY model ensemble range of 1431–3812 g(C) m –2 yr –1 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating Interplanetary Magnetic Field Conditions at Mercury's Orbit From MESSENGER Magnetosheath Observations Using a Feedforward Neural Network

Abstract Mercury's small magnetosphere is embedded in the dynamic and intense solar wind environment characteristic of the inner heliosphere. Both the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly influence the solar wind‐magnetospheric interaction at Mercury, driving phenomena such as magnetic reconnection. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided in‐situ magnetic field measurements of the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the magnetosphere along each orbit. However, it is a challenge to directly assess the IMF's impact on Mercury's plasma environment due to the temporal separation between observations within the solar wind and the magnetosphere, especially in the absence of an upstream monitor. Here, we present a feedforward neural network (FNN) trained on a subset of magnetosheath observations to estimate the strength and orientation of the IMF upstream of the bow shock. Utilizing magnetosheath magnetic field, cylindrical spatial coordinates, and heliocentric distance measurements, the FNN predicts upstream IMF conditions with an score of 0.70 and mean averaged error of 5.3 nT, thereby greatly decreasing the temporal separation between IMF estimates and magnetospheric measurements throughout the MESSENGER mission. This approach yields IMF estimates for all magnetosheath data measured by MESSENGER, providing a useful tool for future investigations of the IMF impact on Mercury's magnetosphere. This method will be integrable with the dual‐spacecraft BepiColombo magnetosheath measurements, providing useful estimates of upstream IMF conditions particularly during the extended periods in which neither spacecraft sample the solar wind. Our results demonstrate the utility of machine learning techniques on advancing space science research.

Bowers, Charles F.↗

Biological carbon pump estimate based on multidecadal hydrographic data

The transfer of photosynthetically produced organic carbon from surface to mesopelagic waters draws carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, current observation-based estimates disagree on the strength of this biological carbon pump (BCP). Earth system models (ESMs) also exhibit a large spread of BCP estimates, indicating limited representations of the known carbon export pathways. Here we use several decades of hydrographic observations to produce a top-down estimate of the strength of the BCP with an inverse biogeochemical model that implicitly accounts for all known export pathways. Our estimate of total organic carbon (TOC) export at 73.4 m (model euphotic zone depth) is 15.00 ± 1.12 Pg C year –1 , with only two-thirds reaching 100 m depth owing to rapid remineralization of organic matter in the upper water column. Partitioned by sequestration time below the euphotic zone, τ, the globally integrated organic carbon production rate with τ > 3 months is 11.09 ± 1.02 Pg C year –1 , dropping to 8.25 ± 0.30 Pg C year –1 for τ > 1 year, with 81% contributed by the non-advective-diffusive vertical flux owing to sinking particles and vertically migrating zooplankton. Nevertheless, export of organic carbon by mixing and other fluid transport of dissolved matter and suspended particles remains regionally important for meeting the respiratory carbon demand. Here, the temperature dependence of the sequestration efficiency inferred from our inversion suggests that future global warming may intensify the recycling of organic matter in the upper ocean, potentially weakening the BCP.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