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Accelerated screening of functional atomic impurities in halide perovskites using high-throughput computations and machine learning

The pressing need for novel materials that can serve rising demands in solar cell and optoelectronic technologies makes the nexus of halide perovskites, high-throughput computations, and machine learning, very promising. Ever increasing amounts of data on the structure, fundamental properties, and device performance of halide perovskites provide opportunities for learning chemical rules and design principles that make these materials attractive, and applying them across wide chemical spaces. In this work, we show that impurity properties of halide perovskites computed using density functional theory (DFT) can be combined with machine learning (ML) to deliver predictive models and quick identification of optoelectronically active impurity atoms. Our computation lead to the largest reported dataset of the formation energies and charge transition levels of Pb-site impurities in methylammonium lead halide (MAPbX 3 ) perovskites. Descriptors are defined to uniquely represent any impurity atom in any MAPbX 3 compound and mapped to the computed impurity properties using regression techniques such as Gaussian process regression, neural networks, and random forests. We use the best optimized predictive models to make predictions for hundreds of impurities across 9 MAPbX 3 compounds and create lists of dominating impurities, that is, impurities that can shift the equilibrium Fermi level in the perovskite as determined by native point defects. Finally, this accelerated screening powered by computations and machine learning can guide the identification of problematic impurities that may cause undesired recombination of charge carriers, as well as impurities that can be deliberately introduced to tune the perovskite conductivity and resulting photovoltaic absorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DESI DR2 results. I. Baryon acoustic oscillations from the Lyman alpha forest

We present the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly⁢𝛼) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the autocorrelation of the Ly⁢𝛼 forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of 2 larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at 𝑧 eff =2.33. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in Ly⁢𝛼 BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios 𝐷 𝐻 ⁡(𝑧 eff )/𝑟 𝑑 = 8.632 ± 0.098 ± 0.026 and 𝐷 𝑀 ⁡(𝑧 eff )/𝑟 𝑑 = 38.99 ± 0.52 ± 0.12, where 𝐷 𝐻 = 𝑐/𝐻⁡(𝑧) is the Hubble distance, 𝐷 𝑀 is the transverse comoving distance, 𝑟 𝑑 is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP5

These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP3 and SSP5 [Updated simulations based on population-driven urban intensity transitions]

These data (v3) are updated from previous versions (1 and 2) in that they include consider the effects of population on transitions in urban land intensity. This leads to more reasonable differences in urban land projections under variant SSPs. For the present dataset, both SSP3 and SSP5 are provided. These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) and SSP 3 based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗

State of Innovation 2025: Progress in Accelerating Next-Generation Cement and Concrete Technologies

The cement and concrete sectors are entering a decisive period as next-generation technologies advance from laboratory research to demonstration, early deployment, and first-of-a-kind commercial plants. Building on the 2024 State of Innovation report, the 2025 outlook highlights both the rapid acceleration of innovation and the urgent need for coordinated action across the value chain. Venture capital activity into the cement and concrete space stabilized following the record surge of 2022-2023, yet landmark financings, such as Sublime Systems' $200 million round and Terra CO2's $124 million Series B, signal continued investor confidence in companies approaching commercialization. Corporate procurement has become a powerful new catalyst, with Microsoft, Amazon, and CRH (Cement Roadstone Holdings) Ventures providing long-term commitments that underpin the first wave of next-generation cementitious products. The sector is shifting from early-stage experimentation toward the scaling of well-capitalized leaders capable of bridging the critical "capitalization gap." Early innovators continue to expand the toolkit through novel binders, electrochemical cements, biogenic limestone, and carbonate mineralization pathways. Going into 2026, cost competitiveness, durability validation, and scalability enabled by resilient supply chains remain the decisive factors for market adoption. At the 2025 Next Generation Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Meeting, attendees emphasized dual-track funding strategies that integrate federal grants with private capital as key to enabling market breakthrough. State programs and corporate demand are sustaining momentum, while successful companies increasingly demonstrate both economic value and reduced dependence on imported materials. The National Concrete Pavement Technology Center and others underscored that broad integration of next-generation materials will hinge on standards compatibility, verified field performance, and workforce readiness. Colorado continues to serve as a proving ground through pilot programs that combine supplier training, phased implementation, and real-world data to de-risk innovation and provide replicable models for other regions. The 2025 Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Workshop reinforced that scaling next-generation materials will require alignment among technology innovation, performance validation, and market demand. Stakeholders must move beyond siloed efforts toward collaborative frameworks that coordinate standards, funding, and infrastructure deployment. As a neutral convener and technical validator, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) plays a pivotal role in bridging innovation and market adoption through collaborative research, technology validation, and entrepreneurship programs. By uniting innovators, incumbents, policymakers, contractors, and investors, NLR and its partners are helping chart a credible pathway toward widespread commercialization in the decade ahead.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DESI DR2 Results I: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest

