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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advances in in situ/operando techniques for catalysis research: enhancing insights and discoveries

Abstract Catalysis research has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of in situ and operando techniques. These methods enable the study of catalysts under actual operating conditions, providing unprecedented insights into catalytic mechanisms and dynamic catalyst behavior. This review discusses key in situ techniques and their applications in catalysis research. Advances in in situ electron microscopy allow direct visualization of catalysts at the atomic scale under reaction conditions. In situ spectroscopy techniques like X-ray absorption spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy can track chemical states and reveal transient intermediates. Synchrotron-based techniques offer enhanced capabilities for in situ studies. The integration of in situ methods with machine learning and computational modeling provides a powerful approach to accelerate catalyst optimization. However, challenges remain regarding radiation damage, instrumentation limitations, and data interpretation. Overall, continued development of multi-modal in situ techniques is pivotal for addressing emerging challenges and opportunities in catalysis research and technology.

Chen, Linfeng↗

DOE OSTI2022

Background-Aware 3-D Point Cloud Segmentation With Dynamic Point Feature Aggregation

With the proliferation of LiDAR sensors and 3-D vision cameras, 3-D point cloud analysis has attracted significant attention in recent years. In this article, we propose a novel 3-D point cloud learning network, referred to as dynamic point feature aggregation network (DPFA-Net), by selectively performing the neighborhood feature aggregation (FA) with dynamic pooling and an attention mechanism. DPFA-Net has two variants for semantic segmentation and classification of 3-D point clouds. As the core module of the DPFA-Net, we propose an FA layer, in which features of the dynamic neighborhood of each point are aggregated via a self-attention mechanism. In contrast to other segmentation models, which aggregate features from fixed neighborhoods, our approach can aggregate features from different neighbors in different layers providing a more selective and broader view to the query points and focusing more on the relevant features in a local neighborhood. In addition, to further improve the performance of semantic segmentation, we exploit the background–foreground (BF) information and present two novel approaches, namely, two-stage BF-Net and BF regularization. Experimental results show that the proposed DPFA-Net achieves the state-of-the-art overall accuracy score of 89.22% for semantic segmentation on the Stanford large-scale 3-D Indoor Spaces (S3DIS) dataset and provides consistently satisfactory performance across different tasks of semantic segmentation, part segmentation, and 3-D object classification. Furthermore, our model achieves 93.1% accuracy on the ModelNet40 dataset and provides a mean shape intersection-over-union (IoU) value of 85.5% for part segmentation on the ShapeNet-Part dataset. It is a also computationally more efficient compared to other methods.

3-D↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative Vulnerability Assessment for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are highly susceptible to malicious attacks due to their complex dynamics and interconnectivity. A comprehensive understanding of their vulnerabilities is essential for designing effective resilience measures. This paper presents a data-driven attack generative system for evaluating the vulnerability of CPS. The proposed approach formulates the vulnerability assessment problem as determining the feasibility of a specific attack set based on two boundary functions that represent the effectiveness and stealthiness of attacks. The attack generative model is trained using a custom loss function, with two universal approximators designed to learn the effectiveness and stealthiness functions simultaneously. Theoretical results for successful generation and asymptotic convergence of the resulting training algorithm are given. As a result, the proposed approach is evaluated via numerical simulation of an IEEE 14-bus system and gas pipeline systems, demonstrating its viability in learning how to attack nonlinear CPS and identify potential vulnerabilities.

Computer systems organization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Droplet Entrainment in Steam Supply System of Water-Cooled Small Modular Reactors: Experiment and Modeling Approaches

Droplet entrainment in steam-flow is a prominent phenomenon that needs adequate safety and risk analysis of postulated transient and accident scenarios—including experimental investigation and representative modeling and simulation (M&S)—for small modular reactor (SMR) system design and demonstration. This study identifies knowledge gaps by evaluating experimental and computational fluid dynamics modeling approaches to support early-stage reactor system design, testing, and model evaluation. Previous studies reported in the literature for steam-flow entrainment primarily focused on gigawatt capacity pressurized water reactor (PWR) systems. However, entrainment phenomena are even more prominent for PWR-type SMRs due to their more compact integrated designs, which need further research and development. To fill the research gaps, this study provides insight by specifying the phenomena of interest by leveraging the lessons learned from past research, adopting advanced M&S techniques and advanced instrumentation and control. The findings and recommendations are applicable for evaluating steam-flow entrainment models and for designing integral effect test and separate effect test facilities for gaining reactor design approvals.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Dynamically Evolving Sectors for Convective Weather Impact

