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At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainties in Density and Simulation Parameters for Radiographic Reconstructions Using Machine Learning

We will develop new and improved methods that will enable a fuller and more extensive use of experimental data, such as from radiographic imaging, towards better characterizing and reducing uncertainties in predictive modeling of weapons performance. We will achieve this by leveraging recent developments in the areas of computational imaging, statistical and machine learning, and reduced order modeling. Key new aspects of our approach include (a) a coupling of deep learning based density reconstruction with fast hydrodynamics simulators that will permit the development of certain guarantees on extrapolatability and bounds on certain other hydrodynamics-related para- metric uncertainties and (b) a dual approach towards better characterizing uncertainties in density reconstruction using deep learning based surrogates to accelerate Bayesian reconstructions on the one hand and using variational inference and Bayesian machine learning on the other hand.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Decomposition-Based Learn-To-Optimize Approach with Feasibility Layer Assistance for Sub-Hourly Unit Commitment

Sub-hourly unit commitment (UC) with 15-min intervals is gaining significant attention as a way to respond rapidly to the fluctuations in electricity supply and demand introduced by renewable resources. However, the increased temporal resolution and complex inter-temporal dependencies pose substantial computational challenges for traditional optimization methods. To this end, this paper explores a decomposition-based learn-to-optimize approach. Building on recent advances in machine learning, our method revisits the long- overlooked Lagrangian relaxation framework, which is a classical decomposition technique that enables tractable subproblem solving. These smaller subproblems are inherently well-suited for machine learning, as their reduced dimensionality and structural regularity allow predictive models to efficiently learn and generalize solution patterns. We thus propose a generic predictive model, which embeds Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Attention in the encoder-decoder structure, and integrate a rule-based feasibility layer to capture temporal dependencies, reduce training effort, and improve feasibility w.r.t. unit-level constraints. Our method has been validated on the IEEE 118-bus system, demonstrating promising performance in solving sub-hourly UC problems efficiently and feasibly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

PolyODENet: Deriving mass-action rate equations from incomplete transient kinetics data

Kinetics of a reaction network that follows mass-action rate laws can be described with a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with polynomial right-hand side. However, it is challenging to derive such kinetic differential equations from transient kinetic data without knowing the reaction network, especially when the data are incomplete due to experimental limitations. We introduce a program, PolyODENet, toward this goal. Based on the machine-learning method Neural ODE, PolyODENet defines a generative model and predicts concentrations at arbitrary time. As such, it is possible to include unmeasurable intermediate species in the kinetic equations. Importantly, we have implemented various measures to apply physical constraints and chemical knowledge in the training to regularize the solution space. Here, using simple catalytic reaction models, we demonstrate that PolyODENet can predict reaction profiles of unknown species and doing so even reveal hidden parts of reaction mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enriching OpenStreetMap network data for transportation applications: Insights into the impact of urban congestion on accessibility

OpenStreetMap (OSM) data is a valuable open-source resource for various transportation, traffic, and planning applications. However, OSM network data lack operating traffic speed information, which is critical for transport planning and operations. Addressing this shortcoming, this study leverages commercial vendor data (to serve as ground truth) with exogenous, open-source variables characterizing local transport infrastructure, land use, and demographic information to predict average congested traffic speeds on OSM networks. Three machine-learning models were tested and estimated for OSM links with and without speed limit information in the Denver metropolitan region. Among these, XGBoost performed best, with mean absolute errors of 3.27 and 3.62 mph for links with and without speed limits, respectively. The developed models accurately predicted traffic speeds for different hours and days of the week compared to ground truth data. Using these predicted speeds, drive accessibility scores were computed for the Denver region for different time periods using the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric to understand the impact of congestion on energy-efficient accessibility. Results show that congestion-adjusted drive accessibility can be significantly lower compared to accessibility calculated using free flow speeds. Specifically, weekday evening hours saw a 42 % drop in accessibility due to reduced speeds, particularly around downtown Denver. Across the Denver metro region, approximately half as many opportunities and jobs are accessible in under 20 min by car during the evening peak period relative to free flow conditions. These findings underscore the importance of using congestion-adjusted operating speeds rather than speed limits in accessibility calculations, as reliance on speed limits can substantially overestimate energy-efficient drive accessibility in large, car-centric cities susceptible to significant congestion. In conclusion, the methodology presented here could further enrich OSM network data, making them useful for an even broader range of transportation applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of carbohydrate gene clusters obtained from in vitro fermentations as predictive biomarkers of prebiotic responses

