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Introduction to the physics and techniques of remote sensing

This book presents a comprehensive overview of the basics behind remote-sensing physics, techniques, and technology. The physics of wave/matter interactions, techniques of remote sensing across the electromagnetic spectrum, and the concepts behind remote sensing techniques now established and future ones under development are discussed. Applications of remote sensing are described for a wide variety of earth and planetary atmosphere and surface sciences. Solid surface sensing across the electromagnetic spectrum, ocean surface sensing, basic principles of atmospheric sensing and radiative transfer, and atmospheric remote sensing in the microwave, millimeter, submillimeter, and infrared regions are examined.

Elachi, Charles↗

The Modulation of Gulf Stream Influence on the Troposphere by the Eddy-Driven Jet

This study suggests that the Gulf Stream influence on the wintertime North Atlantic troposphere is most pronounced when the eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is farthest south and better collocated with the Gulf Stream. Using the reanalysis dataset NCEP-CFSR for December–February 1979–2009, the daily EDJ latitude is separated into three regimes (northern, central, and southern). It is found that the average trajectory of atmospheric fronts covaries with EDJ latitude. In the southern EDJ regime (~19% of the time), the frequency of near-surface atmospheric fronts that pass across the Gulf Stream is maximized. Analysis suggests that this leads to significant strengthening in near-surface atmospheric frontal convergence resulting from strong air–sea sensible heat flux gradients (due to strong temperature gradients in the atmosphere and ocean). In recent studies, it was shown that the pronounced band of time-mean near-surface wind convergence across the Gulf Stream is set by atmospheric fronts. Here, it is shown that an even smaller subset of atmospheric fronts—those associated with a southern EDJ—primarily sets the time mean, due to enhanced Gulf Stream air–sea interaction. Furthermore, statistically significant anomalies in vertical velocity extending well above the boundary layer are identified in association with changes in EDJ latitude. These anomalies are particularly strong for a southern EDJ and are spatially consistent with increases in near-surface atmospheric frontal convergence over the Gulf Stream. These results imply that much of the Gulf Stream influence on the time-mean atmosphere is modulated on synoptic time scales, and enhanced when the EDJ is farthest south.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flux Seasonality Metrics Database: A companion dataset for FLUXNET annual product

This dataset include standardized phenological transition dates, and derived season lengths of active, dormant and transition seasons of ecosystem carbon and energy fluxes, as reported in FLUXNET. Such metrics are unique in that they characterize the seasonal dynamics of these fluxes in their own terms rather than in reference to traditional phenology indicators that mostly relate to vegetation structural characteristics. The Flux Seasonality Metrics Database (FSMD) generated 17 standardized seasonality metrics for 4 different fluxes including gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), latent heat (LE) and sensible heat (H) reported in FLUXNET2015 Dataset for about 200 sites and 1500 site-years of data globally. Each metric is reported as an estimate and a confidence interval, which is a function of data coverage and flux variability. We anticipate that the FSMD will facilitate new model validation exercises, and stimulate new research in global change and Earth science disciplines where land-atmosphere exchange dynamics play a central role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mission analysis for coincident measurements of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite and Space Shuttle experiments

The launch and orbital characteristics of Space Shuttle missions which will maximize the coincident measurement opportunities between the Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS) and the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) experiments are presented. Updated UARS orbit conditions are used and several ATLAS orbit constraints are incorporated, and the study is expanded to include other classes of instruments on the two satellites. The effects of launch time, altitude, and orbit inclination on the number and latitudinal distribution of coincident measurement opportunities for the UARS and Shuttle experiments are investigated. Large numbers of coincident measurements are possible for UARS and ATLAS limb-viewing experiments, but their distribution is greatly dependent on the inclination of the satellites and initial equatorial crossing times. Results indicate that a great number of coincident measurements may be obtained between limb-scanning devices (300-400) and that observation of the extreme latitudes (70-80 degrees) is obtained with an ATLAS inclination of 57 degrees.

