Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “component performance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,549 records · Page 86

Sensitivity and Effective Parameterization of a Multi-Scale Model of Proton-Exchange-Membrane Water Electrolysis

The development of proton-exchange-membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) is crucial to establishing a green-hydrogen infrastructure. Active research in hydrogen technologies is focused on minimizing costs, improving efficiency, and mitigating safety risks. In this study, sensitivity analyses were performed using a physics-based model and used to identify critical parameters capable of reducing overpotentials and safety risks. These parameters include operational (i.e. temperature), structural (i.e. thickness of the components), and material properties (i.e. exchange current density). Simulated results suggest that better engineering of the membrane electrode assemblies (MEA) can offset intrinsic limitations. Membrane thickness and conductivity yielded the largest percent change on performance. Gas crossover was observed to be sensitive to diffusion, solubility, and bubble formation. Current density regimes were identified, where each crossover parameter was most influential. MEA parameterization serves as a framework for theoretical PEMWE optimization simulations and input for design criteria for future research targets.

Dizon, A↗

A computational modeling framework for pre-clinical evaluation of cardiac mapping systems

There are a variety of difficulties in evaluating clinical cardiac mapping systems, most notably the inability to record the transmembrane potential throughout the entire heart during patient procedures which prevents the comparison to a relevant “gold standard”. Cardiac mapping systems are comprised of hardware and software elements including sophisticated mathematical algorithms, both of which continue to undergo rapid innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop a computational modeling framework to evaluate the performance of cardiac mapping systems. The framework enables rigorous evaluation of a mapping system’s ability to localize and characterize (i.e., focal or reentrant) arrhythmogenic sources in the heart. The main component of our tool is a library of computer simulations of various dynamic patterns throughout the entire heart in which the type and location of the arrhythmogenic sources are known. Our framework allows for performance evaluation for various electrode configurations, heart geometries, arrhythmias, and electrogram noise levels and involves blind comparison of mapping systems against a “silver standard” comprised of computer simulations in which the precise transmembrane potential patterns throughout the heart are known. A feasibility study was performed using simulations of patterns in the human left atria and three hypothetical virtual catheter electrode arrays. Activation times (AcT) and patterns (AcP) were computed for three virtual electrode arrays: two basket arrays with good and poor contact and one high-resolution grid with uniform spacing. The average root mean squared difference of AcTs of electrograms and those of the nearest endocardial action potential was less than 1 ms and therefore appears to be a poor performance metric. In an effort to standardize performance evaluation of mapping systems a novel performance metric is introduced based on the number of AcPs identified correctly and those considered spurious as well as misclassifications of arrhythmia type; spatial and temporal localization accuracy of correctly identified patterns was also quantified. This approach provides a rigorous quantitative analysis of cardiac mapping system performance. Proof of concept of this computational evaluation framework suggests that it could help safeguard that mapping systems perform as expected as well as provide estimates of system accuracy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Synergy of Liquid-Crystalline Small-Molecule and Polymeric Donors Delivers Uncommon Morphology Evolution and 16.6% Efficiency Organic Photovoltaics

Achieving an ideal morphology is an imperative avenue for enhancing key parameters toward high-performing organic solar cells (OSCs). Among a myriad of morphological-control methods, the strategy of incorporating a third component with structural similarity and crystallinity difference to construct ternary OSCs has emerged as an effective approach to regulate morphology. A nematic liquid-crystalline benzodithiophene terthiophene rhodamine (BTR) molecule, which possesses the same alkylthio-thienyl-substituted benzo moiety but obviously stronger crystallinity compared to classical medium-bandgap polymeric donor PM6, is employed as a third component to construct ternary OSCs based on a PM6:BTR:Y6 system. The doping of BTR (5 wt%) is found to be enough to improve the OSC morphology—significantly enhancing the crystallinity of the photoactive layer while slightly reducing the donor/acceptor phase separation scale simultaneously. Rarely is such a morphology evolution reported. It positively affects the electronic properties of the device—prolongs the carrier lifetime, shortens the photocurrent decay time, facilitates exciton dissociation, charge transport, and collection, and ultimately boosts the power conversion efficiency from 15.7% to 16.6%. This result demonstrates that the successful synergy of liquid-crystalline small-molecule and polymeric donors delicately adjusts the active-layer morphology and refines device performance, which brings vibrancy to the OSC research field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

