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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-objective parametrization of interatomic potentials for large deformation pathways and fracture of two-dimensional materials

Abstract This investigation presents a generally applicable framework for parameterizing interatomic potentials to accurately capture large deformation pathways. It incorporates a multi-objective genetic algorithm, training and screening property sets, and correlation and principal component analyses. The framework enables iterative definition of properties in the training and screening sets, guided by correlation relationships between properties, aiming to achieve optimal parametrizations for properties of interest. Specifically, the performance of increasingly complex potentials, Buckingham, Stillinger-Weber, Tersoff, and modified reactive empirical bond-order potentials are compared. Using MoSe 2 as a case study, we demonstrate good reproducibility of training/screening properties and superior transferability. For MoSe 2 , the best performance is achieved using the Tersoff potential, which is ascribed to its apparent higher flexibility embedded in its functional form. These results should facilitate the selection and parametrization of interatomic potentials for exploring mechanical and phononic properties of a large library of two-dimensional and bulk materials.

Zhang, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of transport in the JET DTE2 discharges with TGLF and NEO models using the TGYRO transport code

Abstract The JET Deuterium-Tritium-Experiment Campaign 2 (DTE2) has demonstrated the highest-ever fusion energy production. To forecast the transport dynamics within these discharges, the TGLF and NEO models within the TGYRO transport code were employed. A critical development in this study is the new quasilinear transport model, TGLF-SAT2, specifically designed to resolve discrepancies identified in JET deuterium discharges. This model accurately describes the saturated three-dimensional (3D) fluctuation spectrum, aligning closely with a database of nonlinear CGYRO turbulence simulations, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy of TGYRO simulations. In validating against the JET DTE2 discharges across two primary operating scenarios, TGYRO effectively predicted the temperature profiles within a broad radial window ( ρ ∼ 0.2–0.85), though with minor ion temperature discrepancies near the core. However, a consistent underprediction of electron density profiles by 20% across the simulation domain was noted, indicating areas for future refinement. To achieve a self-consistent steady-state solution based on the JET DTE2 discharges, an integrated modeling workflow TGYRO-STEP within the OMFIT framework was introduced. This workflow iterates among the core transport, the pedestal pressure and the MHD equilibrium, ultimately yielding a converged solution that significantly reduces dependence on experimental boundary conditions for temperature and density profiles. The integrated simulation results show negligible differences in electron density and temperature profiles compared to standalone TGYRO modeling, while the ion temperature profile is lower due to the updated boundary condition in TGYRO-STEP. The application of the TGYRO-STEP workflow to JET DTE2 discharges serves as a crucial test to validate its robustness and highlights its limitations, providing valuable insights for its potential future application in ITER and Fusion Power Plant deuterium and tritium prediction modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fundamental limitations on photoisomerization from thermodynamic resource theories

Small, out-of-equilibrium, and quantum systems defy simple thermodynamic expressions. Such systems are exemplified by molecular switches, which exchange heat with a bath. These molecules can photoisomerize, or change conformation, or switch, on absorbing light. The photoisomerization probability depends on kinetic details that couple the molecule’s energetics to its dissipation. Therefore, a simple, general, thermodynamic-style bound on the photoisomerization probability seems out of reach. We derive such a bound using a resource theory. The resource-theory framework is a set of mathematical tools, developed in quantum information theory, used to generalize thermodynamics to small and quantum settings. From this toolkit has been derived a generalization of the second law, the thermomajorization preorder. We use thermomajorization to upper-bound the photoisomerization probability. Then, we compare the bound with an equilibrium prediction and with a Lindbladian model. We identify a realistic parameter regime in which the Lindbladian evolution saturates the thermomajorization bound. We also quantify the energy coherence in the electronic degree of freedom, and we argue that this coherence cannot promote photoisomerization. Overall, this work illustrates how quantum-information-theoretic thermodynamics can elucidate complex quantum processes in nature, experiments, and synthetics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ring artifact and Poisson noise attenuation via volumetric multiscale nonlocal collaborative filtering of spatially correlated noise

