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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

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NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗

NASA NTRS2013

Nustar and Chandra Insight into the Nature of the 3-40 Kev Nuclear Emission in Ngc 253

We present results from three nearly simultaneous Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) and Chandra monitoring observations between 2012 September 2 and 2012 November 16 of the local star-forming galaxy NGC 253. The 3-40 kiloelectron volt intensity of the inner approximately 20 arcsec (approximately 400 parsec) nuclear region, as measured by NuSTAR, varied by a factor of approximately 2 across the three monitoring observations. The Chandra data reveal that the nuclear region contains three bright X-ray sources, including a luminous (L (sub 2-10 kiloelectron volt) approximately few × 10 (exp 39) erg per s) point source located approximately 1 arcsec from the dynamical center of the galaxy (within the sigma 3 positional uncertainty of the dynamical center); this source drives the overall variability of the nuclear region at energies greater than or approximately equal to 3 kiloelectron volts. We make use of the variability to measure the spectra of this single hard X-ray source when it was in bright states. The spectra are well described by an absorbed (power-law model spectral fit value, N(sub H), approximately equal to 1.6 x 10 (exp 23) per square centimeter) broken power-law model with spectral slopes and break energies that are typical of ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs), but not active galactic nuclei (AGNs). A previous Chandra observation in 2003 showed a hard X-ray point source of similar luminosity to the 2012 source that was also near the dynamical center (Phi is approximately equal to 0.4 arcsec); however, this source was offset from the 2012 source position by approximately 1 arcsec. We show that the probability of the 2003 and 2012 hard X-ray sources being unrelated is much greater than 99.99% based on the Chandra spatial localizations. Interestingly, the Chandra spectrum of the 2003 source (3-8 kiloelectron volts) is shallower in slope than that of the 2012 hard X-ray source. Its proximity to the dynamical center and harder Chandra spectrum indicate that the 2003 source is a better AGN candidate than any of the sources detected in our 2012 campaign; however, we were unable to rule out a ULX nature for this source. Future NuSTAR and Chandra monitoring would be well equipped to break the degeneracy between the AGN and ULX nature of the 2003 source, if again caught in a high state.

Chandra↗

NASA NTRS2020

Characteristics of DSD Bulk Parameters: Implication to Radar Rain Retrieval

With the use of 213,456 one-minute measured data of droplet-size distribution (DSD) of rain collected during several National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-sponsored field campaigns, the relationships between rainfall rate R, mass-weighted diameter D(m) and normalized intercept parameter N(w) of the gamma DSD are studied. It is found, based on the simulations of the gamma DSD model, that R, D(m) and N(w) are closely interrelated, and that the ratio of R to N(w) is solely a function of D(m), independent of the shape factor μ of the gamma distribution. Furthermore, the model-produced ratio agrees well with those from the DSD data. When a power-law equation is applied to fit the model data, we have: R=aN(w)D(sup b, sub m) , where a=1.588×10(exp −4) , b=4.706 . Analysis of two-parameter relationships such as R–D(m), N(w)–R and N(w)–D(m) reveals that R and D(m) are moderately correlated while N(w) and D(m) are negatively correlated. N(w) and R, however, are uncorrelated. The gamma DSD model also reveals that variation of R–D(m) relation is caused primarily by N(w). For the application of the Ku- and Ka-band dual-frequency radar for the retrieval of the DSD bulk parameters as well as the specific radar attenuations, the study is carried out to relate the dual-frequency radar reflectivity factors to the DSD and attenuation parameters.