Harrison, Edwin F.↗

Status of Aqua MODIS Instrument On-Orbit Operation and Calibration

The Aqua MOderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has successfully operated for nearly a decade, since its launch in May 2002. MODIS was developed and designed with improvements over its heritage sensors in terms of its overall spectral, spatial, and temporal characteristics, and with more stringent calibration requirements. MODIS carries a set of on-board calibrators that can be used to track and monitor its on-orbit radiometric, spectral, and spatial performance. Since launch, extensive instrument calibration and characterization activities have been scheduled and executed by the MODIS Characterization Support Team (MCST). These efforts are made to assure the quality of instrument calibration and L 1B data products, as well as support all science disciplines (land, ocean, and atmospheric) for continuous improvements of science data product quality. MODIS observations from both Terra and Aqua have significantly contributed to the science and user community over a wide range of research activities and applications. This paper provides an overview of Aqua MODIS on-orbit operation and calibration activities, instrument health status, and on-board calibrators (OBC) performance. On-orbit changes of key sensor parameters, such as spectral band radiometric responses, center wavelengths, and bandwidth, are illustrated and compared with those derived from its predecessor, Terra MODIS. Lessons and challenges identified from Aqua MODIS performance are also discussed in this paper. These lessons are not only critical to future improvements of Aqua MODIS on-orbit operation and calibration but also beneficial to its follow-on instrument, the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched on NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) spacecraft.

Xiong, Jack↗

The Doppler Wind Temperature Sensor (DWTS) Flight Evaluation and Experiments (TES-16,17)

The Doppler Wind Temperature Sensor instrument (DWTS), developed by Global Atmospheric Technologies and Sciences (GATS), is a powerful yet simple tool with the potential of becoming a new window to upper atmosphere dynamics. Based around a defense-grade infrared camera peering through a static gas cell used as a scanning spectral filter, the DWTS is designed to measure the fingerprints of wind and thermal waves as they propagate to the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. DWTS achieves this scanning by measuring the induced change in the doppler shift of the emission as it passes through the DWTS field of view. DWTS holds promise to aid in more accurate weather determination (Gordley, et al), and the core technology can be easily adapted to study other atmospheres of interest. In partnership with GATS, NOAA, and other collaborators, NASA Ames and the Nano Orbital Workshop group have been working to evaluate the DWTS instrument on orbit and optimize it as a flexible cube satellite payload. The first mission selected for DWTS evaluation is preparing for flight in early 2024, followed by a more capable science mission in 2025, with both missions part of the TES-n/NOW flight series. The first flight, TES-16/DWTS-A, will incorporate a single DWTS instrument in an approximately 2U payload volume with the imaging aperture perpendicular to the flight velocity vector. With an estimated power consumption of 20 watts, supplied via a custom NOW-designed GaN converter, the instrument will maintain the imaging sensor plane at 80K using an integrated pulse-tube cryocooler during instrument evaluation periods. Data from DWTS will be captured via a NOW-designed custom data processor before being transmitted via S-band radio back to select ground stations, with instrument command and control operated via L-band global-coverage radio. After the TES-16/DWTS-A initial demonstration mission, the subsequent TES-17/DWTS-B mission will be a dedicated science mission equipped with three DWTS instruments, each hosting a different gas cell to obtain full altitude coverage from 20 to 200 km both day and night from a single cube satellite. The intention of the flight series, and one of NASA’s interests in the instrument, is to advance a Martian atmospheric instrument (Colaprete, Gordley, et al) which, if successful, would greatly further understanding of Martian atmospheric behavior. The proposed paper will review the flight series in detail, including challenges from the TES-16 flight tests and the projected challenges and application to Mars study. Additional detail regarding the possible applications of a Cognitive Communication technique in current flight development by NOW collaborators at the NASA Glenn Research Center will also be discussed, including the implications of using an automated User Initiated Service (UIS) protocol to maximize the data collected per orbit.

Doppler Wind Temperature Sensor↗

Anthropogenic Impacts on Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide Since the 19th Century Inferred From Polar Firn Air and Ice Core Measurements

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) was measured in firn air collected during seven different field campaigns carried out at four different sites in Greenland and Antarctica between 2001 and 2015. A Bayesian probabilistic statistical model is used to conduct multisite inversions and to reconstruct separate atmospheric histories for Greenland and Antarctica. The firn air inversions cover most of the 20th century over Greenland and extend back to the 19th century over Antarctica. The derived atmospheric histories are consistent with independent surface air time series data from the corresponding sites and the Antarctic ice core COS records during periods of overlap. Atmospheric COS levels began to increase over preindustrial levels starting in the 19th century, and the increase continued for much of the 20th century. Atmospheric COS peaked at higher than present-day levels around 1975 CE over Greenland and around 1987 CE over Antarctica. An atmosphere/surface ocean box model is used to investigate the possible causes of observed variability. The results suggest that changes in the magnitude and location of anthropogenic sources have had a strong influence on the observed atmospheric COS variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Emissivity Retrieved with Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements for Monitoring Global Change

