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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation by Integrating Physical with Statistical Models

Accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is crucial for distribution grid control and optimization. Unfortunately, most of the residential solar PV installations are behind-the-meter. Thus, utilities only have access to the net load readings. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for estimating solar PV generation by disaggregating the net load readings. The proposed framework synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model with a statistical model for load estimation. Specifically, our algorithm iteratively estimates solar PV generation with a physical model and electric load with the Hidden Markov model regression. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is validated against net load and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. The validation results show that our method reduces mean squared error by 44% compared to the state-of-the-art disaggregation algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Calculations vs. measurements of remnant dose rates for SNS spent structures

Residual dose rate measurements were conducted on target vessel #13 and proton beam window #5 after extraction from their service locations. These measurements were used to verify calculation methods of radionuclide inventory assessment that are typically performed for nuclear waste characterization and transportation of these structures. Neutronics analyses for predicting residual dose rates were carried out using the transport code MCNPX and the transmutation code CINDER90. For transport analyses complex and rigorous geometry model of the structures and their surrounding are applied. The neutronics analyses were carried out using Bertini and CEM high energy physics models for simulating particles interaction. Obtained preliminary calculational results were analysed and compared to the measured dose rates and overall are showing good agreement with in 40% in average.

Popova, Irina I.↗

Development and Validation of a Conjugate Heat Transfer Model for the Two-Phase CFD Code NEK-2P

A project is underway to develop, verify and validate an advanced two-phase flow modeling capability for the highly-scalable, high-performance CFD code NEK5000. The goal of the project is to develop a new two-phase version of the NEK5000 code, named NEK-2P, to simulate the two-phase flow and heat transfer phenomena that occur in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel bundle under various operating conditions. The NEK-2P two-phase flow models follow the approach used for the Extended Boiling Framework (EBF) [2-3] previously developed at Argonne, but include more fundamental physical models of boiling phenomena and advanced numerical algorithms for improved computational accuracy, robustness, and computational speed. The development of the NEK-2P two-phase solver and the implementation of the Extended Boiling Framework two-phase models were initially supported by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) through a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project during FY2014-2016. The development and validation of the two-phase models through analyses of selected two-phase boiling flow experiments was supported by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in FY2017-2019. This report focuses on the FY2019 development and validation of the Conjugate Heat Transfer (CHT) model for the NEK-2P Two-Phase, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code. The NEK-2P CHT model calculates the coupled behavior of the fluid and solid domains. In the fluid domain NEK-2P calculates the vapor and liquid phase temperatures, velocities and mass fractions. In the solid domain only the temperatures are calculated. The fluid and solid domains are coupled with a heat flux boundary condition at the fluid-solid interface. The heat flux and the wall temperatures at the fluid-solid interface are updated using the NEK-2P wall heat-flux partitioning model. A wall heat flux boundary condition is also applied to the exterior surface of the solid domain. The CHT model validation was illustrated through the analysis of three of the Becker Critical Heat Flux (CHF) tests. Reasonably good agreement with measured data was obtained in predicting the CHF location and post CHF wall temperature behavior illustrating the ability of the NEK-2P CHT model to simulate the CHF phenomena for a wide range of thermal-hydraulic conditions. Apart from the CHT model development and validation, initial simulations were performed for the Virginia Tech. (VT) 3x3 bare rod bundle experiments including both cold and boiling flow simulations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Direct Measurement of Mass-Temperature Distributions in the Core of Implosions on the National Ignition Facility (Full Technical Final Report)

Inertial confinement fusion plasmas are characterized by several kilo-electron-volt (keV) electron temperatures and ion and electron densities approaching 100 to 1000 times solid. In these implosions which simulate the dynamics of our sun, spectroscopic dopants can lead to detailed exploration of the plasma gradients that are not possible in other places. This is both in the central core pressure and temperature as well as any “mix” resultant from ablation and hydrodynamic interactions. This work will show new Bayesian atomic physics models applied to ICF plasmas to give both the temperature and density of the internal hot spot to better describe the physical nature of these implosions along with trying to spatially resolve the mix coming from the ablator region. The mission impact is to demonstrate this effect and to lead to a more quantitative description of mix in inertial confinement plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mathematical modeling of moving boundary problems in thermal energy storage

The capability for predicting the performance of thermal energy storage (RES) subsystems and components using PCM's based on mathematical and physical models is developed. Mathematical models of the dynamic thermal behavior of (TES) subsystems using PCM's based on solutions of the moving boundary thermal conduction problem and on heat and mass transfer engineering correlations are also discussed.

