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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

SUPERGRANULATION AS THE LARGEST BUOYANTLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE OF THE SUN

The origin of solar supergranulation remains a mystery. Unlike granulation, the size of which is comparable to both the thickness of the radiative boundary layer and local scale-height in the photosphere, supergranulation does not reflect any obvious length scale of the solar convection zone. Moreover, recent observations of flows in the photosphere using Doppler imaging or correlation or feature tracking show a monotonic decrease in horizontal flow power at scales larger than supergranulation. Both local area and global spherical shell simulations of solar convection by contrast show the opposite, an increase in horizontal flow amplitudes to a low wavenumber. We examine these disparities and investigate how the solar supergranulation may arise as a consequence of nonlocal heat transport by cool diving plumes. Using three-dimensional anelastic simulations with surface driving, we show that the kinetic energy of the largest convective scales in the upper layers of a stratified domain reflects the depth of transition from strong buoyant driving to adiabatic stratification below caused by the dilution of the granular downflows. This depth is quite shallow because of the rapid increase of the mean density below the photosphere. We interpret the observed monotonic decrease in solar convective power at scales larger than supergranulation to be a consequence of this rapid transition, with the supergranular scale the largest buoyantly driven mode of convection in the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

ON THE MISALIGNMENT BETWEEN CHROMOSPHERIC FEATURES AND THE MAGNETIC FIELD ON THE SUN

Observations of the upper chromosphere show an enormous amount of intricate fine structure. Much of this comes in the form of linear features, which are most often assumed to be well aligned with the direction of the magnetic field in the low plasma β regime that is thought to dominate the upper chromosphere. We use advanced radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulations, including the effects of ion-neutral interactions (using the generalized Ohm’s law) in the partially ionized chromosphere, to show that the magnetic field is often not well aligned with chromospheric features. This occurs where the ambipolar diffusion is large, i.e., ions and neutral populations decouple as the ion-neutral collision frequency drops, allowing the field to slip through the neutral population; where currents perpendicular to the field are strong; and where thermodynamic timescales are longer than or similar to those of ambipolar diffusion. We find this often happens in dynamic spicule or fibril-like features at the top of the chromosphere. This has important consequences for field extrapolation methods, which increasingly use such upper chromospheric features to help constrain the chromospheric magnetic field: our results invalidate the underlying assumption that these features are aligned with the field. In addition, our results cast doubt on results from 1D hydrodynamic models, which assume that plasma remains on the same field lines. Finally, our simulations show that ambipolar diffusion significantly alters the amount of free energy available in the coronal part of our simulated volume, which is likely to have consequences for studies of flare initiation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Critical Balance and Firehose Instability in an Expanding, Turbulent, Collisionless Plasma

Abstract Using a hybrid-kinetic particle-in-cell simulation, we study the evolution of an expanding, collisionless, magnetized plasma in which strong Alfvénic turbulence is persistently driven. Temperature anisotropy generated adiabatically by the plasma expansion (and consequent decrease in the mean magnetic-field strength) gradually reduces the effective elasticity of the field lines, causing reductions in the linear frequency and residual energy of the Alfvénic fluctuations. In response, these fluctuations modify their interactions and spatial anisotropy to maintain a scale-by-scale “critical balance” between their characteristic linear and nonlinear frequencies. Eventually the plasma becomes unstable to kinetic firehose instabilities, which excite rapidly growing magnetic fluctuations at ion-Larmor scales. The consequent pitch-angle scattering of particles maintains the temperature anisotropy near marginal stability, even as the turbulent plasma continues to expand. The resulting evolution of parallel and perpendicular temperatures does not satisfy double-adiabatic conservation laws, but is described accurately by a simple model that includes anomalous scattering. Our results have implications for understanding the complex interplay between macro- and microscale physics in various hot, dilute, astrophysical plasmas, and offer predictions concerning power spectra, residual energy, ion-Larmor-scale spectral breaks, and non-Maxwellian features in ion distribution functions that may be tested by measurements taken in high-beta regions of the solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cybersecurity Resiliency of Marine Renewable Energy Systems-Part 1: Identifying Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities and Determining Risk