Surface and atmospheric thermodynamic parameters retrieved with advanced ultraspectral remote sensors aboard Earth observing satellites are critical to general atmospheric and Earth science research, climate monitoring, and weather prediction. Ultraspectral resolution infrared radiance obtained from nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud information. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity retrieved from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements under "clear-sky" conditions. Fast radiative transfer models, applied to the cloud-free (or clouded) atmosphere, are used for atmospheric profile and surface parameter (or cloud parameter) retrieval. The inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface (or cloud microphysical) parameters. Rapidly produced surface emissivity is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted atmospheric and surface parameters. Surface emissivity and surface skin temperature from the current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information on the Earth s ecosystem and land surface type properties, which can be utilized as part of long-term monitoring for the Earth s environment and global climate change.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

The Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP): Continuing NASA Research and Applications

The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite was successfully launched into a polar orbit on October 28, 2011 carrying 5 remote sensing instruments designed to provide data to improve weather forecasts and to increase understanding of long-term climate change. SNPP provides operational continuity of satellite-based observations for NOAA's Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and continues the long-term record of climate quality observations established by NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. In the 2003 to 2011 pre-launch timeframe, NASA's SNPP Science Team assessed the adequacy of the operational Raw Data Records (RDRs), Sensor Data Records (SDRs), and Environmental Data Records (EDRs) from the SNPP instruments for use in NASA Earth Science research, examined the operational algorithms used to produce those data records, and proposed a path forward for the production of climate quality products from SNPP. In order to perform these tasks, a distributed data system, the NASA Science Data Segment (SDS), ingested RDRs, SDRs, and EDRs from the NOAA Archive and Distribution and Interface Data Processing Segments, ADS and IDPS, respectively. The SDS also obtained operational algorithms for evaluation purposes from the NOAA Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Testing and Evaluation (GRAVITE). Within the NASA SDS, five Product Evaluation and Test Elements (PEATEs) received, ingested, and stored data and performed NASA's data processing, evaluation, and analysis activities. The distributed nature of this data distribution system was established by physically housing each PEATE within one of five Climate Analysis Research Systems (CARS) located at either at a NASA or a university institution. The CARS were organized around 5 key EDRs directly in support of the following NASA Earth Science focus areas: atmospheric sounding, ocean, land, ozone, and atmospheric composition products. The PEATES provided the system level interface with members of the NASA SNPP Science Team and other science investigators within each CARS. A sixth Earth Radiation Budget CARS was established at NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC) to support instrument performance, data evaluation, and analysis for the SNPP Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Budget Energy System (CERES) instrument. Following the 2011 launch of SNPP, spacecraft commissioning, and instrument activation, the NASA SNPP Science Team evaluated the operational RDRs, SDRs, and EDRs produced by the NOAA ADS and IDPS. A key part in that evaluation was the NASA Science Team's independent processing of operational RDRs and SDRs to EDRs using the latest NASA science algorithms. The NASA science evaluation was completed in the December 2012 to April 2014 timeframe with the release of a series of NASA Science Team Discipline Reports. In summary, these reports indicated that the RDRs produced by the SNPP instruments were of sufficiently high quality to be used to create data products suitable for NASA Earth System science and applications. However, the quality of the SDRs and EDRs were found to vary greatly when considering suitability for NASA science. The need for improvements in operational algorithms, adoption of different algorithmic approaches, greater monitoring of on-orbit instrument calibration, greater attention to data product validation, and data reprocessing were prominent findings in the reports. In response to these findings, NASA, in late 2013, directed the NASA SNPP Science Team to use SNPP instrument data to develop data products of sufficiently high quality to enable the continuation of EOS time series data records and to develop innovative, practical applications of SNPP data. This direction necessitated a transition of the SDS data system from its pre-launch assessment mode to one of full data processing and production. To do this, the PEATES, which served as NASA's data product testing environment during the prelaunch and early on-orbit periods, were transitioned to Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). The distributed data architecture was maintained in this new system by locating the SIPS at the same institutions at which the CARS and PEATES were located. The SIPS acquire raw SNPP instrument Level 0 (i.e. RDR) data over the full SNPP mission from the NOAA ADS and IDPS through the NASA SDS Data Distribution and Depository Element (SD3E). The SIPS process those data into NASA Level 1, Level 2, and global, gridded Level 3 standard products using peer-reviewed algorithms provided by members of the NASA Science Team. The SIPS work with the NASA SNPP Science Team in obtaining enhanced, refined, or alternate real-time algorithms to support the capabilities of the Direct Readout Laboratory (DRL). All data products, algorithm source codes, coefficients, and auxiliary data used in product generation are archived in an assigned NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

remote sensing↗

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Based on Combined A-Train Observations: Towards All-sky Estimates and Attribution to Aerosol Type

