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The feasibility of extended and long-range weather prediction by means of global atmospheric models was studied. A number of computer experiments were conducted at GISS with the GISS global general circulation model. Topics discussed include atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature anomalies, and monthly mean forecast experiments with the global model.
Here, the global atmospheric models based on the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) are able to explicitly resolve subgrid-scale processes by using embedded 2-D Cloud-Resolving Models (CRMs). Up to now, however, those models do not include the orographic effects on the CRM grid scale. This study shows that the effects of CRM grid-scale orography can be simulated reasonably well by the Quasi-3-D MMF (Q3D MMF), which has been developed as a second-generation MMF. In the Q3D framework, the surface topography can be included in the CRM component by using a block representation of the mountains, so that no smoothing of the topographic height is necessary. To demonstrate the performance of such a model, the orographic effects over a steep mountain are simulated in an idealized experimental setup with each of the Q3D MMF and the full 3-D CRM. The latter is used as a benchmark. Comparison of the results shows that the Q3D MMF is able to reproduce the horizontal distribution of orographic precipitation and the flow changes around mountains as simulated by the 3-D CRM, even though the embedded CRMs of the Q3D MMF recognize only some aspects of the complex 3-D topography. It is also shown that the use of 3-D CRMs in the Q3D framework, rather than 2-D CRMs, has positive impacts on the simulation of wind fields but does not substantially change the simulated precipitation.
Abstract Statistical analyses of a large disdrometer data set and a diverse set of model simulations for convection using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were conducted, with the mutual goal of providing insights into precipitation formation and microphysical processes. We demonstrate that a two‐moment bulk microphysical model successfully captures the dominant observed modes of variability in rainfall related to rainfall intensity and raindrop size distributions. The model reproduced the general distribution of observed precipitation groups (PGs) derived from Principal Component Analysis. The multi‐variable analysis also uncovered some shortcomings in the model as well as limitations of the disdrometer data. The model solutions were constrained in their predicted drop size distributions (DSDs) due to the fixed DSD parameters assumed in a two‐moment microphysics scheme. A case study from the Mid‐latitude Continental Clouds and Convection Experiment field project demonstrated how model results can be used to contextualize the disdrometer observations which are limited in sample size, spatial coherence, and detection of small drops and low drop concentrations. The case study also showed that the spatial patterns of the statistically derived PGs revealed by the model are consistent with the hypothesized microphysical processes that determine surface rain DSDs. This work demonstrates how leveraging the strengths of observations and models together can improve our understanding and representation of rain microphysical processes.
WASP-19b is one of the most irradiated hot-Jupiters known. Its secondary eclipse is the deepest of all transiting planets and has been measured in multiple optical and infrared bands. We obtained a z-band eclipse observation with a measured depth of 0.080% {+-} 0.029%, using the 2 m Faulkes Telescope South, which is consistent with the results of previous observations. We combined our measurement of the z-band eclipse with previous observations to explore atmosphere models of WASP-19b that are consistent with its broadband spectrum. We use the VSTAR radiative transfer code to examine the effect of varying pressure-temperature profiles and C/O abundance ratios on the emission spectrum of the planet. We find that models with super-solar carbon enrichment best match the observations, which is consistent with previous model retrieval studies. We also include upper atmosphere haze as another dimension in the interpretation of exoplanet emission spectra and find that particles <0.5 {mu}m in size are unlikely to be present in WASP-19b.
