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NASA NTRS2018

ISRU Technology Development for Extraction of Water from the Mars Surface

Goals: Develop technologies to extract water from planetary regolith considering production rate vs: energy/power consumption (efficiency, yield, heat recuperation options); Mass and sizing: modularity, batch sizes, soil feed options, etc.; Ruggedness in terms of soil, environmental, and operational parameters; seals and component wear, etc.; Removal of product and disposal of spent material. Summary: Technology development is underway for several ISRU water extraction hardware concepts for Mars application - Hydrated minerals (Auger dryer, Microwave, Open Air), Subsurface Ice (Rodwell); Models are developed with experimental and breadboard efforts for use in larger ISRU system models; Each effort consists of a 3 year development plan, with the goal of integrating into a larger subsystem test in 2020 - Concurrent technology advance allows for flexibility in system design; depending on architecture decisions and progress of associated subsystems.

In-Situ Resource Utilization↗
NASA NTRS2019

No Clear, Direct Evidence for Multiple Protoplanets Orbiting LkCa 15: LkCa 15 bcd are Likely Inner Disk Signals

Two studies utilizing sparse aperture-masking (SAM) interferometry and Hα differential imaging have reported multiple Jovian companions around the young solar-mass star, LkCa 15 (LkCa 15 bcd): thefirst claimed direct detection of infant, newly formed planets (“protoplanets”). We present new near-infrared direct imaging/spectroscopy from the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) system coupled with Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS) integral field spectrograph and multi-epoch thermal infrared imaging from Keck/ NIRC2 of LkCa 15 at high Strehl ratios. These data provide the first direct imaging look at the same wavelengths and in the same locations where previous studies identified the LkCa 15 protoplanets,and thus offer the first decisive test of their existence.The data do not reveal these planets. Instead,we resolve extended emission tracing adust disk with a brightness and location comparable to that claimed for LkCa 15 bcd. Forward-models attributing this signal to orbiting planets are inconsistent with the combined SCExAO/CHARIS and Keck/NIRC2 data. An inner disk provides a more compelling explanation for the SAM detections and perhaps also the claimed Hα detection of LkCa 15 b. We conclude that there is currently no clear, direct evidence for multiple protoplanets orbiting LkCa 15, although the system likely contains at least one unseen Jovian companion. To identify Jovian companions around LkCa 15 from future observations, the inner disk should be detected and its effect modeled, removed, and shown to be distinguishable from planets. Protoplanet candidates identified from similar systems should likewise be clearly distinguished from disk emission through modeling.

Thayne Currie↗
NASA NTRS2020

NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Social Network and Community of Practice

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) have been planned and funded by the NASA Earth Science Division. Both programs have a focus on engaging stakeholders and developing science useful for decision making. The resulting programs have funded significant scientific output and advancements in understanding how satellite remote sensing observations can be used to not just study how the Earth is changing, but also create data products that are of high utility to stakeholders and decisions makers. In this paper we focus on documenting thematic diversity of research themes and methods used, and how the CMS and ABoVE themes are related. We do this through developing a Correlated Topic Model on the 521 papers produced by the two programs and plotting the results in a network diagram. Through analysis of the themes in these papers, we document the relationships between researchers and institutions participating in CMS and ABoVE programs and the benefits from sustained engagement with stakeholders due to recurring funding. We note an absence of policy engagement in the papers and conclude that funded researchers need to be more ambitious and explicit in drawing the connection between their research and carbon policy implications in order to meet the stated goals of the CMS and ABoVE programs.

Molly E Brown↗
NASA NTRS2022

Peru Health and Air Quality II: Leveraging Earth Observations and Health Data to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Peru's Madre de Dios region is a hotspot for dengue fever and leishmaniasis due to its tropical Amazonian climate. Though treatable, these zoonotic diseases are debilitating for under-resourced communities whose already close proximity to mosquito and sandfly vectors continues to increase via rapid urbanization and deforestation. Peru’s Ministries of Health (MINSA) and Environment (MINAM) are working to better understand the environmental factors amplifying the risk of dengue fever and leishmaniasis transmission. The first term of this project classified the land use and land cover of Madre de Dios’ 11 districts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 and identified a correlation between both diseases and urbanization. Our team expanded this analysis by creating urban-forest edge maps and incorporating climatic and topographic variables with data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). We determined these variables’ impacts on disease incidence by assessing existing literature and running regression models. Dengue fever correlated with urban-forest edge, urban area, slope, temperature, and precipitation. Leishmaniasis primarily correlated with forest-edge area and elevation, but lacking additional statistical significance prevented further work, a decision supported by the literature. Thus, the risk matrix and risk map which we scripted in R to visualize the risk of disease posed to districts alongside health post locations addresses only dengue fever. The results and products will inform MINSA and MINAM in public health interventions, resource distribution, and policy initiatives.

