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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗

Calculating Interval Uncertainties for Calibration Standards That Drift with Time

Calibrated values of many devices exhibit predictable drift over time. To provide an uncertainty statement valid over the entire calibration interval, one must account for drift. In this article, a method of accounting for drift is proposed based on guidance in the Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. An additional uncertainty term is computed using a linear regression of historical measurement data, which is included along with the time-of-test uncertainty. This method is evaluated by analyzing its average out-of-tolerance (OOT) rate using a Monte Carlo simulation, which results in the desired 5% average OOT rate when the total uncertainty is expanded to a 95% confidence interval.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Makeup of a Makerspace: The Impact of Stereotyping, Self-Efficacy, and Physical Design on Women’s Interactions with an Academic Makerspace

This paper argues that women are underrepresented in academic makerspaces because these environments often contain masculine-coded equipment and cultural cues that reduce women’s sense of belonging, increase stereotype threat, and lower self-efficacy. It highlights that improving women’s confidence, inclusion, and access to appropriately fitting safety equipment could help increase participation and retention, ultimately allowing makerspaces to benefit from greater diversity and stronger collaboration.

Schauer, Anastasia M. K.↗

Quantifying and Visualizing Uncertainty for Source Localisation in Electrocardiographic Imaging

Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) presents a clinical opportunity to noninvasively understand the sources of arrhythmias for individual patients. To help increase the effectiveness of ECGI, we provide new ways to visualise associated measurement and modelling errors. Here, we study source localisation uncertainty in two steps: First, we perform Monte Carlo simulations of a simple inverse ECGI source localisation model with error sampling to understand the variations in ECGI solutions. Second, we present multiple visualisation techniques, including confidence maps, level-sets, and topology-based visualisations, to better understand uncertainty in source localization. Our approach offers a new way to study uncertainty in the ECGI pipeline.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Laser interference structuring of Cu for adhesive joining of HVAC equipment

Due to potential energy and cost savings benefits, adhesive joining has been recently considered for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. HVAC adhesive bonding requires cost-effective and adequate surface preparations of adherents. Here, this article investigates the use of abrasion, traditional single-beam laser, and a laser-interference technique as surface preparations of copper surfaces. Surface morphology is characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Effective submicrometer peak-to-valley structuring with a periodicity of ∼2.7μ⁢m was demonstrated for laser-interference processing. Single-lap shear tests were conducted for 89 joints made with bondline thicknesses of 0.15 and 0.3 mm. Data on process variables and measured variables included open-time, bond length, maximum load, displacement at failure, shear lap strength, and failure mode. A statistical analysis was conducted on each lot to determine the lower limit with 95% confidence intervals for displacements at failure and shear lap strengths. A comparison is presented between the properties of laser-structured joints with respect to those prepared by abrasion, which is considered the baseline surface preparation technique. Based on this comparison, one single-beam laser technique and two laser-interference techniques were shown to exhibit vastly superior performance over the joints made with abraded specimens.

Sabau, Adrian S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

Bayesian inference of the incompressibility, skewness and kurtosis of nuclear matter from empirical pressures in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Within the Bayesian statistical framework we infer the incompressibility K 0 , skewness J 0 and kurtosis Z 0 parameters of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) at its saturation density ρ 0 using the constraining bands on the pressure in cold SNM in the density range of 1.3ρ 0 to 4.5ρ 0 from transport model analyses of kaon production and nuclear collective flow in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. As the default option assuming the K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 have Gaussian prior probability distribution functions (PDFs) with the means and variances of 235±30, -200±200 and -146±1728 MeV, their posterior most probable values are narrowed down to 192$^{+12}_{-16}$ MeV, -180$^{+100}_{-110}$ MeV and ${\mathrm{200}}_{-250}^{+250}$ at 68% confidence level, respectively. The results are largely independent of the prior PDFs of J 0 and Z 0 used. However, if one adopts the strong belief that the incompressibility K 0 has a uniform prior PDF within its absolute boundary of 220–260 MeV as one can find easily in the literature, the posterior most probable values of K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 shift to ${K}_{0}=22{0}_{-0}^{+6}$ MeV, ${J}_{0}=-39{0}_{-70}^{+60}$ MeV and ${Z}_{0}=60{0}_{-200}^{+200}$ MeV, respectively. While the posterior PDFs of the SNM EOS parameters depend somewhat on the prior PDF of K 0 used, the results from using different prior PDFs are qualitatively consistent. The uncertainties of all three parameters are significantly reduced especially for the J 0 and Z 0 parameters compared to their current values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

nEXO: neutrinoless double beta decay search beyond 10 28 year half-life sensitivity

