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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

Development of Waste Inventory for Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling - 19361

Estimation of radioactive waste inventory is a key initial step in the development of an environmental fate and transport model for performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste sites. PA model output is often sensitive to parameters that represent inventory as a source term, yet estimation is a difficult problem. Inventory estimation for a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) is related to, but distinct from, that performed for waste excavation, characterization, and offsite disposal. The latter appropriately focuses on obtaining the most detailed information possible on specific hazards and locations; however, these questions cannot be fully answered without intrusive site characterization efforts. This type of characterization is often not feasible when assembling information regarding a source term in a PPA model. Development of waste inventory for a PPA is one piece of a larger hierarchical model. The physical process model represented by Goldsim computer code represents one level of the hierarchy, and the second level of the hierarchy involves estimation of inputs such as inventory, transport, and risk parameters. The estimation of inputs is not a straightforward problem. The parameters of a computer model often do not have an equivalence to the physical quantities they describe, and estimation of the physical quantities themselves can be difficult due to limitations of available information. Inventory information for the West Valley Site in upstate New York is based on data from historical shipping and disposal forms. In the 1990's, the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) compiled information from existing databases and historical waste records into one complete modern database. A conceptual model was then applied and used with recorded information to characterize the waste mass and radionuclide composition for each waste burial. Information was ultimately aggregated over all waste records to estimate the mass of each radionuclide within each trench, hole, or caisson. Three decades later, we revisit the master database, make updates with newly-identified information, and incorporate the conceptual model previously used for inventory estimation in the hierarchical modeling framework. We characterize uncertainty using probability distributions for waste mass and radionuclide composition at the individual shipment or individual burial level. Uncertainty incorporated at the lowest level of the hierarchy is ultimately carried through to uncertainty in PPA model endpoints. Sensitivity analysis of early model results is then applied to identify influential inputs and guide subsequent efforts towards parameters that drive risk. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quantitative simulation of a magnetospheric substorm. I - Model logic and overview

Results of a comprehensive computer simulation of the behavior of the earth's inner magnetosphere during a substorm-type event are reported. It is pointed out that the computer model self-consistently computes electric fields, currents, and plasma distributions and velocities in the inner-magnetosphere/ionosphere system; parallel electric fields and ionospheric neutral winds, however, are not included. The basic equations of the model are derived, and the inputs are described. An overview of the results is also given. The first appendix contains derivations of general, useful laws of bounce-averaged gradient, curvature, and E x B drifts in a plasma with isotropic pitch angle distribution. The second appendix gives a description of the numerical method used in the simulation.

Harel, M.↗

Surrogate modeling of Cellular-Potts agent-based models as a segmentation task using the U-Net neural network architecture

The Cellular-Potts model is a powerful and ubiquitous framework for developing computational models for simulating complex multicellular biological systems. Cellular-Potts models (CPMs) are often computationally expensive due to the explicit modeling of interactions among large numbers of individual model agents and diffusive fields described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) surrogate model using a U-Net architecture that accounts for periodic boundary conditions. We use this model to accelerate the evaluation of a mechanistic CPM previously used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. The surrogate model was trained to predict 100 computational steps ahead (Monte-Carlo steps, MCS), accelerating simulation evaluations by a factor of 562 times compared to single-core CPM code execution on CPU. Over short timescales of up to 3 recursive evaluations, or 300 MCS, our model captures the emergent behaviors demonstrated by the original Cellular-Potts model such as vessel sprouting, extension and anastomosis, and contraction of vascular lacunae. This approach demonstrates the potential for deep learning to serve as a step toward efficient surrogate models for CPM simulations, enabling faster evaluation of computationally expensive CPM simulations of biological processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Bayesian Approach for Quantifying Data Scarcity when Modeling Human Behavior via Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Computational models that formalize complex human behaviors enable study and understanding of such behaviors. However, collecting behavior data required to estimate the parameters of such models is often tedious and resource intensive. Thus, estimating dataset size as part of data collection planning (also known as Sample Size Determination) is important to reduce the time and effort of behavior data collection while maintaining an accurate estimate of model parameters. In this paper, we present a sample size determination method based on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for a specific Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) model of human behavior, in two cases: 1) pre-hoc experiment design—conducted in the planning stage before any data is collected, to guide the estimation of how many samples to collect; and 2) post-hoc dataset analysis—performed after data is collected, to decide if the existing dataset has sufficient samples and whether more data is needed. Here, we validate our approach in experiments with a realistic model of behaviors of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and illustrate how to pick a reasonable sample size target. Our work enables model designers to perform a deeper, principled investigation of effects of dataset size on IRL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis and modeling of Nannochloropsis growth in lab, greenhouse, and raceway experiments