Jennifer Rogers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT)

ESA and NASA have both started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. Earth System Digital Twins integrate diverse Earth and human activity models, continuous observations, and information system capabilities to provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will first provide a short description of ESA’s, NASA’s and CNES’s current efforts in Digital Twins: • Destination Earth (DestinE) is the first initiative of the European Union to create a Digital Twin of the Earth, particularly focused on weather and climate, and as a coordinated effort between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). • Additionally, ESA is developing several Digital Twin Earth Precursor Activities to study some of the key scientific and technical challenges associated with building a “Digital Twin Earth”. These include forests, hydrology, Antarctica, food systems, oceans, and climate hot spots Digital Twin prototypes. • NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has started an initiative in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT), with 14 current projects in this area, developing various information systems technologies and prototypes that will help prepare the development of future NASA Digital Twins. • CNES is currently developing the concept of a Digital Twin Factory (DTF), which relies on a data lake, a high computing capability using clouds and/or HPC and has thematic algorithms and methodologies able to generate registered and coherent layers of information in order to enrich a datacube from which physical indicators can be computed spatially. NASA, ESA and CNES are also currently defining science use cases that will be presented during the townhall; those and a few short discussions of current projects will serve as a starting point to engage a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.

earth science remote sensing; Information systems↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Central America Regional Climate Change Program: Tools for Your Use

USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team, in partnership with EPA, NASA, Oak Ridge National Lab, and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), have had a significant impact on the region's ability to monitor, mitigate, and adapt to environmental threats. Environmental decision-making tools and data are posted on a website (SERVIR: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.pov/home.html)that provides satellite and geographic data and maps to anybody with an Internet connection. The SERVIR program has been identified as the model for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) - a major international effort to develop a 21st century system for environmental management and disaster response. In coordination with the USAID/EPA program, NASA has developed a GIs tool that enables countries to examine their forest cover and document changes on an annual basis. This information is used in calculating carbon emissions as part of greenhouse gas inventories, but also serves a valuable monitoring function. In addition, USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team in collaboration with EPA are helping countries meet their obligations as signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). EPA is assisting Central American governments to improve the quality of their greenhouse gas emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC through the development of tools and improvements in data quality. New EPA tools developed include software to automatically calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the agricultural and forestry sector inventories, determine key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and document institutional arrangements. Several of these tools are state of the art and are comparable to tools currently used in the U.S.

Irwin, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2006

Comprehensive Environmental Informatics System (CEIS) Integrating Crew and Vehicle Environmental Health

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems have been pursued as highly integrated systems that include smart sensors, diagnostic and prognostics software for assessments of real-time and life-cycle vehicle health information. Inclusive to such a system is the requirement to monitor the environmental health within the vehicle and the occupants of the vehicle. In this regard an enterprise approach to informatics is used to develop a methodology entitled, Comprehensive Environmental Informatics System (CEIS). The hardware and software technologies integrated into this system will be embedded in the vehicle subsystems, and maintenance operations, to provide both real-time and life-cycle health information of the environment within the vehicle cabin and of its occupants. This comprehensive information database will enable informed decision making and logistics management. One key element of the CEIS is interoperability for data acquisition and archive between environment and human system monitoring. With comprehensive components the data acquired in this system will use model based reasoning systems for subsystem and system level managers, advanced on-board and ground-based mission and maintenance planners to assess system functionality. Knowledge databases of the vehicle health state will be continuously updated and reported for critical failure modes, and routinely updated and reported for life cycle condition trending. Sufficient intelligence, including evidence-based engineering practices which are analogous to evidencebased medicine practices, will be included in the CEIS to result in more rapid recognition of off-nominal operation to enable quicker corrective actions. This will result from better information (rather than just data) for improved crew/operator situational awareness, which will produce significant vehicle and crew safety improvements, as well as increasing the chance for mission success, future mission planning as well as training. Other benefits include improved reliability, increase safety in operations and cost of operations. The cost benefits stem from significantly reduced processing and operations manpower, predictive maintenance for systems and subjects. The improvements in vehicle functionality and cost will result from increased prognostic and diagnostic capability due to the detailed total human exploration system health knowledge from CEIS. A collateral benefit is that there will be closer observations of the vehicle occupants as wrist watch sized devices are worn for continuous health monitoring. Additional database acquisition will stem from activities in countermeasure practices to ensure peak performance capability by occupants of the vehicle. The CEIS will provide data from advanced sensing technologies and informatics modeling which will be useful in problem troubleshooting, and improving NASA s awareness of systems during operation.

