Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Sensitivity Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of aging in δ -Pu

We have developed a first-passage kinetic Monte Carlo approach for materials aging to investigate the sensitivity of void swelling to model parameters, including helium bubble density and size distribution. In addition to explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of individual point defects, bubbles, and voids, our approach can simulate total doses equivalent to 100 years of natural aging on statistically representative volumes of materials. This technique enables us to study the effects on swelling and radiation damage evolution due to temperature and dose rate (as altered in artificially aged experiments), differences in effective interaction radii between vacancies and interstitials, and varying defect diffusion activation energies, while providing more detailed information than previous rate-equation based approaches. In conclusion, our results indicate that spatial effects that are not modeled in mean-field rate theories could play a significant role in void swelling initiation and growth for certain regimes of model parameters.

Actinides↗
DOE OSTI2026

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

OASIS: Optimal Analysis-Specific Importance Sampling for event generation

We propose a technique called Optimal Analysis-Specific Importance Sampling (OASIS) to reduce the number of simulated events required for a high-energy experimental analysis to reach a target sensitivity. We provide recipes to obtain the optimal sampling distributions which preferentially focus the event generation on the regions of phase space with high utility to the experimental analyses. OASIS leads to a conservation of resources at all stages of the Monte Carlo pipeline, including full-detector simulation, and is complementary to approaches which seek to speed-up the simulation pipeline.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

High energy neutrino astronomy with MACRO

A large area underground detector with accurate muon tracking and directionality can be used for the search of extraterrestrial sources of high energy neutrinos. The sensitivity of the MACRO detector to possible sources of neutrinos was evaluated with a Monte-Carlo simulation of the neutrino interaction in the rock and and of the detection in the real apparatus. Two categories of possible neutrino sources are discussed in comparison with the detector sensitivity. Promising candidate objects for this search appear to be the two binary X-ray sources in the southern key Vela X1 and LMC X4, which are known to emit gamma rays up to the 10,000 TeV region.

Auriemma, G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the Phonon Collection Efficiency in KIPMDs

Kinetic inductance phonon-mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microcalorimeters that use microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs) to read out phonon signals in the device substrate. In order to improve the design of these detectors, we need to understand the effect of various detector design elements on the physical processes that take place within the detector through simulation efforts. One figure of merit for KIPM detectors is the phonon collection efficiency, $\eta_{ph]$, defined as the ratio of phonon energy detected by the sensitive element in the detector and the energy deposited by incident phonons in the substrate. Comparing the phonon collection efficiency obtained in simulation and in experiment for the same detector geometry provides insight to physical processes in the detector, such as phonon absorption at substrate-sensor interfaces and phonon loss to non-sensitive detector elements. This work models the phonon collection efficiency in two KIPM detectors with different geometries, one located at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboraory, the other located at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory.

Dang, Stella Q.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nth-plant supply: corn stover supplies and costs in a fleet of biorefineries

Feedstock cost and cost variability is expected to increase with the number of biorefineries. To quantify this effect, this spatial-economic analysis simulates feedstock cost and cost variability of an industry based on corn stover as a function of the number of biorefineries. Results are reported for nine scenarios (a base case and sensitivity analysis of four variables – harvest efficiency, sustainability constraints, opportunity cost, and corn grain yield) under deterministic and stochastic simulations, assuming biorefineries using 658 000 Mg (725 000 tons) year- 1 of corn stover in 2019. The resulting supply curves are highly elastic (i.e. little change in cost) for the first 50 of the 121 biorefineries, with price increases in subsequent biorefineries depending on scenario. In the base-case deterministic scenario, weighted-average stover costs are $66 Mg -1 ($60 ton- 1 ), $69 Mg -1 ($62 ton -1 ), and $156 Mg -1 ($142 ton -1 ), at the first, 60th, and 121st biorefineries, respectively. The stochastic simulations, subject to observed 30-year corn yield variability, follow a similar pattern, with price distributions that vary by scenario. The base-case stochastic simulations illustrate minimal cost variability for the first 60 biorefineries, but rapid increases in cost variability in the second half of potential biorefineries, with similar patterns observed in the other scenarios. Of the four variables explored, price was most sensitive to harvest efficiency, followed by sustainability constraints, corn yield, and opportunity cost. Results suggest that, under conventional logistics, about half of the US corn stover resource is reliably available with minimum cost increase and variability. Interactive visualization is available at https://doi.org/10.11578/1828779.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Ice Number Concentration on the Evolution of Boundary Layer Clouds During Arctic Marine Cold‐Air Outbreaks

