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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

surface energy↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Dynamical Role of the Chesapeake Bay on the Local Ozone Pollution Using Mesoscale Modeling—A Case Study

This study investigated the dynamic influence of the Chesapeake Bay (CB) on local ozone (O3) concentration and distribution using a weather forecasting model. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF–Chem) was employed to simulate O3 production and transportation near the CB. Baseline (water) as well as sensitivity (nowater) model experiments of bay circulation were carried out with and without bay water by changing the water surface from water to land (loam). First, the model performance simulating O3 was evaluated using the baseline experiment results and AirNow surface wind and O3 observations. The results showed that the model overestimates surface O3 by up to 20–30%. Further, the comparisons of the baseline and sensitivity experiments revealed higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to the resulting bay breeze circulation. These increases, after considering model overestimation, represent a mean bay dynamics circulation-induced contribution of up to 10% at night and 5% during the day. Furthermore, the boundary layer over northern CB, where it is at its narrowest width, was higher (by 1.2 km on average) during daytime due to higher surface temperatures observed. The boundary layer depth difference between the northern, central, and southern regions of the bay leads to a differential in the role of bay circulation dynamics in the observed O3 increase. The relatively wider swath of water surface over southern CB resulted in a lower boundary layer depth and stronger breeze circulation and this circulation contributed to O3 concentrations. Moreover, since the case selected has a minimal bay breeze circulation, the associated surface ozone enhancements represent what is expected at least at a minimum.

Chesapeak Bay↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tangible Solutions for Grid Operation Upgrade

Many countries worldwide are setting clean energy targets to decarbonize the energy sector and add higher wind and solar capacities. Given their distributed nature, variable renewable energy (VRE) assets can have unique grid integration considerations, and require grid operation practices to be modernized. When transitioning to higher renewable energy levels, many system operators configure a dedicated renewable energy desk to manage renewable energy resource operation in the system control center. Further, system operation planning is conducted with VRE and load forecasting to enable reliable real-time system operation. NREL has partnered with many system operators in the region to identify appropriate technology and grid modernization solutions. NREL and partners from system operators in the region will present on the challenges and some solutions that have been applied and share best practices such as energy management system upgrades, VRE forecasting framework, grid flexibility improvements, and staff training.

emerging economies↗
DOE OSTI2018

Aerosol and Urban Land Use Effect on Rainfall Around Cities in Indo-Gangetic Basin From Observations and Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

For this research, coupling of urban land use land cover (LULC) and aerosol loading on rainfall around cities in the Gangetic Basin (GB) is examined here. Long-term observations illustrate more rainfall at urban core and climatological downwind regions compared to the upwind regions of Kanpur, a metropolitan located in central GB. In addition, analysis of a 15-day cloud resolving simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model also illustrated similar rainfall pattern around other major cities in the GB. Interestingly, the enhancement of downwind rainfall was greater than that over urban regions, and it was positively associated with both the urban area of the city and ambient aerosol loading during the propagating storm. Further, to gain a process-level understanding, a typical storm that propagated northwestward across Kanpur was simulated using WRF under three different scenarios. Case 1 has realistic LULC representation of Kanpur, while the grids representing the Kanpur urban region were replaced by cropland LULC pattern in case 2. Comparison illustrated that urban heat island effect caused convergence of winds and moisture in the lower troposphere, which enhances convection over urban region and induced more rainfall over the urban core compared to upwind regions. Case 3 is similar to case 1 but lower aerosol concentration (by a factor of 100) over the storm region. Lastly, analysis show that aerosol induced microphysical changes delay the initiation of warm rain (over the upwind region) but enhance ice-phase particle formation in latter stages (over the urban and downwind regions) resulting in increase in downwind rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Relationships Between the Planetary Boundary Layer Height and Surface Pollutants Derived from Lidar Observations over China: Regional Pattern and Influencing Factors

