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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Estimating Cohort Survival through Tributaries for Salmonid Populations with Variable Ages at Migration

Abstract Survival of juvenile anadromous Pacific salmonids from their earliest age of seaward movement (“out-migration”) through the tributaries that connect their rearing grounds to larger-order rivers (“cohort survival”) is an important yet often unmonitored factor in the complex life history of these species. Populations with variable age at out-migration (e.g., steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss) or multiple juvenile rearing strategies (e.g., Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha) raise particular challenges in survival monitoring. A multiple-state release–recapture model is presented to estimate cohort survival for salmonid species with variable age at out-migration and demonstrated in two case studies. Annual releases of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags from the same brood year (cohort) and their detections by instream PIT-tag detection arrays in tributaries and at hydroelectric dams are used to estimate survival through tributaries and the age composition of juvenile migrants reaching downstream sites. The 2010 cohort of Chinook Salmon from the Chiwawa River in Washington State had estimated survival of 0.59 to the middle Wenatchee River array in Tumwater Dam Reservoir (river distance of 30 km) and 0.12 to McNary Dam (364 km) on the Columbia River. The age composition shifted from 60.1% subyearlings at the Wenatchee River array to 100% yearlings at McNary Dam, reflecting the use of the Wenatchee River as a nonnatal rearing area, whereas McNary Dam is in the migratory corridor. The 2010 cohort of steelhead from the Twisp River in Washington State had estimated survival from the yearling stage of 0.30 to Rocky Reach Dam (146 km from the Twisp River mouth) on the Columbia River and 0.17 to McNary Dam (439 km). The low survival to the Columbia River resulted from both mortality and adoption of a resident life history and reflects the diverse population structure in the Twisp River. Received February 4, 2015; accepted June 11, 2015

Buchanan, Rebecca A.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A novel approach to estimate emissions from large transportation networks: Hierarchical clustering-based link-driving-schedules for EPA-MOVES using dynamic time warping measures

We present that EPA-MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) is often integrated with traffic simulators to assess emission levels of large-scale urban networks with signalized intersections. High variations in speed profiles exist in the context of congested urban networks with signalized intersections. The traditional average-speed-based emission estimation technique with EPA-MOVES provides faster execution while underestimates the emissions in most cases because of ignoring the speed variation at congested networks with signalized intersections. In contrast, the atomic second-by-second speed profile (i.e., the trajectory of each vehicle)-based technique provides accurate emissions at the cost of excessive computational power and time. We addressed this issue by developing a novel method to determine the link-driving-schedules (LDSs) for the EPA-MOVES tool. Our research developed a hierarchical clustering technique with dynamic time warping similarity measures (HC-DTW) to find the LDS for EPA-MOVES that is capable of producing emission estimates better than the average-speed-based technique with execution time faster than the atomic speed profile approach. We applied the HC-DTW on a sample data from a signalized corridor and found that HC-DTW can significantly reduce computational time without compromising the accuracy. The developed technique in this research can substantially contribute to the EPA-MOVES-based emission estimation process for large-scale urban transportation network by reducing the computational time with reasonably accurate estimates. This method is highly appropriate for transportation networks with higher variation in speed such as signalized intersections. Lastly, experimental results show error difference ranging from 2% to 8% for most pollutants except PM 10 .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating internal moisture generation rates in recently constructed, occupied homes in the southeastern United States

Internal moisture generation (IMG), or moisture generated by building occupants via activities such as respiration, cooking, bathing, and cleaning, is a critical input required for design, analysis, and simulation of building enclosure and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Based on previously published values, ASHRAE Standard 160-2021 provides guidance for estimating IMG rates for moisture control design analysis, which is based on occupied home datasets collected in the 1980s and 1990s. Residential energy use simulation software also utilizes estimates for IMG for energy rating, energy analysis, and code compliance calculations, as specified in ANSI/RESNET/ICC Standard 301. Data quantifying IMG rates in newer homes is useful in determining the continued relevance of current design and simulation guidance, and whether the guidance represents conditions found in new housing stock. ASHRAE Research Project 1844, conducted by the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), a research institute of the University of Central Florida, estimated IMG rates in newer occupied homes built since 2013 in the southeastern US using a moisture balance model approach. Furthermore, the project obtained occupied home data in cooperation with a US Department of Energy Building America research project to characterize indoor air quality (IAQ) in newer US homes, along with presence, functionality, and occupant use of control measures. Full-scale laboratory homes operating with known IMG rates were used to validate a moisture balance model and quantify the accuracy of estimates obtained when the model is applied to data from occupied homes with unknown IMG rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