Abstract Marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs) are crucial for Arctic Ocean heat loss, featuring convective cloud rolls that transition into convection cells downstream. Understanding factors controlling this transformation is the key for improving MCAO cloud representation in climate models. This study employs large‐eddy simulations to investigate how cloud ice number concentrations () affect cloud evolution using a case from the Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) campaign. The simulations, performed in a Lagrangian framework following an air mass trajectory, are driven by ERA5 reanalysis data. Initially, all simulations produce similar cloud patterns, but higher leads to earlier breakup of cloud rolls. Between 4 and 10 hr, surface precipitation rates are similar across simulations, but precipitation initiates earlier, and the cloud‐base precipitation rates are higher when is higher. The stronger precipitation evaporation leads to increased stability of the boundary layer and reduced intensity of vertical mixing between the surface and cloud layer. An increased sink of cloud layer moisture via precipitation and decreased source through diminished vertical transport result in earlier cloud breakup in higher conditions. Simulations with different sea surface temperatures (SST) indicate that this cloud breakup mechanism remains valid for MCAOs of different strengths, although the cloud organization is more sensitive to SST changes in low environments. This work highlights the importance of accurate representations of ice processes in simulating MCAO clouds and suggests the need for observational constraints of ice nucleating particles and over the mixed‐phase cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-96 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite; and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occulation instrument, on board the French Satellite Pour I'Observations de la Terre. Comparisons of the different data sets with the model simulation are shown to provide complementary information and a consistent view of the ozone evolution. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be sensitive to the ozone vertical gradient and the model vertical transport, and only weakly sensitive to the model photochemistry. The most consistent comparison between observed and modeled ozone evolution is found for a simulation where the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. Diabatic trajectory calculations are used to estimate the uncertainty due to vertical advection quantitatively. The transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The model ozone evolution during December and January is broadly consistent with the observations when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Simulation of a Future SLR Satellite to Improve Low-Degree Gravity Estimates

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; 2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (2018-present) have observed Earth's monthly mass change with unprecedented spatial resolution. These missions have long relied on satellite laser ranging (SLR) measurements to replace the C 2,0 coefficient, which GRACE recovers poorly. Recent work has also shown the need for SLR-determined C 3,0 when GRACE operates with a single accelerometer. However, it was not until the 2012 launch of the Laser Relativity Satellite that the SLR data gained the sensitivity to recover C 3,0 accurately. These low-degree gravity coefficients represent large-scale mass transport and small changes in their values have implications for ice sheet, ocean mass, and water storage estimates. To fully exploit SLR's utility for time-variable gravity (TVG), future satellite orbits should be selected to maximize their sensitivity to the gravity field. In this work, we present results from a simulation study of a hypothetical SLR satellite in which we generate 1 year of data to satellites placed across varying inclinations. We also simulate seven current SLR satellites to show realistic improvements from the new satellite. When compared to the known truth input, a low-inclination satellite ( <~ 45°) most improves the low-degree gravity terms, especially the even zonals which show a significant decorrelation. From this, we investigate recovery of the annual variability in the simulated signal and find recovery of the sine component improves by up to 41%. This has important implications when considering future SLR satellites in the context of TVG.

Satellite laser ranging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging observed soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes as a novel constraint on global-scale models

Microbially-explicit models may improve understanding and projections of carbon dynamics in response to future climate change, but their fidelity in simulating global-scale soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), a stringent test for soil biogeochemical models, has never been evaluated. We used statistical global RH products, as well as 7,821 daily site-scale RH measurements, to evaluate the spatio-temporal performance of one first-order decay model (CASA-CNP) and two microbially-explicit biogeochemical models (CORPSE and MIMICS) that were forced by two different climate datasets. CORPSE and MIMICS did not provide any measurable performance improvement; instead, the models were highly sensitive to the meteorological input data used to drive them. Spatial RH variability was generally well simulated except in the northern middle latitudes (~50°N) and arid regions; models captured the seasonal variability of RH well, but showed more divergence in tropic and arctic regions. Our results demonstrate that the next generation of biogeochemical models shows promise, but also needs to be improved for realistic spatio-temporal variability of RH. Finally, we emphasize the importance of net primary production, soil moisture, and soil temperature inputs, and that jointly evaluating soil models for their spatial (global scale) and temporal (site scale) performance provides crucial benchmarks for improving biogeochemical models.

Jian, Jinshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Instabilities and phase transitions in architected metamaterials: a gradient-enhanced continuum approach

Architected metamaterials such as foams and lattices exhibit a wide range of properties governed by microstructural instabilities and emerging phase transitions. Their macroscopic response–including energy dissipation during impact, large recoverable deformations, morphing between configurations, and auxetic behavior–remains difficult to capture with conventional continuum models, which often rely on discrete approaches that limit scalability. In this work, we propose a nonlocal continuum formulation that captures both stable and unstable responses of elastic architected metamaterials. The framework extends anisotropic hyperelasticity by introducing nonlocal variables and internal length scales reflective of microstructural features. Local polyconvex free-energy models are systematically augmented with two families of non-(poly)convex energies, enabling both metastable and bistable responses. Implementation in a finite element framework enables solution using a hybrid monolithic–staggered strategy. Simulations capture densification fronts, forward and reverse transitions, hysteresis loops, imperfection sensitivity, and globally coordinated auxetic modes. Overall, this framework provides a robust foundation for accelerated modeling of instability-driven phenomena in architected metamaterials, while enabling extensions to anisotropic, dissipative, and active systems as well as integration with data-driven and machine learning approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High precision strike point control to support experiments in the DIII-D small angle slot divertor

