Results for “DEMAND” — Page 86

DOE OSTI2026

Design trade-offs for residential retail tariffs and virtual power plants

Retail rate design and virtual power plants (VPPs) have the potential to shift customer electricity demand and provide economic benefits to utility customers. As the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) and flexible loads increases, retail tariff and program design can impact Bonbright's rate design principles including affordability, fairness, and economic efficiency. We model the effects of residential retail rates and VPP programs on power system costs in Massachusetts under a potential future system with high renewable energy and DER adoption. We model interactions among retail rate design, demand flexibility, and utility costs and identify trade-offs across different rate designs and VPP programs. We estimate that time-of-use (TOU) rates and VPP programs designed to avoid critical peak rates can lower overall system costs by 3.5 %-4.8 %. These lower costs translate to lower electricity bills for 62 %-91 % of customers, depending on the scenario. Although TOU rates with a critical peak VPP program can benefit all customer segments and are economically efficient, a VPP program with flat rates leads to the lowest overall bills for customers. We find that customers with loads that align with peak demand and who participate in critical peak VPP programs can underpay for their contribution to utility costs and shift costs to other customers. While our assumptions about mandatory TOU and/or critical peak pricing likely impact the magnitude of the results, the results highlight the trade-offs of these tariffs and programs and the importance of tariff and program design as demand becomes more flexible and responsive.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Modeling Framework for Evaluating the Drought Resilience of a Surface Water Supply System under Non-stationarity

The future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selected from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.

Zhao, Gang (ORCID:0000000327370530)↗

DOE OSTI2020

A conceptual model for how to design for building envelope characteristics. Impact of thermal comfort intervals and thermal mass on commercial buildings in U.S. climates

The paper presents a simplified conceptual model for energy demand calculations based on building envelope characteristics, thermal mass and local climate. It is based on a network model and lumped analysis of the dynamic process. Characteristic parameters for the buildings are suggested; Driving temperature (DT), Driving temperature difference, (DTD), External Load Temperature (ELT), and Thermal Load Resistance (TLR). The Building Envelope Performance ( BEP 0 ), based on a controlled constant indoor temperature is introduced. Solution techniques using stable explicit forward differences based on analytical solutions are derived. The conceptual model has been used for mapping the Driving temperature difference and introduced two performance factors and . The first factor represents the effect of thermal comfort interval and thermal mass on the energy demand. The latter represents the ratio between cooling and heating energy demand. These three parameters and factors have been visualized on U.S. maps and enable a possibility to communicate the demand of energy, and cooling and the coupling to building characteristics, in a concise way.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mine operations as a smart grid resource: Leveraging excess process storage capacity to better enable renewable energy sources

Not provided.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2018

Estimating manufacturing electricity costs by simulating dependence between production parameters

The electricity costs associated with manufacturing generally consist of an energy charge and a demand charge, which are calculated by total kWh × kWh and peak kW × kW, respectively. While these two charges have been extensively studied with production scheduling, dependence between production parameters has not been thoroughly investigated for production energy costs when the production parameters are assumed to be independent. Such dependence, however, can significantly affect the peak kW and resulting energy costs. Therefore, industrial practitioners need a tool to simulate the production power demand and cost to evaluate energy costs for each production plan and for any dependence in the parameters. In this paper, we propose a method for simulating the power demand at the machine and facility levels, focusing on the dependence in milling machine parameters. Using probabilistic techniques with copulas, we quantify the degree of dependence between two milling parameters (processing times and processing amounts) and build a power demand simulator combining discrete event simulation and numerical simulation models. From 35 illustrative examples, we show that a production strategy to adjust dependence can reduce the peak kW and energy costs by more than 15% and 4%, respectively. In addition to dependence, less variability in processing times results in less peak kW and energy costs. Other factors such as a marginal probability distribution and copula types having the same degree of variability have been found to have limited effects on reducing energy costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability

Cities control the majority of global human resource consumption and serve as hubs of major infrastructural networks. To offset their resource demands, cities derive goods and resources from regions well outside urban boundaries inducing stress and impacts on distal ecosystems. As cities grow, these stressors are likely to increase, depending on choices about how resource demands will be addressed through new infrastructures; hence, city governance is extremely important to future global sustainability. Yet, to support effective decision-making and infrastructure transitions, developing tangible city-scale alternative future scenarios is needed. We present a methodology for developing plausible spatially explicit alternative futures for city infrastructures and discuss the tradeoffs in land, energy, carbon, and water resources among alternative future pathways. We first estimate future city populations and urban boundaries and characterize future land cover scenarios. Future population along with residential housing and commercial characteristics are used to estimate current and future electricity and water demand. We characterize the energysheds of cities, which then become the spatial template for designing future electricity production scenarios. Future electricity mixes and spatial distributions of powerplants provide wide-ranging tradeoffs in carbon reduction, water use reduction, and land usage. Additionally, we explore future alternatives for meeting water supply demands. With this work, we emphasize the importance of translating scenarios into physical on-the-ground relevance in order to ensure transparent communication among city- and utility-governance. Unless spatially explicit future infrastructure scenarios are provided, we believe city-level goals will become difficult to implement, or even worse, result in unintended consequences on regional natural resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Solar-plus-storage economics: What works where, and why?

This paper explores the economics of solar-plus-storage projects for commercial-scale, behind-the-meter applications. It provides insight into the near-term and future solar-plus-storage market opportunities across the U.S. We explore the impacts of location, building load profile, technology cost, utility rate structure, and policies on solar-plus-storage economic viability, and identify which factors are most significant to project economics. While savings from storage-only projects are largely derived from demand charge reductions, solar combined with storage also provides significant energy charge savings. A common assumption is that load profiles with peaks are likely candidates for savings from storage, due to the opportunity for demand charge reduction. Our results indicate that potential for savings from combining solar with storage is independent of building load variability, likely due to the energy cost reductions from the solar. Systems are more often economical under time of use and demand charge rates, particularly when demand charges are >$10 per kilowatt. Where systems were found to be economical, expected lifetime savings averaged between 7%-10%, with savings of 30% in numerous cases. Near term markets exist for solar-plus-storage in locations such as California and New York. As technology prices drop, the number of building types that can benefit increase, and additional markets appear in Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska. All data from the study and interactive modeling results are available at: https://openei.org/wiki/Solar+Storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the potential of biogas systems for energy production and climate solutions in rural communities

On-site conversion of organic waste into biogas to satisfy consumer energy demand has the potential to realize energy equality and mitigate climate change reliably. However, existing methods ignore either real-time full supply or methane escape when supply and demand are mismatched. Here, we show an improved design of community biogas production and distribution system to overcome these and achieve full co-benefits in developing economies. We take five existing systems as empirical examples. Mechanisms of synergistic adjusting out-of-step biogas flow rates on both the plant-side and user-side are defined to obtain consumption-to-production ratios of close to 1, such that biogas demand of rural inhabitants can be met. Furthermore, carbon mitigation and its viability under universal prevailing climates are illustrated. Coupled with manure management optimization, Chinese national deployment of the proposed system would contribute a 3.77% reduction towards meeting its global 1.5 °C target. Additionally, fulfilling others’ energy demands has considerable decarbonization potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Evidence on Latency in a Fleet of Controllable Water Heaters

Demand response is an important emerging part of smart grids with wide coverage in theoretical and modeling research. However, experimental evidence on the real-life behavior of controllable loads is still limited. We present observations regarding latency and communication aspects of the operation on a fleet of residential water heaters in a smart neighborhood in Atlanta, GA. Our analysis shows that latency in water heaters is not constant and does not follow a Gaussian distribution. We also find that there is a systematic relationship between latency and hour of the day. Latency was found to increase during morning and evening hours compared to the afternoon. These findings could help better plan deployment of control for demand response programs. Understanding delays associated with controlling smart devices is crucial for proper design and algorithm development for optimization, frequency of dispatch, and override detection.

communication delay↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unified Modeling Architecture for Load Management in Extreme Heat: The New York City Case