2023 Real-time Optimization Workflow Status Update

Nuclear integrated energy systems are composed of a diverse set of energy generation sources and exist in dynamic and competitive electricity markets. With the inclusion of thermal energy storage, nuclear power systems can store heat for future use through various processes, such as water desalination or hydrogen generation. This heat storage can be managed in such a way as to economically optimize its usage. By combining real-time price data from the day-ahead and real-time markets with predictive and intelligent models, the charging and discharging of the thermal energy storage may be determined and optimized. This research details an approach through models and systems for the real-time optimization (RTO) of capacity allocation. Virtual models of the energy system and its physics phenomenon and component interactions provide intelligence to verification and prediction of operations. An optimization framework can use data generated from both a set of physical assets as well as the virtual models to predict future performance and create optimization and control workflows. Data warehouse technologies can be used to combine data across models, optimization workflows, market price data, and sensor data to intuitively store various types of data and provide integrations to physical control systems as well as user visualizations. Put together, these components can create a system for the RTO of nuclear integrated energy systems. Various virtual models and bench-scale physical demonstrations have been successfully performed and verified using this system. Larger scale testbeds that include thermal energy storage systems have been identified as future opportunities. A gap analysis that details the steps necessary to reach a physical demonstration at this scale is provided, along with conclusions on the current effort and future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Yet Another NLA Library: T-LAPACK

In recent years, Randomized numerical linear algebra (RandNLA) proved to be more than a theoretical novelty: projects like RandLAPACK demonstrate its practical value across architectures, and projects like RandBLAS build trust in randomization as a tool for high-performance NLA. This BoF considers two main questions. First, what are the pressing issues in software standards and implementation that need to be resolved for RandNLA to become a core component of HPC? Second, how can we mobilize a community effort to make progress on these issues? The BoF will engage the audience to discuss the idea of growing the role of RandNLA in high-performance computing and what it would take to scale from niche prototypes to robust, production-quality software libraries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Material Interactions in Severe Accidents – Benchmarking the MELCOR V2.2 Eutectics Model for a BWR-3 MARK-I Station Blackout: Part I – Single Case Analysis

Here in this analysis, the two material interaction models available in the MELCOR code are benchmarked for a severe accident at a BWR under representative Fukushima Daiichi boundary conditions. This part of the benchmark investigates the impact of each material interaction model on accident progression through a detailed single case analysis. It is found that the eutectics model simulation exhibits more rapid accident progression for the duration of the accident. The slower accident progression exhibited by the interactive materials model simulation, however, allows for a greater degree of core material oxidation and hydrogen generation to occur, as well as elevated core temperatures during the ex-vessel accident phase. The eutectics model simulation exhibits more significant degradation of core components during the late in-vessel accident phase – more debris forms and relocates to the lower plenum before lower head failure. The larger debris bed observed in the eutectics model simulation also reaches higher temperatures, presenting a more significant thermal challenge to the lower head until its failure. At the end of the simulated accident scenario, however, core damage is comparable between both simulations due to significant core degradation that occurs during the ex-vessel phase in the interactive materials model simulation. A key difference between the two models’ performance is the maximum temperatures that can be reached in the core and therefore the maximum ΔT between any two components. When implementing the interactive materials model, users have the option to modify the liquefaction temperature of the ZrO 2 -interactive and UO 2 -interactive materials as a way to mimic early fuel rod failure due to material interactions. Through modification of the liquefaction of high melting point materials with significant mass, users may inadvertently limit maximum core temperatures for fuel, cladding, and debris components.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Investigating the Effects of Chemical Gradients on Performance and Reliability within Perovskite Solar Cells with TOF-SIMS

Time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS), a powerful analytical technique sensitive to all components of perovskite solar cell (PSC) materials, can differentiate between the various organic species within a PSC absorber or a complete device stack. The ability to probe chemical gradients through the depth of a device (both organic and inorganic), with down to 100 nm lateral resolution, can lead to unique insights into the relationships between chemistry in the absorber bulk, at grain boundaries, and at interfaces as well as how they relate to changes in performance and/or stability. In this essay, the technique is described; then, from the literature, several examples of how TOF-SIMS have been used to provide unique insight into PSC absorbers and devices are covered. Finally, the common artifacts that can be introduced if the data are improperly collected, as well as methods to mitigate these artifacts are discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Toward high laser power beam manipulation with nanophotonic materials: evaluating thin film damage performance