Prebiotic fibers are non-digestible substrates that modulate the gut microbiome by promoting expansion of microbes having the genetic and physiological potential to utilize those molecules. Although several prebiotic substrates have been consistently shown to provide health benefits in human clinical trials, responder and non-responder phenotypes are often reported. These observations had led to interest in identifying, a priori, prebiotic responders and non-responders as a basis for personalized nutrition. In this study, we conducted in vitro fecal enrichments and applied shotgun metagenomics and machine learning tools to identify microbial gene signatures from adult subjects that could be used to predict prebiotic responders and non-responders. Using short chain fatty acids as a targeted response, we identified genetic features, consisting of carbohydrate active enzymes, transcription factors and sugar transporters, from metagenomic sequencing of in vitro fermentations for three prebiotic substrates: xylooligosacharides, fructooligosacharides, and inulin. A machine learning approach was then used to select substrate-specific gene signatures as predictive features. These features were found to be predictive for XOS responders with respect to SCFA production in an in vivo trial. Our results confirm the bifidogenic effect of commonly used prebiotic substrates along with inter-individual microbial responses towards these substrates. We successfully trained classifiers for the prediction of prebiotic responders towards XOS and inulin with robust accuracy (≥ AUC 0.9) and demonstrated its utility in a human feeding trial. Overall, the findings from this study highlight the practical implementation of pre-intervention targeted profiling of individual microbiomes to stratify responders and non-responders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗
DOE OSTI2026

Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Recurrent Neural Network Modeling for Traffic Delay Prediction at Signalized Intersections Along an Urban Arterial

This paper studies the traffic delay prediction modeling for multiple signalized intersections along the Ala Moana Boulevard and Nimitz Highway in Hawaii. Several machine learning (ML) based approaches have been studied in the literature, and most of them focused on prediction accuracy rather than the end use of real-time control and implementation. These ML models tend to be very complex and non-linear in nature, making it challenging to achieve fast inferences and are computationally heavy for real-time signal control implementation. As such, in this paper, a simple yet accurate hybrid modeling method is proposed to predict traffic delay one-step ahead with the model made suitable for real-time implementation to control traffic flow. Since real-time road-side measurements are recorded in unstructured form, the paper also discusses other issues related to data extraction and the pre-processing process. Finally, a simple signal control loop is developed to demonstrate the proposed modeling approach, which has shown advantages in model accuracy and computation efficiency compared against several existing modeling methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Labels as a feature: Network homophily for systematically annotating human GPCR drug-target interactions

Machine learning has revolutionized drug discovery by enabling the exploration of vast, uncharted chemical spaces essential for discovering novel patentable drugs. Despite the critical role of human G protein-coupled receptors in FDA-approved drugs, exhaustive in-distribution drug-target interaction testing across all pairs of human G protein-coupled receptors and known drugs is rare due to significant economic and technical challenges. This often leaves off-target effects unexplored, which poses a considerable risk to drug safety. In contrast to the traditional focus on out-of-distribution exploration (drug discovery), we introduce a neighborhood-to-prediction model termed Chemical Space Neural Networks that leverages network homophily and training-free graph neural networks with labels as features. We show that Chemical Space Neural Networks’ ability to make accurate predictions strongly correlates with network homophily. Thus, labels as features strongly increase a machine learning model’s capacity to enhance in-distribution prediction accuracy, which we show by integrating labeled data during inference. We validate these advancements in a high-throughput yeast biosensing system (3773 drug-target interactions, 539 compounds, 7 human G protein-coupled receptors) to discover novel drug-target interactions for FDA-approved drugs and to expand the general understanding of how to build reliable predictors to guide experimental verification.

Hansson, Frederik G↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarking Coordination Number Prediction Algorithms on Inorganic Crystal Structures

Coordination numbers and geometries form a theoretical framework for understanding and predicting materials properties. Algorithms to determine coordination numbers automatically are increasingly used for machine learning and automatic structural analysis. In this work, we introduce MaterialsCoord, a benchmark suite containing 56 experimentally-derived crystal structures (spanning elements, binaries, and ternary compounds) and their corresponding coordination environments as described in the research literature. We also describe CrystalNN, a novel algorithm for determining near neighbors. We compare CrystalNN against 7 existing near-neighbor algorithms on the MaterialsCoord benchmark, finding CrystalNN to perform similarly to several well-established algorithms. For each algorithm, we also assess computational demand and sensitivity towards small perturbations that mimic thermal motion. Finally, we investigate the similarity between bonding algorithms when applied to the Materials Project database. Finally, we expect that this work will aid the development of coordination prediction algorithms as well as improve structural descriptors for machine learning and other applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cartesian equivariant representations for learning and understanding molecular orbitals