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on this key subject by assessing the feasibility of using coastal-urban renewable energy resources, namely, offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems, to meet electricity demand of New York City during the intense recent heat wave period of June 2025. A unified modeling framework, based on the urbanized weather research and forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources, and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load mismatch of approximately 1150 GWh over the month, between the demand and the combined renewable generation outcome. Three storage integration scenarios are analyzed to mitigate the deficits, reducing said deficits by a minimum of approximately 9% over the duration of the month. This study provides a transferable modeling framework tool for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban environments that can be used by grid operators to support grid resilience during extreme heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System

This report examines how the bulk power system may need to evolve to accommodate the increased photovoltaic (PV) penetration resulting from achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot cost targets. The variable and uncertain nature of PV-generated electricity presents grid-integration challenges. For example, the changing net load associated with high midday PV generation and low electricity demand can create 'overgeneration' that requires curtailment of PV output and reduces PV's value and cost-competitiveness. Accommodating the changes in net load resulting from increased variable generation requires enhancements to a power system's 'flexibility,' or ability to balance supply and demand over multiple time scales through options including changes in system operation, flexible generation, reserves from solar, demand response, energy storage, and enhanced transmission and regional coordination. For utility-scale PV with a baseline SunShot levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh, increasing the annual energy demand met by solar energy from 10% to 20% would increase the marginal LCOE of PV from 6 cents/kWh to almost 11 cents/kWh in a California grid system with limited flexibility. However, increasing system flexibility could minimize solar curtailment and keep PV cost-competitive at penetrations at least as high as 25%. In the longer term, energy storage technologies--such as concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage--could facilitate the cost-effective integration of even higher PV penetration. Efficient deployment of the grid-flexibility options needed to maintain solar's value will require various innovations, from the development of communication, control, and energy storage technologies to the implementation of new market rules and operating procedures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Control Strategies to Reduce the Energy Consumption of Central Domestic Hot Water Systems

Domestic hot water (DHW) heating is the second largest energy end use in U.S. buildings, exceeded only by space conditioning. Recirculation systems consisting of a pump and piping loop(s) are commonly used in multifamily buildings to reduce wait time for hot water at faucets; however, constant pumping increases energy consumption by exposing supply and return line piping to continuous heat loss, even during periods when there is no demand for hot water. In this study, ARIES installed and tested two types of recirculation controls in a pair of buildings in order to evaluate their energy savings potential. Demand control, temperature modulation controls, and the simultaneous operation of both were compared to the baseline case of constant recirculation. Additionally, interactive effects between DHW control fuel reductions and space conditioning (heating and cooling) were estimated in order to make more realistic predictions of the payback and financial viability of retrofitting DHW systems with these controls. Results showed that DHW fuel consumption reduced by 7% after implementing the demand control technique, 2% after implementing temperature modulation, and 15% after implementing demand control and temperature modulation techniques simultaneously; recirculation pump runtime was reduced to 14 minutes or less per day. With space heating and cooling interactions included, the estimated annual cost savings were 8%, 1%, and 14% for the respective control techniques. Possible complications in the installation, commissioning and operation of the controls were identified and solutions offered.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Control Strategies to Reduce the Energy Consumption of Central Domestic Hot Water Systems

Domestic hot water (DHW) heating is the second largest energy end use in U.S. buildings, exceeded only by space conditioning. Recirculation systems consisting of a pump and piping loop(s) are commonly used in multifamily buildings to reduce wait time for hot water at faucets; however, constant pumping increases energy consumption by exposing supply and return line piping to continuous heat loss, even during periods when there is no demand for hot water. In this study, ARIES installed and tested two types of recirculation controls in a pair of buildings in order to evaluate their energy savings potential. Demand control, temperature modulation controls, and the simultaneous operation of both were compared to the baseline case of constant recirculation. Additionally, interactive effects between DHW control fuel reductions and space conditioning (heating and cooling) were estimated in order to make more realistic predictions of the payback and financial viability of retrofitting DHW systems with these controls. Results showed that DHW fuel consumption reduced by 7% after implementing the demand control technique, 2% after implementing temperature modulation, and 15% after implementing demand control and temperature modulation techniques simultaneously; recirculation pump runtime was reduced to 14 minutes or less per day. With space heating and cooling interactions included, the estimated annual cost savings were 8%, 1%, and 14% for the respective control techniques. Possible complications in the installation, commissioning and operation of the controls were identified and solutions offered.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

