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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the grain-scale deformation behavior of a single-phase FCC high entropy alloy using synchrotron high energy diffraction microscopy

We report although the deformation behavior of high-entropy alloys (HEAs) has been extensively studied at the macroscale, many important properties have yet to be explored for these alloys at the microscale, thus hampering accurate prediction of damage and failure processes. Synchrotron high-energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) and fast-Fourier transform-based crystal plasticity modeling was conducted to investigate the three-dimensional (3D) grain-resolved micromechanical response for approximately 1,900 constituent grains within a single-phase FCC HEA up to 1% applied strain. The evolution of grain-resolved elastic strains, lattice reorientations, and maximum resolved shear stresses (mRSS) were evaluated to quantify elastic, yield, and fully plastic behavior. Overall, the initial critical resolved shear stress (CRSS), determined via in situ HEDM and companion modeling, was found to be > 20% higher than estimated using the classical polycrystalline Taylor factor (M = 3.06). However, a descriptive parameter based on the average grain-resolved Taylor factor ($\overline{M}$) was found to show excellent agreement with plastic yielding behavior observed within HEDM datasets. Noticeable deviations in HEDM lattice reorientations compared to both EVP-FFT simulations and classical predictions for FCC polycrystals were discovered, highlighting the complexity in correlating local lattice reorientations, Taylor, and Schmid factors with plastic response for this material at the grain-scale. Therefore, it is anticipated that the overall trends and parameter identification of 3D grain-resolved properties in this study can serve as an important foundation for continued mesoscale investigation on both well-established and newly developed Cantor-like HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗
DOE OSTI2020

Favorable Redox Thermodynamics of SrTi 0.5 Mn 0.5 O 3–δ in Solar Thermochemical Water Splitting

Two-step, solar thermochemical splitting of water using nonstoichiometric redox-active metal oxides has emerged as an intriguing approach for large-scale hydrogen production. Perovskites have been proposed as alternatives to state-of-the-art fluorite CeO 2–δ because of their potential for lowering reduction temperature while maintaining high fuel productivity. Guided by computational insights, we explore the thermodynamic properties and water splitting efficacy of the cubic perovskite SrTi 0.5 Mn 0.5 O 3–δ (STM55). Thermogravimetric analysis is performed under controlled oxygen partial pressures (pO 2 ) and temperatures up to 1500 °C, from which both the enthalpy and entropy of reduction as a function of oxygen nonstoichiometry are determined. STM55 provides an attractive combination of moderate enthalpy, 200–250 kJ (mol-O) –1 , and high entropy, with unusual δ dependence. Using a water splitting cycle in which the material is thermally reduced at 1350 °C (pO 2 , ~10 –5 atm) and subsequently exposed to steam at 1100 °C (steam partial pressure of pH 2 O = 0.4 atm), we demonstrate a hydrogen yield of 7.4 mL g –1 . Through both half-cycles, the material remains largely in quasi-equilibrium with the gas phase, as reflected in the agreement of the measured data with predicted profiles based on the thermodynamic data. This behavior indicates rapid surface and bulk diffusion kinetics. Cyclic operation showed the material to be free of degradation and always resulted in a 2:1 yield of H 2 /O 2 . Altogether, STM55 provides outstanding performance characteristics for thermochemical hydrogen production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Approaches for Rare-Earth Silicate Environmental Barrier Coating Thermochemical and Thermomechanical Property Predictions