ESTIMATING PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS OF QUASARS VIA THE k-NEAREST NEIGHBOR APPROACH BASED ON LARGE SURVEY DATABASES

We apply one of the lazy learning methods, the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithm, to estimate the photometric redshifts of quasars based on various data sets from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS), and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; the SDSS sample, the SDSS-UKIDSS sample, the SDSS-WISE sample, and the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample). The influence of the k value and different input patterns on the performance of kNN is discussed. kNN performs best when k is different with a special input pattern for a special data set. The best result belongs to the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample. The experimental results generally show that the more information from more bands, the better performance of photometric redshift estimation with kNN. The results also demonstrate that kNN using multiband data can effectively solve the catastrophic failure of photometric redshift estimation, which is met by many machine learning methods. Compared with the performance of various other methods of estimating the photometric redshifts of quasars, kNN based on KD-Tree shows superiority, exhibiting the best accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

ON THE LINEAR TERM CORRECTION FOR NEEDLET/WAVELET NON-GAUSSIANITY ESTIMATORS

We derive the linear correction term for needlet and wavelet estimators of the bispectrum and the nonlinearity parameter f{sub NL} on cosmic microwave background radiation data. We show that on masked WMAP-like data with anisotropic noise, the error bars improve by 10%-20% and almost reach the optimal error bars obtained with the bispectrum estimator also known as 'KSW'. In the limit of full-sky and isotropic noise, this term vanishes. We apply needlet and wavelet estimators to the WMAP 7-year data and obtain our best estimate f{sub NL} = 37.5 {+-} 21.8 (68% CL).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

BROAD-LINE REGION PHYSICAL CONDITIONS IN EXTREME POPULATION A QUASARS: A METHOD TO ESTIMATE CENTRAL BLACK HOLE MASS AT HIGH REDSHIFT

We describe a method for estimating physical conditions in the broad-line region (BLR) for a significant subsample of Seyfert 1 nuclei and quasars. Several diagnostic ratios based on intermediate (Al III {lambda}1860, Si III] {lambda}1892) and high (C IV {lambda}1549, Si IV {lambda}1397) ionization lines in the UV spectra of quasars are used to constrain density, ionization, and metallicity of the emitting gas. We apply the method to two extreme Population A quasars-the prototypical NLSy1 I Zw 1 and higher z source SDSS J120144.36+011611.6. Under assumptions of spherical symmetry and pure photoionization we infer BLR physical conditions: low ionization (ionization parameter <10{sup -2}), high density (10{sup 12}-10{sup 13} cm{sup -3}), and significant metal enrichment. Ionization parameter and density can be derived independently for each source with an uncertainty that is less than {+-}0.3 dex. We use the product of density and ionization parameter to estimate the BLR radius and derive an estimation of the virial black hole mass (M{sub BH}). Estimates of M{sub BH} based on the 'photoionization' analysis described in this paper are probably more accurate than those derived from the mass-luminosity correlations widely employed to compute black hole masses for high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

OPTIMAL CORRELATION ESTIMATORS FOR QUANTIZED SIGNALS

Using a maximum-likelihood criterion, we derive optimal correlation strategies for signals with and without digitization. We assume that the signals are drawn from zero-mean Gaussian distributions, as is expected in radio-astronomical applications, and we present correlation estimators both with and without a priori knowledge of the signal variances. We demonstrate that traditional estimators of correlation, which rely on averaging products, exhibit large and paradoxical noise when the correlation is strong. However, we also show that these estimators are fully optimal in the limit of vanishing correlation. We calculate the bias and noise in each of these estimators and discuss their suitability for implementation in modern digital correlators.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