Liang Liao↗

DOE OSTI2017

Soil Water Characteristics of Cores from Low- and High-Centered Polygons, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2012

This dataset includes soil water characteristic curves for soil and permafrost in two representative frozen cores collected from a high-center polygon (HCP) and a low-center polygon (LCP) from the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Data include soil water content and soil water potential measured using the simple evaporation method for hydrological and biogeochemical simulations and experimental data analysis. Data can be used to generate a soil moisture characteristic curve, which can be fit to a variety of hydrological functions to infer critical parameters for soil physics. Considering the measured the soil water properties, the van Genuchten model predicted well the HCP, in contrast, the Kosugi model well fitted LCP which had more saturated condition. This dataset includes 8 zipped files, one txt files, and one pdf file.Data were collected to estimate soil water potential and water availability at various temperatures and conditions for hydrological and biogeochemical simulations and experimental data analysis. Data can be used to generate a soil moisture characteristic curve, which can be fit to a variety of hydrological functions to infer critical parameters for soil physics.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

The Syrtis Major volcano, Mars: A multidisciplinary approach to interpreting its magmatic evolution and structural development: EVOLUTION OF THE SYRTIS MAJOR VOLCANO

Very weak crustal magnetic fields over the Syrtis Major volcanic complex imply almost total thermal demagnetization via magmatic intrusions over a large area less than ~4Ga. We fit a model of these intrusions and the resulting thermal demagnetization to maps of crustal magnetic field strength at 185km altitude. The best fits are most consistent with a "dog bone"-shaped region of intrusive material, elongated approximately north-south, with an area of ~350,000km 2 and an inferred volume of ~4-19×10 6 km 3 . Such a large volume is best explained by a long-lived mantle plume beneath the Syrtis edifice. A free-air gravity anomaly high over the Syrtis Major caldera is consistent with dense mafic residue remaining at depth following crystal fractionation that produced the silicic magmas seen at the surface. The elongation of this region is consistent with ascent and north-south emplacement of magma enabled by structures parallel to and associated with the preexisting Isidis impact basin.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Global reconstructed daily surge levels from the 20th Century Reanalysis (1871–2010)

Studying the effect of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients on the sea level variation (storm surge) is a key issue in understanding the recent climate change effect on the dynamical state of the ocean. The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time, scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. A recent global surge database developed by AVISO (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction) fulfilled the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent, since it only includes the last two decades (1992–2014). In this work, we use the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 (20CR), which spans the years 1871 to 2010, to statistically reconstruct daily maximum surge levels at a global scale. A multivariate linear regression model is fitted between daily mean ERA-interim sea level pressure fields and daily maximum surge levels from DAC. Following, the statistical model is used to reconstruct daily surges using mean sea level pressure fields from 20CR. The verification of the statistical model shows good agreements between DAC levels and the reconstructed surge levels from the 20CR. The validation of the reconstructed surge with tide gauges, distributed throughout the domain, shows good accuracy both in terms of high correlations and small errors. A time series comparison is also depicted at specific tide gauges for the beginning of the 20th century, showing a high concordance. Therefore, this work provides to the scientific community, a daily database of maximum surge levels; which correspond to an extension of the DAC database, from 1871 to 2010. This database can be used to improve the knowledge on historical storm surge conditions, allowing the study of their temporal and spatial variability.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pseudorapidity distributions of charged particles in pp($\bar p$), p(d)A and AA collisions using Tsallis thermodynamics

The pseudorapidity distributions of charged particles measured in p + p($\overline{\text{p}}$) collisions for energies ranging from $\sqrt{{s}_{\mathrm{N}\mathrm{N}}}=23.6$ GeV to 13 TeV and A + A collisions at RHIC and LHC are investigated in the fireball model with Tsallis thermodynamics. We assume that the rapidity axis is populated with fireballs following q-Gaussian distribution and the charged particles follow the Tsallis distribution in the fireball. We also extend the fireball model to asymmetric collision systems, i.e. d + Au collisions at $\sqrt{{s}_{\mathrm{N}\mathrm{N}}}=200$ GeV and p + Pb collisions at $\sqrt{{s}_{\mathrm{N}\mathrm{N}}}=5.02$ TeV, by taking into account the asymmetric geometry configuration. The model can fit the experimental data well for all the collision systems and centralities investigated. The collision energy and centrality dependence of the model parameters for the symmetric (asymmetric) collision system, i.e. the central position y 0 (y 0a , y 0A ) and its width σ (σ a , σ A ) of the fireball distribution, are also investigated and discussed. Furthermore, our results suggest that the fireball model with Tsallis thermodynamics can be used as a universal framework for the pseudorapidity distributions of charged particles in high energy collisions at RHIC and LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1979

