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DOE OSTI2015

Inventory Uncertainty Quantification using TENDL Covariance Data in Fispact-II

The new inventory code Fispact-II provides predictions of inventory, radiological quantities and their uncertainties using nuclear data covariance information. Central to the method is a novel fast pathways search algorithm using directed graphs. The pathways output provides (1) an aid to identifying important reactions, (2) fast estimates of uncertainties, (3) reduced models that retain important nuclides and reactions for use in the code's Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis module. Described are the methods that are being implemented for improving uncertainty predictions, quantification and propagation using the covariance data that the recent nuclear data libraries contain. In the TENDL library, above the upper energy of the resolved resonance range, a Monte Carlo method in which the covariance data come from uncertainties of the nuclear model calculations is used. The nuclear data files are read directly by FISPACT-II without any further intermediate processing. Variance and covariance data are processed and used by FISPACT-II to compute uncertainties in collapsed cross sections, and these are in turn used to predict uncertainties in inventories and all derived radiological data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

High-yield hydrogen production from biomass by in vitro metabolic engineering: Mixed sugars coutilization and kinetic modeling

The use of hydrogen (H 2 ) as a fuel offers enhanced energy conversion efficiency and tremendous potential to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, but producing it in a distributed, carbon-neutral, low-cost manner requires new technologies. Herein we demonstrate the complete conversion of glucose and xylose from plant biomass to H 2 and CO 2 based on an in vitro synthetic enzymatic pathway. Glucose and xylose were simultaneously converted to H 2 with a yield of two H 2 per carbon, the maximum possible yield. Parameters of a nonlinear kinetic model were fitted with experimental data using a genetic algorithm, and a global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the enzymes that have the greatest impact on reaction rate and yield. After optimizing enzyme loadings using this model, volumetric H 2 productivity was increased 3-fold to 32 mmol H 2 ∙L ₋1 ∙h ₋1 . The productivity was further enhanced to 54 mmol H 2 ∙L ₋1 ∙h ₋1 by increasing reaction temperature, substrate, and enzyme concentrations—an increase of 67-fold compared with the initial studies using this method. The production of hydrogen from locally produced biomass is a promising means to achieve global green energy production.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-524: In-Vivo Diode Dosimetry Proton Therapy Range Verification Validation Study for Pediatric CSI

Purpose: With the aim of reducing acute esophageal radiation toxicity in pediatric patients receiving craniospinal irradiation (CSI), we investigated the implementation of an in-vivo, adaptive proton therapy range verification methodology. Simulation experiments and in-phantom measurements were conducted to validate the range verification technique for this clinical application. Methods: A silicon diode array system has been developed and experimentally tested in phantom for passively scattered proton beam range verification for a prostate treatment case by correlating properties of the detector signal to the water equivalent path length (WEPL). We propose to extend the methodology to verify range distal to the vertebral body for pediatric CSI cases by placing this small volume dosimeter in the esophagus of the anesthetized patient immediately prior to treatment. A set of calibration measurements was performed to establish a time signal to WEPL fit for a “scout” beam in a solid water phantom. Measurements are compared against Monte Carlo simulation in GEANT4 using the Tool for Particle Simulation (TOPAS). Results: Measurements with the diode array in a spread out Bragg peak of 14 cm modulation width and 15 cm range (177 MeV passively scattered beam) in solid water were successfully validated against proton fluence rate simulations in TOPAS. The resulting calibration curve allows for a sensitivity analysis of detector system response with dose rate in simulation and with individual diode position through simulation on patient CT data. Conclusion: Feasibility has been shown for the application of this range verification methodology to pediatric CSI. An in-vivo measurement to determine the WEPL to the inner surface of the esophagus will allow for personalized adjustment of the treatment plan to ensure sparing of the esophagus while confirming target coverage. A Toltz acknowledges partial support by the CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Grant number: 432290)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Predicting Material Response with Large Number of Parameters: Application to Creep Prediction in Ferritic-Martensitic Steels Using Combined Crystal Plasticity and Grain Boundary Models