USING COLORS TO IMPROVE PHOTOMETRIC METALLICITY ESTIMATES FOR GALAXIES

There is a well known correlation between the mass and metallicity of star-forming galaxies. Because mass is correlated with luminosity, this relation is often exploited, when spectroscopy is not available, to estimate galaxy metallicities based on single band photometry. However, we show that galaxy color is typically more effective than luminosity as a predictor of metallicity. This is a consequence of the correlation between color and the galaxy mass-to-light ratio and the recently discovered correlation between star formation rate (SFR) and residuals from the mass-metallicity relation. Using Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopy of ∼180, 000 nearby galaxies, we derive 'LZC relations', empirical relations between metallicity (in seven common strong line diagnostics), luminosity, and color (in 10 filter pairs and four methods of photometry). We show that these relations allow photometric metallicity estimates, based on luminosity and a single optical color, that are ∼50% more precise than those made based on luminosity alone; galaxy metallicity can be estimated to within ∼0.05-0.1 dex of the spectroscopically derived value depending on the diagnostic used. Including color information in photometric metallicity estimates also reduces systematic biases for populations skewed toward high or low SFR environments, as we illustrate using the host galaxy of the supernova SN 2010ay. This new tool will lend more statistical power to studies of galaxy populations, such as supernova and gamma-ray burst host environments, in ongoing and future wide-field imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

LIKELIHOOD OF THE POWER SPECTRUM IN COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION

The likelihood function is a crucial element of parameter estimation. In analyses of galaxy overdensities and weak lensing shear, one often approximates the likelihood of the power spectrum with a Gaussian distribution. The posterior probability derived from such a likelihood deviates considerably from the exact posterior on the largest scales probed by any survey, where the central limit theorem does not apply. We show that various forms of Gaussian likelihoods can have a significant impact on the estimation of the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter f{sub NL} from the galaxy angular power spectrum. The Gaussian plus log-normal likelihood, which has been applied successfully in analyses of the cosmic microwave background, outperforms the Gaussian likelihoods. Nevertheless, even if the exact likelihood of the power spectrum is used, the estimated parameters may be still biased. As such, the likelihoods and estimators need to be thoroughly examined for potential systematic errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Estimating stellar radial velocity variability from Kepler and GALEX: Implications for the radial velocity confirmation of exoplanets

We cross match the GALEX and Kepler surveys to create a unique dataset with both ultraviolet (UV) measurements and highly precise photometric variability measurements in the visible light spectrum. As stellar activity is driven by magnetic field modulations, we have used UV emission from the magnetically heated gas in the stellar atmosphere to serve as our proxy for the more well-known stellar activity indicator, R' {sub HK}. The R' {sub HK} approximations were in turn used to estimate the level of astrophysical noise expected in radial velocity (RV) measurements and these were then searched for correlations with photometric variability. We find significant scatter in our attempts to estimate RV noise for magnetically active stars, which we attribute to variations in the phase and strength of the stellar magnetic cycle that drives the activity of these targets. However, for stars we deem to be magnetically quiet, we do find a clear correlation between photometric variability and estimated levels of RV noise (with variability up to ∼10 m s{sup –1}). We conclude that for these quiet stars, we can use photometric measurements as a proxy to estimate the RV noise expected. As a result, the procedure outlined in this paper may help select targets best-suited for RV follow-up necessary for planet confirmation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Imaging redshift estimates for Fermi BL Lac objects

We have obtained WIYN and SOAR i' images of BL Lacertae objects and used these to detect or constrain the flux of the host galaxy. Under common standard candle assumptions, these data provide estimates of, or lower bounds on, the redshift. Our targets are a set of flat-spectrum radio counterparts of high flux Fermi Large Area Telescope sources, with sensitive spectral observations showing them to be continuum-dominated BL Lac objects. In this sample, 5 of 11 BL Lac objects yielded significant host detections, with standard candle redshifts z = 0.13-0.58. Our estimates and lower bounds are generally in agreement with other redshifts estimates, although our z = 0.374 estimate for J0543–5532 implies a significantly sub-luminous host.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A comprehensive method of estimating electric fields from vector magnetic field and Doppler measurements