X-ray micro-tomography systems often suffer from high levels of noise. In particular, severe ring artifacts are common in reconstructed images, caused by defects in the detector, calibration errors, and fluctuations producing streak noise in the raw sinogram data. Furthermore, the projections commonly contain high levels of Poissonian noise arising from the photon-counting detector. This work presents a 3-D multiscale framework for streak attenuation through a purposely designed collaborative filtering of correlated noise in volumetric data. A distinct multiscale denoising step for attenuation of the Poissonian noise is further proposed. By utilizing the volumetric structure of the projection data, the proposed fully automatic procedure offers improved feature preservation compared with 2-D denoising and avoids artifacts which arise from individual filtering of sinograms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Effective Impedance Estimation for Power System State Estimation

Here, we introduce two tools-the Effective Impedance State Estimator (EISE), and the Real Time Effective Impedance Estimator (RTEIE). The EISE is novel in that it is an entirely data-driven state estimator, and does not require a network model. Thus, the EISE is well suited for applications in which an accurate network model is not available. Instead of using a network impedance model, the EISE uses an effective impedance network model that is learned online by the RTEIE. The RTEIE recursively estimates the effective impedance network model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. The mathematical reasoning for using an effective impedance model, rather than a full network impedance model, is given. The recursive estimation framework allows the RTEIE to take the entire history of phasor measurements into account to produce a model estimate, while still adjusting to changes in the network impedance due to external factors such as topology changes and temperature. The merits of the RTEIE and EISE are demonstrated by comparing the accuracy of the EISE with a conventional state estimator on a toy network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ENnUI : Exemplar Navigator Using Inertial Sensors

SAND2025-04794O ENnUI: Exemplar Navigator Using Inertial Sensors helps users understand and compare different navigation algorithms that rely on inertial sensors. This reference library offers a collection of reference mechanization equations and methods for estimating the position and movement of vehicles over time. Rather than aiming for the highest precision or performance, ENnUI focuses on creating a user-friendly framework that allows users to benchmark their own algorithms against a standard set of tools. It is useful for post-processing data and real-time navigation solutions. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Walker II, Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regression Based Approach for Robust Finite Element Analysis on Arbitrary Grids. LDRD Final Report

This report summarizes the work performed under a one-year LDRD project aiming to enable accurate and robust numerical simulation of partial differential equations for meshes that are of poor quality. Traditional finite element methods use the mesh to both discretize the geometric domain and to define the finite element shape functions. The latter creates a dependence between the quality of the mesh and the properties of the finite element basis that may adversely affect the accuracy of the discretized problem. In this project, we propose a new approach for defining finite element shape functions that breaks this dependence and separates mesh quality from the discretization quality. At the core of the approach is a meshless definition of the shape functions, which limits the purpose of the mesh to representing the geometric domain and integrating the basis functions without having any role in their approximation quality. The resulting non-conforming space can be utilized within a standard discontinuous Galerkin framework providing a rigorous foundation for solving partial differential equations on low-quality meshes. We present a collection of numerical experiments demonstrating our approach in a wide range of settings: strongly coercive elliptic problems, linear elasticity in the compressible regime, and the stationary Stokes problem. We demonstrate convergence for all problems and stability for element pairs for problems which usually require inf-sup compatibility for conforming methods, also referring to a minor modification possible through the symmetric interior penalty Galerkin framework for stabilizing element pairs that would otherwise be traditionally unstable. Mesh robustness is particularly critical for elasticity, and we provide an example that our approach provides a greater than 5x improvement in accuracy and allows for taking an 8x larger stable timestep for a highly deformed mesh, compared to the continuous Galerkin finite element method. The report concludes with a brief summary of ongoing projects and collaborations that utilize or extend the products of this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Quantum Machine Learning to High Energy Physics Analysis at LHC Using Quantum Computer Simulators and Quantum Computer Hardware