The magnetic field of Mercury

The paper examines the magnetic field observations and their analyses relating to the determination of the Mercury magnetic field. Methods of analyzing data included: (1) comparison of bow shock and magnetopause relative positions at Mercury to the earth, (2) direct spherical harmonic analysis, (3) magnetosphere modeling by an image dipole, and (4) scaling of a mathematical model for the terrestrial magnetosphere. Dipole moments were determined using partial quadrupole and octupole terms to improve the least-square fit of models to observations; analyses by method (2) yield a convergent series of dipole moments values considered to best represent the intrinsic planetary field. Finally, it is suggested that the origin of the magnetic field of Mercury cannot be uniquely determined, but the sources of convective energy may be radiogenic decay and heat release, gravitational settling, and differentiation of processional torques.

Ness, N. F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Multiple-angle observations of reflectance anisotropy from an airborne linear array sensor

An airborne pointable imaging multispectral linear array sensor has been developed for the multidirectional observation of surface reflectance anisotropy. The sensor design permits observations up to 45 deg off-nadir in three spectral bands (green, red, and near-infrared). Calibration permits the conversion of sensor data to radiance units with an absolute uncertainty of 6 percent. Observations of five field plots from seven view directions are discussed. Calibration and atmospheric corrections are used to derive hemispherical-directional reflectance factors. A three-term reflectance model is fit to the reflectance factors for each plot to represent the continuous distribution of reflectance factors with view direction. The reflectance model is integrated over all view directions to calculate bihemispherical reflectance factors. The calculated bihemispherical factors differed by 1 to 25 percent from values based on an assumption of isotropic reflectance depending on spectral band and field plot. These calculations demonstrate the technologic and scientific capabilities required for the remote characterization of surface reflectance anisotropy. Remote multidirectional observations are both feasible and needed to fully evaluate land reflectance characteristics.

Irons, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2015

On the Statistical Calibration of Physical Models

ABSTRACT We introduce a novel statistical calibration framework for physical models, relying on probabilistic embedding of model discrepancy error within the model. For clarity of illustration, we take the measurement errors out of consideration, calibrating a chemical model of interest with respect to a more detailed model, considered as “truth” for the present purpose. We employ Bayesian statistical methods for such model‐to‐model calibration and demonstrate their capabilities on simple synthetic models, leading to a well‐defined parameter estimation problem that employs approximate Bayesian computation. The method is then demonstrated on two case studies for calibration of kinetic rate parameters for methane air chemistry, where ignition time information from a detailed elementary‐step kinetic model is used to estimate rate coefficients of a simple chemical mechanism. We show that the calibrated model predictions fit the data and that uncertainty in these predictions is consistent in a mean‐square sense with the discrepancy from the detailed model data.

Sargsyan, K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiwavelength investigations of PKS 2300–18: S-shaped radio quasar with precessing jets and double-peaked broad emission-line spectrum