The nEXO neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay experiment is designed to use a time projection chamber and 5000 kg of isotopically enriched liquid xenon to search for the decay in 136 Xe. Progress in the detector design, paired with higher fidelity in its simulation and an advanced data analysis, based on the one used for the final results of EXO-200, produce a sensitivity prediction that exceeds the half-life of 10 28 years. Specifically, improvements have been made in the understanding of production of scintillation photons and charge as well as of their transport and reconstruction in the detector. The more detailed knowledge of the detector construction has been paired with more assays for trace radioactivity in different materials. In particular, the use of custom electroformed copper is now incorporated in the design, leading to a substantial reduction in backgrounds from the intrinsic radioactivity of detector materials. Furthermore, a number of assumptions from previous sensitivity projections have gained further support from interim work validating the nEXO experiment concept. Together these improvements and updates suggest that the nEXO experiment will reach a half-life sensitivity of 1.35 × 10 28 yr at 90% confidence level in 10 years of data taking, covering the parameter space associated with the inverted neutrino mass ordering, along with a significant portion of the parameter space for the normal ordering scenario, for almost all nuclear matrix elements. Furthermore, the effects of backgrounds deviating from the nominal values used for the projections are also illustrated, concluding that the nEXO design is robust against a number of imperfections of the model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

KATRIN: status and prospects for the neutrino mass and beyond

Abstract The Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino (KATRIN) experiment is designed to measure a high-precision integral spectrum of the endpoint region of T 2 β decay, with the primary goal of probing the absolute mass scale of the neutrino. After a first tritium commissioning campaign in 2018, the experiment has been regularly running since 2019, and in its first two measurement campaigns has already achieved a sub-eV sensitivity. After 1000 days of data-taking, KATRIN’s design sensitivity is 0.2 eV at the 90% confidence level. In this white paper we describe the current status of KATRIN; explore prospects for measuring the neutrino mass and other physics observables, including sterile neutrinos and other beyond-Standard-Model hypotheses; and discuss research-and-development projects that may further improve the KATRIN sensitivity.

beyond standard model↗

Combination of searches for nonresonant Higgs boson pair production in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

This paper presents a combination of searches for the nonresonant production of Higgs boson pairs (HH) in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The dataset was collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC from 2016 to 2018 and corresponds to a total integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . The observed (expected) upper limit on the inclusive HH production cross-section relative to the standard model (SM) prediction is found to be 3.5 (2.5). Assuming all other Higgs boson couplings are equal to their SM values, the Higgs boson trilinear self-coupling modifier κ λ = λ 3 /λ$^{SM}_{3}$ is constrained in the range –1.35 ≤ κ λ ≤ 6.37 at 95% confidence level (CL). Similarly, for the coupling modifier κ 2V , which governs the interactions between two vector bosons and two Higgs bosons, we have excluded κ 2V = 0 at more than five standard deviations for all values of κ λ . At 95% CL, assuming that the other couplings are equal to their SM values, κ 2V is constrained in the range 0.64 ≤ κ 2V ≤ 1.40. This work also investigates HH production in several new physics scenarios, using the Higgs effective field theory (HEFT) framework. The HEFT framework is further exploited to study various ultraviolet complete models with an extended Higgs sector and set constraints on specific parameters. An extrapolation of the results in the expected integrated luminosity following the high-luminosity upgrade of the LHC is also reported.

BSM↗

Particle image velocimetry analysis with simultaneous uncertainty quantification using Bayesian neural networks

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is an effective tool in experimental fluid mechanics for extracting flow fields from images. Recently, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used to perform PIV analysis with accuracy on par with classical methods. Here we extend the use of CNNs to analyze PIV data while providing simultaneous uncertainty quantification on the inferred flow field. The method we apply in this paper is a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) which learns distributions of the CNN weights through variational Bayes. In order to demonstrate the utility of BCNNs for the PIV task, we compare the performance of three distinct BCNN models with simple architectures. The first network estimates flow velocity from image interrogation regions only. Our second model learns to infer velocity from both the image interrogation regions and interrogation region cross-correlation maps. Finally, our best performing network infers velocities from interrogation region cross-correlation maps only. We find that BCNNs using interrogation region cross-correlation maps as inputs perform better than those using interrogation windows only as inputs and discuss reasons why this may be the case. Additionally, we test the best performing BCNN on a full synthetic test image pair and a real image pair from the 1st International PIV Challenge. We show that ~98% of true particle displacements from the full synthetic image pair can be captured within the BCNN's 95% confidence intervals, and that the BCNN's performance on the real image pair is quantitatively similar to that of algorithms tested in the 1st International PIV Challenge. Finally, we show that BCNNs can be generalized to be used with multi-pass PIV algorithms with a moderate loss in accuracy, which may be overcome by future work on finetuning and training schemes. So to our knowledge, this is the first use of Bayesian neural networks to perform PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Results from the Alfvén Eigenmode Active Diagnostic during the 2019-2020 JET deuterium campaign