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are a necessary enabling technology for the transition from superalloys to silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in gas turbine engines for increased efficiency and decreased fuel costs. SiC-based CMCs are prone to oxidation-based degradation in the engine hot section, and rare-earth (RE) silicates are promising candidates for EBCs due to their close thermal expansion match to the composite substrate and oxidation resistance. However, the design of EBCs is hindered by the large chemical space of candidate materials and the difficulty in obtaining material properties for engineering optimization. This is especially difficult as research continues into mixed-cation or “high-entropy” RE silicates. First-principles computational methods such as density functional theory (DFT) are highly effective at calculating material properties to guide coating design but are limited by their computational cost. Atomistic simulations have the potential to both accelerate property calculations and expand the properties able to be calculated due to their lower computational compared to DFT. However, they require interatomic potentials (IAPs) specific to the material system of interest, and, to our knowledge, there are no suitable IAPs for RE silicates. Machine learning (ML) is a promising technique to accelerate material property predictions indirectly by generating IAPs for atomistic simulations or via direct prediction. In this work, we present two ML approaches to accelerate the calculation of RE silicate properties relevant to EBC design: 1) a ML-derived interatomic potential (IAP) for atomistic simulations of yttrium disilicate (Y2Si2O7) from DFT training data, and 2) a neural network (NN) model to directly predict thermochemical properties of RE silicates and oxides directly from easily obtainable unit cell parameters. Classical MD simulations using the IAP yield lattice properties and bond lengths in good agreement with both DFT and experimental results from x-ray diffraction. Thermodynamic properties calculated using the finite-displacement phonon method and quasi-harmonic approximation were orders of magnitude faster than DFT with good agreement to the DFT results. The IAP was also used to calculate properties such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) that require large simulation supercells and are therefore difficult with DFT. The IAP correctly predicted the anisotropic nature of the CTE in three different phases of Y2Si2O7. The NN model predicts constant pressure heat capacity, Cp, orders of magnitude faster than DFT calculations, which can enable its use as a surrogate model for multiscale simulations. The two methods presented in this work demonstrate the utility of ML for accelerating the prediction of RE silicate properties, which can in turn accelerate EBC design and optimization.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of particle size and moisture on flow performance of loblolly pine anatomical fractions: Experimental findings and model predictions

The rising energy demand has highlighted biomass as a promising next-generation energy source. However, commercializing biomass-derived energy faces challenges, particularly in handling biomass feedstock. Factors like particle size, shape, moisture content, and surface roughness significantly impact biomass flowability. This study addresses a crucial knowledge gap by examining the effects of particle size and moisture content on the flow behavior and shear properties of different anatomical fractions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). The bulk shear behavior was examined using a Schulze ring shear tester, while flow performance was tested through gravity-driven flow experiments in a variable wedge-shape hopper. Results were incorporated into empirical and machine learning-based flow prediction models to evaluate their accuracy and limitations. The study found that samples with higher moisture content show higher unconfined yield strength. The critical arching distance increased with particle size, e.g., from approximately 13 and 33 mm for 2- and 6-mm whole chips, respectively at a 32-degree inclination angle. Conversely, the flow rate decreased for a given hopper opening as particle size increased. For instance, at a 60-mm hopper opening and a 32-degree inclination angle, the mass flow rates for 2- and 6-mm whole chips were 7.83 and 6.42 tonne/h, respectively. The empirical model consistently overpredicted the mass flow rate for all anatomical fractions, while the machine learning model more accurately predicted the central tendency of flow rate but was insensitive to varying tissue proportions. These novel findings provide comprehensive characterization of anatomical fractions, reveal significant combined effects of particle size and moisture content on biomass flow behavior, and demonstrate a better predictive accuracy of a machine learning model, all of which are useful for optimizing material handling strategies and biomass utilization technologies in the industry.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energetics of the nucleation and glide of disconnection modes in symmetric tilt grain boundaries

Grain boundaries (GBs) evolve by the nucleation and glide of disconnections, which are dislocations with a step character. In this work, motivated by recent success in predicting GB properties such as the shear coupling factor and mobility from the intrinsic properties of disconnections, we develop a systematic method to calculate the energy barriers for the nucleation and glide of individual disconnection modes under arbitrary driving forces and a quasi-2D setting. This method combines tools from bicrystallography to enumerate disconnection modes and the Nudged elastic band (NEB) method to calculate their energetics, yielding minimum energy paths and atomistic mechanisms for the nucleation and glide of each disconnection mode. We apply the method to accurately predict shear coupling factors of $[001]$ symmetric tilt grain boundaries in Cu. Particular attention is paid to the boundaries where the dislocation-based disconnection nucleation model produces incorrect nucleation barriers. We demonstrate that the method can accurately compute energy barriers and predict shear-coupling factors in the low-temperature regime. For certain disconnection modes in which the assumptions underlying our method do not hold, we report upper bounds on the energy barriers for disconnection nucleation and glide. In addition, the NEB trajectories reveal interesting phenomena such as the dissociation of a higher energy mode into lower energy modes, and in some cases, shear coupling being mediated by partial disconnections, wherein the GB structure temporarily changes to a metastable state before reverting back to its original structure. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1977