Machine learning enjoys widespread success in High Energy Physics (HEP) analyses at LHC. However the ambitious HL-LHC program will require much more computing resources in the next two decades. Quantum computing may offer speed-up for HEP physics analyses at HL-LHC, and can be a new computational paradigm for big data analyses in High Energy Physics.We have successfully employed three methods (1) Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) method, (2) Quantum Support Vector Machine Kernel (QSVM-kernel) method and (3) Quantum Neural Network (QNN) method for two LHC flagship analyses: ttH (Higgs production in association with two top quarks) and H->mumu (Higgs decay to two muons, the second generation fermions). We shall address the progressive improvements in performance from method (1) to method (3).We will present our experiences and results of a study on LHC High Energy Physics data analyses with IBM Quantum Simulator and Quantum Hardware (using IBM Qiskit framework), Google Quantum Simulator (using Google Cirq framework), and Amazon Quantum Simulator (using Amazon Braket cloud service). The work is in the context of a Qubit platform (a gate-model quantum computer). Taking into account the present limitation of hardware access, different quantum machine learning methods are studied on simulators and the results are compared with classical machine learning methods (BDT, classical Support Vector Machine and classical Neural Network). Furthermore, we do apply quantum machine learning on IBM quantum hardware to compare performance between quantum simulator and quantum hardware. The work is performed by an international and interdisciplinary collaboration with the Department of Physics and Department of Computer Sciences of University of Wisconsin, CERN Quantum Technology Initiative, IBM Research Zurich, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Fermilab Quantum Institute, BNL Computational Science Initiative, State University of New York at Stony Brook, and Quantum Computing and AI Research of Amazon Web Services. This work pioneers a close collaboration of academic institutions with industrial corporations in the High Energy Physics analyses effort. Though the size of event samples in future HL-LHC physics and the limited number of qubits pose some challenges to the Quantum Machine learning studies for High Energy Physics, more advanced quantum computers with larger number of qubits, reduced noise and improved running time (as envisioned by IBM and Google) may outperform classical machine learning in both classification power and in speed.Although the era of efficient quantum computing may still be years away, we have made promising progress and obtained preliminary results in applying quantum machine learning to High Energy Physics. A PROOF OF PRINCIPLE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prototypical Region Proposal Networks for Few-Shot Localization and Classification

Recently proposed few-shot image classification methods have generally focused on use cases where the objects to be classified are the central subject of images. Despite success on benchmark vision datasets aligned with this use case, these methods typically fail on use cases involving densely-annotated, busy images: images common in the wild where objects of relevance are not the central subject, instead appearing potentially occluded, small, or among other incidental objects belonging to other classes of potential interest. To localize relevant objects, we employ a prototype-based few-shot segmentation model which compares the encoded features of unlabeled query images with support class centroids to produce region proposals indicating the presence and location of support set classes in a query image. These region proposals are then used as additional conditioning input to few-shot image classifiers. We develop a framework to unify the two stages (segmentation and classification) into an end-to-end classification model---PRoPnet---and empirically demonstrate that our methods improve accuracy on image datasets with natural scenes containing multiple object classes.

Skomski, Steven E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of Scaffold Architecture and Excess Surface Polymer Layers in a 3D-Interconnected Ceramic/Polymer Composite Electrolyte

3D-interconnected ceramic/polymer composite electrolytes offer promise to combine the benefits of both ceramic and polymer electrolytes. However, an in-depth understanding of the role of the ceramic scaffold's architecture, and the associated polymer/ceramic interfaces on the electrochemical properties of such composite electrolytes is still incomplete. Here, these factors are systematically evaluated using an interconnected composite electrolyte with a tunable and well-defined architecture. The ionic conductivity of the ceramic scaffold is strongly dependent on its porosity and tortuosity, as demonstrated experimentally and via theoretical modeling. The connectivity of the ceramic framework avoids the high interfacial impedance at the polymer/ceramic electrolyte interface within the composite. However, this work discovers that the interfacial impedance between the bulk composite and excess surface polymer layers of the composite membrane dominates the overall impedance, resulting in a 1–2 order drop of ionic conductivity compared to the ceramic scaffold. Despite the high impedance interfaces, an improved Li + transference number is found compared to the neat polymer (0.29 vs 0.05), attributed to the ceramic phase's contributions toward ion transport. Further, this leads to flatter overpotentials in lithium symmetric cell cycling. These results are expected to guide future research directions toward scalable manufacturing of composite electrolytes with optimized architecture and interfaces.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transport phenomena in electrolyte solutions: Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and statistical mechanics