We present the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-alpha (LyA) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the auto-correlation of the LyA forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of two larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped LyA absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at $z_{eff} = 2.33$. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in LyA BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios $D_H(z_{eff})/r_d = 8.632 \pm 0.098 \pm 0.026$ and $D_M(z_{eff})/r_d = 38.99 \pm 0.52 \pm 0.12$, where $D_H = c/H(z)$ is the Hubble distance, $D_M$ is the transverse comoving distance, $r_d$ is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The DEHVILS survey overview and initial data release: high-quality near-infrared Type Ia supernova light curves at low redshift

ABSTRACT While the sample of optical Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves (LCs) usable for cosmological parameter measurements surpasses 2000, the sample of published, cosmologically viable near-infrared (NIR) SN Ia LCs, which have been shown to be good ‘standard candles,’ is still ≲ 200. Here, we present high-quality NIR LCs for 83 SNe Ia ranging from 0.002 < z < 0.09 as a part of the Dark Energy, H0, and peculiar Velocities using Infrared Light from Supernovae (DEHVILS) survey. Observations are taken using UKIRT’s WFCAM, where the median depth of the images is 20.7, 20.1, and 19.3 mag (Vega) for Y, J, and H-bands, respectively. The median number of epochs per SN Ia is 18 for all three bands (Y,J, and H) combined and 6 for each band individually. We fit 47 SN Ia LCs that pass strict quality cuts using three LC models, SALT3, snoopy, and B ayeSN and find scatter on the Hubble diagram to be comparable to or better than scatter from optical-only fits in the literature. Fitting NIR-only LCs, we obtain standard deviations ranging from 0.128 to 0.135 mag. Additionally, we present a refined calibration method for transforming 2MASS magnitudes to WFCAM magnitudes using HST CALSPEC stars that results in a 0.03 mag shift in the WFCAM Y-band magnitudes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Nonlocal correlations in iron pnictides and chalcogenides

Deviations of low-energy electronic structurse of iron-based superconductors from density-functional-theory predictions have been parametrized in terms of band- and orbital-dependent mass renormalizations and energy shifts. The former have typically been described in terms of a local self-energy within the framework of dynamical mean field theory, while the latter appears to require nonlocal effects due to interband scattering. By calculating the renormalized band structure in both random phase approximation (RPA) and the two-particle self-consistent approximation (TPSC), we show that correlations in pnictide systems like LaFeAsO and LiFeAs can be described rather well by a nonlocal self-energy. In particular, Fermi pocket shrinkage as seen in experiments occurs due to repulsive interband finite-energy scattering. For the canonical iron chalcogenide system FeSe in its bulk tetragonal phase, the situation is, however, more complex since even including momentum-dependent band renormalizations cannot explain experimental findings. We propose that the nearest-neighbor Coulomb interaction may play an important role in band-structure renormalization in FeSe. Finally, we further compare our evaluations of nonlocal quasiparticle scattering lifetime within RPA and TPSC with experimental data for LiFeAs.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Data-scientific Noise-removal Method for Efficient Submillimeter Spectroscopy With Single-dish Telescopes