A new strategy for altering existing sector boundaries in response to blocking convective weather is presented. This method seeks to improve the reduced capacity of sectors directly affected by weather by moving boundaries in a direction that offers the greatest capacity improvement. The boundary deformations are shared by neighboring sectors within the region in a manner that preserves their shapes and sizes as much as possible. This reduces the controller workload involved with learning new sector designs. The algorithm that produces the altered sectors is based on a force-deflection mesh model that needs only nominal traffic patterns and the shape of the blocking weather for input. It does not require weather-affected traffic patterns that would have to be predicted by simulation. When compared to an existing optimal sector design method, the sectors produced by the new algorithm are more similar to the original sector shapes, resulting in sectors that may be more suitable for operational use because the change is not as drastic. Also, preliminary results show that this method produces sectors that can equitably distribute the workload of rerouted weather-affected traffic throughout the region where inclement weather is present. This is demonstrated by sector aircraft count distributions of simulated traffic in weather-affected regions.

Drew, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA Turbulent Heat Flux Experiments: Summary and Lessons Learned

The Turbulent Heat Flux (THX) experiments were conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in order to collect measurements of velocities and temperatures for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation of heated flows, with a focus on propulsion system components. The experiments spanned 5 phases; four of which were conducted in the GRC AeroAcoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) using the Small Hot Jet Flow Rig (SHJAR). In addition to making velocity measurements with Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), the THX experiments introduced a new Raman-scattering based capability to measure temperatures. Computational studies were also conducted for each of the experimental configurations, in order to provide a baseline of expected CFD results and conduct an assessment of the capability of various CFD approaches for calculating flows where the turbulent transport of heat was important. Two of the collected sets of data were used for American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Propulsion Aerodynamic Workshops (PAWs). The data set from the 5th phase, collected for heated supersonic jets, was also used to construct new validation cases for the NASA Turbulence Model Resource (TMR). This paper provides an overview of the experiments and associated computations for each of the 5 test phases. Key experimental findings are presented. Lessons learned are provided concerning the effect of computational modeling choice on accuracy of predicting turbulent flows where thermal transport is important. Emphasis is placed on comparing Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes approaches with large-eddy simulation approaches. The benefits of utilizing a conjugate heat transfer method in conjunction with CFD solver for film cooling is demonstrated.

RANS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA Turbulent Heat Flux (THX) Experiments: Summary and Lessons Learned

The Turbulent Heat Flux (THX) experiments were conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in order to collect measurements of velocities and temperatures for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation of heated flows, with a focus on propulsion system components. The experiments spanned 5 phases; four of which were conducted in the GRC AeroAcoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) using the Small Hot Jet Flow Rig (SHJAR). In addition to making velocity measurements with Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), the THX experiments introduced a new Raman-scattering based capability to measure temperatures. Computational studies were also conducted for each of the experimental configurations, in order to provide a baseline of expected CFD results and conduct an assessment of the capability of various CFD approaches for calculating flows where the turbulent transport of heat was important. Two of the collected sets of data were used for American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Propulsion Aerodynamic Workshops (PAWs). The data set from the 5th phase, collected for heated supersonic jets, was also used to construct new validation cases for the NASA Turbulence Model Resource (TMR). This paper provides an overview of the experiments and associated computations for each of the 5 test phases. Key experimental findings are presented. Lessons learned are provided concerning the effect of computational modeling choice on accuracy of predicting turbulent flows where thermal transport is important. Emphasis is placed on comparing Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes approaches with large-eddy simulation approaches. The benefits of utilizing a conjugate heat transfer method in conjunction with CFD solver for film cooling is demonstrated.

RANS↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatially resolved structural order in low-temperature liquid electrolyte

Determining the degree and the spatial extent of structural order in liquids is a grand challenge. Here, we are able to resolve the structural order in a model organic electrolyte of 1 M lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiP 6 ) dissolved in 1:1 (v/v) ethylene carbonate:diethylcarbonate by developing an integrated method of liquid-phase transmission electron microscopy (TEM), cryo-TEM operated at -30°C, four-dimensional scanning TEM, and data analysis based on deep learning. This study reveals the presence of short-range order (SRO) in the high–salt concentration domains of the liquid electrolyte from liquid phase separation at the low temperature. Molecular dynamics simulations suggest the SRO originates from the Li + - (PF 6 - ) n (n > 2) local structural order induced by high LiP 6 salt concentration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Construction and characterization of a genome-scale ordered mutant collection of Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron

Ordered transposon-insertion collections, in which specific transposon-insertion mutants are stored as monocultures in a genome-scale collection, represent a promising tool for genetic dissection of human gut microbiota members. However, publicly available collections are scarce and the construction methodology remains in early stages of development. Here, we describe the assembly of a genome-scale ordered collection of transposon-insertion mutants in the model gut anaerobe Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron VPI-5482 that we created as a resource for the research community. We used flow cytometry to sort single cells from a pooled library, located mutants within this initial progenitor collection by applying a pooling strategy with barcode sequencing, and re-arrayed specific mutants to create a condensed collection with single-insertion strains covering >2500 genes. To demonstrate the potential of the condensed collection for phenotypic screening, we analyzed growth dynamics and cell morphology. We identified both growth defects and altered cell shape in mutants disrupting sphingolipid synthesis and thiamine scavenging. Finally, we analyzed the process of assembling the B. theta condensed collection to identify inefficiencies that limited coverage. We demonstrate as part of this analysis that the process of assembling an ordered collection can be accurately modeled using barcode sequencing data. We expect that utilization of this ordered collection will accelerate research into B. theta physiology and that lessons learned while assembling the collection will inform future efforts to assemble ordered mutant collections for an increasing number of gut microbiota members.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia National Laboratories for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researches to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, algebraic preconditioners, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, validation and verification methods, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, beyond Moore’s Law computing, exascale computing tools and application design, reduced order and multiscale modeling, parallel input/output, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and includes a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Battery Energy Storage Scenario Analyses Using the Lithium-Ion Battery Resource Assessment (LIBRA) Model

Meeting aggressive carbon emission goals will entail widespread deployment of renewable sources of electricity. Because these sources are variable, there is a need to develop scalable energy storage technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is supporting efforts to increase U.S. manufacturing and recycling capabilities for LIBs and to decrease costs of stationary storage batteries. Many factors influence the domestic manufacturing and cost of stationary storage batteries, including availability of critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt, and nickel), competition from various demand sectors (consumer electronics, vehicles, and battery energy storage), resource recovery (recycling), government policies, and learning in the industry, among other factors. Understanding how these factors interact and identifying synergies and bottlenecks is important for developing effective strategies for the LIB stationary energy storage system. We developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resource Analysis (LIBRA) model as a tool to help stakeholders better understand the following types of questions: What are the roles of R&D, industrial learning, and scaling of demand in lowering the cost of battery energy storage system production? How do the intersections between the EV and stationary storage sectors affect the battery supply chain? For various stationary storage and EV penetration scenarios, what volumes of critical materials might be required and what role can resource recovery play? What does expected demand for both EVs and stationary storage portend for mineral resources and overall mineral scarcity? The LIBRA model is developed using a System dynamics (SD) modeling approach to represent interactions across the segments of the battery materials supply chain. System dynamics models can capture the complex interactions and feedback between the various system components that influence supply and demand. The LIBRA model is comprised of several interacting modules that represent specific portions of the LIB supply chain. The model tracks the buildout of the domestic LIB industry over time (2020 - 2050) and in the context of competing demands for raw materials, recycling, and markets for LIBs. The LIBRA model represents major systemic feedback loops and delays across the supply chain. This report provides a complete documentation for the LIBRA model, including model assumptions, data, scenario analysis results, and sensitivity analysis of the model's input space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling graphene sheet growth and dynamical matrix calculations using molecular dynamics

Molecular dynamics (MD) has been an incredibly useful tool to model physical processes that were synthesized experimentally but not fully understood. MD, through the use of semi-empirical inter-atomic potentials, has allowed understanding of different physical processes in materials science. Yet as well as providing useful insights into materials science, molecular dynamics has a wider range of usability. In this report, I will be detailing how MD can be used to study graphene formation from a carbon liquid which requires high temperatures and pressures. Beyond this, I will describe the usefulness of MD for understanding the physics for phonon transport quantum sensors. To do this, MD was employed to determine the dynamical matrix by treating atoms as coupled oscillators. An accurate understanding of the dynamical matrix of a system is required to calculate the non-equilibrium Green’s function used to describe the phonon transport within phonon wave-guides. I found that, across multiple pressures and temperatures, randomly placed carbon atoms will show evidence of pent-first formation with semi-empirical models. Density functional theory (DFT), on the other hand, was too computationally expensive to use for full scale MD simulations, but we have the possibility of training a machine learned interatomic potential to approximate DFT for carbon in the environments being studied for pent-first graphene sheet formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Anomalous on-orbit behaviour of the NASA Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Dewar

A brief summary of the nominal cryogenic performance of the Dewar is presented, with emphasis on several aspects of the helium and spacecraft dynamical behavior. The occurrence of temperature and pressure oscillators in the Dewar porous plug is examined. The impact of the internal instrument malfunctions and of external radiation sources on the performance of the Dewar and of the instruments is reviewed. From measurements of the COBE spacecraft spin rate, the spin coupling of the liquid helium to the walls of the Dewar was monitored. The spin measurements are analyzed and a model for the coupling is presented. A number of 'lessons learned' from the COBE mission are reviewed, and the applicability of these lessons to future missions involving cryogenic payloads is addressed.

Volz, S. M.↗