ABSTRACT S-shaped radio galaxy jets are prime sources for investigating the dynamic interplay between the central active galactic nucleus (AGN), the jets, and the ambient intergalactic medium. These sources are excellent candidates for studying jet precession, as their S-shaped inversion symmetry strongly indicates underlying precession. We present a multiwavelength analysis of the giant inversion-symmetric S-shaped radio galaxy PKS 2300$-$18, which spans 0.76 Mpc. The host is a quasar at a redshift of 0.128, displaying disturbed optical morphology due to an ongoing merger with a companion galaxy. We conducted a broad-band radio spectral study using multifrequency data ranging from 183 MHz to 6 GHz, incorporating dedicated observations with the upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (uGMRT) and Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (JVLA) alongside archival radio data. A particle injection model was fitted to the spectra of different regions of the source to perform ageing analysis, which was supplemented with a kinematic jet precession model. The ageing analysis revealed a maximum plasma age of $\sim$ 40 Myr, while the jet precession model indicated a precession period of $\sim$ 12 Myr. ROentgen SATellite (ROSAT) data revealed an X-ray halo of Mpc size, and from Chandra the AGN X-ray spectrum was modelled using thermal and power-law components. The optical spectrum displaying double-peaked broad emission lines was modelled, indicating complex broad-line region kinematics at the centre with the possibility of a binary SMBH. We present the results of our multiwavelength analysis of the source, spanning scales from a few light-days to a few Mpc, and discuss its potential evolutionary path.

Misra, Arpita↗

DOE OSTI2022

Testing Lepton Flavor Universality with Pion, Kaon, Tau, and Beta Decays

We present an overview of searches for violation of lepton flavor universality with a focus on low energy precision probes using π, K, τ, and nuclear beta decays. We review the current experimental results, summarize the theoretical status within the context of the Standard Model, and discuss future prospects (both experimental and theoretical). We review the implications of these measurements for physics beyond the Standard Model by performing a global model-independent fit to modified W couplings to leptons and four-fermion operators. We also discuss new physics in the context of simplified models and review Standard Model extensions with a focus on those that can explain a possible deviation from unitarity of the Cabibbo–Kobayashi–Maskawa quark mixing matrix.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantile Kriging R Package

A re-implementation of Quantile Kriging. Quantile Kriging was described by Matthew Plumlee & Rui Tuo in their 2014 paper "Building Accurate Emulators for Stochastic Simulations via Quantile Kriging." With computational savings when dealing with replication from the recent paper "Practical heteroskedastic Gaussian process modeling for large simulation experiments”, it is now possible to apply Quantile Kriging to a wider class of problems. In addition to fitting the model, other useful tools are provided such as the ability to automatically perform leave-one-out cross validation.

Quinlan, KevinR.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Investigation into the Relationship between Heterogeneity and Heavy-Tailed Solute Transport (Final Technical Report)

The objective of this project was to characterize the influence that naturally complex geologic media has on anomalous dispersion and to determine if the nature of dispersion can be estimated from the underlying heterogeneous media. The UNM portion of this project was to provide detailed representations of aquifer heterogeneity through producing highly-resolved models of outcrop analogs to aquifer materials. This project combined outcrop-scale heterogeneity characterization (conducted at the University of New Mexico), laboratory experiments (conducted at Sandia National Laboratory), and numerical simulations (conducted at Sandia National Laboratory and Colorado School of Mines). The study was designed to test whether established dispersion theory accurately predicts the behavior of solute transport through heterogeneous media and to investigate the relationship between heterogeneity and the parameters that populate these models. The dispersion theory tested by this work was based upon the fractional advection-dispersion equation (fADE) model. Unlike most dispersion studies that develop a solute transport model by fitting the solute transport breakthrough curve, this project explored the nature of the heterogeneous media to better understand the connection between the model parameters and the aquifer heterogeneity. We also evaluated methods for simulating the heterogeneity to see whether these approaches (e.g., geostatistical) could reasonably replicate realistic heterogeneity. The UNM portion of this study focused on capturing realistic geologic heterogeneity of aquifer analogs using advanced outcrop mapping methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Mixture Evolution Scenario of the AGN Radio Luminosity Function. II. Do Low- and High-power Radio-loud AGNs Evolve Differently?