For submillimeter spectroscopy with ground-based single-dish telescopes, removing the noise contribution from the Earth’s atmosphere and the instrument is essential. For this purpose, here we propose a new method based on a data-scientific approach. The key technique is statistical matrix decomposition that automatically separates the signals of astronomical emission lines from the drift noise components in the fast-sampled (1–10 Hz) time-series spectra obtained by a position-switching (PSW) observation. Because the proposed method does not apply subtraction between two sets of noisy data (i.e., on-source and off-source spectra), it improves the observation sensitivity by a factor of √2. It also reduces artificial signals such as baseline ripples on a spectrum, which may also help to improve the effective sensitivity. We demonstrate this improvement by using the spectroscopic data of emission lines toward a high-redshift galaxy observed with a 2 mm receiver on the 50 m Large Millimeter Telescope. Since the proposed method is carried out offline and no additional measurements are required, it offers an instant improvement on the spectra reduced so far with the conventional method. It also enables efficient deep spectroscopy driven by the future 50 m class large submillimeter single-dish telescopes, where fast PSW observations by mechanical antenna or mirror drive are difficult to achieve.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Deep neural operators can predict the real-time response of floating offshore structures under irregular waves

The use of neural operators in a digital twin model of an offshore floating structure holds the potential for a significant shift in the prediction of structural responses and health monitoring, offering valuable real-time control insights. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of three neural operators, namely the deep operator network (DeepONet), the Fourier neural operator (FNO), and the Wavelet neural operator (WNO), to accurately capture the responses of a floating structure under six different sea state codes (3 − 8) based on the wave characteristics described by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). To further enhance the accuracy of the vanilla architecture of the neural operators, novel extensions, such as wavelet-DeepONet and self-adaptive WNO, are proposed in this paper. The results demonstrate that these high-precision neural operators can deliver structural responses more efficiently, up to two orders of magnitude faster than a dynamic analysis using conventional numerical solvers. Additionally, compared to gated recurrent units (GRUs), a commonly used recurrent neural network for time-series estimation, neural operators are both more accurate and efficient, especially in situations with limited data availability. Taken together, our study shows that FNO outperforms all other operators for approximating the mapping of one input functional space to the output space as well as for responses that have small bandwidth of the frequency spectrum. Conversely, DeepONet, with historical states, proves most accurate in learning the mapping of multiple input functions to the output space and capturing responses within a broad frequency spectrum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spin waves excitation at micron-sized, anisotropy modified regions in amorphous Fe 80 B 20 stripes: Local properties and inter-regions coupling

We report on the measurement of the local magnetization dynamics occurring, at units of GHz, in large aspect ratio stripes lithographed from reduced damping amorphous Fe 80 B 20 films. The stripes were submitted to local anisotropy modifications by micrometric beam synchrotron X-ray irradiation. Our results include data on the dispersion relationships and group velocities corresponding to spin waves excited at both the non-irradiated and the irradiated regions. Whereas in the former case we observed standing spin waves with transverse-to-the stripe axis wave vector, in the latter one, for which the wave vector of the spin waves was parallel-to-the stripe axis, propagating spin waves were excited. In both regions, we measured the effective propagation distance of the spin waves, which resulted to be independent of the wave vector orientation. In the spin waves excited at the irradiated region, we also measured the decay time and effective damping coefficient, which was in good agreement with previously reported values obtained from FMR measurements in amorphous Fe 80 B 20 continuous films. We show that the interaction of the non-irradiated and irradiated zones results, at the stripe transverse saturation remanence and under an exciting field frequency of 4 GHz, in the introduction of a π phase shift between the standing spin waves excited at both sides of the irradiated region. This result opens the possibility of using the local, transverse to the stripe axis, magnetic anisotropy easy axis induced by the X-ray irradiation as a crucial constituent of a zero-applied field spin wave phase-shifter.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Zeta potential measurements of SiO 2 and TiO 2 particles in anionic and cationic surfactant solutions