Super-Earth exoplanets are being discovered with increasing frequency and some will be able to retain stable H{sub 2}-dominated atmospheres. We study biosignature gases on exoplanets with thin H{sub 2} atmospheres and habitable surface temperatures, using a model atmosphere with photochemistry and a biomass estimate framework for evaluating the plausibility of a range of biosignature gas candidates. We find that photochemically produced H atoms are the most abundant reactive species in H{sub 2} atmospheres. In atmospheres with high CO{sub 2} levels, atomic O is the major destructive species for some molecules. In Sun-Earth-like UV radiation environments, H (and in some cases O) will rapidly destroy nearly all biosignature gases of interest. The lower UV fluxes from UV-quiet M stars would produce a lower concentration of H (or O) for the same scenario, enabling some biosignature gases to accumulate. The favorability of low-UV radiation environments to accumulate detectable biosignature gases in an H{sub 2} atmosphere is closely analogous to the case of oxidized atmospheres, where photochemically produced OH is the major destructive species. Most potential biosignature gases, such as dimethylsulfide and CH{sub 3}Cl, are therefore more favorable in low-UV, as compared with solar-like UV, environments. A few promising biosignature gas candidates, including NH{sub 3} and N{sub 2}O, are favorable even in solar-like UV environments, as these gases are destroyed directly by photolysis and not by H (or O). A more subtle finding is that most gases produced by life that are fully hydrogenated forms of an element, such as CH{sub 4} and H{sub 2}S, are not effective signs of life in an H{sub 2}-rich atmosphere because the dominant atmospheric chemistry will generate such gases abiologically, through photochemistry or geochemistry. Suitable biosignature gases in H{sub 2}-rich atmospheres for super-Earth exoplanets transiting M stars could potentially be detected in transmission spectra with the James Webb Space Telescope.
Future climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are introduced for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. These findings are compared to the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and include simulations using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CESM1(CAM5) is 4.10°C, which is higher than the CCSM4 value of 3.20°C. The transient climate response is 2.33°C, compared to the CCSM4 value of 1.73°C. Thus, even though CESM1(CAM5) includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols (CCSM4 had only the direct effect), the overall climate system response including forcing and feedbacks is greater in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4. The Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CESM1(CAM5) weakens considerably in the twenty-first century in all the RCP scenarios, and recovers more slowly in the lower forcing scenarios. The total aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes from ~0.12 in 2006 to ~0.10 in 2100, compared to a preindustrial 1850 value of 0.08, so there is less negative forcing (a net positive forcing) from that source during the twenty-first century. As a result, the change from 2006 to 2100 in aerosol direct forcing in CESM1(CAM5) contributes to greater twenty-first century warming relative to CCSM4. There is greater Arctic warming and sea ice loss in CESM1(CAM5), with an ice-free summer Arctic occurring by about 2060 in RCP8.5 (2040s in September) as opposed to about 2100 in CCSM4 (2060s in September).
This study quantifies the potential impacts of wildfires on the California grid, specifically the impacts under three different wildfire scenarios: a "no wildfire" scenario and two wildfire-specific scenarios, "2020 wildfire" and "enhanced wildfire" (with both wildfire scenarios assuming spatial distribution of the wildfire location the same as the 2020 fires). The study combines each scenario with two solar energy infrastructures: one corresponding to the current solar installation and the other to future (midcentury) solar installation. The analysis is conducted using state-of-the-science modeling tools: primarily WRF-Chem for atmospheric modeling with chemistry to account for impacts of wildfires on solar radiation and PLEXOS for electricity market simulations. The analysis suggests that wildfires can significantly attenuate solar radiation at both short downwind distances as well as far from the emissions sources. Although the study is limited in scope, and the analysis studies only a few of the many factors that can affect photovoltaic generation and electricity markets, it indicates that wildfire smoke is an important factor that needs to be carefully considered and analyzed in planning the future grid.
