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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

A high declination search at 8 GHz for compact radio sources

With the Haystack-NRAO interferometer (baseline length of 20 million wavelengths at 3.8 cm) 37 sources were observed whose declinations were above 50 deg. Seven of these sources have compact cores with diameters smaller than 5 milliarcsec and with correlated flux densities greater than about 0.5 Jy; the remaining sources have no cores with flux densities above about 0.3 Jy, the sensitivity limit of the interferometer. Two of the sources with detected compact cores, 4C 67.05 and 3C 418, were also observed with longer-baseline interferometers; the diameter of the core of 4C 67.05 was estimated to be smaller than 1 milliarcsec and that of 3C 418 to be smaller than 0.4 milliarcsec. All diameter estimates were based on an assumed circular Gaussian distribution of radio brightness and refer to the contour with brightness density e to the -1/2 power times that of the center. Positions for the detected sources were also obtained from the interferometric data, the uncertainty in these coordinate estimates ranging from 0.04 to 0.6 arcsec. The compact core detected in 3C 390.3 was found to lie near the center of this extended (approximately 4 arcmin in diameter) double radio source and to be coincident to within 1 arcsec with an N galaxy previously identified with 3C 390.3.

Wittels, J. J.↗

A fast algorithm for control and estimation using a polynomial state-space structure

One of the major problems associated with the control of flexible structures is the estimation of system states. Since the parameters of the structures are not constant under varying loads and conditions, conventional fixed parameter state estimators can not be used to effectively estimate the states of the system. One alternative is to use a state estimator which adapts to the condition of the system. One such estimator is the Kalman filter. This filter is a time varying recursive digital filter which is based upon a model of the system being measured. This filter adapts the model according to the output of the system. Previously, the Kalman filter has only been used in an off-line capacity due to the computational time required for implementation. With recent advances in computer technology, it is becoming a viable tool for use in the on-line environment. A distributed Kalman filter implementation is described for fast estimation of the state of a flexible arm. A key issue, is the sensor structure and initial work on a distributed sensor that could be used with the Kalman filter is presented.

Shults, James R.↗

An approach to constrained aerodynamic design with application to airfoils

An approach was developed for incorporating flow and geometric constraints into the Direct Iterative Surface Curvature (DISC) design method. In this approach, an initial target pressure distribution is developed using a set of control points. The chordwise locations and pressure levels of these points are initially estimated either from empirical relationships and observed characteristics of pressure distributions for a given class of airfoils or by fitting the points to an existing pressure distribution. These values are then automatically adjusted during the design process to satisfy the flow and geometric constraints. The flow constraints currently available are lift, wave drag, pitching moment, pressure gradient, and local pressure levels. The geometric constraint options include maximum thickness, local thickness, leading-edge radius, and a 'glove' constraint involving inner and outer bounding surfaces. This design method was also extended to include the successive constraint release (SCR) approach to constrained minimization.

Campbell, Richard L.↗

Estimating the path-average rainwater content and updraft speed along a microwave link

There is a scarcity of methods for accurately estimating the mass of rainwater rather than its flux. A recently proposed technique uses the difference between the observed rates of attenuation A with increasing distance at 38 and 25 GHz, A(38-25), to estimate the rainwater content W. Unfortunately, this approach is still somewhat sensitive to the form of the drop-size distribution. An alternative proposed here uses the ratio A38/A25 to estimate the mass-weighted average raindrop size Dm. Rainwater content is then estimated from measurements of polarization propagation differential phase shift (Phi-DP) divided by (1-R), where R is the mass-weighted mean axis ratio of the raindrops computed from Dm. This paper investigates these two water-content estimators using results from a numerical simulation of observations along a microwave link. From these calculations, it appears that the combination (R, Phi-DP) produces more accurate estimates of W than does A38-25. In addition, by combining microwave estimates of W and the rate of rainfall in still air with the mass-weighted mean terminal fall speed derived using A38/A25, it is possible to detect the potential influence of vertical air motion on the raingage-microwave rainfall comparisons.