Nanophotonic materials enable unprecedented control of light-matter interactions, including the ability to dynamically steer or shape wavefronts. Consequently, nanophotonic systems such as metasurfaces have been touted as promising candidates for free-space optical communications, directed energy and additive manufacturing, which currently rely on slow mechanical scanners or electro-optical components for beam steering and shaping. However, such applications necessitate the ability to support high laser irradiances (> kW/cm 2 ) and systematic studies on the high-power laser damage performance of nanophotonic materials and designs are sparse. Here, we experimentally investigate the pulsed laser-induced damage performance (at λ ∼ 1 µm) of model nanophotonic thin films including gold, indium tin oxide, and refractory materials such as titanium nitride and titanium oxynitride. We also model the spatio-thermal dissipation dynamics upon single-pulse illumination by anchoring experimental laser damage thresholds. Our findings show that gold exhibits the best laser damage resistance, but we argue that alternative materials such as transparent conducting oxides could be optimized to balance the tradeoff between damage resistance and optical tunability, which is critical for the design of thermally robust nanophotonic systems. We also discuss damage mitigation and ruggedization strategies for future device-scale studies and applications requiring high power beam manipulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

hPIC2: A hardware-accelerated, hybrid particle-in-cell code for dynamic plasma-material interactions

The exascale era of high performance computing promises to bring the field of computational plasma physics ever closer to the goal of accurate multiscale modeling. Such computers will rely on hardware acceleration to offload work to dedicated components, notably general-purpose graphics processing units (GPUs). However, devices from different manufacturers require software to be written with different parallel programming models, greatly increasing the code maintenance burden of applications designed to perform on more than one such device. hPIC2 is a hybrid plasma simulation code developed with the Kokkos performance portability framework to target the architectures that will drive exascale computing for the foreseeable future. As a hybrid simulation code, hPIC2 investigates the simultaneous use of various plasma models on the same domain, at the same time. hPIC2 also optionally couples to RustBCA, which accurately models ion-material interactions using the binary collision approximation (BCA) method. In conclusion, hPIC2 therefore achieves scalable performance on a variety of computing architectures when simulating complex and diverse plasmas, particularly near plasma-material interfaces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Light Water Sustainability Program: Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis

This report describes the interim progress for research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and elsewhere throughout the plant, along with a greater use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human-performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical system theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control and feedback relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. Up to this point, we have employed a Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST) technique to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant that involved the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. Our ongoing analysis is focused on identifying near-term process improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. The latter analyses will employ a second STAMP-derived technique, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). STPA is a useful modeling tool for generating and analyzing actual or potential information control structures. Finally, we have begun modeling plantwide organizational relationships and processes. Organizational system modeling will supplement our CAST and STPA findings and provide a basis for mapping out a plantwide information control architecture. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the initiating event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. We present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system. From our results, we have generated a set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints. These requirements will be further developed over the remainder of our project in collaboration with nuclear industry subject matter experts and specialists in the technical systems under consideration. Additionally, we will continue to pursue the system analyses initiated in the first part of our effort, with a particular emphasis on STPA as the main tool to identify weak or weakening control structures that affect the resilience of organizations and programs. Our intent is to broaden the scope of the analysis from an individual use case to a related set of use cases (e.g., maintenance tasks, compliance tasks) with similar human-system performance challenges. This will enable more generalized findings to refine the Proactive Issue Resolution and IAE models, as well as their system-level requirements and safety constraints. We will use organizational system modeling analyses to supplement STPA findings and model development. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations and an initial draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Developing a new ethylene glycol/H 2 O pretreatment system to achieve efficient enzymatic hydrolysis of sugarcane bagasse cellulose and recover highly active lignin: Countercurrent extraction