Qualitative and quantitative orbital properties such as bonding/antibonding character, localization, and orbital energies are critical to how chemists understand reactivity, catalysis, and excited-state behavior. Despite this, representations of orbitals in deep learning models have been very underdeveloped relative to representations of molecular geometries and Hamiltonians. Here, we apply state-of-the-art equivariant deep learning architectures to the task of assigning global labels to orbitals, namely energies characterizations, given the molecular coefficients from Hartree–Fock or density functional theory. The architecture we have developed, the Cartesian Equivariant Orbital Network (CEONET), shows how molecular orbital coefficients are readily featurized as equivariant node features common to all graph-based machine-learned potentials. We find that CEONET performs well at predicting difficult quantitative labels such as the orbital energy and orbital entropy. Furthermore, we find that the CEONET representation provides an intuitive latent space for differentiating orbital character for the qualitative assignment of e.g. bonding or antibonding character. In addition to providing a useful representation for further integrating deep learning with electronic structure theory, we expect CEONET to be useful for automatizing and interpreting the results of advanced electronic structure methods such as complete active space self-consistent field theory. In particular, the ability of CEONET to infer multireference character via the orbital entropy paves the way toward the machine-learned selection of active spaces.

chemical reactions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization and Quantification of Radiation-Induced Clusters/Precipitates in RPV Steels Using STEM-EDS and Machine Learning

Over the operational lifespan of a nuclear reactor, reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels are subjected to significant neutron irradiation, resulting in complex microstructural changes and the consequent degradation of mechanical properties. Various physically motivated correlation models have been developed to predict neutron irradiation-induced embrittlement of RPVs under different irradiation conditions. However, the efficient and accurate characterizations and quantification of radiation-induced clusters in RPVs are still challenging, which will affect the precision of the predictive models for embrittlement of RPV components. In the DOE Visiting Faculty Program (VFP) research work at Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL), I integrate machine learning to aid Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy – Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (STEM-EDS) analyses, which improve the characterization and quantification of radiation-induced clusters in RPV steels, thereby enabling more accurate predictions of material behavior under irradiation. The surveillance base- and welded- RPV steels were annealed at various temperatures of 340 °C, 450 °C and 500 °C for up to 168 hours, respectively. Afterwards, I have characterized radiation-induced clusters using advanced STEM-EDS techniques and subsequently applying machine learning algorithms to analyze and refine STEM-EDS datasets, enhancing the quantification of clusters compositions and distributions. In the end, an efficient workflow for integrating STEM-EDS data analysis with machine learning to address challenges including noise reduction has been developed. The completion of this VFP work will support bridge critical gaps in the accurate quantification of radiation-induced clusters in RPV steels using STEM-EDS and support the development of more precise models for predicting RPV embrittlement in the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program supported by Department of Energy and enhancing the collaboration between ORNL and Alred University. The outcome of the VFP project will leverage a few research papers submission to peer-reviewed journals in the relevant scientific field and a few oral presentations at national and international conferences.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrical Resistivity Tomography based monitoring of stress perturbations to optimize placement of high-precision strain meters

The Center for Understanding Subsurface Signals and Permeability is a new U.S. Department of Energy Earthshot Center focused on understanding and predicting the long-term evolution of permeability in enhanced geothermal systems. The center will use a highly instrumented testbed within the Sanford Underground Research Facility to conduct field scale experiments that elucidate and test capabilities to simulate geochemical-geomechanical interactions and permeability evolution. Here we demonstrate initial developments using previously collected electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring data with high-performance multi-physics modelling advancements to inform the optimal location of two new monitoring boreholes. Specifically, ERT monitoring data collected during shear stimulation testing shows marked responses to changes in stress during borehole pressurization. We demonstrate how the same response is being simulated, ultimately to train a machine-learning algorithm to estimate rock properties and enable enhanced prediction of stress and strain responses anticipated during future testing campaigns.

Stress, EGS, CUSSP, 3D Electrical Imaging↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward Interpretable Machine Learning–Based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

Here in this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently not used in many other machine learning predictors for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. The univariate analysis of the features used as input signals in the data-driven algorithms applied on the data of both tokamaks statistically highlights the differences in the dominant disruption precursors. JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge-cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous magnetohydrodynamic modes. Even though the analyzed data sets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show through a few examples that the inclusion of physics-based disruption markers in data-driven algorithms is a promising path toward the realization of a uniform framework to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios across different tokamaks. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be re-used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Antiviral discovery using sparse datasets by integrating experiments, molecular simulations, and machine learning

Computational methods have demonstrated success in identifying virucidal agents, effectively contributing to the discovery of novel virucidal molecules. In this study, we developed a machine learning (ML) model, trained on a small dataset, to predict inhibitors of human enterovirus 71 (EV71), a pathological agent that causes severe disease in children and immunocompromised adults. Despite the dataset’s limitation, comprising of only 36 compounds tested, our ML framework demonstrated significant predictive capability. Notably, experimental validation revealed that five out of the eight compounds predicted by our model from the Chinese cosmetic material list exhibited virucidal activity. The inhibitor effects displayed by the main active compounds were further confirmed by molecular dynamics simulation. This underscores the potential of our AI-driven approach to bypass data constraints in identifying active molecules against viral pathogens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