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for the physics-based model prediction of material response with a large number of parameters. The application problem presented in this work is that of predicting creep in Grade 91 steel at 600°C. The material response is defined with a physically based microstructural model with constitutive equations emulating several observed phenomena in Grade 91 and embodied into an explicit geometry mesoscale finite element model for prior austenite grains and grain boundaries. Creep within the grains and in grain boundaries are represented by crystal plasticity for dislocation motion and a physics-based model for cavity growth and nucleation, respectively. The creep behavior of this material is influenced by several parameters, some of which have a wide range of variation based on experimental data. UQ combined with microstructural modeling can discover the core microstructural causes of experimental variability, leading to improved materials with lower variability in critical long-term material properties. In this study, we investigate the model's uncertainty to identify material properties that may be modified during production to increase creep life and analyze different components of the crystal plasticity model for improvements. For this purpose, a quantity of interest is defined as time to minimum creep rate, which correlates well to the creep failure of the material. A deep neural network model was trained and validated to be used as a surrogate for the finite element model. Then, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed on the surrogate model to find the Sobol indices of the input parameters in respect to the output quantity of interest. The Sobol indices are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion is used on the reduced basis models to propagate the uncertainty from the input parameters to the quantity of interest using the deep neural network surrogate model. These results are benchmarked against uncertainty propagation using Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the UQ performed through the reduced basis model captures almost all the uncertainty in the model with significantly fewer simulations, making it possible to perform the UQ directly via simulations with the finite element model rather than surrogate machine-learned models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Trajectory-Driven Algorithm for Differentiating SRB Measures on Unstable Manifolds

Sinai-Ruelle-Bowen (SRB) measures are limiting stationary distributions describing the statistical behavior of chaotic dynamical systems. Directional derivatives of SRB measure densities conditioned on unstable manifolds are critical in the sensitivity analysis of hyperbolic chaos. These derivatives, known as the SRB density gradients, are by-products of the regularization of Lebesgue integrals appearing in the original linear response expression. In this paper, we propose a novel trajectory- driven algorithm for computing the SRB density gradient defined for systems with high-dimensional unstable manifolds. We apply the concept of measure preservation together with the chain rule on smooth manifolds. Due to the recursive one-step nature of our derivations, the proposed procedure is memory-efficient and can be naturally integrated with existing Monte Carlo schemes widely used in computational chaotic dynamics. Here, we numerically show the exponential convergence of our scheme, analyze the computational cost, and present its use in the context of Monte Carlo integration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results for the 3-D pipe, the single pin THORS mesh, and the 7-pin bundle mesh, respectively.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2014

CFD simulation of MSW combustion and SNCR in a commercial incinerator

Highlights: • Presented a CFD scheme for modeling MSW incinerator including SNCR process. • Performed a sensitivity analysis of SNCR operating conditions. • Non-uniform distributions of gas velocity, temperature and NO{sub x} in the incinerator. • The injection position of reagent was critical for a desirable performance of SNCR. • A NSR 1.5 was recommended as a compromise of NO{sub x} reduction rates and NH{sub 3} slip. - Abstract: A CFD scheme was presented for modeling municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in a moving-grate incinerator, including the in-bed burning of solid wastes, the out-of-bed burnout of gaseous volatiles, and the selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) process between urea (CO(NH{sub 2}){sub 2}) and NO{sub x}. The in-bed calculations provided 2-D profiles of the gas–solid temperatures and the gas species concentrations along the bed length, which were then used as inlet conditions for the out-of-bed computations. The over-bed simulations provided the profiles of incident radiation heat flux on the top of bed. A 3-dimensional benchmark simulation was conducted with a 750 t/day commercial incinerator using the present coupling scheme incorporating with a reduced SNCR reduction mechanism. Numerical tests were performed to investigate the effects of operating parameters such as injection position, injection speed and the normalized stoichiometric ratio (NSR) on the SNCR performance. The simulation results showed that the distributions of gas velocity, temperature and NO{sub x} concentration were highly non-uniform, which made the injection position one of the most sensitive operating parameters influencing the SNCR performance of moving grate incinerators. The simulation results also showed that multi-layer injections were needed to meet the EU2000 standard, and a NSR 1.5 was suggested as a compromise of a satisfactory NO{sub x} reduction and reasonable NH{sub 3} slip rates. This work provided useful guides to the design and operation of SNCR process in moving-grate incinerators.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2012