Improving pretreatment efficiency is a critical premise in achieving efficient biomass conversion, and obtaining high-performance natural polymers is the guarantee of high-value conversion of biomass. Here, in this study, a new pilot-scale continuous countercurrent pretreatment reaction unit about ethylene glycol-alkali solution was designed for pretreating sugarcane bagasse in order to achieve efficient separation of the three major components of lignocellulose when expanding the scale of pretreatment, reduce lignin deposition on the fiber surface, and obtain highly active lignin and excellent enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency of cellulose. X-ray diffractometer (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectrometer (XPS), brunauer-emmett-teller (BET) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) methods are used to analyze the structural properties of sugarcane bagasse before and after pretreatment, and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) is used to analyze the monosaccharide components in the enzymatic solution. In addition, the structural properties of the recovered lignin are analyzed by gel permeation chromatography (GPC), 31 P NMR and 2D-HSQC-NMR methods. The results indicate that the system can gain a high cellulose recovery of 92.99% along with a lignin removal of 95.33%, and recovered lignin has low lignin carbohydrate complexes, low condensation, and rich in phenolic hydroxyl groups for 1.95 mmol/g. Meanwhile, the countercurrent pretreatment system can effectively reduce the deposition of lignin on the cellulose surface, which is evidently superior to the non-countercurrent pretreatment and facilitates the efficiency of enzymatic saccharification of substrate, achieving a high glucose yield of 99% as well as a total sugar yield of 91.11%. The method efficiently separates biomass in a green manner, and solid residues are easily hydrolyzed, showing potential for industrial-scale production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Kinetics of Direct Olefin Synthesis from Syngas over Mixed Beds of Zn–Zr Oxides and SAPO-34

A packed bed containing a physical mixture of both Zn–Zr mixed oxide catalyst and SAPO-34 converts syngas directly into a mixture of C 2 –C 5 olefins and paraffins. Specifically, the mixed oxide catalyst is responsible for intermediate oxygenate synthesis from syngas while the molecular sieve catalyzes olefin synthesis from the oxygenate intermediates. Kinetic measurements with cofed propylene over each catalyst independently confirm olefin hydrogenation activity over both components of the composite bed. The addition of either water or CO to the feed drops the activity of propylene hydrogenation over the Zn–Zr oxide. In sum, under reaction conditions of syngas feed and produced water, olefin hydrogenation predominantly occurs over the SAPO-34 catalyst, rather than over the catalyst responsible for hydrogenating CO into oxygenate intermediates. Here, a developed kinetic model consistent with this conclusion describes measurements at differing feed compositions, temperatures, space velocities, and bed catalyst mixing ratios. Technoeconomic analysis of the process indicates that the olefin-to-paraffin ratio is a key performance metric for commercial scale syngas conversion and highlights the importance of considering olefin hydrogenation rates over the molecular sieve component.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structural Analysis of the US ITER ECH Transmission Line System

The electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and current drive system is one of the main plasma heating systems for ITER. It uses high-power microwave beams with the power deposition location steerable across the plasma cross section. Microwave power is conveyed via transmission lines (TLs) that run from the gyrotrons in the radio frequency building through the assembly hall and tokamak building to the ECH launchers within the tokamak vacuum vessel. The ECH system includes a vast array of interconnected TL waveguides, in-line components, and support structures.Finite element (FE) modeling provides an essential means of simulating the system, applying loads and determining deflections, rotations, forces, moments, and stresses in order to evaluate various structural and microwave transmission performance metrics. A representative FE model of the overall ECH TL system is developed in ANSYS®. This top-level model defines the centerline of the waveguide system. Waveguide segments are represented by line elements (beams and pipes) with equivalent section properties, and support structures are represented by boundary conditions. A systematic approach is used to model each ECH component with lumped masses and structurally equivalent stiffness matrices or ANSYS superelements.The top-level TL FE model is used to evaluate the various loads (thermal, vacuum, seismic, etc.) and operating scenarios. The top-level model directly calculates stresses in the straight aluminum waveguide segments. The model provides the forces and moments acting on the in-line components for detailed submodel assessments. Displacement results from the top-level analysis feed into a separate microwave performance model to help determine operational efficiency. All TL performance and thermal-structural requirements are met, as specified by the applicable codes and standards, and successfully documented in numerous technical reports and demonstrated at the final design review.