Atmospheric studies of spectroscopically accessible terrestrial exoplanets lay the groundwork for comparative planetology between these worlds and the solar system terrestrial planets. LHS 3844b is a highly irradiated terrestrial exoplanet (R = 1.303 ± 0.022R {sub ⊕}) orbiting a mid-M dwarf 15 parsecs away. Work based on near-infrared Spitzer phase curves ruled out atmospheres with surface pressures ≥10 bars on this planet. We present 13 transit observations of LHS 3844b taken with the Magellan Clay telescope and the LDSS3C multi-object spectrograph covering 620–1020 nm. We analyze each of the 13 data sets individually using a Gaussian process regression, and present both white and spectroscopic light curves. In the combined white light curve we achieve an rms precision of 65 ppm when binning to 10 minutes. The mean white light-curve value of (R {sub p}/R {sub s}){sup 2} is 0.4170 ± 0.0046%. To construct the transmission spectrum, we split the white light curves into 20 spectrophotometric bands, each spanning 20 nm, and compute the mean values of (R {sub p}/R {sub s}){sup 2} in each band. We compare the transmission spectrum to two sets of atmospheric models. We disfavor a clear, solar composition atmosphere (μ = 2.34) with surface pressures ≥0.1 bar to 5.2σ confidence. We disfavor a clear, H{sub 2}O steam atmosphere (μ = 18) with surface pressures ≥0.1 bar to low confidence (2.9σ). Our observed transmission spectrum favors a flat line. For solar composition atmospheres with surface pressures ≥1 bar we rule out clouds with cloud-top pressures of 0.1 bar (5.3σ), but we cannot address high-altitude clouds at lower pressures. Our results add further evidence that LHS 3844b is devoid of an atmosphere.
Realistic stellar atmospheric models of two typical metal-poor giant stars in Omega Centauri, which include a chromosphere (CHR), influence the formation of optical lines of O i: the forbidden lines (λ6300, λ6363) and the infrared triplet (λλ7771−7775). One-dimensional semi-empirical non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) models are constructed based on observed Balmer lines. A full non-LTE formulation is applied for evaluating the line strengths of O i, including photoionization by the Lyman continuum and photoexcitation by Lyα and Lyβ. Chromospheric models (CHR) yield forbidden oxygen transitions that are stronger than those in radiative/convective equilibrium (RCE) models. The triplet oxygen lines from high levels also appear stronger than those produced in an RCE model. The inferred oxygen abundance from realistic CHR models for these two stars is decreased by factors of ∼3 as compared to values derived from RCE models. A lower oxygen abundance suggests that intermediate-mass AGB stars contribute to the observed abundance pattern in globular clusters. A change in the oxygen abundance of metal-poor field giants could affect models of deep mixing episodes on the red giant branch. Changes in the oxygen abundance can impact other abundance determinations that are critical to astrophysics, including chemical tagging techniques and galactic chemical evolution.
Pushing global climate models to large-eddy simulation (LES) scales over complex terrain has remained a major challenge. This study presents the first known implementation of a global model – SCREAM (Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model) – at 100 m horizontal resolution using a regionally refined mesh (RRM) over the San Francisco Bay Area. Two hindcast simulations were conducted to test performance under both strong synoptic forcing and weak, boundary-layer-driven conditions. We demonstrate that SCREAM can stably run at LES scales while realistically capturing topography, surface heterogeneity, and coastal processes. The 100 m SCREAM-RRM substantially improves near-surface wind speed, temperature, humidity, and pressure biases compared to the baseline 3.25 km simulation, and better reproduces fine-scale wind oscillations and boundary-layer structures. These advances leverage SCREAM's scale-aware SHOC turbulence parameterization, which transitions smoothly across scales without tuning. Performance tests show that while CPU-only simulations remain costly, GPU acceleration with SCREAMv1 on NERSC's Perlmutter system enables two-day hindcasts to complete in under two wall-clock days. Our results open the door to LES-scale studies of orographic flows, boundary-layer turbulence, and coastal clouds within a fully comprehensive global modeling framework.
Sigma Orionis E hydrogen-deficient atmosphere, using grid of constant-flux model atmospheres to determine abundances of five elements
Atmospheric model with damped gravity waves from vertical atmospheric sounding analyses
The observed quiet-sun profiles for a number of Mg I and II lines are compared with theoretical spectra computed for two upper-photosphere lower-chromosphere models published by Ayres and Linsky (1976). Both the Mg I and the Mg II resonance line wings, observed with the University of Hawaii Echelle Rocket Spectrographs, favor a model with a higher temperature in the upper photosphere than required to match the visible region lines 4571 and 5172. Neither model atmosphere reproduces the observed shapes in the cores of the strong lines or the limb darkening of the 4571 A intercombination line. The wings of the ultraviolet lines in plages can be reproduced either with a mean one-component atmosphere or by a two-component model with an ad hoc filling factor.