Technology innovation, market demand, and the potential impacts of a changing climate are driving the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry to develop market-ready systems to provide low-carbon electricity for emerging, off-grid markets. The advanced operational and information technology devices used in MRE systems create a pathway for a cyber threat actor to gain unauthorized access to data or disrupt operation. To improve the resiliency of MRE systems as a predictable, affordable, and reliable source of energy from oceans and rivers, guidance was developed for an end users' organization that describes a framework for identifying and managing cybersecurity risk. The development of the cybersecurity guidance is based on standards described in the Risk Management Framework and Cybersecurity Framework developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This paper is the first of a two-part series that describes an approach to determine the cybersecurity risk for MRE systems based on assessing potential cyber threats, identifying vulnerabilities (people, processes, and technology, including physical and operational environment), and evaluating the consequences a cyberattack would have on operation of the MRE system and impact on end users' mission and business objectives. MRE developers and stakeholders can use this approach to assess their current cybersecurity risk posture to incorporate appropriate cybersecurity controls to reduce the consequences and impacts from a cyberattack on MRE systems. This approach can be refined further as MRE systems are deployed and operational configurations are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Understanding Biomass Feedstock Variability

If the singular goal of biomass logistics and the design of biomass feedstock supply systems is to reduce the per-ton supply cost of biomass, these systems may very well develop with ultimate unintended consequences of highly variable and reduced quality biomass feedstocks. This paper demonstrates that, due to inherent species variabilities, production conditions and differing harvest, collection and storage practices, this is a very real scenario that biomass producers and suppliers as well as conversion developers should be aware of. Biomass feedstock attributes of ash, carbohydrates, moisture and particle morphology will be discussed. We will also discuss specifications for these attributes, inherent variability of these attributes in biomass feedstocks, and approaches and solutions for reducing variability for improving feedstock quality.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Feedforward Control of Fuel Distribution on Advanced Dual-Fuel Engines with Varying Intake Valve Closing Timings

This study examines the dynamics and control of an engine operated with late intake valve closure (LIVC) timings in a dual-fuel combustion mode. The engine features a fuel delivery system in which diesel is direct-injected and natural gas is port-injected. Despite the benefits of LIVC and dual-fuel strategy, combining these two techniques resulted in efficiency losses due to the variability of the combustion process across cylinders. The difference in power production across cylinders ranges from 9% at an IVC of 570°ATDC* to 38% at an IVC of 620 °ATDC and indicates an increasingly uneven fuel distribution as the intake valve remains open longer in the compression stroke. This paper describes an approach for controlling the amount of fuel injected into each cylinders’ port of an inline six- cylinder heavy-duty dual-fuel engine to minimize the variations in fuel distribution across cylinder. Since measuring the actual fuel reaching each cylinder is not a practical option on stock engines, this study aimed to produce a feedforward control technique. Using a model developed on an engine simulation software, the optimal fuel injection amounts at each cylinder port across 125 operating conditions (consisting of sweeps of five engine speeds, five engine loads, and five IVC timings) were determined by using PI controllers that adjust the amount of fuel injected at each port based on the amount of fuel reaching the cylinders. The results from the PI controller were expressed as a function of the operating condition (engine speed, engine load, and IVC timing); and consequently, could be reproduced without relying on a measurement of the amount of fuel reaching each cylinder. The feedforward control strategy, unlike the PI controller, is easily implementable on a stock engine and significantly reduces the variations in fuel distribution across cylinders.

Kassa, Mateos↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Charging Flexibility of Shared Automated Electric Vehicle Fleets

The combined anticipated trends of vehicle sharing (ride-hailing), automated control, and powertrain electrification are poised to disrupt the current paradigm of predominately owner-driven gasoline vehicles with low levels of utilization. Shared, automated, electric vehicle (SAEV) fleets offer the potential for lower cost and emissions and have garnered significant interest among the research community. While promising, unmanaged operation of these fleets may lead to unintended negative consequences. One potentially unintended consequence is a high quantity of SAEVs charging during peak demand hours on the electric grid, potentially increasing the required generation capacity. This research explores the flexibility associated with charging loads demanded by SAEV fleets in response to servicing personal mobility travel demands. Travel demand is synthesized in four major United States metropolitan areas: Detroit, MI; Austin, TX; Washington, DC; and Miami, FL. In each of these four cities, SAEV simulations are performed using local projected electricity prices from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) for a handful of supply side scenarios. A coordinated charging model is introduced that seeks to reduce fleet charging costs in response to time-varying electricity prices and increasing shares of personal trip demand served (between 1% and 25% of all metro trips served by the SAEV fleet). Simulation results are presented across various scenarios assuming fleetwide coordination to minimize charging energy costs while constrained by offering adequate mobility service to fleet customers. The results indicate that the SAEV charging load is highly flexible; energy costs were shown to reduce between 13% and 46% across a wide range of simulated scenarios. In addition, these savings were realized without detrimentally impacting the fleet’s ability to service trips.