Solomon, A. D.↗

Accurate modeling of F-region electron densities

In the past year, we have made considerable progress in a number of areas including algorithm development, completion of two major case studies, and the development of a new EUV flux model. As a result, there has been a major improvement in our ability to model global emissions in support of NASA's imaging plans. Activity highlights include the following: developed a new algorithm to allow physical models to reproduce observed NmF2; investigated the relationship between NmF2 and F10.7 at Millstone Hill during 1990; developed a new solar EUV flux model; statistical survey of anomalously high nighttime electron T(sub e) at Millstone Hill; conducted a case study of the March 1990 magnetic storm; and conducted a comparison between theory and data of magnetically quiet behavior of the winter ionosphere at Millstone Hill.

Source record↗

The Fringe-Imaging Skin Friction Technique PC Application User's Manual

A personal computer application (CXWIN4G) has been written which greatly simplifies the task of extracting skin friction measurements from interferograms of oil flows on the surface of wind tunnel models. Images are first calibrated, using a novel approach to one-camera photogrammetry, to obtain accurate spatial information on surfaces with curvature. As part of the image calibration process, an auxiliary file containing the wind tunnel model geometry is used in conjunction with a two-dimensional direct linear transformation to relate the image plane to the physical (model) coordinates. The application then applies a nonlinear regression model to accurately determine the fringe spacing from interferometric intensity records as required by the Fringe Imaging Skin Friction (FISF) technique. The skin friction is found through application of a simple expression that makes use of lubrication theory to relate fringe spacing to skin friction.

Zilliac, Gregory G.↗

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize approach phase, terminal descent phase, and surface phase operations on the physical model. The project had an additional requirement that was also satisfied: the granite table the model was placed on must be returnable to its original condition if needed in the future.

O'Brien, Hollie↗

Design and Fabrication of the Lithium Beam Ion Injector for NDCX-II

A 130 keV injector is developed for the NDCX-II facility. It consists of a 10.9 cm diameter lithium doped alumina-silicate ion source heated to {approx}1300 C and 3 electrodes. Other components include a segmented Rogowski coil for current and beam position monitoring, a gate valve, pumping ports, a focusing solenoid, a steering coil and space for inspection and maintenance access. Significant design challenges including managing the 3-4 kW of power dissipation from the source heater, temperature uniformity across the emitter surface, quick access for frequent ion source replacement, mechanical alignment with tight tolerance, and structural stabilization of the cantilevered 27-inch OD graded HV ceramic column. The injector fabrication is scheduled to complete by May 2011, and assembly and installation is scheduled to complete by the beginning of July. The Neutralized Drift Compression eXperiment (NDCX-II) is for the study of high energy density physics and inertial fusion energy research utilizing a lithium ion (Li+) beam with a current of 93 mA and a pulse length of 500 ns (compressed to 1 ns at the target). The injector is one of the most complicated sections of the NDCX-II accelerator demanding significant design and fabrication resources. It needs to accommodate a relatively large ion source (10.9 cm), a high heat load (3-4 kW) and specific beam optics developed from the physics model. Some specific design challenges are noted in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Modeling: Circuit Characterization Using Theory Based Models in a Data Driven Framework

Analog computational circuits have been demonstrated to provide substantial improvements in power and speed relative to digital circuits, especially for applications requiring extreme parallelism but only modest precision. Deep machine learning is one such area and stands to benefit greatly from analog and mixed-signal implementations. However, even at modest precisions, offsets and non-linearity can degrade system performance. Furthermore, in all but the simplest systems, it is impossible to directly measure the intermediate outputs of all sub-circuits. The result is that circuit designers are unable to accurately evaluate the non-idealities of computational circuits in-situ and are therefore unable to fully utilize measurement results to improve future designs. In this paper we present a technique to use deep learning frameworks to model physical systems. Recently developed libraries like TensorFlow make it possible to use back propagation to learn parameters in the context of modeling circuit behavior. Offsets and scaling errors can be discovered even for sub-circuits that are deeply embedded in a computational system and not directly observable. The learned parameters can be used to refine simulation methods or to identify appropriate compensation strategies. We demonstrate the framework using a mixed-signal convolution operator as an example circuit.