Efficient production of algal biofuels could reduce dependence on foreign oil by providing a domestic renewable energy source. Moreover, algae-based biofuels are attractive for their large oil yield potential despite decreased land use and natural resource (e.g., water and nutrients) requirements compared to terrestrial energy crops. Important factors controlling algal lipid productivity include temperature, nutrient availability, salinity, pH, and the light-to-biomass conversion rate. Here, computational approaches allow for inexpensive predictions of algae growth kinetics for various bioreactor sizes and geometries without the need for multiple, expensive measurement systems. Parametric studies of algal species include serial experiments that use off-line monitoring of growth and lipid levels. Such approaches are time consuming and usually incomplete, and studies on the effect of the interaction between various parameters on algal growth are currently lacking. However, these are the necessary precursors for computational models, which currently lack the data necessary to accurately simulate and predict algae growth. In this work, we conduct a lab-scale parametric study of the marine alga Nannochloropsis salina and apply the findings to our physics-based computational algae growth model. We then compare results from the model with experiments conducted in a greenhouse tank and an outdoor, open-channel raceway pond. Results show that the computational model effectively predicts algae growth in systems across varying scale and identifies the causes for reductions in algal productivities. Applying the model facilitates optimization of pond designs and improvements in strain selection.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Computational Experiment Design for Operations Model Simulation

Computer simulations that demonstrate the value of novel approaches are crucial to developing more flexible and robust power systems operations with high penetrations of renewable energy at multiple geographic and temporal scales. However, optimization-based simulations that depend on forecast data often face challenges in evaluating performance, reproducing results, and testing under realistic simulation scenarios. In this paper, we develop scientific computing best-practices for the validation and reproduction of power systems operational models. We then employ two case studies to demonstrate the proposed validation and reproduction framework.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗

Electricity Capacity Expansion Modeling, Analysis, and Visualization. A Summary of High-Renewable Modeling Experience for China

Mathematical and computational models are widely used for the analysis and design of both physical and financial systems. Modeling the electric grid is of particular importance to China for three reasons. First, power-sector assets are expensive and long-lived, and they are critical to any country's development. China's electric load, transmission, and other energy-related infrastructure are expected to continue to grow rapidly; therefore it is crucial to understand and help plan for the future in which those assets will operate (NDRC ERI 2015). Second, China has dramatically increased its deployment of renewable energy (RE), and is likely to continue further accelerating such deployment over the coming decades. Careful planning and assessment of the various aspects (technical, economic, social, and political) of integrating a large amount of renewables on the grid is required. Third, companies need the tools to develop a strategy for their own involvement in the power market China is now developing, and to enable a possible transition to an efficient and high RE future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Models of the upper atmosphere

Several computer models of the thermosphere are discussed. J70MM, the Jacchia 1970 model with matrix and matrix mean output, and J703X, the Jacchia 1970, 1971, and 1977 models, are of primary interest. The subroutines in these programs were studied in detail, and several mistakes were found and corrected. It is proposed that a weighted average of the three-hour geomagnetic index be used in the models rather than a single index value. The densities (for a given date and time) generated by the J703X program (all three models), using both a single value of the index and weighted averages for three different lag times, are tabulated and discussed. Most of the equations used in the models are the results of empirical curve fits. An attempt was made to generate a theoretical prediction of the thermospheric temperature profile based on a simple physical model of atmospheric heat conduction in a spherically-symmetric shell. The exponential heating theory and the temperature dependence of k are discussed.

Davis, T. M.↗

Laser beam modeling in optical storage systems

A computer model has been developed that simulates light propagating through an optical data storage system. A model of a laser beam that originates at a laser diode, propagates through an optical system, interacts with a optical disk, reflects back from the optical disk into the system, and propagates to data and servo detectors is discussed.

Treptau, J. P.↗