We describe a technique for combining CALIOP aerosol backscatter, MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), and OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) measurements for the purpose of estimating full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately for calculating the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative forcing. We present results using one year of data collected in 2007 and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Initial calculations of seasonal clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing based on our multi-sensor aerosol retrievals compare well with over-ocean and top of the atmosphere IPCC-2007 model-based results, and with more recent assessments in the "Climate Change Science Program Report: Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts" (2009). We discuss some of the challenges that exist in extending our clear-sky results to all-sky conditions. On the basis of comparisons to suborbital measurements, we present some of the limitations of the MODIS and CALIOP retrievals in the presence of adjacent or underlying clouds. Strategies for meeting these challenges are discussed. We also discuss a methodology for using the multi-sensor aerosol retrievals for aerosol type classification based on advanced clustering techniques. The combination of research results permits conclusions regarding the attribution of aerosol radiative forcing to aerosol type.

AOD↗

A Model for Turbulence Spectra in the Equilibrium Range of the Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Stratification can cause turbulence spectra to deviate from Kolmogorov's isotropic -5/3 power law scaling in the universal equilibrium range at high Reynolds numbers. However, a consensus has not been reached with regard to the exact shape of the spectra. Here we propose a shape of the turbulent kinetic energy and temperature spectra in horizontal wavenumber for the equilibrium range that consists of three regimes at small Froude number: the buoyancy subrange, a transition region, and the isotropic inertial subrange through dimensional analysis and substantial revision of previous theoretical approximation. These spectral regimes are confirmed by various observations in the atmospheric boundary layer. The representation of the transition region in direct numerical simulations will require large-scale separation between the Dougherty-Ozmidov scale and the Kolmogorov scale for strongly stratified turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, which is still challenging computationally. In addition, we suggest that the failure of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in the very stable atmospheric boundary layer is due to the fact that it does not consider the buoyancy scale that characterizes the transition region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS High-Frequency Measurements of CO₂, H₂O, Wind, and Temperature at University of Illinois Chicago

As of April 9, 2026: this dataset is currently being versioned to include data up to March 31, 2026. Once the versioning process is complete, new data files will be available for access. The dataset metadata will also be updated to reflect the data availability of the new data being versioned. Raw atmospheric measurements collected at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) as part of the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. The data includes high-frequency measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, water vapor (H₂O) concentration, wind speed (U, V, W components), temperature, and atmospheric pressure. These raw data are recorded by the LI-7500DS Open Path CO₂/H₂O Analyzer and a sonic anemometer at a 10 Hz acquisition frequency, providing the necessary inputs for calculating fluxes of CO₂, H₂O, heat, and momentum. In addition to gas concentration measurements, the dataset includes diagnostic information from the instruments, including absorptance, sample and reference signals, and diagnostic values. The data were collected to study urban atmospheric conditions and contribute to flux calculations for urban climate research. These measurements form the basis for calculating 30-minute average fluxes of key atmospheric variables using the eddy covariance method. This dataset provides critical raw input data for researchers interested in atmospheric fluxes, urban air quality, and the interaction between the urban environment and atmospheric processes. The data is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program, under the CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Annual program analysis of the NASA Space Life Sciences Research and Education Support Program

The basic objectives of this contract are to stimulate, encourage, and assist research and education in NASA life sciences. Scientists and experts from a number of academic and research institutions in this country and abroad are recruited to support NASA's need to find a solution to human physiological problems associated with living and working in space and on extraterrestrial bodies in the solar system. To fulfill the contract objectives, a cadre of staff and visiting scientists, consultants, experts, and subcontractors has been assembled into a unique organization dedicated to the space life sciences. This organization, USRA's Division of Space Life Sciences, provides an academic atmosphere, provides an organizational focal point for science and educational activities, and serves as a forum for the participation of eminent scientists in the biomedical programs of NASA. The purpose of this report is to demonstrate adherence to the requirement of Contract NAS9-18440 for a written review and analysis of the productivity and success of the program. In addition, this report makes recommendations for future activities and conditions to further enhance the objectives of the program and provides a self-assessment of the cost performance of the contract.