Jameson, Arthur R.↗

Bayesian Estimation of Precipitation from Satellite Passive Microwave Observations Using Combined Radar-Radiometer Retrievals

Precipitation estimation from satellite passive microwave radiometer observations is a problem that does not have a unique solution that is insensitive to errors in the input data. Traditionally, to make this problem well posed, a priori information derived from physical models or independent, high-quality observations is incorporated into the solution. In the present study, a database of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures is constructed to serve as a priori information in a passive microwave radiometer algorithm. The precipitation profiles are derived from a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar radiometer algorithm, and the brightness temperatures are TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) observed. Because the observed brightness temperatures are consistent with those derived from a radiative transfer model embedded in the combined algorithm, the precipitation brightness temperature database is considered to be physically consistent. The database examined here is derived from the analysis of a month-long record of TRMM data that yields more than a million profiles of precipitation and associated brightness temperatures. These profiles are clustered into a tractable number of classes based on the local sea surface temperature, a radiometer-based estimate of the echo-top height (the height beyond which the reflectivity drops below 17 dBZ), and brightness temperature principal components. For each class, the mean precipitation profile, brightness temperature principal components, and probability of occurrence are determined. The precipitation brightness temperature database supports a radiometer-only algorithm that incorporates a Bayesian estimation methodology. In the Bayesian framework, precipitation estimates are weighted averages of the mean precipitation values corresponding to the classes in the database, with the weights being determined according to the similarity between the observed brightness temperature principal components and the brightness temperature principal components of the classes. Because the classes are stratified by the sea surface temperature and the echo-top-height estimator, the number of classes that are considered for retrieval is significantly smaller than the total number of classes, making the algorithm computationally efficient. The radiometer-only algorithm is applied to TMI observations, and precipitation estimates are compared with combined TRMM precipitation radar (PR) TMI reference estimates. The TMI-only algorithm, supported by the empirically derived database, produces estimates that are more consistent with the reference values than the precipitation estimates from the version-6 TRMM facility TMI algorithm. Cloud-resolving model simulations are used to assign a latent heating profile to each precipitation profile in the empirically derived database, making it possible to estimate latent heating using the radiometer-only algorithm. Although the evaluation of latent heating estimates in this study is preliminary, because realistic conditional probability distribution functions are attached to latent heating structures in the algorithm s database, a generally positive impact on latent heating estimation from passive microwave observations is expected.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Estimating Slopes In Images Of Terrain By Use Of BRDF

Proposed method of estimating slopes of terrain features based on use of bidirectional reflectivity distribution function (BRDF) in analyzing aerial photographs, satellite video images, or other images produced by remote sensors. Estimated slopes integrated along horizontal coordinates to obtain estimated heights; generating three-dimensional terrain maps. Method does not require coregistration of terrain features in pairs of images acquired from slightly different perspectives nor requires Sun or other source of illumination to be low in sky over terrain of interest. On contrary, best when Sun is high. Works at almost all combinations of illumination and viewing angles.

Scholl, Marija S.↗

External calibration of polarimetric radar images using distributed targets

A new technique is presented for calibrating polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images using only the responses from natural distributed targets. The model for polarimetric radars is assumed to be X = cRST where X is the measured scattering matrix corresponding to the target scattering matrix S distorted by the system matrices T and R (in general T does not equal R(sup t)). To allow for the polarimetric calibration using only distributed targets and corner reflectors, van Zyl assumed a reciprocal polarimetric radar model with T = R(sup t); when applied for JPL SAR data, a heuristic symmetrization procedure is used by POLCAL to compensate the phase difference between the measured HV and VH responses and then take the average of both. This heuristic approach causes some non-removable cross-polarization responses for corner reflectors, which can be avoided by a rigorous symmetrization method based on reciprocity. After the radar is made reciprocal, a new algorithm based on the responses from distributed targets with reflection symmetry is developed to estimate the cross-talk parameters. The new algorithm never experiences problems in convergence and is also found to converge faster than the existing routines implemented for POLCAL. When the new technique is implemented for the JPL polarimetric data, symmetrization and cross-talk removal are performed on a line-by-line (azimuth) basis. After the cross-talks are removed from the entire image, phase and amplitude calibrations are carried out by selecting distributed targets either with azimuthal symmetry along the looking direction or with some well-known volume and surface scattering mechanisms to estimate the relative phases and amplitude responses of the horizontal and vertical channels.

