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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

Three-dimensional computation of mixing of transverse injector in a ducted supersonic airstream

Numerical solutions of the three-dimensional mass-averaged elliptic Navier-Stokes equations, including species transport, are obtained for nonreacting, turbulent, mixing flow fields for the case of transverse sonic injection of a secondary gas into a supersonic airstream through a circular orifice injector. Results are presented for flow through a constant area duct and through a duct with a rearward-facing step upstream of the injector. The equations are numerically integrated using MacCormack's explicit method and turbulence is included using the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic eddy viscosity model. In the species transport and energy equations, diffusion coefficients based on Fick's law and an assumption of unit Lewis number are applied. The computations were performed on a CDC-VPS-32 (extended version of Cyber-205) using a grid consisting of approximately 200,000 points. The computed results are compared with experimentally observed penetration and spreading boundaries for an injected gas at two dynamic pressure ratios. Three-dimensional flow field structures are dipicted in terms of static pressure, mass fractions of species and velocity vectors.

Uenishi, K.↗

Can MACHOs probe the shape of the galaxy halo ?

Microlensing searches in our galaxy have recently discovered several candidates in the direction of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We study the prospects for such searches to yield useful information about the flattening of the Galaxy dark matter halo, using a self-consistent oblate halo model and allowing for the possibility of misalignment between the disk and halo symmetry axes. The microlensing optical depth for the LMC, tau(LMC), depends sensitively on the disk-halo tilt angle in the Milky Way, as does the ratio tau(SMC)/tau(LMC). If the tilt angle is as large as 30 deg, a much larger spread in values for tau(LMC) is consistent with rotation curve constraints than previously thought. Disk-halo tilt and halo flattening do not significantly affect the massive compact halo object (MACHO) masses inferred from event durations.

Frieman, Joshua↗

Tracking Avian Reservoirs of Arboviruses using Remote Sensing and Radiotelemetry

Encephalitis is caused by a virus that is transmitted by mosquitoes between mammalian hosts. The virus is closely related to the West Nile virus (WNV), which started in New York in 1999, and has since spread to 25 states. Like encephalitis, WNV is vectored by mosquitoes, and the primary hosts are birds; humans are accidental, or'dead-end' hosts. Very little is understood about the behavior of these bird populations, and how they intersect - both in time and in space - with mosquito populations. Exploring these relationships is the first step in developing models for encephalitis and WNV transmission risk. This project combines remotely sensed data with radiotelemetry to create a spatiotemporal map of encephalitis viral activity in bird and mosquito populations in the Sacramento Valley of California. Specifically, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were used to characterize habitats utilized by both avian viral reservoirs and the mosquitoes that vector encephalitis. Radiotelemetry and serosurveys (blood) were then used to spatially and temporally track the patterns of infection. The project uses Landsat ETM+ multitemporal satellite data to characterize habitats utilized by both birds and the mosquito vectors. Mist nets were used to sample members of individual flocks of blackbirds and cowbirds over a period of several months; these birds were then bled to assess their viral status, banded, and fitted with transmitters. Radiotelemetry was used to spatially and temporally track the distribution of banded birds and their associated flocks. The movement of these indicator flocks were compared with the location of remotely sensed (adult and larval) mosquito habitats to determine the intersection of bird's and vectors; this is key in understanding where and when transmission occurs from bird to bird, as well as from bird to mammal, via mosquito. The relationships found during the project are being used to generate a model of encephalitis transmission risk in California.

Beck, L.↗

A Method for Simulation of Rotorcraft Fly-In Noise for Human Response Studies

The low frequency content of rotorcraft noise allows it to be heard over great distances. This factor contributes to the disruption of natural quiet in national parks and wilderness areas, and can lead to annoyance in populated areas. Further, it can result in detection at greater distances compared to higher altitude fixed wing aircraft operations. Human response studies conducted in the field are made difficult since test conditions are difficult to control. Specifically, compared to fixed wing aircraft, the source noise itself may significantly vary over time even for nominally steady flight conditions, and the propagation of that noise is more variable due to low altitude meteorological conditions. However, it is possible to create the salient features of rotorcraft fly-in noise in a more controlled laboratory setting through recent advancements made in source noise synthesis, propagation modeling and reproduction. This paper concentrates on the first two of these. In particular, the rotorcraft source noise pressure time history is generated using single blade passage signatures from the main and tail rotors. These may be obtained from either acoustic source noise predictions or back-propagation of ground-based measurements. Propagation effects include atmospheric absorption, spreading loss, Doppler shift, and ground plane reflections.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