The frequent occurrence of severe air pollution episodes in China has been a great concern and thus the focus of intensive studies. Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a key factor in the vertical mixing and dilution of near-surface pollutants. However, the relationship between PBLH and surface pollutants, especially particulate matter (PM) concentration across China, is not yet well understood. We investigate this issue at 1600 surface stations using PBLH derived from space-borne and ground-based lidar, and discuss the influence of topography and meteorological variables on the PBLH–PM relationship. Albeit the PBLH–PM correlations are roughly negative for most cases, their magnitude, significance, and even sign vary considerably with location, season, and meteorological conditions. Weak or even uncorrelated PBLH–PM relationships are found over clean regions (e.g., Pearl River Delta), whereas nonlinearly negative responses of PM to PBLH evolution are found over polluted regions (e.g., North China Plain). Relatively strong PBLH–PM interactions are found when the PBLH is shallow and PM concentration is high, which typically corresponds to wintertime cases. Correlations are much weaker over the highlands than the plains regions, which may be associated with lighter pollution loading at higher elevations and contributions from mountain breezes. The influence of horizontal transport on surface PM is considered as well, manifested as a negative correlation between surface PM and wind speed over the whole nation. Strong wind with clean upwind air plays a dominant role in removing pollutants, and leads to obscure PBLH–PM relationships. A ventilation rate is used to jointly consider horizontal and vertical dispersion, which has the largest impact on surface pollutant accumulation over the North China Plain. As such, this study contributes to improved understanding of aerosol–planetary boundary layer (PBL) interactions and thus our ability to forecast surface air pollution.

Su, Tianning↗
NASA NTRS1986

Forecasting sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center using the Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale Model (P 3DM)

A Prognostic Three-Dimensional Model (P3DM) to produce 1- to 12-hr predictions of sea breeze convective (SBC) storms at KSC is described. The P3DM was developed to account for a scale of about 10 km, interactions between surface heat and moisture fluxes, boundary layer convergence, the movement of moisture into cloud formation zones, and alterations in the convective potential in the lower levels of the atmosphere during the diurnal cycle. Initialized with wind, temperature, specific humidity and local water temperature data, the model allows for the distortion of the boundary layer moisture and thermal fields by sea breeze conditions. The results of three simulations of events leading to the onset of SBC storms are presented to demonstrate the model's capabilities, and techniques which may enhance the accuracy of the predictions are discussed.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Advanced Air Data Systems for Commercial Aircraft

It is possible to get a crude estimate of wind speed and direction while driving a car at night in the rain, with the motion of the raindrop reflections in the headlights providing clues about the wind. The clues are difficult to interpret, though, because of the relative motions of ground, car, air, and raindrops. More subtle interpretation is possible if the rain is replaced by fog, because the tiny droplets would follow the swirling currents of air around an illuminated object, like, for example, a walking pedestrian. Microscopic particles in the air (aerosols) are better for helping make assessments of the wind, and reflective air molecules are best of all, providing the most refined measurements. It takes a bright light to penetrate fog, so it is easy to understand how other factors, like replacing the headlights with the intensity of a searchlight, can be advantageous. This is the basic principle behind a lidar system. While a radar system transmits a pulse of radiofrequency energy and interprets the received reflections, a lidar system works in a similar fashion, substituting a near-optical laser pulse. The technique allows the measurement of relative positions and velocities between the transmitter and the air, which allows measurements of relative wind and of air temperature (because temperature is associated with high-frequency random motions on a molecular level). NASA, as well as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have interests in this advanced lidar technology, as much of their explorative research requires the ability to measure winds and turbulent regions within the atmosphere. Lidar also shows promise for providing warning of turbulent regions within the National Airspace System to allow commercial aircraft to avoid encounters with turbulence and thereby increase the safety of the traveling public. Both agencies currently employ lidar and optical sensing for a variety of weather-related research projects, such as analyzing the water content of snow and forecasting lightning.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07)

GRAM is a Fortran software package that can run on a variety of platforms including PC's. GRAM provides values of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, pressure, density, winds, constituents, etc. GRAM99 covers all global locations, all months, and heights from the surface to approx. 1000 km). Dispersions (perturbations) of these parameters are also provided and are spatially and temporally correlated. GRAM can be run in a stand-alone mode or called as a subroutine from a trajectory program. GRAM07 is diagnostic, not prognostic (i.e., it describes the atmosphere, but it does not forecast). The source code is distributed free-of-charge to eligible recipients.