100% MOX BWR experimental program design using multi-parameter representative

A new multiparameter representative approach for the design of Advanced full MOX BWR core physics experimental programs is developed. The approach is based on sensitivity analysis of integral parameters to nuclear data, and correlations among different integral parameters. The representativeness method is here used to extract a quantitative relationship between a particular integral response of an experimental mock-up and the same response in a reference project to be designed. The study is applied to the design of the 100% MOX BASALA ABWR experimental program in the EOLE facility. The adopted scheme proposes an original approach to the problem, going from the initial 'microscopic' pin-cells integral parameters to the whole 'macroscopic' assembly integral parameters. This approach enables to collect complementary information necessary to optimize the initial design and to meet target accuracy on the integral parameters to be measured. The study has demonstrated the necessity of new fuel pins fabrication, fulfilling minimal costs requirements, to meet acceptable representativeness on local power distribution. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-334: Dosimetric Impacts of Organ at Risk (OAR) Contour Errors in Prostate Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) Planning: A Sensitivity Study

Purpose: To investigate the dosimetric impacts of OAR contour errors in prostate VMAT planning with a sensitivity analysis method. Methods: Ten randomly selected prostate VMAT patients were used to simulate OAR contour error in rectum and bladder. For each OAR 12 even spaced contour control points were selected in every three slices. For each simulation, only one of the control points was simulated to move inwards or outwards by up to 6 voxels and coordinates of adjacent voxels to that moving control point were moved accordingly with a 3D-spline smooth function. An in-house software was used to predict OARs dosimetric endpoints based on geometric relationship between PTV and OAR. In this study, the V75, V70, V65, V60 of rectum and V80, V75, V70, V65 of bladder with and without perturbed contours were calculated and compared. Results: The percentage of OAR dose volume difference around the reference OAR contours were plotted as iso-error lines overlaid on CT images. The significant difference was shown in OAR contours adjacent to the PTV where high dose gradient exists. When one of the 12 points adjacent to the PTV moved up to 6 voxels, maximum errors of 1.99%, 2.46%, 2.89%, and 3.19% were found in V75, V70, V65, and V60 of the rectum, and 1.59%, 1.67%, 1.87%, and 1.90% were found in V80, V75, V70, and V65 of the bladder, respectively. Conclusion: We can quantify the dosimetric impact of OAR contouring error by evaluating the percentage of OAR dose volume changes in prostate VMAT planning. For the adaptive radiation therapy, the iso-error lines can provide the planner a guideline that which portion of contour needed to be checked carefully because dosimetric sensitivity of contour errors are different for different part of contours.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Mechanistic Modeling of Microtopographic Impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes in an Alaskan Tundra Ecosystem Using the CLM-Microbe Model

Spatial heterogeneities in soil hydrology have been confirmed as a key control on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the Arctic tundra ecosystem. In this study, we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model, CLM-Microbe, to examine the microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes across seven landscape types in Utqia&#289vik, Alaska: trough, low-centered polygon (LCP) center, LCP transition, LCP rim, high-centered polygon (HCP) center, HCP transition, and HCP rim. We first validated the CLM-Microbe model against static-chamber measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in 2013 for three landscape types: trough, LCP center, and LCP rim. Model application showed that low-elevation and thus wetter landscape types (i.e., trough, transitions, and LCP center) had larger CH 4 emissions rates with greater seasonal variations than high-elevation and drier landscape types (rims and HCP center). Sensitivity analysis indicated that substrate availability for methanogenesis (acetate, CO 2 + H 2 ) is the most important factor determining CH 4 emission, and vegetation physiological properties largely affect the net ecosystem carbon exchange and ecosystem respiration in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Modeled CH 4 emissions for different microtopographic features were upscaled to the eddy covariance (EC) domain with an area-weighted approach before validation against EC-measured CH 4 fluxes. The model underestimated the EC-measured CH 4 flux by 20% and 25% at daily and hourly time steps, suggesting the importance of the time step in reporting CH 4 flux. The strong microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes call for a model-data integration framework for better understanding and predicting carbon flux in the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Toward a mechanistic modeling of nitrogen limitation on vegetation dynamics

Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO{sub 2} concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO{sub 2} concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of V{sub c,max} (maximum carboxylation rate) and J{sub max} (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO{sub 2} concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks to climate in Earth system models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Technical Report: Mathematical Foundations for Uncertainty Quantification in Materials Design