Shanmugasundaram, Aravind↗

Non-Rare Earth Magnesium Bumper Beams

Magna will team with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE™) of rectangular and multi-zoned extrusion profiles using non-RE Mg. It is envisioned that the ShAPE™ process, developed during this project for non-circular profiles, will serve as the foundation for fabrication of full-scale bumper beams of the future where near net-shapes are extruded directly from castings in a single step, without the need for costly rare earth additives. In this project, the ShAPE™ process will be developed for a rectangular profile measuring 1” x 2” with a 0.06” wall thickness. Successful extrusion of rectangular cross sections is a critical step along the path toward profiles with multiple zones. With the process established for a rectangular profile, the project will then make advancements toward multi-zoned cross sections. A magnesium alloy bumper beam offers a 35% weight savings compared to aluminum alloys and 60% compared to high strength steels. The bumper beam was chosen as the first component to target because the geometry can have a fairly simple 0.6-0.12 inch wall/web thickness, generally compatible with PNNL’s knowledge base and equipment capability surrounding ShAPE™. The bumper component offers commercial value by providing mass reduction in the front of the vehicle along with ride and handling benefit. PNNL has demonstrated the ability to ShAPE™ process non-RE Mg tubing with high strength, ductility and energy absorption. It has been shown that ShAPE™ extruded ZK60 and Mg2Si tubing with 0.30 inch diameter and 0.03 inch wall thickness have similar energy absorption to AA6061-T6. This is due to significant grain refinement, breakdown and dispersion of second phases, and the ability to eliminate anisotropy in compressive/tensile strength by aligning texture 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Scalability of the ShAPE™ process has been demonstrated in ZK60 by fabricating 2.0 inch diameter tubing with 0.06 and 0.12 inch wall thicknesses having concentricity as tight as 1.3%. These tubes exhibit an ultimate tensile strength of 260-300 MPa and room temperature ductility of >20% parallel, perpendicular and 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Aluminum bumpers represent approximately 54% of the NA light vehicle market. If the research effort is successful, providing a 30% mass reduction at equal cost relative to aluminum bumpers, it is anticipated that 25% market penetration would be realized over the next 5 year and 50% market share by 2030. 100% of the aluminum automotive bumpers are sourced from the tier network, providing resourcing opportunity based on equal performance, reduced mass and cost equivalent lower than aluminum bumpers. Due to the relatively low vehicle content, magnesium components are currently shredded and 100% recycled with aluminum content in the US, presenting a positive life cycle impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mixed-flow design for microfluidic printing of two-component polymer semiconductor systems

The rational creation of two-component conjugated polymer systems with high levels of phase purity in each component is challenging but crucial for realizing printed soft-matter electronics. Here, we report a mixed-flow microfluidic printing (MFMP) approach for two-component π -polymer systems that significantly elevates phase purity in bulk-heterojunction solar cells and thin-film transistors. MFMP integrates laminar and extensional flows using a specially microstructured shear blade, designed with fluid flow simulation tools to tune the flow patterns and induce shear, stretch, and pushout effects. This optimizes polymer conformation and semiconducting blend order as assessed by atomic force microscopy (AFM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), grazing incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS), resonant soft X-ray scattering (R-SoXS), photovoltaic response, and field effect mobility. For printed all-polymer (poly[(5,6-difluoro-2-octyl-2H-benzotriazole-4,7-diyl)-2,5-thiophenediyl[4,8-bis[5-(2-hexyldecyl)-2-thienyl]benzo[1,2-b:4,5-b′]dithiophene-2,6-diyl]-2,5-thiophenediyl]) [J51]:(poly{[N,N′-bis(2-octyldodecyl)naphthalene-1,4,5,8-bis(dicarboximide)-2,6-diyl]-alt-5,5′-(2,2′-bithiophene)}) [N2200]) solar cells, this approach enhances short-circuit currents and fill factors, with power conversion efficiency increasing from 5.20% for conventional blade coating to 7.80% for MFMP. Moreover, the performance of mixed polymer ambipolar [poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) (P3HT):N2200] and semiconducting:insulating polymer unipolar (N2200:polystyrene) transistors is similarly enhanced, underscoring versatility for two-component π -polymer systems. Mixed-flow designs offer modalities for achieving high-performance organic optoelectronics via innovative printing methodologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