Complexity Phase Diagram for Interacting and Long-Range Bosonic Hamiltonians

Here, we classify phases of a bosonic lattice model based on the computational complexity of classically simulating the system. We show that the system transitions from being classically simulable to classically hard to simulate as it evolves in time, extending previous results to include on-site number-conserving interactions and long-range hopping. Specifically, we construct a complexity phase diagram with easy and hard “phases” and derive analytic bounds on the location of the phase boundary with respect to the evolution time and the degree of locality. We find that the location of the phase transition is intimately related to upper bounds on the spread of quantum correlations and protocols to transfer quantum information. Remarkably, although the location of the transition point is unchanged by on-site interactions, the nature of the transition point does change. Specifically, we find that there are two kinds of transitions, sharp and coarse, broadly corresponding to interacting and noninteracting bosons, respectively. Our Letter motivates future studies of complexity in many-body systems and its interplay with the associated physical phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Intra-Cell Thermal Front Propagation in Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Issues

Thermal runaway (TR), a critical failure mode in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), poses significant safety risks and hinders wider application of LIBs. TR typically begins at a localized heat source and spreads across the cell. Understanding thermal front propagation (TFP) characteristics, such as front and velocity, is crucial for assessing energy release and temperature distribution for battery hazardous estimation. Recent studies assume that TR within cells propagates at a near-constant velocity, based on the reaction kinetics and thermal properties. Here, in this study, an intra-battery TR model is further proposed and it indicates that TFP velocity stabilizes when the front is distanced from the heat source. Theoretical estimates for propagation velocity and front are developed and validated through numerical simulations and experimental tests from the NREL Battery Failure Databank. The energy release rate during TFP and the impact of preheating based on a point heat source are explored. This work clarifies the long-standing clouds of the thermal font propagation behaviors within the single cell, highlights the power and beauty of mathematics modeling to describe the complicated thermal behaviors, and provides important guidelines for thermal hazardous understanding for next-generation batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Fundamental Processes and Practical Considerations of Lead Chalcogenide Mesocrystals Formed via Self-Assembly and Directed Attachment of Nanocrystals at a Fluid Interface

Significant advances in the synthesis and processing of colloidal nanocrystals have given scientists and engineers access to a vast library of building blocks with precisely defined size, shape, and composition. These materials have inspired exciting prospects to enable bottom-up fabrication of programmable materials with properties by design. Successfully assembling and connecting the building blocks into superstructures in which constituent nanocrystals can purposefully interact requires robust understanding of and control over a complex interplay of dynamic physicochemical processes. Fluid interfaces provide an advantageous experimental workbench to both probe and control these processes. Despite the ostensible simplicity of fabricating nanocrystal assemblies at a fluid interface, sensitivity to processing conditions and limited reproducibility have underscored the complexity of this process. In situ studies have provided mechanistic insights into the competing dynamics of key subprocesses including solvent spreading and evaporation, superlattice formation, ligand detachment kinetics, and nanocrystal attachment. Understanding how these subprocesses influence the complex choreography of self-assembly, structure transformation, and oriented attachment processes presents a rich research challenge. In this context, we present a detailed methodology for self-assembly and attachment of lead chalcogenide nanocrystals at a liquid–gas interface as a model system for the fabrication of mono- and multilayer cubic connected superlattices. We discuss key experimental parameters such as the characteristics of the building blocks and processing conditions and detailed steps from colloidal nanocrystal injection to superlattice transfer. Furthermore, we hope that this Methods/Protocols paper will provide guidance for future advances in the exciting path toward bringing the prospect of nanocrystal-based programmable materials to fruition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analysis and documentation of QCSEE (Quiet Clean Short-haul Experimental Engine) over-the-wing exhaust system development

A static scale model test program was conducted in the static test area of the NASA-Langley 9.14- by 18.29 m(30- by 60-ft) Full-Scale Wind Tunnel Facility to develop an over-the-wing (OTW) nozzle and reverser configuration for the Quiet Clean Short-Haul Experimental Engine (QCSEE). Three nozzles and one basic reverser configuration were tested over the QCSEE takeoff and approach power nozzle pressure ratio range between 1.1 and 1.3. The models were scaled to 8.53% of QCSEE engine size and tested behind two 13.97-cm (5.5-in.) diameter tip-turbine-driven fan simulators coupled in tandem. An OTW nozzle and reverser configuration was identified which satisfies the QCSEE experimental engine requirements in terms of nozzle cycle area variation capability and reverse thrust level, and provides good jet flow spreading over a wing upper surface for achievement of high propulsive lift performance.

Ammer, R. C.↗

High spatial resolution 10 micron imaging of IRC + 10216

Precise high-resolution 10-micron images of the carbon star IRC + 10216 have been obtained with a scanned linear array. The low noise and high dynamic range of these images permit deconvolution of the telescope point-spread function, revealing the radial brightness distribution of the circumstellar dust shell: approximate reflection symmetry is found in west-east scans, with a distinct division into two components of diameter about 0.40 and 2.2 arcsec. It is shown that this morphology is consistent with published interferometric data that had cast doubt upon an earlier, idealized two-component model. The observed brightness distribution implies that the circumstellar dust density may deviate substantially from the 1/r squared radial dependence expected for spherically symmetric outflow with constant velocity and constant rate of mass loss.