Source record↗

The Doppler Wind and Temperature Sounder (DWTS) Flight Evaluation and Experiments (TES-16,17)

The Doppler Wind and Temperature Sounder instrument (DWTS) developed by Global Atmospheric Technologies and Sciences (GATS) is a simple yet powerful tool with the potential to become a new window through which the study of upper atmosphere dynamics can occur. Based around a defense-grade infrared camera peering through a static gas cell used as a scanning spectral filter, a DWTS instrument can infer wind velocities and kinetic temperatures throughout the stratosphere and lower thermosphere. The DWTS achieves this scanning by measuring the induced Doppler shift and Doppler broadening of emissions as they pass through the DWTS field of view (Gordley, Marshall, 2011). The DWTS holds promise in improving accuracy in weather determination among other terrestrial benefits, and the core technology can be easily adapted to study the dynamics of other planetary atmospheres. In partnership with GATS, NOAA, and other collaborators, NASA Ames and the Nano-Orbital Workshop (NOW) group have been working to evaluate the DWTS instrument on orbit and optimize it as a flexible payload for nanosatellites. The first mission selected for DWTS technical evaluation is preparing for flight in early 2024, which will be followed by a more capable science mission in 2025, with both missions being part of the TES-n/NOW heritage flight series. The first rapid technology demonstration flight, TES-16/DWTS-A, will demonstrate a single DWTS instrument in an approximately 2U payload volume. With an estimated power consumption of 50 watts, the instrument will maintain the imaging sensor plane at 80K during instrument performance evaluation periods using an integrated Stirling cryocooler. Data from DWTS will be captured and processed via a NOW-designed custom data interface unit before being transmitted via S-band radio back to select ground stations, with instrument command and control maintained via L-band global-coverage radio. The subsequent TES-17/DWTS-B mission will be a dedicated science mission tasked with validating the instrument’s full altitude coverage capabilities, currently estimated from 20 to 200 km during both day and night. This new atmospheric observational capability will come from a single small satellite equipped with three DWTS imagers, each hosting a different gas cell chemistry, to form a complete instrument. The intention of this flight series, and one of NASA’s interests in this instrument, is not only to advance Earth atmospheric dynamics, but to advance a Martian atmospheric study instrument as well (Colaprete, Gordley, et al) which, if successful, would greatly further understanding of Martian atmospheric dynamics. This document describes the flight series in detail, including challenges facing the TES-16 flight tests and the projected challenges and application of Mars study. Additional detail regarding the possible applications of a Cognitive Communication technique in current flight development by NOW collaborators at the NASA Glenn Research Center is also discussed, including the implications of using an automated User Initiated Service (UIS) protocol to maximize the data collected per orbit.

DWTS Nano-satellite TES-n↗

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What Drives Upper-Ocean Temperature Variability in Coupled Climate Models and Observations?

Abstract A key question in climate modeling is to what extent sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content are driven passively by air–sea heat fluxes, as opposed to forcing by ocean dynamics. This paper investigates the question using a climate model at different resolutions, and observations, for monthly variability. At the grid scale in a high-resolution climate model with resolved mesoscale ocean eddies, ocean dynamics (i.e., ocean heat flux convergence) dominates upper 50 m heat content variability over most of the globe. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the heat content variability at the grid scale is almost totally controlled by ocean heat flux convergence. However, a strong dependence on spatial scale is found—for the upper 50 m of ocean, after smoothing the data to around 7°, air–sea heat fluxes, augmented by Ekman heat transports, dominate. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the transition scale becomes larger and is above 10° in western boundary currents. Comparison of climate model results with observations show that the small-scale influence of ocean intrinsic variability is well captured by the high-resolution model but is missing from a comparable model with parameterized ocean-eddy effects. In the deep tropics, ocean dynamics dominates in all cases and all scales. In the subtropical gyres at large scales, air–sea heat fluxes play the biggest role. In the midlatitudes, at large scales >10°, atmosphere-driven air–sea heat fluxes and Ekman heat transport variability are the dominant processes except in the western boundary currents for the 400 m heat content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend

Abstract Although numerous studies have projected changes in freezing rain under future climate conditions, the internal variability of freezing rain remains poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a framework utilizing a novel machine‐learning algorithm to diagnose freezing rain in reanalysis and climate model simulations. By employing multivariate quantile mapping, we decompose the projected freezing rain trend into contributions from changes in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, which helps separate the forced response from internal climate variability. Our finding reveals a notable decrease in freezing rain occurrence in most areas. Despite a substantial temperature increase, internal variability overshadows climate forcing across a large portion of the eastern United States until about 2050. This insight has implications for practitioners, suggesting that the observed freezing rain frequency climatology continues to provide a relevant baseline for decision‐making in the near term. However, longer‐term design and adaptation plans should consider the projected changes in these regions.

Zhuang, Haoyu (Richard) [Department of Atmospheric↗