The large area crop inventory experiment - A major demonstration of space remote sensing

The NASA-U.S. Department of Agriculture Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE), aimed at using multispectral remote sensing data from Landsat 1 and 2 to generate accurate annual global crop production forecasts, is discussed. The forecasts take into account meteorological conditions as well as yield and acreage, and may be used to increase the discrimination of U.S. harvest estimates down to regional levels and to provide more accurate early-season predictions. Sample problems involving the determination of wheat harvests and the monitoring of drought conditions are described. Difficulties related to misidentification of abnormally-developing plantations, the automatic classification of homogeneous spectral groups, the computerized generation of colored maps, and the estimation of yields during years when exceptional meteorological conditions prevail are also considered. Samples of Landsat-generated classification maps for Western U.S. and for the Saratov, U.S.S.R. crop regions are given.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Model Monte Carlo Estimators for Trajectory Simulation

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, andlanding (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in aerodynamics, atmosphere, mass properties, etc. While standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the de facto standard for producing robust and unbiasedstatistical estimators, it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup, but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more modelsof varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation.This works establishes a proof of concept for using multi-model MC to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g., data-driven, reduced physics) in this manner has the potential to yield significant efficiency and accuracy gains for certain EDL QoIs versusa standard MC approach. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions ishighlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity model alone.

James E Warner↗
NASA NTRS2004

Representation of the Geosynchronous Plasma Environment for Spacecraft Charging Calculations

Historically, our ability to predict and postdict surface charging has suffered from both a lack of reliable secondary emission and backscattered electron yields and poor characterization of the plasma environment. One difficulty lies in the common practice of fitting the plasma data to a Maxwellian or Double Maxwellian distribution function, which may not represent the data well for charging purposes. For 13 years Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been accumulating measurements of electron and proton spectra from Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer (MPA) instruments aboard a series of geosynchronous satellites. These data provide both a plasma characterization and the potential of the instrument ground. We use electron and ion flux spectra measured by the LANL MPA to examine how the use of different spectral representations of the charged particle environment in computations of spacecraft potentials during magnetospheric substorms affects the accuracy of the results. We calculate the spacecraft potential using both the measured fluxes and several different fits to these fluxes. These flux measurements and fits have been corrected for the difference between the measured and calculated potential. The potentials computed using the measured fluxes, the best available material properties of graphite carbon, and a secondary electron escape fraction of 81%, are within a factor of three of the measured potential for nearly all the data. Using a Kappa fit to the electron distribution function and a Maxwellian fit to the ion distribution function gives agreement similar to the calculations using the actual data. Alternative spectral representations, including Maxwellian and double Maxwellian for both species, lead to less satisfactory agreement between predicted and measured potentials.

Davis, V. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The prediction of nonlinear longitudinal combustion instability in liquid propellant rockets

An analytical technique was developed to solve nonlinear longitudinal combustion instability problems. The analysis yields the transient and limit cycle behavior of unstable motors and the threshold amplitude required to trigger a linearly stable motor into unstable operation. The limit cycle waveforms were found to exhibit shock wave characteristics for most unstable engine operating conditions. A method of correlating the analytical solutions with experimental data was developed. Calculated results indicate that a second-order solution adequately describes the behavior of combustion instability oscillations over a broad range of engine operating conditions, but that higher order effects must be accounted for in order to investigate engine triggering.

Lores, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear rotordynamics analysis

Effective analysis tools were developed for predicting the nonlinear rotordynamic behavior of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopumps under steady and transient operating conditions. Using these methods, preliminary parametric studies were conducted on both generic and actual HPOTP (high pressure oxygen turbopump) models. In particular, a novel modified harmonic balance/alternating Fourier transform (HB/AFT) method was developed and used to conduct a preliminary study of the effects of fluid, bearing and seal forces on the unbalanced response of a multi-disk rotor in the presence of bearing clearances. The method makes it possible to determine periodic, sub-, super-synchronous and chaotic responses of a rotor system. The method also yields information about the stability of the obtained response, thus allowing bifurcation analyses. This provides a more effective capability for predicting the response under transient conditions by searching in proximity of resonance peaks. Preliminary results were also obtained for the nonlinear transient response of an actual HPOTP model using an efficient, newly developed numerical method based on convolution integration. Currently, the HB/AFT is being extended for determining the aperiodic response of nonlinear systems. Initial results show the method to be promising.