Leslie, Fred W.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of the Effects of RAS vs. Kain-Fritsch Convective Schemes on Katrina Forecasts with GEOS-5

Global forecasts were made with the 0.25-degree latitude version of GEOS-5, with the RAS scheme and with the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Examination was made of the Katrina (2005) hurricane simulation. Replacement of the RAS convective scheme with the K-F scheme results in a much more vigorous Katrina, closer to reality. Still, the result is not as vigorous as reality. In terms of wind maximum, the gap was closed by ~50%. The result seems to be due to the RAS scheme drying out the boundary layer, thus hampering the grid-scale secondary circulation and attending cyclone development. The RAS case never developed a full warm core, whereas the K-F case did. Not shown here: The K-F scheme also resulted in a more vigorous storm than when GEOS-5 is run with no convective parameterization. Also not shown: An experiment in which the RAS firing level was moved up by 3 model levels resulted in a stronger, warm-core storm, though not as strong as the K-F case. Effects on storm track were noticed, but not studied.

Miller, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. Recent advancements in solar observations and numerical simulations provide a basis for developing physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. The goal is to develop new strategic capabilities that enable characterization and prediction of the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. The integration of first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is a new, transformative step in space weather research and prediction. This approach will substantially enhance an existing model of magnetic flux distribution and transport developed by the Air Force Research Lab. The development plan is to use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to develop Coupled Models for Emerging flux Simulations (CMES) that couples three existing models: (1) an MHD formulation with the anelastic approximation to simulate the deep convection zone (FSAM code), (2) an MHD formulation with full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and a detailed description of radiative transfer and thermodynamics to simulate near-surface convection and the photosphere (Stagger code), and (3) an MHD formulation with full, compressible Navier-Stokes equations and an approximate description of radiative transfer and heating to simulate the corona (Module in BATS-R-US). CMES will enable simulations of the emergence of magnetic structures from the deep convection zone to the corona. Finally, a plan will be summarized on the development of a Flux Emergence Prediction Tool (FEPT) in which helioseismology-derived data and vector magnetic maps are assimilated into CMES that couples the dynamics of magnetic flux from the deep interior to the corona.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Solar energetic particle events in different types of solar wind

We examine statistically some properties of 96 20 MeV gradual solar energetic proton (SEP) events as a function of three different types of solar wind (SW) as classified by Richardson and Cane. Gradual SEP (E > 10 MeV) events are produced in shocks driven by fast (V ≳ 900 km s{sup –1}) and wide (W > 60°) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We find no differences among the transient, fast, and slow SW streams for SEP 20 MeV proton event timescales. It has recently been found that the peak intensities Ip of these SEP events scale with the ∼2 MeV proton background intensities, which may be a proxy for the near-Sun shock seed particles. Both the intensities Ip and their 2 MeV backgrounds are significantly enhanced in transient SW compared to those of fast and slow SW streams, and the values of Ip normalized to the 2 MeV backgrounds only weakly correlate with CME V for all SW types. This result implies that forecasts of SEP events could be improved by monitoring both the Sun and the local SW stream properties and that the well known power-law size distributions of Ip may differ between transient and long-lived SW streams. We interpret an observed correlation between CME V and the 2 MeV background for SEP events in transient SW as a manifestation of enhanced solar activity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