The theory of transport phenomena in multicomponent electrolyte solutions is presented here through the integration of continuum mechanics, electromagnetism, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics. The governing equations of irreversible thermodynamics, including balance laws, Maxwell's equations, internal entropy production, and linear laws relating the thermodynamic forces and fluxes, are derived. Green–Kubo relations for the transport coefficients connecting electrochemical potential gradients and diffusive fluxes are obtained in terms of the flux–flux time correlations. Furthermore, the relationship between the derived transport coefficients and those of the Stefan–Maxwell and infinitely dilute frameworks are presented, and the connection between the transport matrix and experimentally measurable quantities is described. To exemplify the application of the derived Green–Kubo relations in molecular simulations, the matrix of transport coefficients for lithium and chloride ions in dimethyl sulfoxide is computed using classical molecular dynamics and compared with experimental measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Universal relations for holographic interfaces

We study the entanglement entropy in 1+1 dimensional conformal field theories in the presence of interfaces from a holographic perspective. Compared with the well-known case of boundary conformal field theories, interfaces allow for several interesting new observables. Depending on how the interface is located within the entangling region, the entanglement entropies differ and exhibit surprising new patterns and universal relations. While our analysis is performed within the framework of holography, we expect our results to hold more generally.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Minkowskian effective field theory for conservative binary dynamics

We develop an Effective Field Theory (EFT) formalism to solve for the conservative dynamics of binary systems in gravity via Post-Minkowskian (PM) scattering data. Our framework combines a systematic EFT approach to compute the deflection angle in the PM expansion, together with the ‘Boundary-to-Bound’ (B2B) dictionary introduced. Due to the nature of scattering processes, a remarkable reduction of complexity occurs both in the number of Feynman diagrams and type of integrals, compared to a direct EFT computation of the potential in a PM scheme. We provide two illustrative examples. Firstly, we compute all the conservative gravitational observables for bound orbits to 2PM, which follow from only one topology beyond leading order. The results agree with those, obtained through the ‘impetus formula’ applied to the classical limit of the one loop amplitude. For the sake of comparison we reconstruct the conservative Hamiltonian to 2PM order, which is equivalent to the one derived from a matching calculation. Secondly, we compute the scattering angle due to tidal effects from the electric- and magnetic-type Love numbers at leading PM order. Using the B2B dictionary we then obtain the tidal contribution to the periastron advance. We also construct a Hamiltonian including tidal effects at leading PM order. Although relying on (relativistic) Feynman diagrams, the EFT formalism developed here does not involve taking the classical limit of a quantum amplitude, neither integrals with internal massive fields, nor additional matching calculations, nor spurious (‘super-classical’) infrared singularities. By construction, the EFT approach can be automatized to all PM orders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

FIRM: federated image reconstruction using multimodal tomographic data

Here, we propose a federated algorithm for reconstructing images using multimodal tomographic data sourced from dispersed locations, addressing the challenges of traditional unimodal approaches that are prone to noise and reduced image quality, as well as the limitations of centralized multimodal approaches that require extensive data transfer, leading to significant communication overhead, storage demands, and potential data privacy concerns. Our approach formulates a joint inverse optimization problem incorporating multimodality constraints and solves it in a federated framework through local gradient computations complemented by lightweight central operations, thereby ensuring data decentralization. Leveraging the connection between our federated algorithm and the quadratic penalty method, we introduce an adaptive step-size rule with guaranteed sublinear convergence. Numerical results demonstrate superior computational efficiency and improved image reconstruction quality compared to existing approaches.

federated algorithm↗