Noah, Sherif T.↗
NASA NTRS1973

An investigation to improve the Menhaden fishery prediction and detection model through the application of ERTS-A data

The author has identified the following significant results. Linear regression of secchi disc visibility against number of sets yielded significant results in a number of instances. The variability seen in the slope of the regression lines is due to the nonuniformity of sample size. The longer the period sampled, the larger the total number of attempts. Further, there is no reason to expect either the influence of transparency or of other variables to remain constant throughout the season. However, the fact that the data for the entire season, variable as it is, was significant at the 5% level, suggests its potential utility for predictive modeling. Thus, this regression equation will be considered representative and will be utilized for the first numerical model. Secchi disc visibility was also regressed against number of sets for the three day period September 27-September 29, 1972 to determine if surface truth data supported the intense relationship between ERTS-1 identified turbidity and fishing effort previously discussed. A very negative correlation was found. These relationship lend additional credence to the hypothesis that ERTS imagery, when utilized as a source of visibility (turbidity) data, may be useful as a predictive tool.

Maughan, P. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Programmable Anisotropy and Percolation in Supramolecular Patchy Particle Gels

Patchy particle interactions are predicted to facilitate the controlled self-assembly and arrest of particles into phase-stable and morphologically tunable "equilibrium" gels, which avoids the arrested phase separation and subsequent aging that is typically observed in traditional particle gels with isotropic interactions. Despite these promising traits of patchy particle interactions, such tunable equilibrium gels have yet to be realized in the laboratory due to experimental limitations associated with synthesizing patchy particles in high yield. Here, we introduce a supramolecular metal-coordination platform consisting of metallic nanoparticles linked by telechelic polymer chains, which validates the predictions associated with patchy particle interactions and facilitates the design of equilibrium particle hydrogels through limited valency interactions. We demonstrate that the interaction valency and self-assembly of the particles can be effectively controlled by adjusting the relative concentration of polymeric linkers to nanoparticles, which enables the gelation of patchy particle hydrogels with programmable local anisotropy, morphology, and low mechanical percolation thresholds. Moreover, by crowding the local environment around the patchy particles with competing interactions, we introduce an independent method to control the self-assembly of the nanoparticles, thereby enabling the design of highly anisotropic particle hydrogels with substantially reduced percolation thresholds. We thus establish a canonical platform that facilitates multifaceted control of the self-assembly of the patchy nanoparticles en route to the design of patchy particle gels with tunable valencies, morphologies, and percolation thresholds. These advances lay important foundations for further fundamental studies of patchy particle systems and for designing tunable gel materials that address a wide range of engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Regional Drought on Sub-Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. It is driven foremost by an extended period of reduced precipitation, but it is the impacts on such quantities as soil moisture, streamflow and crop yields that are often most important from a users perspective. While recognizing that different users have different needs for drought information, it is nevertheless important to understand that progress in predicting drought and satisfying such user needs, largely hinges on our ability to improve predictions of precipitation. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales, and the implications for predictability and prediction skill. Examples are given highlighting the phenomena and mechanisms controlling precipitation on monthly (e.g., stationary Rossby waves, soil moisture), seasonal (ENSO) and decadal time scales (PD~ and AMO).