TROPHY: A Topologically Robust Physics-Informed Tracking Framework for Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. In particular, the eye is a signature feature of a mature TC. Therefore, knowing the eyes’ locations and movements is crucial for both operational weather forecasts and climate risk assessments. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been introduced to study the critical points of time-varying vector fields. The framework quantifies the robustness (i.e., structural stability) of critical points across varying neighborhoods. By relating the multilevel robustness with critical point tracking, the framework has demonstrated its potential in cyclone tracking. An advantage is that it identifies cyclonic features using only 2D wind vector fields, which is encouraging as most tracking algorithms require multiple dynamic and thermodynamic variables at different altitudes. A disadvantage is that the framework does not scale well computationally for datasets containing a large number of cyclones. Herein this paper introduces a topologically robust physics-informed tracking framework (TROPHY) for TC tracking. The main idea is to integrate physical knowledge of TC to drastically improve the computational efficiency of multilevel robustness framework for large-scale climate datasets. First, during preprocessing, we propose a physics-informed feature selection strategy to filter 90% of critical points that are short-lived and have low stability, thus preserving good candidates for TC tracking. Second, during in-processing, we impose constraints during the multilevel robustness computation to focus only on physics-informed neighborhoods of TCs. We apply TROPHY to 30 years of 2D wind fields from reanalysis data in ERA5 and generate a number of TC tracks. In comparison with the observed tracks, we demonstrate that TROPHY can capture TC characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, duration, latitudes with maximum intensity, and genesis) that are comparable to and sometimes even better than a well-validated TC tracking algorithm that requires multiple dynamic and thermodynamic scalar fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET): Following the Evolution of Boundary Layer Cloud Systems with the NSF–NCAR GV

The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) study was designed to describe and explain the evolution of the boundary layer aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic structures along trajectories within the North Pacific trade winds. The study centered on seven round trips of the National Science Foundation–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF–NCAR) Gulfstream V (GV) between Sacramento, California, and Kona, Hawaii, between 7 July and 9 August 2015. The CSET observing strategy was to sample aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer properties upwind from the transition zone over the North Pacific and to resample these areas two days later. Global Forecast System forecast trajectories were used to plan the outbound flight to Hawaii with updated forecast trajectories setting the return flight plan two days later. Two key elements of the CSET observing system were the newly developed High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Cloud Radar (HCR) and the high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL). Together they provided unprecedented characterizations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation structures that were combined with in situ measurements of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and turbulence properties. The cloud systems sampled included solid stratocumulus infused with smoke from Canadian wildfires, mesoscale cloud–precipitation complexes, and patches of shallow cumuli in very clean environments. Ultraclean layers observed frequently near the top of the boundary layer were often associated with shallow, optically thin, layered veil clouds. In conclusion, the extensive aerosol, cloud, drizzle, and boundary layer sampling made over open areas of the northeast Pacific along 2-day trajectories during CSET will be an invaluable resource for modeling studies of boundary layer cloud system evolution and its governing physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alaska Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

The Alaska MET (Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission) Toolkit is the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) new flagship atmospheric dataset, designed to support comprehensive long-term planning and operations across the entire power sector. Serving as the regional counterpart to CONUS-wide HRRR MET Toolkit, this dataset provides a comprehensive, high-fidelity meteorological record covering Alaska.The Alaska MET Toolkit is delivered at an hourly resolution on a standardized 2-km horizontal grid. This dataset is repackaged from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh for Alaska (HRRR-AK) forecasts. Spanning from 2019 to 2025, it overcomes the technical barriers of native weather models by providing spatial regridding from the native 3-km HRRR-AK horizontal resolution to a 2-km grid, temporal gap-filling, and vertical interpolation at key energy-relevant heights. By delivering highly accurate, validation-backed data across a comprehensive suite of atmospheric variables - including temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind characteristics - the Alaska MET Toolkit provides a highly accessible and strictly standardized foundation for modern power system modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Porting the WAVEWATCH III (v6.07) wave action source terms to GPU