Improvements in strike point control enabled tests with the new Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertor installed at DIII-D with precision as tight as ±1 mm, barring brief perturbations from ELMs. Aside from being narrower than previous baffle structures in DIII-D, simulations indicate that performance of the SAS divertor should be very sensitive to strike point position, making the improved strike point control essential for experiments with the SAS divertor. Improved control entails regulating more divertor geometry target locations than before and setting higher gain on the strike point target. This is achieved by tasking more poloidal field (PF) shaping coils with divertor topology control, fine tuning of the coil configuration and algorithm gains, and adding regulation of the power supply common rail. Here, the result is that although more variables are controlled, precision is better: high frequency jitter in the strike point position is lower on average compared to related discharges with standard divertor shape control.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rossi-alpha measurements of fast plutonium metal assemblies using organic scintillators

The reactivity and the k-effective multiplication factor (k eff ) of a fissionable assembly are quantities of widespread interest. These values can be inferred from Rossi-alpha measurements of the prompt neutron decay constant (or the inverse:α -1 ). It has been shown that 3 He-gas proportional counter-based detection systems are insensitive to α -1 of fast assemblies (much faster than tens of microseconds). Therefore, it is of interest to investigate fast detection systems such as those based on organic scintillation detectors. In this work, an array of 12 cylindrical, 5.08 cm x 5.08 cm diameter trans-stilbene organic scintillators was used to measure five subcritical assemblies. One assembly was a sphere of approximately 4.5 kg of alpha-phase, weapons-grade plutonium (k eff = 0.773, α -1 = 11.84 ns) known as the BeRP ball encased in a thin stainless-steel clad. The other assemblies used the same encased sphere and 7.62 cm of iron, nickel, copper, or tungsten reflectors (k eff = 0.884, 0.916, 0.924, 0.939, respectively and α -1 = 36.60, 41.56, 49.60, 70.32 ns, respectively). Finally, this work (1) validates Rossi-alpha measurements with organic scintillators by demonstrating good agreement between measurements and simulations; and (2), demonstrates that organic scintillator-based systems are sensitive to α -1 on the order of 10–100 ns.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Centrifuge modeling and numerical analysis on lateral performance of mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines

The lateral loading performance of the mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines is investigated in this study through a series of centrifuge tests and numerical analysis. Six mono-bucket models are considered to assess the influences of aspect ratio under the ultimate condition. The FE model is validated against the centrifuge test results, and the failure mechanism of the foundation is revealed. The parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the soil parameters are performed in the numerical simulations. A modified theoretical calculation method is proposed to estimate the ultimate lateral capacity of the suction bucket foundation by solving the limit equilibrium equations. A correction term is added in the calculation using the “m” method. The position of the rotation center is calculated, demonstrating a better accuracy compared to the previously reported geometric method. The modified calculation method is verified against the field test, the centrifuge test, and the laboratory test. The method is proved to be applicable in estimating the lateral performance of the mono-bucket foundation in a general form. Finally, this study aims to provide well-documented data and design references for practical engineers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chemical kinetic interactions of NO with a multi-component gasoline surrogate: Experiments and modeling

Here this work reports an experimental and modeling study on the chemical kinetic interactions of NO with a multi-component gasoline surrogate, namely PACE-20, using a twin-piston rapid compression machine at a stochiometric fuel loading with 20% EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) by mass, pressures of 20 and 40 bar, and temperatures from 700 to 930 K. Five NO concentrations are investigated, namely 0, 20, 50, 70 and 150 ppm, where NO addition effects are characterized through changes in PACE-20 ignition reactivity and heat release characteristics. Experiments indicate that within the low-temperature regime, NO promotes low-temperature heat release rate and main ignition reactivity at low addition levels, with saturation or even inhibiting effects observed at >50 ppm NO addition, while within the NTC/intermediate-temperature regime, adding NO only promotes reactivity. A recently updated, detailed chemical kinetic model with chemistry specific to NOx/hydrocarbons interaction incorporated is used to simulate the experiments, and reasonable agreement is obtained. In-depth sensitivity and rate of production analyses are further performed. The results indicate that NO interacts with PACE-20 via two types of interaction: (a) direct interactions between NO and PACE-20 derivatives, primarily through NO+HO 2 ↔NO 2 +OH and RO 2 +NO↔RO+NO 2 , and (b) indirect interactions between PACE-20 derivatives and NO 2 produced from the direct interactions, primarily through R+NO 2 ↔RO+NO. The observed NO inhibiting effect at low temperatures and 150 ppm NO addition is attributed to the lack of HO 2 radicals to sustain NO consumption via NO+HO 2 ↔NO 2 +OH, and the take-up of inhibiting pathways via RO 2 +NO↔RO+NO 2 . The results also indicate that even with the presence of multiple fuel components, NOx/hydrocarbons interactions are highly selective, and are mainly initiated by the interactions between NO and RO 2 radicals from cyclopentane and ethanol, as well as between NO 2 and R radicals from toluene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene and 1-hexene. Further studies on these interactive reactions are therefore highly recommended.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