Schubert, Siegfried↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Critical Shear Stresses for Erosion from Yield Stresses

The critical shear stress for erosion is important in many fields of engineering and science that involve suspension of particles from settled particle beds. However, determining the critical shear stress for erosion remains intricate, particularly where interparticle forces play a key role. Because these forces vary widely (Pease, et al., 2019), a more convenient means of estimating the critical shear stress for erosion would be advantageous. Here we evaluate the assertion that critical shear stresses for erosion may be derived from yield stresses for nominally cohesive particle beds across the full range of particle Reynolds numbers. The critical shear stress for erosion for non-cohesive particle beds may be estimated from the Shields diagrams or the analytical expressions from conservation of force about a particle at the interface. However, equivalent diagrams for cohesive particle beds have remained elusive. In 1992, pioneering analysis by Dade included the influence of the van der Waals force in particle forces balances to show that the critical shear stresses for erosion may be related to yield stresses subject to the limitations of small particle Reynolds numbers, flat particle beds, uniform particle diameters, and negligible electrostatic forces. Here we relax these restrictions. We find that the critical shear stress for erosion does relate to the yield stresses in a linear fashion for sufficiently large yield stresses. A criterion is developed to determine when the yield stresses may be important. Pease LF, AJ Fuher, JA Bamberger, and MJ Minette. 2024. Shields Diagrams for Cohesive Particle Beds. Manuscript. Dade WB, ARM Nowell and PA Jumars. 1992. “Predicting erosion resistance of muds.” Marine Geology, 105 (1992) 285-297.

shear stress, erosion, yield stress, slurry, settl↗
NASA NTRS2016

Plasticity Tool for Predicting Shear Nonlinearity of Unidirectional Laminates Under Multiaxial Loading

This study implements a plasticity tool to predict the nonlinear shear behavior of unidirectional composite laminates under multiaxial loadings, with an intent to further develop the tool for use in composite progressive damage analysis. The steps for developing the plasticity tool include establishing a general quadratic yield function, deriving the incremental elasto-plastic stress-strain relations using the yield function with associated flow rule, and integrating the elasto-plastic stress-strain relations with a modified Euler method and a substepping scheme. Micromechanics analyses are performed to obtain normal and shear stress-strain curves that are used in determining the plasticity parameters of the yield function. By analyzing a micromechanics model, a virtual testing approach is used to replace costly experimental tests for obtaining stress-strain responses of composites under various loadings. The predicted elastic moduli and Poisson's ratios are in good agreement with experimental data. The substepping scheme for integrating the elasto-plastic stress-strain relations is suitable for working with displacement-based finite element codes. An illustration problem is solved to show that the plasticity tool can predict the nonlinear shear behavior for a unidirectional laminate subjected to multiaxial loadings.

Wang, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Intercomparison of the representations of the atmospheric chemistry of pre-industrial methane and ozone in earth system and other global chemistry-transport models

An intercomparison has been set up to study the representation of the atmospheric chemistry of the pre-industrial troposphere in earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models. The intercomparison employed a constrained box model and utilised tropospheric trace gas composition data for the pre-industrial times at ninety mid-latitude surface locations. Incremental additions of four organic compounds: methane, ethane, acetone and propane, were used to perturb the constrained box model and generate responses in hydroxyl radicals and tropospheric ozone at each location and with each chemical mechanism. Although the responses agreed well across the chemical mechanisms from the selected earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models, there were differences in the detailed responses between the chemical mechanisms that could be tracked down by sensitivity analysis to differences in the representation of C1–C3 chemistry. Inter-mechanism ranges in NOx compensation points were about 0.17 ± 0.12 when expressed relative to the inter-mechanism average. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis carried out with a single chemical mechanism put the intra-mechanism range a factor of three higher at 0.50 ± 0.12. Similar differences between inter-mechanism and intra-mechanism ranges were found for hydroxyl radical depletion but were up to a factor of six wider for ozone formation from incremental additions of organic compounds. The cause of the discrepancies between the inter- and intra-mechanism ranges was found to be the large uncertainties that are present in the laboratory determinations of the rate coefficients and product channel branching ratios of some key chemical reactions involving organic peroxy radicals and hydroperoxides. Whilst these large uncertainties are present in the laboratory determinations, there will be irreducible uncertainties in the predictions from the earth system and other chemistry-transport models of methane and tropospheric ozone trends since pre-industrial times and hence their contributions to the radiative forcing of climate change. Further definitive laboratory studies of the reaction rates and product yields of the reactions of the simple organic peroxy radicals and hydroperoxides are required to resolve and reduce current uncertainties in earth system and chemistry-transport model predictions.

atmospheric chemistry↗