Zeta potential measurements can provide valuable insights into colloidal stability and may reflect changes in the electrochemical double layer that influence electrocatalysis. In this study, we used zeta potential measurements to monitor and investigate the adsorption behavior of anionic sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), cationic dodecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (DTAB), and cationic cetyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB) surfactants on SiO 2 and TiO 2 particles in DI water. The zeta potentials of SiO 2 and TiO 2 particles were measured as a function of particle concentration in 1.0 mM, 5.0 mM, and 10.0 mM surfactant solutions. Results indicate that there is no significant adsorption of DS - ions on SiO 2 particles across all SDS concentrations investigated in this study. The zeta potential of TiO 2 particles shifts from negative to positive as particle concentration increases at 1.0 mM SDS, indicating a decrease in DS - ions adsorption per TiO 2 particle. Adsorption plateaus at 5.0 mM SDS for all TiO 2 concentrations studied. In contrast, DTA + and CTA + ions showed clear adsorption on SiO 2 particles, but DTA + exhibited no apparent adsorption on TiO 2 particles. Interestingly, CTA + adsorption on TiO 2 was only evident at higher surfactant concentrations. This study presents a systematic investigation of zeta potential behavior as a function of particle and surfactant concentration, highlighting adsorption saturation and electrostatic reversal. Unlike prior work that was limited to single particle concentration measurements, our approach reveals how surfactant adsorption per particle decreases with increasing surface area. Despite the structural similarity between DTAB and CTAB, this study captured the different adsorption behaviors of both surfactants on SiO 2 and TiO 2 , emphasizing the role of the overall structure of the surfactant on surfactant adsorption behavior. These insights refine the interpretation of zeta potential data and advance understanding of surfactant adsorption on oxide particles. The insight provided in this study about surfactant adsorption on SiO 2 and TiO 2 particles could have important implications for the design of more effective colloidal and catalytic systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Insights into the Complexation of Actinides by Diethylenetriaminepentaacetic Acid from Characterization of the Americium(III) Complex

Diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) is a frequently used chelator in the nuclear and medical industries, especially for the complexation of trivalent actinides. However, structural data on these complexes in the solid-state have long remained elusive. Herein, a detailed structural analysis of the presented crystal structures of [C(NH 2 ) 3 ] 4 [Nd(DTPA)] 2 · n H 2 O and [C(NH 2 ) 3 ] 4 [Am(DTPA)] 2 · n H 2 O, where [C(NH 2 ) 3 ] + is guanidinium, details the subtle differences in the Lewis acidity between a lanthanide/actinide pair of similar ionic sizes. Contractions in nitrogen–metal bond lengths between neodymium(III) and americium(III) were observed, while the metal–oxygen bonds remained relatively consistent, highlighting the marginal favorability for actinide complexation over the lanthanides with moderately soft N-donors. Spectroscopic analysis shows significant splitting of many transitions and relatively strong electronic interactions with traditionally low-intensity transitions in the americium complex, as is demonstrated in the 7 F 0 → 7 F 5 transitions. Pressure-induced spectroscopic analysis showed surprisingly little effect on the americium complex, with 5 f →5 f transitions either not shifting or marginally shifting from 2 to 3 nm at 11.93 ± 0.06 GPa─atypical of a soft, N-donor americium complex under pressure. Finally, large voids occupied by water molecules in between the complexes within the crystal structure may be responsible for the lack of pressure response in the 5 f →5 f transitions.

absorption spectroscopy↗

TOI-1231 b: A Temperate, Neptune-sized Planet Transiting the Nearby M3 Dwarf NLTT 24399

We report the discovery of a transiting, temperate, Neptune-sized exoplanet orbiting the nearby (d = 27.5 pc), M3V star TOI-1231 (NLTT 24399, L 248-27, 2MASS J10265947-5228099). The planet was detected using photometric data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite and followed up with observations from the Las Cumbres Observatory and the Antarctica Search for Transiting ExoPlanets program. Combining the photometric data sets, we find that the newly discovered planet has a radius of 3.65{sub −0.15}{sup +0.16} R{sub ⊕} and an orbital period of 24.246 days. Radial velocity measurements obtained with the Planet Finder Spectrograph on the Magellan Clay telescope confirm the existence of the planet and lead to a mass measurement of 15.5 ± 3.3 M {sub ⊕}. With an equilibrium temperature of just 330 K, TOI-1231 b is one of the coolest small planets accessible for atmospheric studies thus far, and its host star’s bright near-infrared brightness (J = 8.88, K {sub s} = 8.07) makes it an exciting target for the Hubble Space Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope. Future atmospheric observations would enable the first comparative planetology efforts in the 250–350 K temperature regime via comparisons with K2-18 b. Furthermore, TOI-1231's high systemic radial velocity (70.5 km s{sup −1}) may allow for the detection of low-velocity hydrogen atoms escaping the planet by Doppler, shifting the H i Lyα stellar emission away from the geocoronal and interstellar medium absorption features.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