Photospheric electric fields, estimated from sequences of vector magnetic field and Doppler measurements, can be used to estimate the flux of magnetic energy (the Poynting flux) into the corona and as time-dependent boundary conditions for dynamic models of the coronal magnetic field. We have modified and extended an existing method to estimate photospheric electric fields that combines a poloidal-toroidal decomposition (PTD) of the evolving magnetic field vector with Doppler and horizontal plasma velocities. Our current, more comprehensive method, which we dub the 'PTD-Doppler-FLCT Ideal' (PDFI) technique, can now incorporate Doppler velocities from non-normal viewing angles. It uses the FISHPACK software package to solve several two-dimensional Poisson equations, a faster and more robust approach than our previous implementations. Here, we describe systematic, quantitative tests of the accuracy and robustness of the PDFI technique using synthetic data from anelastic MHD (ANMHD) simulations, which have been used in similar tests in the past. We find that the PDFI method has less than 1% error in the total Poynting flux and a 10% error in the helicity flux rate at a normal viewing angle (θ = 0) and less than 25% and 10% errors, respectively, at large viewing angles (θ < 60°). We compare our results with other inversion methods at zero viewing angle and find that our method's estimates of the fluxes of magnetic energy and helicity are comparable to or more accurate than other methods. We also discuss the limitations of the PDFI method and its uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATES AND RAPID GROWTH OF SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLES IN LUMINOUS z ∼ 3.5 QUASARS

We present new near-infrared (IR) observations of the Hβ λ4861 and Mg II λ2798 lines for 32 luminous quasars with 3.2 < z < 3.9 using the Palomar Hale 200 inch telescope and the Large Binocular Telescope. We find that the Mg II FWHM is well correlated with the Hβ FWHM, confirming itself as a good substitute for the Hβ FWHM in the black hole mass estimates. The continuum luminosity at 5100 Å well correlates with the continuum luminosity at 3000 Å and the broad emission line luminosities (Hβ and Mg II). With simultaneous near-IR spectroscopy of the Hβ and Mg II lines to exclude the influences of flux variability, we are able to evaluate the reliability of estimating black hole masses based on the Mg II line for high redshift quasars. With the reliable Hβ line based black hole mass and Eddington ratio estimates, we find that the z ∼ 3.5 quasars in our sample have black hole masses 1.90 × 10{sup 9} M {sub ☉} ≲ M {sub BH} ≲ 1.37 × 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉}, with a median of ∼5.14 × 10{sup 9} M {sub ☉} and are accreting at Eddington ratios between 0.30 and 3.05, with a median of ∼1.12. Assuming a duty cycle of 1 and a seed black hole mass of 10{sup 4} M {sub ☉}, we show that the z ∼ 3.5 quasars in this sample can grow to their estimated black hole masses within the age of the universe at their redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DENSITY FIELD ESTIMATION FOR GALAXIES: NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE EVOLUTION OF GALAXIES WITH ENVIRONMENT IN COSMOS OUT TO z ∼ 3

It is well-known that a galaxy’s environment has a fundamental influence in shaping its properties. We study the environmental effects on galaxy evolution, with an emphasis on the environment defined as the local number density of galaxies. The density field is estimated with different estimators (weighted adaptive kernel smoothing, 10th and 5th nearest neighbors, Voronoi and Delaunay tessellation) for a K{sub s} < 24 sample of ∼190,000 galaxies in the COSMOS field at 0.1 < z < 3.1. The performance of each estimator is evaluated with extensive simulations. We show that overall there is a good agreement between the estimated density fields using different methods over ∼2 dex in overdensity values. However, our simulations show that adaptive kernel and Voronoi tessellation outperform other methods. Using the Voronoi tessellation method, we assign surface densities to a mass complete sample of quiescent and star-forming galaxies out to z ∼ 3. We show that at a fixed stellar mass, the median color of quiescent galaxies does not depend on their host environment out to z ∼ 3. We find that the number and stellar mass density of massive (>10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}) star-forming galaxies have not significantly changed since z ∼ 3, regardless of their environment. However, for massive quiescent systems at lower redshifts (z ≲ 1.3), we find a significant evolution in the number and stellar mass densities in denser environments compared to lower density regions. Our results suggest that the relation between stellar mass and local density is more fundamental than the color–density relation and that environment plays a significant role in quenching star-formation activity in galaxies at z ≲ 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improved estimates of the Milky Way’s stellar mass and star formation rate from hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis

We present improved estimates of several global properties of the Milky Way, including its current star formation rate (SFR), the stellar mass contained in its disk and bulge+bar components, as well as its total stellar mass. We do so by combining previous measurements from the literature using a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical method that allows us to account for the possibility that any value may be incorrect or have underestimated errors. We show that this method is robust to a wide variety of assumptions about the nature of problems in individual measurements or error estimates. Ultimately, our analysis yields an SFR for the Galaxy of M-dot {sub ⋆}=1.65±0.19 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, assuming a Kroupa initial mass function (IMF). By combining HB methods with Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate the latest estimates of the Galactocentric radius of the Sun, R{sub 0}, the exponential scale length of the disk, L{sub d}, and the local surface density of stellar mass, Σ{sub ⋆}(R{sub 0}), we show that the mass of the Galactic bulge+bar is M{sub ⋆}{sup B}=0.91±0.07×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}, the disk mass is M{sub ⋆}{sup D}=5.17±1.11×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}, and their combination yields a total stellar mass of M{sub ⋆}=6.08±1.14×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙} (assuming a Kroupa IMF and an exponential disk profile). This analysis is based upon a new compilation of literature bulge mass estimates, normalized to common assumptions about the stellar IMF and Galactic disk properties, presented herein. We additionally find a bulge-to-total mass ratio for the Milky Way of B/T=0.150{sub −0.019}{sup +0.028} and a specific SFR of M-dot {sub ⋆}/M{sub ⋆}=2.71±0.59×10{sup −11} yr{sup −1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Removing the ISW-lensing bias from the local-form primordial non-Gaussianity estimation

The Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect produces a secondary temperature aniso\-tropy of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), as CMB photons travel through time-varying potentials along the line-of-sight. The main contribution comes from redshifts z∼<2, where dark energy leads to a decay of potentials. As the same photons are gravitationally lensed by these decaying potentials, there exists a high degree of correlation between the ISW effect and CMB lensing, leading to a non-zero three-point correlation (bispectrum) of the observed temperature anisotropy. This ISW-lensing bispectrum, whose shape resembles that of the so-called ''local-form'' primordial bispectrum parametrized by f{sub NL}, is known to be the largest contamination of f{sub NL}. In order to avoid a spurious detection of primordial non-Gaussianity, we need to remove the ISW-lensing bias. In this work, we investigate three debiasing methods: (I) subtraction of an expected, ensemble average of the ISW-lensing bispectrum; (II) subtraction of a measured ISW-lensing bispectrum; and (III) direct subtraction of an estimated ISW signal from an observed temperature map. One may use an estimation of the ISW map from external non-CMB data or that from the CMB data themselves. As the methods II and III are based on fewer assumptions about the nature of dark energy, they are preferred over the method I. While the methods I and II yield unbiased estimates of f{sub NL} with comparable error bars, the method III yields a biased result when the underlying primordial f{sub NL} is non-zero and the ISW map is estimated from a lensing potential reconstructed from the observed temperature map. One of the sources of the bias is a lensing reconstruction noise bias which is independent of f{sub NL} and can be calculated precisely, but other f{sub NL}-dependent terms are difficult to compute reliably. We thus conclude that the method II is the best, model-independent way to remove the ISW-lensing bias of f{sub NL}, enabling us to test the physics of inflation with smaller systematic errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