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At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Compound flood simulations indicate rising public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters in Waikīkī, Hawai‘i

Waikīkī, Hawai‘i serves as a valuable case study for flood vulnerability due to its low elevation, present-day exposure to multiple flood sources, and role as the state’s economic engine. This study applies the high-resolution, open-source WRF-Hydro-CUFA (Coastal Urban Flood Application) model to simulate compound flood interactions among pluvial, fluvial, coastal, storm drain-driven, and subsurface processes, and to evaluate how flood characteristics in Waikīkī evolve under projected sea-level rise (SLR). Simulated water levels in an estuarine drainage canal, serving as the primary outlet for gravity-flow drainage from Waikīkī, show strong agreement with observations (r ≥ 0.935, R 2 ≥ 0.874), accurately reproducing flooding observed during recent 5-year and 50-year storm events. Simulations incorporating SLR demonstrate a shift in dominant flood drivers as sea levels rise. In addition, results identify critical thresholds at which elevated estuarine tailwater conditions cause widespread drainage backflow, eventually occurring in the absence of rainfall. These findings suggest that tidally driven flooding will progressively dominate over rainfall-driven events, increasing public exposure to highly contaminated canal and groundwater sources. The results underscore the urgent need to integrate water quality issues and drainage failure into coastal flood management strategies for low-lying urban environments, particularly those reliant on polluted estuarine waterways for stormwater management.

Compound flooding↗
DOE OSTI2026

The effect of relative humidity and temperature on the response of stomatal conductance to vapor pressure deficit in tropical trees

Understanding how leaf gas exchange responds to changes in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is key to predicting tropical forest resilience to climate change. Stomata regulate leaf water and CO2 diffusion, and respond to changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH), two drivers of VPD. At high temperatures, the cuticular pathway may also become significant and participate in the overall leaf conductance. Here, we measured gas exchange under light and dark conditions to investigate the stomatal and cuticular responses to temperature and RH on detached branches in five tropical tree species. Leaf conductance in the dark, when stomata are essentially closed, was not markedly impacted by temperature and RH, suggesting a minimal response of the cuticular pathway to these conditions. We compared six steady-state conductance models incorporating different effects of photosynthesis and evaporative demand on stomatal control. All models performed well (residual standard deviation, σ, < 0.025 mol m-2 s-1), but the best-fitting model (σ = 0.017 mol m-2 s-1) used a nonlinear relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance and incorporated RH rather than vapor pressure difference. All models overestimated the steady-state conductance at high RH. Furthermore, leaf conductance immediately increased after a decrease in RH (wrong-way response), but not after an increase in leaf temperature. This suggests that the mechanisms underlying stomatal response to VPD need further investigation. The non-linear coupling between photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance indicates a sharper physiological response than previously acknowledged.

Lamour, Julien↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observer-Based Nonlinear Control Scheme to Reduce Oscillations and Zero Crossing in Skid-Steer Vehicles

Motion sickness is a common condition experienced by drivers of skid-steer vehicles, primarily caused by zero crossing and oscillations in undamped systems. This study proposes an observer-based nonlinear control scheme to reduce transient oscillations and zero-crossing phenomena in skid-steer vehicles, thereby potentially alleviating motion sickness. Reducing transient oscillations and zero crossing in the transient response may alleviate motion sickness. A nonlinear damping controller is designed to improve transient response by reducing oscillations and zero-crossing. To design the controller, a reduced-order kinematic model based on coordinate transformation is developed. This transformation not only converts the system modeling into a controllable form but also enhances control performance. Modeling error is addressed by considering the distance between the center of the vehicle and the sensor location. Despite these improvements, model uncertainties and external disturbances remain, which may degrade control performance. To ensure robustness and estimate such disturbances, a high-order sliding mode observer (HOSMO) is incorporated. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through MATLAB/Simulink and TruckMaker simulations. From the simulation results, it was shown that the proposed method reduced the mean squared error of the tracking error to within 10 % compared to the state feedback controller with the HOSMO.

Seo, Jiwon [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Re↗
NASA NTRS1977

Operational experience in the Langley expansion tube with various test gases

The Langley Expansion Tube is an operational facility capable of producing good quality, highly repeatable, quasi-steady flow for test times sufficient to establish flow about blunt axisymmetric and two-dimensional models. Due to the capability of testing with arbitrary test gases, a wide range of real-gas, hypersonic-hypervelocity flow conditions may be generated. However, for a given test gas, the range of operating conditions producing useful flow is shown to be rather limited; hence, the facility yields a given flow condition for a given test gas, and variation in flow conditions comes about by using different test gases. Data are presented for operations using air and carbon dioxide as test gases. The driver gas was unheated helium at a nominal pressure of 5000 psi (34.5 MN sq m).