Bloemhof, E. E.↗

The Global Perspective on the Evolution of Solids in a Protoplanetary Disk

It is currently thought that planets around solar-type stars form by the accumulation of solid matter entrained in a gaseous, turbulent protoplanetary disk. We have developed a model designed to simulate the part of this process that starts from small particles suspended in the gaseous disk at the end of the formation stage, and ends up with most of the solid material aggregated into 1-10-km planetesimals. The major novelty of our approach is its emphasis on the global, comprehensive treatment of the problem, as our model simultaneously keeps track of the evolution of gas and solid particles due to gas-solid coupling, coagulation, sedimentation, and evaporation/condensation. The result of our calculations is the radial distribution of solid material circumnavigating a star in the form of a planetesimal swarm. Such a distribution should well approximate the radial apportionment of condensed components of the planets spread over the radial extent of the mature planetary system. Therefore we view our calculations as an attempt to predict the large-scale architecture of planetary systems and to assess their potential diversity. In particular, we have found that some initial conditions lead to all solids being lost to the star, but we can also identify initial conditions leading to a radial distribution of solid material quite reminiscent of what is found in our solar system.

Stepinski, T. F.↗

Global MHD Simulations of the Substorm Current Wedge and Dipolarization

This paper presents results from global MHD simulations showing the evolution of the plasma and field in the near-Earth tail during the substorm phases. The late growth phase is characterized by pronounced thinning of the plasma sheet and stretching of the field in the region between approximately -6 R(sub E) to -30 R(sub E). A pre-existing X-line moves tailward to beyond -50 R(sub E). Close to onset, a new X-line forms near -18 R(sub E) in the midnight sector. Earthward flows emanating from this X-line dipolarize the near-Earth field, leading to a reduction of the cross-tail current in the midnight sector, but not elsewhere. The magnetic shear between the dipolarized field near midnight and the stretched field elsewhere is equivalent to currents flowing through the ionosphere in a region I sense, and so forming the current wedge. Later in the expansion phase, the dipolarization spreads in local time at a rate of about 0.3 hours MLT per minute. A strong electric field and a rapid increase of the plasma pressure is associated with the dipolarization. Near midnight the dipolarization appears to occur at all distances between 6.6 and 13 R(sub E) at the same time within the resolution (+/- 2 min) of our model. However, the model results indicate that dipolarization starts before ground onset in the pre-midnight sector and propagates both earthward and eastward.THus, dipolarization may be much more complex than simple earthward/tailward and/or azimuthal expansion.

Raeder, J.↗

On Estimating Provenances of Lunar Highland Materials

That even relatively small impacts can spread material across the face of the Moon is evident from the rays of Tycho. Tycho ejecta triggered the landslide that produced the light mantle deposit at Apollo 17 and perhaps excavated the Central Valley craters there. Basin-sized impacts appear to follow the same scaling laws as smaller impacts, as indicated by the satisfaction of a geophysical model. These giant impacts rearranged huge amounts of premare material, complicating the determination of provenance of materials collected from the highlands. We have developed a model to estimate the probability that material at a particular location might derive from a given basin or large crater. This model is based on crater scaling laws, and effects of secondary cratering. Because it accounts for the volume of primary ejecta from the basin-forming transient craters and the excavating and mixing effects of these ejecta with the substrate onto which they fall, it gives much thicker deposits than an early work. Our modeling takes into account the distribution of sizes of primary ejecta fragments (PriFrags) to obtain the probability at a given site for a deposit of a particular thickness and with a fraction of PriFrags.

Haskin, Larry A.↗

Effects of Irrigation on Global Climate During the 20th Century

Various studies have documented the effects of modern ]day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time ]varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time ]varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June.August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century fs end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December.February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near ]surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation ]climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.

Puma, M. J.↗

A Framework for Simulation of Aircraft Flyover Noise Through a Non-Standard Atmosphere

This paper describes a new framework for the simulation of aircraft flyover noise through a non-standard atmosphere. Central to the framework is a ray-tracing algorithm which defines multiple curved propagation paths, if the atmosphere allows, between the moving source and listener. Because each path has a different emission angle, synthesis of the sound at the source must be performed independently for each path. The time delay, spreading loss and absorption (ground and atmosphere) are integrated along each path, and applied to each synthesized aircraft noise source to simulate a flyover. A final step assigns each resulting signal to its corresponding receiver angle for the simulation of a flyover in a virtual reality environment. Spectrograms of the results from a straight path and a curved path modeling assumption are shown. When the aircraft is at close range, the straight path results are valid. Differences appear especially when the source is relatively far away at shallow elevation angles. These differences, however, are not significant in common sound metrics. While the framework used in this work performs off-line processing, it is conducive to real-time implementation.

Arntzen, Michael↗

Application of Interval Predictor Models to Space Radiation Shielding

This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (i) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ii) the predicted output interval, and (iii) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certi cate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data over tting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the ux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

Abstract COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