A three dimensional atmospheric model was used to study transport processes and to simulate the distribution of chemically active species in the stratosphere. The present results are part of a long term simulation of the seasonally varying structure of stratospheric trace constituents. The occurrence of a midwinter stratospheric warming and the associated transport of O3 and HNO3 during the simulation are described. Comparison of the simulated distributions of O3 and HNO3 are made with data from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment. In addition, distributions of Ertel's potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces (IPV) are evaluated as a diagnostic for interpreting transport processes. Comparisons are made with IPV distributions inferred from LIMS temperature data.
A pulsed laser photolysis-pulsed laser-induced fluorescence technique is used to directly measure the temperature, pressure, and H2O concentration dependence on k1 in air. K1 is found to increase linearly with increasing pressure at pressures of not greater than 1 atm, and the pressure dependence of k1 at 299 K is the same in N2 buffer gas as in O2 buffer gas. The rate constant in the low-pressure limit and the slope of the k1 versus pressure dependence are shown to be the same at 262 K as at 299 K. The present results significantly reduce the current atmospheric model uncertainties in the temperature dependence under atmospheric conditions, in the third body efficiency of O2, and in the effect of water vapor on k1.
In theory, a thermal emission spectrum of Mars (220-1600 cm(exp -1)) contains a wealth of information about the composition and thermal structure of the atmosphere and surface. However, in practice, the ability to retrieve quantitative information from the spectrum is limited by a number of factors including (1) the ill-posed nature of the spectral inversion problem and the resulting nonuniqueness of all solutions; (2) assumptions built into any spectral inversion program; (3) uncertainties in surface pressure, temperature, and emissivity; and (4) uncertainties in the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols. Below, factors (1) and (2) are discussed as fundamental limitations on temperature retrievals from Mariner 9 Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) spectra. In preparation for the Mars Observer mission and the return of tens of thousands of infrared spectra per day from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), we have developed a fast inversion algorithm to retrieve temperature structure and aerosol opacity from the infrared spectra. The derived atmospheric models will be used to provide the atmospheric contribution to the TES spectra, so that the thermal emission spectra of the underlying surface can be determined for making mineralogical identifications. As a test of our algorithm, we are undertaking a systematic analysis of the entire Mariner 9 Infrared Interferometric Spectrometer (IRIS) dataset of 21,000 plus spectra. While portions of the IRIS dataset have been previously analyzed, the lack of a speedy and robust algorithm to invert the IRIS spectra to retrieve temperature profiles and aerosol opacities has been a major impediment to a truly comprehensive analysis.
Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.
The In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Project, funded by NASA s Science Mission Directorate (SMD), is continuing to invest in propulsion technologies that will enable or enhance NASA robotic science missions. This overview provides development status, near-term mission benefits, applicability, and availability of in-space propulsion technologies in the areas of aerocapture, electric propulsion, advanced chemical thrusters, and systems analysis tools. Aerocapture investments improved: guidance, navigation, and control models of blunt-body rigid aeroshells; atmospheric models for Earth, Titan, Mars, and Venus; and models for aerothermal effects. Investments in electric propulsion technologies focused on completing NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) ion propulsion system, a 0.6 to 7 kW throttle-able gridded ion system. The project is also concluding its High Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAC) mid-term product specifically designed for a low-cost electric propulsion option. The primary chemical propulsion investment is on the high-temperature Advanced Material Bipropellant Rocket (AMBR) engine providing higher performance for lower cost. The project is also delivering products to assist technology infusion and quantify mission applicability and benefits through mission analysis and tools. In-space propulsion technologies are applicable, and potentially enabling for flagship destinations currently under evaluation, as well as having broad applicability to future Discovery and New Frontiers mission solicitations.