We developed path-wise information theory-based and goal-oriented sensitivity analysis and parameter identification methods for complex high-dimensional dynamics and in particular of non-equilibrium extended molecular systems. The combination of these novel methodologies provided the first methods in the literature which are capable to handle UQ questions for stochastic complex systems with some or all of the following features: (a) multi-scale stochastic models such as (bio)chemical reaction networks, with a very large number of parameters, (b) spatially distributed systems such as Kinetic Monte Carlo or Langevin Dynamics, (c) non-equilibrium processes typically associated with coupled physico-chemical mechanisms, driven boundary conditions, hybrid micro-macro systems, etc. A particular computational challenge arises in simulations of multi-scale reaction networks and molecular systems. Mathematical techniques were applied to in silico prediction of novel materials with emphasis on the effect of microstructure on model uncertainty quantification (UQ). We outline acceleration methods to make calculations of real chemistry feasible followed by two complementary tasks on structure optimization and microstructure-induced UQ.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2011

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for the Mid-Columbia Basin

The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region, which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area (Figure 1) that includes the Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. This report presents the results of the OSSE task. The specific objective is to test strategies for future deployment of observing systems in order to suggest the best and most efficient ways to improve wind forecasting at BPA wind farm locations. OSSEs have been used for many years in meteorology to evaluate the potential impact of proposed observing systems, determine tradeoffs in instrument design, and study the most effective data assimilation methodologies to incorporate the new observations into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (Atlas 1997; Lord 1997). For this project, a series of OSSEs will allow consideration of the impact of new observing systems of various types and in various locations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Life cycle assessment of TV sets in China: A case study of the impacts of CRT monitors

Along with the rapid increase in both production and use of TV sets in China, there is an increasing awareness of the environmental impacts related to the accelerating mass production, electricity use, and waste management of these sets. This paper aims to describe the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the environmental performance of Chinese TV sets. An assessment of the TV set device (focusing on the Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) monitor) was carried out using a detailed modular LCA based on the international standards of the ISO 14040 series. The LCA was constructed using SimaPro software version 7.2 and expressed with the Eco-indicator' 99 life cycle impact assessment method. For a sensitivity analysis of the overall LCA results, the CML method was used in order to estimate the influence of the choice of the assessment method on the results. Life cycle inventory information was compiled by Ecoinvent 2.2 databases, combined with literature and field investigations on the current Chinese situation. The established LCA study shows that the use stage of such devices has the highest environmental impact, followed by the manufacturing stage. In the manufacturing stage, the CRT and the Printed Circuit Board (PCB) are those components contributing the most environmental impacts. During the use phase, the environmental impacts are due entirely to the methods of electricity generation used to run them, since no other aspects were taken into account for this phase. The final processing step-the end-of-life stage-can lead to a clear environmental benefit when the TV sets are processed through the formal dismantling enterprises in China.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Multi-region Modeling of Daily Global Solar Radiation with Artificial Intelligence Ensemble

Solar radiation data are crucial for the design and evaluation of solar energy systems, climatic studies, water resources management, estimating crop productivity, etc. As so, for locations where direct measurements are not available, reliable models may be developed to estimate solar radiation from more readily available data. In this study, two artificial intelligence (AI)-based models including artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, three temperature-based empirical models including Meza–Varas, Hargreaves–Samani, and Chen, and a conventional multi-linear regression (MLR) model were employed for multi-region daily global solar radiation estimation for Iraq. To ensure appropriate selection of input variables, sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the dominant parameters. Finally, two ensemble approaches, neural average ensemble and simple average ensemble, were applied to improve the performance of the single models. For this purpose, daily meteorological data of maximum temperature (T{sub max}), minimum temperature (T{sub min}), mean temperature (T{sub mean}), relative humidity (R{sub H}), and wind speed (U{sub 2}) were obtained from January 2006 to December 2016 from four major cities in Iraq representing, north, west, south, and east regions. The results revealed that temperatures (T{sub max}, T{sub mean}, T{sub min}) and relative humidity are the dominant parameters. While temperature-based empirical models and MLR model could be employed to achieve reliable results, AI-based models are superior in performance to other models. Also promising improvement in daily global solar radiation modeling could be achieved by model ensemble. The results of this study affirmed that the provided ensemble approaches can increase the performance of single models up to 19.19%, 7.59%, and 16.81% in training, validation, and testing steps, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