Bolme, David S↗

Cloud fluid models of gas dynamics and star formation in galaxies

The large dynamic range of star formation in galaxies, and the apparently complex environmental influences involved in triggering or suppressing star formation, challenges the understanding. The key to this understanding may be the detailed study of simple physical models for the dominant nonlinear interactions in interstellar cloud systems. One such model is described, a generalized Oort model cloud fluid, and two simple applications of it are explored. The first of these is the relaxation of an isolated volume of cloud fluid following a disturbance. Though very idealized, this closed box study suggests a physical mechanism for starbursts, which is based on the approximate commensurability of massive cloud lifetimes and cloud collisional growth times. The second application is to the modeling of colliding ring galaxies. In this case, the driving processes operating on a dynamical timescale interact with the local cloud processes operating on the above timescale. The results is a variety of interesting nonequilibrium behaviors, including spatial variations of star formation that do not depend monotonically on gas density.

Struck-Marcell, Curtis↗

Reconstruction and uncertainty quantification of lattice Hamiltonian model parameters from observations of microscopic degrees of freedom

The emergence of scanning probe and electron beam imaging techniques has allowed quantitative studies of atomic structure and minute details of electronic and vibrational structure on the level of individual atomic units. These microscopic descriptors, in turn, can be associated with local symmetry breaking phenomena, representing the stochastic manifestation of the underpinning generative physical model. In this work, we explore the reconstruction of exchange integrals in the Hamiltonian for a lattice model with two competing interactions from observations of microscopic degrees of freedom and establish the uncertainties and reliability of such analysis in a broad parameter-temperature space. In contrast to other approaches, we specifically specify a loss function inherent to thermodynamic systems and utilize it to estimate uncertainty in simulated realizations of different models. As an ancillary task, we develop a machine learning approach based on histogram clustering to predict phase diagrams efficiently using a reduced descriptor space. We further demonstrate that reconstruction is possible well above the phase transition and in the regions of parameter space when the macroscopic ground state of the system is poorly defined due to frustrated interactions. This suggests that this approach can be applied to the traditionally complex problems of condensed matter physics such as ferroelectric relaxors and morphotropic phase boundary systems, spin and cluster glasses, and quantum systems once the local descriptors linked to the relevant physical behaviors are known.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Calculations versus measurements for residual dose rates from SNS spent structures

Here, residual dose rate measurements were conducted on target vessel #13 and proton beam window #5 after extraction from their service locations. These measurements are used to verify calculation methods of radionuclide inventory assessment that are typically performed for nuclear waste characterization and transportation of these structures. Neutronics analyses for predicting residual dose rates are carried out using the transport code MCNPX and the transmutation code CINDER90. For transport analyses a complex and rigorous geometry model of the structures and their surroundings are applied. The neutronics analyses are carried out using the Bertini and CEM high energy physics models for simulating particles interactions above the table-based cross section range. Finally, obtained calculational results are analyzed and compared to the measured dose rates and overall show good agreement within 25%, which shows applicability of the methods used in analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