This paper presents results of extensive analysis of mode excitation observed during the operation of the Alfvén Eigenmode Active Diagnostic (AEAD) in the JET tokamak during the 2019-2020 deuterium campaign. Here, six of eight toroidally spaced antennas, each with independent power and phasing, were successful in actively exciting stable MHD modes in 479 plasmas. In total, magnetic resonances were detected with up to fourteen fast magnetic probes. In this work, we present the calculations of resonant frequencies $f_0$, damping rates γ < 0, and toroidal mode numbers $\textit{n}$, spanning the parameter ranges $f_0$ ≈ 30–250 kHz, –γ ≈ 0–13 kHz, and $\vert n \vert \leq {30}$. In general, good agreement is seen between the resonant and the calculated toroidal Alfvén Eigenmode frequencies, and between the toroidal mode numbers applied by the AEAD and estimated of the excited resonances. We note several trends in the database: the probability of resonance detection decreases with plasma current and external heating power; the normalized damping rate increases with edge safety factor but decreases with external heating. These results provide key information to prepare future experimental campaigns and to better understand the physics of excitation and damping of Alfvén Eigenmodes in the presence of alpha particles during the upcoming DT campaign, thereby extrapolating with confidence to future tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The effect of curvature induced broken potential vorticity conservation on drift wave turbulences

Abstract The correlation theory of turbulence suppression (Zhang and Mahajan 1993 Phys. Fluids B5 2000) by velocity shear was constructed by invoking the ansatz of potential vorticity conservation (PVC) that holds for relatively simple (slab) models of drift wave turbulence. It is, therefore, surprising that a detailed modern simulation of the H mode pedestal, using the gyrokinetic code GENE (Hatch et al 2018 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 60 084003), found ‘striking agreement’ with the predictions of the analytic model. To understand the reasons for this remarkable agreement, an extended theory that contains finite (magnetic) curvature, and which does not conserve potential vorticity, is developed and ‘solved’ by calculating an inhomogeneous Green function reflecting the fact that the new system has a potential vorticity source. It is, then, demonstrated that the effect of the broken PVC is insignificant for the normal operation parameters in tokamaks; the correction due to curvature is at the order of 2 L 0 / R , where L 0 is the scale length of the local gradient and R is the major radius. The excellent agreement between simulation and slab model 1993 theory is therefore not accidental; the latter can be applied with confidence to the tokamak pedestal.

Physics↗

Analysing the effects of heating and gas puffing in Proto-MPEX helicon and auxiliary heated plasmas

The Material Plasma Exposure Experiment (MPEX) is being constructed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to investigate critical fusion reactor issues, such as plasma–material interactions (PMIs) under reactor-relevant conditions and time scales. The linear device Proto-MPEX was used as a test bed to address anticipated research and development issues associated with heating scenarios and establish the physics basis for MPEX. The SOLPS-ITER code suite has been applied to understand plasma and neutral transport in Proto-MPEX and to increase confidence in predictive simulations for MPEX. Coupling between COMSOL and SOLPS is performed to implement a 2D electron heating profile of the helicon source. The simulations show reasonable agreement with the experimental data for plasma with helicon and auxiliary electron cyclotron heating (ECH). Both Bohm and constant diffusion (D$_\perp$: 0.5 m 2 s –1 and $\chi_\perp$: 1 m 2 s –1 ) simulations show similar levels of agreement with respect to the sparse experimental data available, assuming a few per cent impurity concentration. ECH significantly increases the target electron temperature, however, the target electron density is reduced compared to helicon-only heated plasmas due to an increase in flow velocity and radial losses. The simulations show that further increasing the ECH power results in an increase in the target electron density due to increased recycling flux and ionization. The results indicate that ECH significantly enhances the target heat flux, with ECH power of 50 kW increasing the target heat flux from 0.4 to 17 MW m –2 . It is found that a small amount of gas puffing (GP) near the target plate can further increase the target heat fluxes at the higher ECH power cases, but the target heat flux is reduced at higher GP conditions due to a significant reduction in electron temperature via radiation. ECH and GP scenarios can generate a higher target flux, facilitating improved PMI studies with more reactor-relevant plasma conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Observation of $\gamma\gamma\to\tau\tau$ in proton-proton collisions and limits on the anomalous electromagnetic moments of the $\tau$ lepton