Nall, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A State-of-the-Art Experimental Laboratory for Cloud and Cloud-Aerosol Interaction Research

The state of the art for predicting climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere with high accuracy is problematic. Confidence intervals on current long-term predictions (on the order of 100 years) are so large that the ability to make informed decisions with regard to optimum strategies for mitigating both the causes of climate change and its effects is in doubt. There is ample evidence in the literature that large sources of uncertainty in current climate models are various aerosol effects. One approach to furthering discovery as well as modeling, and verification and validation (V&V) for cloud-aerosol interactions is use of a large "cloud chamber" in a complimentary role to in-situ and remote sensing measurement approaches. Reproducing all of the complex interactions is not feasible, but it is suggested that the physics of certain key processes can be established in a laboratory setting so that relevant fluid-dynamic and cloud-aerosol phenomena can be experimentally simulated and studied in a controlled environment. This report presents a high-level argument for significantly improved laboratory capability, and is meant to serve as a starting point for stimulating discussion within the climate science and other interested communities.

Fremaux, Charles M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Importance of Earth Observations and Data Collaboration within Environmental Intelligence Supporting Arctic Research

Within the IARPC Collaboration Team activities of 2016, Arctic in-situ and remote earth observations advanced topics such as :1) exploring the role for new and innovative autonomous observing technologies in the Arctic; 2) advancing catalytic national and international community based observing efforts in support of the National Strategy for the Arctic Region; and 3) enhancing the use of discovery tools for observing system collaboration such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Arctic Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Arctic Collaborative Environment (ACE) project geo reference visualization decision support and exploitation internet based tools. Critical to the success of these earth observations for both in-situ and remote systems is the emerging of new and innovative data collection technologies and comprehensive modeling as well as enhanced communications and cyber infrastructure capabilities which effectively assimilate and dissemination many environmental intelligence products in a timely manner. The Arctic Collaborative Environment (ACE) project is well positioned to greatly enhance user capabilities for accessing, organizing, visualizing, sharing and producing collaborative knowledge for the Arctic.

Casas, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Technology Maturation Plan for the Development of Nuclear Electric Propulsion

Over the last two years NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) Project formulated a Technology Maturation Plan (TMP) for development of the sub-systems needed for a MW-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) system which, combined with a high thrust chemical propulsion stage, would be suitable for human missions to Mars. Two recent assessments, independently conducted by the National Academies for Science, Engineering, and Medicine and the NASA Engineering & Safety Center, concluded that the technologies required for a high-power NEP system are immature and the attendant risks insufficiently quantified to justify initiating a flight project. For NEP to be available as a viable option to meet flight opportunities in the late 2030s / 2040s time frame, development of the key sub-systems must begin now. SNP has subdivided the NEP system into five Critical Technology Elements (CTE): the nuclear reactor, power conversion, power management and distribution, electric propulsion sub-system, and the primary heat rejection system. Development plans for each of these CTEs have been drafted which will serve as the template for a focused milestone-driven research and development campaign intended to advance each CTE to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5. This will be accomplished by building and testing hardware at relevant power levels (~ 1 MW) and for relevant durations (2,500 hours, ~10% of the required operational lifetime) and conducting numerical modeling of the CTEs anchored by the accumulated test data to predict system performance and reliability. Concurrent with this work, high-level coupled system/mission modeling will be carried out to refine the key performance parameters that the various CTEs must achieve. Non-advocate reviews will be held at milestone points to assess progress and inform down-select decisions. The strategy for formulating the TMP was described previously; this paper describes ongoing progress on the drafting and baselining of the plan, including key specific details.

Space Nuclear Propulsion↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Technology Maturation Plan for the Development of Nuclear Electric Propulsion

Over the last two years NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) Project formulated a Technology Maturation Plan (TMP) for development of the sub-systems needed for a MW-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) system which, combined with a high thrust chemical propulsion stage, would be suitable for human missions to Mars. Two recent assessments, independently conducted by the National Academies for Science, Engineering, and Medicine and the NASA Engineering & Safety Center, concluded that the technologies required for a high-power NEP system are immature and the attendant risks insufficiently quantified to justify initiating a flight project. For NEP to be available as a viable option to meet flight opportunities in the late 2030s / 2040s time frame, development of the key sub-systems must begin now. SNP has subdivided the NEP system into five Critical Technology Elements (CTE): the nuclear reactor, power conversion, power management and distribution, electric propulsion sub-system, and the primary heat rejection system. Development plans for each of these CTEs have been drafted which will serve as the template for a focused milestone-driven research and development campaign intended to advance each CTE to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5. This will be accomplished by building and testing hardware at relevant power levels (~ 1 MW) and for relevant durations (2,500 hours, ~10% of the required operational lifetime) and conducting numerical modeling of the CTEs anchored by the accumulated test data to predict system performance and reliability. Concurrent with this work, high-level coupled system/mission modeling will be carried out to refine the key performance parameters that the various CTEs must achieve. Non-advocate reviews will be held at milestone points to assess progress and inform down-select decisions. The strategy for formulating the TMP was described previously*; this paper describes ongoing progress on the drafting and baselining of the plan, including key specific details. * “Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems”, K.A. Polzin, et. al., International Electric Propulsion Conference IEPC 2022, IEPC-2022-155

Nuclear Electric Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS1994

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids

When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroid’s physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options.

Rumpf, Clemens↗