Miller, C. G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar Utility Tariff and Revenue Impact Analysis: A Guidebook for International Practitioners

Depending on a range of technical, economic, policy, regulatory, and market-related factors, the adoption of DPV may have a net positive or negative financial impact on utilities and ratepayers. This guidebook provides a methodological approach for quantifying the net financial impact of DPV on utilities (in the form of “net revenue losses”) and ratepayers (in the form of “net tariff impacts”). Written for technical staff at utilities, regulatory bodies, energy ministries, research institutes, and civil society organizations who wish to better understand the financial impacts of DPV in their jurisdiction, this guidebook can be used to inform important decisions regarding DPV compensation, tariff design, and regulatory cost allocations, among other aspects. It is focused exclusively on customer-sited DPV systems and adopts a primarily cost-based (as opposed to an equally valid value-based) perspective to understanding DPV financial impacts. The approach for calculating net revenue losses can be applied in nearly any utility jurisdiction, regardless of institutional arrangements, business models, or regulatory paradigms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic (PV) Module Technologies: 2020 Benchmark Costs and Technology Evolution Framework Results

This report benchmarks 2020 PV module minimum sustainable price (MSP) via bottom-up manufacturing cost analysis, for established PV technologies in mass production, including crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium (di)selenide. We provide technology roadmaps to additional MSP reductions for these PV technologies. Separately, we consider III-V and perovskite PV technologies which are currently in small-scale or pilot production. Finally, this report uses a technology evolution framework (TEF) to analyze drivers of levelized cost of energy reductions, including installed system cost - which is heavily influenced by module price - as well as service life and annual energy yield.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Host phylogeny matters: Examining sources of variation in infection risk by blood parasites across a tropical montane bird community in India

Abstract Background Identifying patterns and drivers of infection risk among host communities is crucial to elucidate disease dynamics and predict infectious disease risk in wildlife populations. Blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus are a diverse group of vector-borne protozoan parasites that affect bird populations globally. Despite their widespread distribution and exceptional diversity, factors underlying haemosporidian infection risk in wild bird communities remain poorly understood. While some studies have examined variation in avian haemosporidian risk, researchers have primarily focused on host ecological traits without considering host phylogenetic relationships. In this study, we employ a phylogenetically informed approach to examine the association between host ecological traits and haemosporidian infection risk in endemic bird communities in the Western Ghats Sky Islands. Methods We used parasite sequence data based on partial mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, that was amplified from genomic DNA extracted from 1177 birds (28 species) across the Western Ghats to assess infection of birds with haemosporidian parasites. We employed a Bayesian phylogenetic mixed effect modelling approach to test whether haemosporidian infection risk was affected by seven species-specific and four individual-level ecological predictors. We also examined the effect of host phylogenetic relationships on the observed patterns of variation in haemosporidian infection risk by estimating phylogenetic signal. Results Our study shows that host ecological traits and host phylogeny differentially influence infection risk by Plasmodium (generalist parasite) and Haemoproteus (specialist parasite). For Plasmodium , we found that sociality, sexual dimorphism and foraging strata were important ecological predictors. For Haemoproteus , patterns of infection risk among host species were associated with sociality, species elevation and individual body condition. Interestingly, variance in infection risk explained by host phylogeny was higher for Haemoproteus parasites compared to Plasmodium . Conclusions Our study highlights that while host ecological traits promoting parasite exposure and host susceptibility are important determinants of infection risk, host phylogeny also contributes substantially to predicting patterns of haemosporidian infection risk in multi-host communities. Importantly, infection risk is driven by joint contributions of host ecology and host phylogeny and studying these effects together could increase our ability to better understand the drivers of infection risk and predict future disease threats. Graphical abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Grass Fires Burning in Marginal Conditions to Atmospheric Turbulence

Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aerothermal Effects of Cavities and Protuberances for High-Speed Sample Return Capsules