Following previous work, we further confirm that the cosmic evolution of steep-spectrum radio-loud AGNs (active galactic nuclei) can be reproduced by a simple combination of density evolution (DE) and luminosity evolution (LE). This mixture evolution scenario can naturally explain the luminosity-dependent evolution of radio-loud AGNs. Our models successfully fitted a large amount of data on radio luminosity functions of steep-spectrum sources and multi-frequency source counts. The modeling indicates that the DE slowly increases as (1+z){sup 0.3∼1.3} out to z∼0.8, and then rapidly decreases as (1+z){sup −6.8∼−5.7}, while the LE rapidly increases as (1+z){sup 4.8} out to a higher redshift (at least z>3.5). We find a high-redshift decline (i.e., redshift cutoff) in the number density of steep-spectrum radio sources, but we cannot conclude whether such a decline is sharp or shallow. We believe that whether a redshift cutoff occurs or not depends mainly on DE, while its steepness is decided by LE, which, however, cannot be well constrained due to the lack of high-redshift samples. Most intriguingly, according to our mixture evolution scenario, there appears to be no need for different evolution for the low- and high-power radio-loud AGNs. Both types of sources experience the same combined evolution of DE and LE.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian estimation of the $S$ factor and thermonuclear reaction rate for 16 O(p, γ) 17 F

The 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction is the slowest hydrogen-burning process in the CNO mass region. Its thermonuclear rate sensitively impacts predictions of oxygen isotopic ratios in a number of astrophysical sites, including AGB stars. The reaction has been measured several times at low bombarding energies using a variety of techniques. The most recent evaluated experimental rates have a reported uncertainty of about 7.5% below 1 GK. However, the previous rate estimate represents a best guess only and was not based on rigorous statistical methods. We apply a Bayesian model to fit all reliable 16 O(p, γ) 17 F cross section data, and take into account independent contributions of statistical and systematic uncertainties. The nuclear reaction model employed is a single-particle potential model involving a Woods-Saxon potential for generating the radial bound state wave function. The model has three physical parameters, the radius and diffuseness of the Woods-Saxon potential, and the asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANCs) of the final bound state in 17 F. Here, we find that performing the Bayesian S -factor fit using ANCs as scaling parameters has a distinct advantage over adopting spectroscopic factors instead. Based on these results, we present the first statistically rigorous estimation of experimental 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction rates, with uncertainties (±4.2%) of about half the previously reported values.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

DOE OSTI2016

Simplified models for Higgs physics: singlet scalar and vector-like quark phenomenology

Simplified models provide a useful tool to conduct the search and exploration of physics beyond the Standard Model in a model-independent fashion. In this study, we consider the complementarity of indirect searches for new physics in Higgs couplings and distributions with direct searches for new particles, using a simplified model which includes a new singlet scalar resonance and vector-like fermions that can mix with the SM top-quark. We fit this model to the combined ATLAS and CMS 125 GeV Higgs production and coupling measurements and other precision electroweak constraints, and explore in detail the effects of the new matter content upon Higgs production and kinematics. Finally, we highlight some novel features and decay modes of the top partner phenomenology, and discuss prospects for Run II.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Influence of interparticle electronic coupling on the temperature and size dependent optical properties of lead sulfide quantum dot thin films

We report on the quantum dot (QD) size, temperature, and inter-dot coupling dependence on the optical absorption and emission for PbS QD thin films. Inter-dot coupling is induced by ligand exchange from oleic acid to 1,2-ethanedithiol, and the expected band gap red-shift observed for coupled QD thin films is accompanied by a modification to the temperature-dependence of the band gap energy. The amplitude and temperature dependence of the photoluminescence (PL) Stokes shift support recombination via a mid-gap state and also indicate that the application of band gap-specific models to fit the temperature dependence PL peak energy is inadequate. Electronically coupled QD thin films show PL quenching with decreasing temperature, following a Boltzmann model which is consistent with thermally activated carrier transport. Enhancing the inter-dot coupling results in the dynamic PL decay signal changing from single- to bi-exponential behavior, reveals a size-dependent transport activation energy, and yields a negative temperature dependent band gap energy for the smallest QD diameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