autonomous vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protection Against Graph-Based False Data Injection Attacks on Power Systems

Graph signal processing (GSP) has emerged as a powerful tool for practical network applications, including power system monitoring. By representing power system voltages as smooth graph signals, recent research has focused on developing GSP-based methods for state estimation, attack detection, and topology identification. Included, efficient methods have been developed for detecting false data injection (FDI) attacks, which until now were perceived as non-smooth with respect to the graph Laplacian matrix. Consequently, these methods may not be effective against smooth FDI attacks. In this paper, we propose a graph FDI (GFDI) attack that minimizes the Laplacian-based graph total variation (TV) under practical constraints. In addition, we develop a low-complexity algorithm that solves the non-convex GDFI attack optimization problem using ell_1-norm relaxation, the projected gradient descent (PGD) algorithm, and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We then propose a protection scheme that identifies the minimal set of measurements necessary to constrain the GFDI output to high graph TV, thereby enabling its detection by existing GSP-based detectors. Our numerical simulations on the IEEE-57 bus test case reveal the potential threat posed by well-designed GSP-based FDI attacks. Moreover, we demonstrate that integrating the proposed protection design with GSP-based detection can lead to significant hardware cost savings compared to previous designs of protection methods against FDI attacks.

Morgenstern, Gal↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalies of global symmetries on the lattice

't Hooft anomalies of global symmetries play a fundamental role in quantum many-body systems and quantum field theory (QFT). In this paper, we make a systematic analysis of lattice anomalies - the analog of 't Hooft anomalies in lattice systems - for which we give a precise definition. Crucially, a lattice anomaly is not a feature of a specific Hamiltonian, but rather is a topological invariant of the symmetry action. The controlled setting of lattice systems allows for a systematic and rigorous treatment of lattice anomalies, shorn of the technical challenges of QFT. We find that lattice anomalies reproduce the expected properties of QFT anomalies in many ways, but also have crucial differences. In particular, lattice anomalies and QFT anomalies are not, contrary to a common expectation, in one-to-one correspondence, and there can be non-trivial anomalies on the lattice that are infrared (IR) trivial: they admit symmetric trivial gapped ground states, and map to trivial QFT anomalies at low energies. Nevertheless, we show that lattice anomalies (including IR-trivial ones) have a number of interesting consequences in their own right, including connections to commuting projector models, phases of many-body localized (MBL) systems, and quantum cellular automata (QCA). We make substantial progress on the classification of lattice anomalies and develop several theoretical tools to characterize their consequences on symmetric Hamiltonians. Our work places symmetries of quantum many-body lattice systems into a unified theoretical framework and may also suggest new perspectives on symmetries in QFT.

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks (cond-mat.d↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Production by Time-Varying Dark Energy and the End of Cosmic Expansion

We consider various possible consequences of time-varying dark energy due to a quintessence scalar field whose energy density is partially converted to particles as the field evolves down its potential. This particle production acts as a source of thermal friction on the field that can make it difficult to distinguish whether dark energy is due to a radiating field rolling down a steep potential, a purely self-interacting field moving down a flatter potential, or a cosmological constant. By reducing the acceleration of the scalar field, thermal friction increases the amount of accelerated expansion and can cause a sizable bump in the quintessence equation of state. We take special interest in the case where a steep potential rapidly changes from positive to negative as the field evolves, resulting in the end of cosmic expansion and the beginning of contraction. Even in this case, we find that thermal friction lengthens the period of accelerated expansion and consequently delays the end of cosmic expansion, making it challenging to detect the impending transition to contraction using conventional cosmological tests. However, particle production can also provide alternative avenues for detection by generating a background of thermal dark radiation, partly comprised of neutrinos or other particles, whose energy density exceeds the remnant photon energy density.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2018

Data from: Crop rotational diversity enhances belowground communities and functions in an agroecosystem

Biodiversity loss, an important consequence of agricultural intensification, can lead to reductions in agroecosystem functions and services. Increasing crop diversity through rotation may alleviate these negative consequences by restoring positive aboveground–belowground interactions. Positive impacts of aboveground biodiversity on belowground communities and processes have primarily been observed in natural systems. Here, we test for the effects of increased diversity in an agroecosystem, where plant diversity is increased over time through crop rotation. As crop diversity increased from one to five species, distinct soil microbial communities were related to increases in soil aggregation, organic carbon, total nitrogen, microbial activity and decreases in the carbon-to-nitrogen acquiring enzyme activity ratio. This study indicates positive biodiversity–function relationships in agroecosystems, driven by interactions between rotational and microbial diversity. By increasing the quantity, quality and chemical diversity of residues, high diversity rotations can sustain soil biological communities, with positive effects on soil organic matter and soil fertility.