MODELING THE MOLECULAR COMPOSITION IN AN ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEUS DISK

We use a high-temperature chemical network to derive the molecular abundances in axisymmetric accretion disk models around active galactic nuclei (AGNs) within 100 pc using simple radial and vertical density and temperature distributions motivated by more detailed physical models. We explore the effects of X-ray irradiation and cosmic-ray ionization on the spatial distribution of the molecular abundances of CO, CN, CS, HCN, HCO{sup +}, HC{sub 3}N, C{sub 2}H, and c-C{sub 3}H{sub 2} using a variety of plausible disk structures. These simple models have molecular regions with an X-ray-dominated region layer, a midplane without the strong influence of X-rays, and a high-temperature region in the inner portion with moderate X-ray flux where families of polyynes (C{sub n}H{sub 2}) and cyanopolyynes can be enhanced. For the high midplane density disks we explore, we find that cosmic rays produced by supernovae do not significantly affect the regions unless the star formation efficiency significantly exceeds that of the Milky Way. We highlight molecular abundance observations and ratios that may distinguish among theoretical models of the density distribution in AGN disks. Finally, we assess the importance of the shock crossing time and the accretion time relative to the formation time for various chemical species. Vertical column densities are tabulated for a number of molecular species at both the characteristic shock crossing time and steady state. Although we do not attempt to fit any particular system or set of observations, we discuss our models and results in the context of the nearby AGN NGC 1068.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Plant canopy transpiration in bioregenerative life support systems - The link between mechanistic and empirical models

A model of water transpiration in a plant canopy that combines two approaches is presented. The first approach is to account for underlying physical processes, while the second is to empirically incorporate transpiration data now being generated at the Johnson Center Variable Pressure Growth Chamber. The two approaches, physical modeling and data analysis, make it possible to produce a model that is more robust than either the standard first-principles model or a straightforward empirical model. It is shown that the present transpiration model is able to efficiently capture the dynamic behavior of the plant canopy over the entire range of environmental parameters now envisioned to be important in an operating controlled ecological life support system (CELSS). Examples of the use of this model in assessing plant canopy dynamics and CELSS design options are also presented.

Sirko, Robert J.↗

Code-to-Code Comparison, and Material Response Modeling of Stardust and MSL using PATO and FIAT

This report provides a code-to-code comparison between PATO, a recently developed high fidelity material response code, and FIAT, NASA's legacy code for ablation response modeling. The goal is to demonstrates that FIAT and PATO generate the same results when using the same models. Test cases of increasing complexity are used, from both arc-jet testing and flight experiment. When using the exact same physical models, material properties and boundary conditions, the two codes give results that are within 2% of errors. The minor discrepancy is attributed to the inclusion of the gas phase heat capacity (cp) in the energy equation in PATO, and not in FIAT.

ablative materials↗

Acoustic space occupancy: Combining ecoacoustics and lidar to model biodiversity variation and detection bias across heterogeneous landscapes

There is global interest in quantifying changing biodiversity in human-modified landscapes. Ecoacoustics may offer a promising pathway for supporting multi-taxa monitoring, but its scalability has been hampered by the sonic complexity of biodiverse ecosystems and the imperfect detectability of animal-generated sounds. The acoustic signature of a habitat, or soundscape, contains information about multiple taxa and may circumvent species identification, but robust statistical technology for characterizing community-level attributes is lacking. Here, we present the Acoustic Space Occupancy Model, a flexible hierarchical framework designed to account for detection artifacts from acoustic surveys in order to model biologically relevant variation in acoustic space use among community assemblages. We illustrate its utility in a biologically and structurally diverse Amazon frontier forest landscape, a valuable test case for modeling biodiversity variation and acoustic attenuation from vegetation density. We use complementary airborne lidar data to capture aspects of 3D forest structure hypothesized to influence community composition and acoustic signal detection. Our novel analytic framework permitted us to model both the assembly and detectability of soundscapes using lidar-derived estimates of forest structure. Our empirical predictions were consistent with physical models of frequency-dependent attenuation, and we estimated that the probability of observing animal activity in the frequency channel most vulnerable to acoustic attenuation varied by over 60%, depending on vegetation density. There were also large differences in the biotic use of acoustic space predicted for intact and degraded forest habitats, with notable differences in the soundscape channels predominantly occupied by insects. This study advances the utility of ecoacoustics by providing a robust modeling framework for addressing detection bias from remote audio surveys while preserving the rich dimensionality of soundscape data, which may be critical for inferring biological patterns pertinent to multiple taxonomic groups in the tropics. Our methodology paves the way for greater integration of remotely sensed observations with high-throughput biodiversity data to help bring routine, multi-taxa monitoring to scale in dynamic and diverse landscapes.

Airborne lidar↗