Yueh, Simon H.↗

Analytical study of the optimum geometric configuration of a space shuttle materials laboratory

A steady state, collisionless flow analysis was made of the density distribution within a hemisphere-disc system due to independent, uniformly distributed internal gas sources. The model was used to estimate the density within a molecular shield, deployed from the shuttle orbiter, which contained internal experiments having a prescribed gas source. Contour plots of the density distribution within the system were presented for disc-to-hemisphere radius ratios of .1, .3, .5, .7, and for disc-to-hemisphere surface emission flux density ratios of .01, 1, 100. The hemisphere-disc system was compared to the empty hemisphere, and it was found that if the disc emission flux density was the same as the hemisphere and the disc radius was not greater than 1/3 of the hemisphere radius, the increase in density at the center of the hemisphere-disc system was less than 50%.

Clay, F. P., Jr.↗

The impact of sampling scale: A comparison of methods for estimating external contaminant exposure in free-ranging wildlife

The impacts of contaminants on wildlife are dose dependent, and thus being able to track or predict exposure following contamination events is important for monitoring ecosystem health. However, the ability to track exposure in free-ranging wildlife is often severely limited. Consequently, researchers have predominantly relied on simple methods for estimating contaminant exposures in wildlife with little regard for spatial contaminant heterogeneity or an animal’s use of diverse habitats. We evaluated the influence sampling scale (i.e., how finely contaminant distribution and organism’s spatial use of the landscape is mapped) has on (1) realism and (2) conservativeness of exposure estimates. To do this, we monitored the actual exposure of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Fukushima, Japan to radioactive contamination using GPS27 coupled contaminant monitors placed on individual animals. We compared empirical exposures to estimates generated by combining varying amounts of information about an individual boar’s location and/or movement, with the distribution of contamination on the landscape. Here we found that the most realistic exposure estimates were produced when finer-scale contaminant distribution surveys (e.g., airborne surveys) were combined with more accurate estimates of an individual’s space use (e.g., home ranges or core areas). Importantly, estimates of exposure based on single point surveys at a trap site (a simple method commonly used in the literature), did not correlate with actual exposure rates, suggesting dose-effects studies using this method may result in spurious conclusions. These results suggest that researchers seeking realistic estimates of exposure, such as in dose-effect studies, should ensure they have adequately accounted for fine-scale contaminant distribution patterns and areas of higher use by study organisms. However, conservative estimates of exposure i.e., intentionally over-predicting exposure as is done in initial tiers of ecological risk analyses) were not as scale sensitive and could be achieved with a single known location and coarse contaminant distribution maps.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Adjustment of footprint correction for airborne flux mapping over the FIFE site

A meaningful interpretation of airborne flux estimates over nonuniform terrain must consider local advection from nonhomogeneous source distributions (footprint correction). An empirical procedure for footprint correction of airborne flux data obtained in the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) 1989 is presented, based on simple analytical solutions of the diffusion equation which have been adjusted to approximate more realistic solutions. Optimized estimates of surface flux 'maps' derived from airborne observations are then constructed for maximum correlation between flux estimates and independently observed surface characteristics. This paper also includes an analysis of resolution for the given procedure, in terms of amplitude recovery of hypothetical square-wave distributions of surface flux density, and discusses its implications for the interpretation of the optimized estimates of FIFE surface flux maps. Results show that corrected spatial sink distributions are obtained by the current empirical procedure at the cost of considerable reduction in amplitude recovery of small-scale variations in surface flux density. The high spatial correlation observed between corrected flux maps and surface characteristics such as greenness or surface temperature excess is ascribed to the approximately correct positioning of the main flux gradients across the site, which can be expected to have been reproduced with amplitude recovery equal to or greater than 60 percent.

Schuepp, P. H.↗

Long-range planning cost model for support of future space missions by the deep space network

A simple model is suggested to do long-range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSP) support of future space missions. The model estimates total DSN preparation costs and the annual distribution of these costs for long-range budgetary planning. The cost model is based on actual DSN preparation costs from four space missions: Galileo, Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. The model was tested against the four projects and gave cost estimates that range from 18 percent above the actual total preparation costs of the projects to 25 percent below. The model was also compared to two other independent projects: Viking and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS later became Voyager). The model gave cost estimates that range from 2 percent (for Viking) to 10 percent (for MJS) below the actual total preparation costs of these missions.