The production of a pair of τ leptons via photon–photon fusion, ${{\unicode{x03B3}\unicode{x03B3}\to\unicode{x03C4}\unicode{x03C4}}}$, is observed for the first time in proton–proton collisions, with a significance of 5.3 standard deviations. This observation is based on a data set recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events with a pair of τ leptons produced via photon–photon fusion are selected by requiring them to be back-to-back in the azimuthal direction and to have a minimum number of charged hadrons associated with their production vertex. The τ leptons are reconstructed in their leptonic and hadronic decay modes. The measured fiducial cross section of ${{\unicode{x03B3}\unicode{x03B3}\to\unicode{x03C4}\unicode{x03C4}}}$ is $\sigma^\text{fid}_\text{obs} = 12.4 ^{+3.8}_{-3.1}\,\textrm{fb}$. Constraints are set on the contributions to the anomalous magnetic moment (${a_{\unicode{x03C4}}}$) and electric dipole moments (${d_{\unicode{x03C4}}}$) of the τ lepton originating from potential effects of new physics on the $\unicode{x03B3}\unicode{x03C4}\unicode{x03C4}$ vertex: ${a_{\unicode{x03C4}}} = 0.0009_{-0.0031}^{+0.0032}$ and $|{d_{\unicode{x03C4}}}| \lt 2.9\times 10^{-17}\,{e}\,\textrm{cm}$ (95% confidence level), consistent with the standard model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗

Search for heavy pseudoscalar and scalar bosons decaying to a top quark pair in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for pseudoscalar or scalar bosons decaying to a top quark pair ($\textrm{t}$$\bar{\textrm{t}}$) in final states with one or two charged leptons is presented. The analyzed proton–proton collision data was recorded at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 . The invariant mass $m_{{\textrm{t}}{\bar{\textrm{t}}}}$ of the reconstructed $\textrm{t}$$\bar{\textrm{t}}$ system and variables sensitive to its spin and parity are used to discriminate against the standard model background. Interference between pseudoscalar or scalar boson production and the standard model $\textrm{t}$$\bar{\textrm{t}}$ continuum is included, leading to peak-dip structures in the $m_{{\textrm{t}}{\bar{\textrm{t}}}}$ distribution. An excess of the data above the background prediction, based on perturbative quantum chromodynamics (QCD) calculations, is observed near the kinematic $\textrm{t}$$\bar{\textrm{t}}$ production threshold, while good agreement is found for high $m_{{\textrm{t}}{\bar{\textrm{t}}}}$. The data are consistent with the background prediction if the contribution from a simplified model of a color-singlet $^1\textrm{S}^{|1|}_0$ ${{\textrm{t}}{\bar{\textrm{t}}}}$ quasi-bound state $η_{\textrm{t}}$, inspired by nonrelativistic QCD, is added. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the coupling between the pseudoscalar or scalar bosons and the top quark for boson masses in the range 365–1000 GeV, relative widths between 0.5% and 25%, and two background scenarios with or without $η_{\textrm{t}}$ contribution.

CMS↗

Search for decays of the Higgs boson into pair-produced pseudoscalar particles decaying into τ+τ−τ+τ− using pp collisions at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for a pair of low-mass pseudoscalars a that promptly decay into τ-leptons is presented using 140 fb −1 of proton–proton collision data at 13 TeV centre-of-mass energy recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The result is used to place constraints on exotic decays of the Higgs boson into four τ-leptons, H→aa→τ+τ−τ+τ−. This search focuses on events with either one or two τ-leptons decaying into hadrons and neutrinos, and the remaining three or two τ-leptons decaying into either electron or muon and neutrinos. No significant excess is observed above the expected Standard Model background and upper limits at the 95% confidence level on B(H→aa→τ+τ−τ+τ−) are set ranging from 0.06 to 0.23, depending on the mass ma ranging from 15 to 60 GeV.

Source record↗

Design and physics basis for the upcoming DIII-D SAS-VW campaign to quantify tungsten leakage and transport in a new slot divertor geometry

A set of experiments are planned to exploit the high SOL collisionality enabled by a tightly baffled slot divertor geometry to suppress tungsten leakage in DIII-D. A toroidal row of graphite tiles from the Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertor is being coated with 10–15 μ m of tungsten. New spectroscopic viewing chords with in-vacuo optics will measure the W gross erosion source from the divertor surface with high spatial and temporal resolution. In parallel, the bottom of the SAS divertor is changed from a flat to a ‘V’ shape. New SOLPS-ITER/DIVIMP simulations conducted with drifts using the planned ‘V’ shape predict a substantial reduction in W sourcing and SOL accumulation in either B × ∇B direction relative to either the old SAS divertor shape or the open, lower divertor. Dedicated studies are planned to carefully characterize the level of W sourcing, leakage, and scrape-off-layer (SOL) accumulation in DIII-D over a wide range of plasma scenarios. Various actuators will be assessed for their efficacy in further reducing high-Z impurity sources and leakage from the slot divertor geometry. Finally, this coupled code-experiment validation effort will be used to stress-test physics models and build confidence in extrapolations to advanced, high-Z divertor geometries for next-step devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