Tiemann, L. K.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Viscous organic aerosol particles in the upper troposphere: diffusivity-controlled water uptake and ice nucleation?

Here, new measurements of water diffusion in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) material produced by oxidation of α-pinene and in a number of organic/inorganic model mixtures (3-methylbutane-1,2,3-tricarboxylic acid (3-MBTCA), levoglucosan, levoglucosan/NH 4 HSO 4 , raffinose) are presented. These indicate that water diffusion coefficients are determined by several properties of the aerosol substance and cannot be inferred from the glass transition temperature or bouncing properties. Our results suggest that water diffusion in SOA particles is faster than often assumed and imposes no significant kinetic limitation on water uptake and release at temperatures above 220 K. The fast diffusion of water suggests that heterogeneous ice nucleation on a glassy core is very unlikely in these systems. At temperatures below 220 K, model simulations of SOA particles suggest that heterogeneous ice nucleation may occur in the immersion mode on glassy cores which remain embedded in a liquid shell when experiencing fast updraft velocities. The particles absorb significant quantities of water during these updrafts which plasticize their outer layers such that these layers equilibrate readily with the gas phase humidity before the homogeneous ice nucleation threshold is reached. Glass formation is thus unlikely to restrict homogeneous ice nucleation. Only under most extreme conditions near the very high tropical tropopause may the homogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient be reduced as a consequence of slow condensed-phase water diffusion. Since the differences between the behavior limited or non limited by diffusion are small even at the very high tropical tropopause, condensed-phase water diffusivity is unlikely to have significant consequences on the direct climatic effects of SOA particles under tropospheric conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to heavily underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model's low bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ∼ 2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AOD and extinction profiles averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48 % more heating in the atmosphere and 21 % more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to −0.7 K day −1 , which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond differently between Case I and Case II, underlining the importance of determining the exact portion of scattering or absorbing aerosols that lead to the underestimation of aerosol optical depth in the model. In addition, the model results suggest that both the direct radiative effect and rapid thermodynamic responses need to be quantified for understanding aerosol radiative impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar ) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H + ] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10 . We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The quasi-equilibrium framework revisited: analyzing long-term CO 2 enrichment responses in plant–soil models

Abstract. Elevated carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) can increase plant growth, but themagnitude of this CO 2 fertilization effect is modified by soilnutrient availability. Predicting how nutrient availability affects plantresponses to elevated CO 2 is a key consideration for ecosystemmodels, and many modeling groups have moved to, or are moving towards,incorporating nutrient limitation in their models. The choice of assumptionsto represent nutrient cycling processes has a major impact on modelpredictions, but it can be difficult to attribute outcomes to specificassumptions in complex ecosystem simulation models. Here we revisit thequasi-equilibrium analytical framework introduced by Comins andMcMurtrie (1993) and explore the consequences of specific model assumptionsfor ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP). We review the literature applying this framework to plant–soilmodels and then analyze the effect of several new assumptions on predictedplant responses to elevated CO 2 . Examination of alternativeassumptions for plant nitrogen uptake showed that a linear function of themineral nitrogen pool or a linear function of the mineral nitrogen pool withan additional saturating function of root biomass yield similar CO 2 responses at longer timescales ( &gt;5 years), suggesting that the addedcomplexity may not be needed when these are the timescales of interest. Incontrast, a saturating function of the mineral nitrogen pool with lineardependency on root biomass yields no soil nutrient feedback on thevery-long-term ( &gt;500 years), near-equilibrium timescale, meaning that oneshould expect the model to predict a full CO 2 fertilization effecton production. Secondly, we show that incorporating a priming effect on slowsoil organic matter decomposition attenuates the nutrient feedback effect onproduction, leading to a strong medium-term (5–50 years) CO 2 response. Models incorporating this priming effect should thus predict astrong and persistent CO 2 fertilization effect over time. Thirdly,we demonstrate that using a “potential NPP” approach to represent nutrientlimitation of growth yields a relatively small CO 2 fertilizationeffect across all timescales. Overall, our results highlight thefact that the quasi-equilibriumanalytical framework is effective for evaluating both the consequences andmechanisms through which different model assumptions affect predictions. Tohelp constrain predictions of the future terrestrial carbon sink, werecommend the use of this framework to analyze likely outcomes of new modelassumptions before introducing them to complex model structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