Sherif, J. S.↗

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Increased signal-to-noise ratios within experimental field trials by regressing spatially distributed soil properties as principal components

Environmental variability poses a major challenge to any field study. Researchers attempt to mitigate this challenge through replication. Thus, the ability to detect experimental signals is determined by the degree of replication and the amount of environmental variation, noise, within the experimental system. A major source of noise in field studies comes from the natural heterogeneity of soil properties which create microtreatments throughout the field. In addition, the variation within different soil properties is often nonrandomly distributed across a field. We explore this challenge through a sorghum field trial dataset with accompanying plant, microbiome, and soil property data. Diverse sorghum genotypes and two watering regimes were applied in a split-plot design. We describe a process of identifying, estimating, and controlling for the effects of spatially distributed soil properties on plant traits and microbial communities using minimal degrees of freedom. Importantly, this process provides a method with which sources of environmental variation in field data can be identified and adjusted, improving our ability to resolve effects of interest and to quantify subtle phenotypes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cloud cover estimation using bispectral satellite measurements

An algorithm has been developed for cloud cover estimation using bispectral satellite measurements. Based on the distribution of pixels in albedo-brightness temperature space, a number of threshold values are applied to identify those pixels which are most likely totally cloud filled. Mean cloudy-column albedo in a region much larger than a single pixel is then estimated and cloud cover computed. The algorithm has been applied to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Geostationary Meteorological Satellite B2 data. Locations of tropical convective cells and the passage of fronts in higher latitudes are identified. Since these features represent the states of large-scale atmospheric circulations, it is concluded that the algorithm can yield consistent cloud data sets useful for climate studies.

Chou, M.-D.↗

CoSHA: Code for Stellar Properties Heuristic Assignment—for the MaStar Stellar Library

We introduce CoSHA: a Code for Stellar properties Heuristic Assignment. In order to estimate the stellar properties, CoSHA implements a Gradient Tree Boosting algorithm to label each star across the parameter space (T eff , $\mathrm{log}g$, [Fe/H], and [α/Fe]). We use CoSHA to estimate the stellar atmospheric parameters of 22,000 unique stars in the MaNGA Stellar Library (MaStar). To quantify the reliability of our approach, we run internal tests, using both the Göttingen Stellar Library (a theoretical library) and the first data release of MaStar, and external tests, by comparing the resulting distributions in the parameter space with the APOGEE estimates of the same properties. In summary, our parameter estimates span the ranges T eff = [2900, 12,000] K, $\mathrm{log}g=[-0.5,5.6]$, [Fe/H] = [-3.74, 0.81], and αM = [-0.22, 1.17]. We report internal (external) uncertainties of the properties of ${\sigma }_{{T}_{\mathrm{eff}}}\sim 43(240)$ K, ${\sigma }_{\mathrm{log}g}\sim 0.2(0.4)$, σ [Fe/H] ~ 0.16(0.24), and σ [α/Fe] ~ 0.09(0.08). These uncertainties are comparable to those of other methods with similar objectives. Despite the fact that CoSHA is not aware of the spatial distributions of these physical properties in the Milky Way, we are able to recover the main trends known in the literature. The catalog of physical properties for MaStar can be accessed online.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Retrieval of Stratospheric Aerosol Size Distribution Parameters Using Satellite Solar Occultation Measurements at Three Wavelengths

In this work, a novel approach for the determination of the particle size distribution (PSD) parameters of stratospheric sulfate aerosols is presented. For this, ratios of extinction coefficients obtained from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station) solar occultation measurements at 449, 756 and 1544 nm were used to retrieve the mode width and median radius of a size distribution assumed to be monomodal lognormal. The estimated errors at the peak of the stratospheric aerosol layer, on average, lie between 20% and 25% for the median radius and 5% and 7% for the mode width. The results are consistent in magnitude with other retrieval results from the literature, but a robust comparison is difficult, mainly because of differences in temporal and spatial coverage. Other quantities like number density and effective radius were also calculated. A major advantage of the described method over other retrieval techniques is that both the median radius and the mode width can be retrieved simultaneously, without having to assume one of them. This is possible due to the broad wavelength spectrum covered by the SAGE III/ISS measurements. Also, the presented method – being based on the analysis of three wavelengths – allows unique solutions for the retrieval of PSD parameters for almost all of the observed extinction spectra, which is not the case when using only two spectral channels. In addition, the extinction coefficients from SAGE III/ISS solar occultation measurements, on which the retrieval is based, are calculated without a priori assumptions about the PSD. For those reasons, the data produced with the presented retrieval technique may be a valuable contribution for a better understanding of the variability of stratospheric aerosol size distributions, e.g. after volcanic eruptions. While this study focuses on describing the retrieval method, and a future study will discuss the PSD parameter data set produced in depth, some exemplary results for background conditions in June 2017 are shown.

Felix Wrana↗

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