Extraterrestrial sample return is a growing component of solar system exploration. Currently, four missions, Stardust, 1 Muses-C, 2 Genesis, and Mars Sample Return, are under development that employ sample return as a prime component of the mission architecture. Respectively, these missions will return samples from the tail of a comet, an asteroid, the solar wind, and, Mars. An important component of these missions and the focus of this paper is the design of the sample return capsule (SRC). The purpose of the SRC is to safely return to Earth any gathered samples for terrestrial analysis. The two major design constraints for any SRC are as follows: 1) it must be able to survive a high-speed Earth entry (11 km/s to as a high as 15 km/s), 2) the mass of the SRC must be as small as possible. Because the SRC mass is carried from Earth to the sample sight and back, the SRC mass is a strong driver in the mission mass budget. Further, for the Mars Sample Return Capsule, planetary protection is another constraint. For this capsule, the probability of planetary contamination at Earth due to an SRC failure at entry must be minimal. For an SRC, a possible failure mechanism is severe local heating as a result of cavities and or protuberances in the SRC forebody heatshield. For example, the Apollo Command Module had a number of cavities and protuberances as part of the baseline designs Wind-tunnel tests of models containing small cavities and protuberances showed severe local heating augmentations in the vicinity of these surface discontinuities.4-5 As another example, the Genesis SRC forebody heat-shield contains penetrations (cavities) to mount the vehicle to the carrier bus. It is expected that these penetrations will also experience a severe local heating environment. A concern is that the large thermal gradients may produce sufficient thermal stress to cause local mechanical failure of the heatshield. Penetrations to the forebody heat-shield can also result from damage at vehicle integration, during launch, or during transportation of the sample return capsule from earth to the sample site and back. For example, the Starting SRC was damaged near the shoulder during the heatshield integration process producing a local surface discontinuity. Also, the Starting SRC traverses through the tail of a comet and is in space for 7 years. Thus, damage to the heatshield as a result of micrometeroid impact is a concern. Finally, it is difficult to characterize the effects of these potential heatshield singularities with ground-test facilities. Either detailed simulation or a dedicated flight test is required.

Olynick, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

Material flows and GHG emissions from housing stock evolution in US counties, 2020–60

The evolution of housing stocks determines demand for construction materials and energy, and associated emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). The contribution of construction to building life-cycle emissions is growing as buildings become more energy efficient and the energy supply decarbonizes. A housing stock model is developed for counties in the United States using dynamic vacancy rates which endogenously influence stock out- and inflows. Stocks of three house types and 10 construction cohorts are projected for all contiguous US counties for the period 2020–60. Inflows and outflows of construction materials are then estimated along with GHG emissions associated with material production and construction activities in scenarios defined by stock turnover rates, population share by house type, and floor area characteristics of new houses. The results provide new insights into the drivers of construction-related emissions at local and national levels, and identify opportunities for their reduction. Demolition material flows grow in relation to construction material flows over the analysis period. Increasing the stock turnover rate increases future floor area per person, material requirements, and emissions from construction. Scenarios with reduced floor area and more multifamily homes in new construction have lower floor area growth, material requirements, and emissions from construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1990

Predicted and measured in-flight wing deformations of a forward-swept-wing aircraft

An electrooptical flight-deflection measurement system (FDMS) is described in terms of its use in structural testing of the composite forward-swept wing of the X-29 aircraft. The wing deflected shapes measured using the present system are compared to the shapes predicted by NASTRAN and other codes as well as data from ground-test load measurements. The electrooptical FDMS is based on a control unit, two receivers, a target driver, and 12-16 IR LED targets. The FDMS determines the in-flight deflected wing shapes at a variety of altitudes at Mach 0.9, and the results are compared to the analytically predicted wing-twist distributions. The FDMS data describe the predicted increasing streamwise twist with increasing dynamic pressure and suggest that the streamwise twist is more prevalent at the inboard measurement station than at the wing tip. This hook shape is not represented in the predicted data, and suggestions are given for improving the modeling of the X-29 wing.

Lokos, William A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Role of Temperature, Humidity and Rainfall on Influenza Transmission in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama

Worldwide, seasonal influenza causes about 500,000 deaths and 5 million severe illnesses per year. The environmental drivers of influenza transmission are poorly understood especially in the tropics. We aimed to identify meteorological factors for influenza transmission in tropical Central America. We gathered laboratory-confirmed influenza case-counts by week from Guatemala City, San Salvador Department (El Salvador) and Panama Province from 2006 to 2010. The average total cases per year were: 390 (Guatemala), 99 (San Salvador) and 129 (Panama). Meteorological factors including daily air temperature, rainfall, relative and absolute humidity (RH, AH) were obtained from ground stations, NASA satellites and land models. For these factors, we computed weekly averages and their deviation from the 5-yr means. We assessed the relationship between the number of influenza case-counts and the meteorological factors, including effects lagged by 1 to 4 weeks, using Poisson regression for each site. Our results showed influenza in San Salvador would increase by 1 case within a week of every 1 day with RH>75% (Relative Risk (RR)= 1.32, p=.001) and every 1C increase in minimum temperature (RR=1.29, p=.007) but it would decrease by 1 case for every 1mm-above mean weekly rainfall (RR=0.93,p<.001) (model pseudo-R2=0.55). Within 2 weeks, influenza in Panama was increased by 1 case for every 1% increase in RH (RR=1.04, p=.003), and it was increased by 2 cases for every 1C increase of minimum temperature (RR=2.01, p<.001) (model pseudo-R2=0.4). Influenza counts in Guatemala had 1 case increase for every 1C increase in minimum temperature in the previous week (RR=1.21, p<.001), and for every 1mm/day-above normal increase of rainfall rate (RR=1.03, p=.03) (model pseudo-R2=0.54). Our findings that cases increase with temperature and humidity differ from some temperate-zone studies. But they indicate that climate parameters such as humidity and temperature could be predictive of influenza activity and should be incorporated into country-specific influenza transmission models

Soebiyanto, Radina P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

State of Wildfires

Fire is an essential component of ecosystems and acts as key driver of biogeochemical cycling with impacts on vegetation structure and composition, soil conditions, and climate feedbacks. Fire behavior and effects vary based on the types of fuel, fuel dryness, and frequency of ignition. Due to changing climate and land use patterns, fire danger is increasing in many regions globally, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Recurrent fires help to determine the distribution of trees and grasses, and overall fuel load, which inform the behavior of future fires. Process-based models can be used to capture multi-scale impacts at the forest stand-level up to the landscape level, and across minutes to centuries, but must capture variation in fire behavior and intensity as a function of the fuel and climate, from high intensity forest crown fires within boreal regions to low intensity rapid grass fires of the tropics. Fire model development demonstrates our ability to capture large scale fire influenced biogeography and vegetation distribution at the earth system scale through vegetation traits and fire feedbacks. At the individual stand scale the importance of interactions and feedbacks between above and below ground process is essential to capturing the vegetation dynamics across boreal forest systems. Improving the mechanics of including plant physiology and specifically live fuel moisture content is the next step to advancing the capability of process based models to inform fire research. Advances in the testing and creation of a mechanistic live fuel moisture model demonstrate the foundation for future live fuel dynamics research that can be informed by field and remote sensing information. Improved remote sensing, technological and modeling capabilities support a more comprehensive and cohesive fire response that will be better equipped to overcome current barriers and anticipate the new reality of fires in a warming world.

wildfires↗
NASA NTRS1996

Development of a Driver Code for the WICS Project

Wall Interference Correction System (WICS) is a computational technique to evaluate the wind tunnel wall interference corrections for blockage, Mach number, dynamic pressure and angle of attack. The objective is to predict the effects of the bounding walls on wind tunnel measurements [1]. The procedure attempts to compute these corrections in real time so that the test engineer can implement these by adjusting wind tunnel controls for angle of attack and dynamic pressure while the test is in progress in the 12 ft. pressure wind tunnel at the Ames Research Center. The technique utilizes an ideal flow solver PMARC (Panel Method developed at the Ames Research Center) to compute influence coefficients in an internal flow mode by representing a paneled model of the tunnel for fullspan and semispan tests.

Ghosh, Amitabha↗
DOE OSTI2022

Friction stir welding and self-ion irradiation effects on microstructure and mechanical properties changes within oxide dispersion strengthened steel $\mathrm{MA956}$

We report the joining process for oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys remains a key challenge facing the nuclear community. The microstructure and mechanical properties were characterized in the base material and friction stir welded ODS MA956 irradiated with 5 MeV Fe 2+ ions from 400 to 500°C up to 25 dpa. Nanoindentation was performed to assess changes in hardness and yield stress, and the dispersed barrier hardening (DBH) model was applied to described results. A combination of scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and atom probe tomography (APT) were used to assess evolution of the microstructure including dispersoids, network dislocations and dislocation loops, nanoclusters, and solid solution concentrations. Overall, softening was observed as a result of increased dose, which was exacerbated at 500°C. The formation and coarsening of new dispersoids was noted while nanoclusters tended to dissolve in the base material, and were not observed in the stir zone. Solute nanocluster evolution was identified as a primary driver of the changes in mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation

Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here, in this study, we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