CTOP↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

integrated demand management↗

DOE OSTI2016

Building America Case Study: Control Retrofits for Multifamily Domestic Hot Water Recirculation Systems, Brooklyn, New York

Domestic hot water (DHW) heating is the second largest energy end use in U.S. buildings, exceeded only by space conditioning. Recirculation systems consisting of a pump and piping loop(s) are commonly used in multifamily buildings to reduce wait time for hot water at faucets; however, constant pumping increases energy consumption by exposing supply and return line piping to continuous heat loss, even during periods when there is no demand for hot water. In this study, ARIES installed and tested two types of recirculation controls in a pair of buildings in order to evaluate their energy savings potential. Demand control, temperature modulation controls, and the simultaneous operation of both were compared to the baseline case of constant recirculation. Additionally, interactive effects between DHW control fuel reductions and space conditioning (heating and cooling) were estimated in order to make more realistic predictions of the payback and financial viability of retrofitting DHW systems with these controls. Results showed that DHW fuel consumption reduced by 7 percent after implementing the demand control technique, 2 percent after implementing temperature modulation, and 15 percent after implementing demand control and temperature modulation techniques simultaneously; recirculation pump runtime was reduced to 14 minutes or less per day. With space heating and cooling interactions included, the estimated annual cost savings were 8 percent, 1 percent, and 14 percent for the respective control techniques. Possible complications in the installation, commissioning and operation of the controls were identified and solutions offered.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Building America Case Study: Control Retrofits for Multifamily Domestic Hot Water Recirculation Systems, Brooklyn, New York

Domestic hot water (DHW) heating is the second largest energy end use in U.S. buildings, exceeded only by space conditioning. Recirculation systems consisting of a pump and piping loop(s) are commonly used in multifamily buildings to reduce wait time for hot water at faucets; however, constant pumping increases energy consumption by exposing supply and return line piping to continuous heat loss, even during periods when there is no demand for hot water. In this study, ARIES installed and tested two types of recirculation controls in a pair of buildings in order to evaluate their energy savings potential. Demand control, temperature modulation controls, and the simultaneous operation of both were compared to the baseline case of constant recirculation. Additionally, interactive effects between DHW control fuel reductions and space conditioning (heating and cooling) were estimated in order to make more realistic predictions of the payback and financial viability of retrofitting DHW systems with these controls. Results showed that DHW fuel consumption reduced by 7% after implementing the demand control technique, 2% after implementing temperature modulation, and 15% after implementing demand control and temperature modulation techniques simultaneously; recirculation pump runtime was reduced to 14 minutes or less per day. With space heating and cooling interactions included, the estimated annual cost savings were 8%, 1%, and 14% for the respective control techniques. Possible complications in the installation, commissioning and operation of the controls were identified and solutions offered.

ARIES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Short-Lived Modules Need to be Efficient, Lightweight, and Circular for the Energy Transition

Deployment projections for decarbonizing the grid predict 1.75 TW of PV is needed in the United States by 2050. This entails a cumulative demand of 97 million metric tonnes of virgin materials for c-Si modules. These material needs are extraction and energy intensive, making them a key target for improving PV sustainability. Emerging PV technologies, such as perovskites, are targeting 15-year modules, high efficiencies, and circular designs. Previous analysis found that by just modifying the life expectancy to 15 years (keeping target c-Si efficiencies and BOM), an additional 1.4 TW of replacement modules are required to maintain capacity, increasing virgin material demand by 1.75x unless >95% closed-loop recycling is maintained. This study examines the effect of achieving higher efficiencies with thin-film designs and a 15-year expectancy. Higher efficiencies and thin film designs can decrease deployment and material demands, making the level of circularity more attainable. If BOM mass is reduced by 50%, closed-loop recycling rates need to be >80% to reduce virgin material demands compared to a 35-yr c-Si module. If module efficiencies are 30%, closed-loop recycling rates can be reduced to 65%. This efficiency increase also reflects that 1500 million fewer modules can be deployed, however, this is still 2000 million more modules than a 35-year module needs to deploy to achieve energy transition targets, and no PV technology is closed-loop recycled for all component materials.

circular economy↗