Abstract. Surface gravity waves play a critical role in several processes, including mixing, coastal inundation, and surface fluxes. Despite the growing literature on the importance of ocean surface waves, wind–wave processes have traditionally been excluded from Earth system models (ESMs) due to the high computational costs of running spectral wave models. The development of the Next Generation Ocean Model for the DOE’s (Department of Energy) E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Project partly focuses on the inclusion of a wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), into E3SM. WW3, which was originally developed for operational wave forecasting, needs to be computationally less expensive before it can be integrated into ESMs. To accomplish this, we take advantage of heterogeneous architectures at DOE leadership computing facilities and the increasing computing power of general-purpose graphics processing units (GPUs). This paper identifies the wave action source terms, W3SRCEMD, as the most computationally intensive module in WW3 and then accelerates them via GPU. Our experiments on two computing platforms, Kodiak (P100 GPU and Intel(R) Xeon(R) central processing unit, CPU, E5-2695 v4) and Summit (V100 GPU and IBM POWER9 CPU) show respective average speedups of 2× and 4× when mapping one Message Passing Interface (MPI) per GPU. An average speedup of 1.4× was achieved using all 42 CPU cores and 6 GPUs on a Summit node (with 7 MPI ranks per GPU). However, the GPU speedup over the 42 CPU cores remains relatively unchanged (∼ 1.3×) even when using 4 MPI ranks per GPU (24 ranks in total) and 3 MPI ranks per GPU (18 ranks in total). This corresponds to a 35 %–40 % decrease in both simulation time and usage of resources. Due to too many local scalars and arrays in the W3SRCEMD subroutine and the huge WW3 memory requirement, GPU performance is currently limited by the data transfer bandwidth between the CPU and the GPU. Ideally, OpenACC routine directives could be used to further improve performance. However, W3SRCEMD would require significant code refactoring to make this possible. We also discuss how the trade-off between the occupancy, register, and latency affects the GPU performance of WW3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Substorm warnings - An ISEE-3 real time data system

The use of solar wind measurements made by ISEE-3 in its halo orbit around the L1 libration point to predict the onsets of magnetospheric substorms and geomagnetic storms is discussed. Consideration is given to the limitations on the predictive ability of the satellite measurements set by the bulk solar wind velocity, the elliptical orbit of the satellite and the correlation lengths of the magnetic field and the solar wind plasma. The ISEE-3 real-time data system is presented, with attention given to the ground receiving stations, the NASCOM communications system, the Multisatellite Operations Control Center and Information Processing Division at the Goddard Space Flight Center, the link between Goddard and the NOAA Space Environmental Services Center, and the NOAA Space Environment Laboratory data acquisition and display data system, which includes displays allowing storm forecasts. It is noted that the entire system should be operational by March, 1980.

Tsurutani, B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Environmental Forcing of Super Typhoon Paka's (1997) Latent Heat Structure

The distribution and intensity of total (i.e., combined stratified and convective processes) rainrate/latent heat release (LHR) were derived for tropical cyclone Paka during the period 9-21 December, 1997 from the F-10, F-11, F-13, and F-14 Defense Meteorological Satellite Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission Microwave Imager observations. These observations were frequent enough to capture three episodes of inner core convective bursts that preceded periods of rapid intensification and a convective rainband (CRB) cycle. During these periods of convective bursts, satellite sensors revealed that the rainrates/LHR: 1) increased within the inner eye wall region; 2) were mainly convectively generated (nearly a 65% contribution), 3) propagated inwards; 4) extended upwards within the middle and upper-troposphere, and 5) became electrically charged. These factors may have caused the eye wall region to become more buoyant within the middle and upper-troposphere, creating greater cyclonic angular momentum, and, thereby, warming the center and intensifying the system. Radiosonde measurements from Kwajalein Atoll and Guam, sea surface temperature observations, and the European Center for Medium Range Forecast analyses were used to examine the necessary and sufficient condition for initiating and maintaining these inner core convective bursts. For example, the necessary conditions such as the atmospheric thermodynamics (i.e., cold tropopause temperatures, moist troposphere, and warm SSTs [greater than 26 deg]) suggested that the atmosphere was ideal for Paka's maximum potential intensity (MPI) to approach super-typhoon strength. Further, Paka encountered weak vertical wind shear (less than 15 m/s ) before interacting with the westerlies on 21 December. The sufficient conditions, on the other hand, appeared to have some influence on Paka's convective burst, but the horizontal moisture flux convergence values in the outer core were weaker than some of the previously examined tropical cyclones. Also, the upper tropospheric outflow generation of eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence was 4D much less than that found during moderate tropical cyclone/trough interaction. These results indicated how important the external necessary condition and the internal forcing (i.e., CRB cycle) were in generating Paka's convective bursts as compared to the external sufficient forcing mechanisms found in higher latitude tropical cyclones. Later, as Paka began to interact with the westerlies, both the necessary (i.e., strong vertical shear and colder SSTs) and sufficient (i.e., dry air intrusion) external forcing mechanisms helped to decrease Paka's rainrate.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