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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT) Mission Concept: Continuous Distributed Observations of Geo-Effective, Heliospheric Structures from the Vantage Points of Sun-Earth L1 and Sub- L1

Continuous, in-situ, multi-point observations along the Sun-Earth line at and inside the Lagrange point L1 (sub-L1) will enable a better understanding of the three-dimensional structure and temporal evolution of heliospheric structures that drive terrestrial space weather. The proposed SWIFT (Space Weather Investigation Frontier) mission will use a new solar sail propulsion system developed by NASA to enable a suite of science instruments onboard a smallsat to maintain observations along the Sun-Earth line, sub-L1, for extended periods. Three identically instrumented small spacecraft at L1 will fly in concert with the sailcraft at sub-L1 in an optimized tetrahedron constellation, covering distances between 10 to 100’s of Earth radii. This viewing geometry will enable scientists to distinguish between local and global processes driving space weather by revealing the spatial characteristics, temporal evolution, and geo-effectiveness of small- to meso-scale solar wind structures and substructures of macro-scale structures, such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and stream interaction regions (SIRs). In addition, real time measurements of earth-bound heliospheric structures from sub-L1 will improve our current forecasting lead-times by up to 35 percent. This paper will provide an overview of the proposed SWIFT science and mission concept.

Spacecraft Propulsion↗

Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT)

Continuous, in-situ, multi-point observations along the Sun-Earth line at and inside the Lagrange point L1 (sub-L1) will enable a better understanding of the three-dimensional structure and temporal evolution of heliospheric structures that drive terrestrial space weather. The proposed SWIFT (Space Weather Investigation Frontier) mission will use a new solar sail propulsion system developed by NASA to enable a suite of science instruments onboard a smallsat to maintain observations along the Sun-Earth line, sub-L1, for extended periods. Three identically instrumented small spacecraft at L1 will fly in concert with the sailcraft at sub-L1in an optimized tetrahedron constellation, covering distances between 10 to 100’s of Earth radii. This viewing geometry will enable scientists to distinguish between local and global processes driving space weather by revealing the spatial characteristics, temporal evolution, and geo-effectiveness of small-to meso-scale solar wind structures and substructures of macro-scale structures, such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and stream interaction regions (SIRs). In addition, real time measurements of earth-bound heliospheric structures from sub-L1 will improve our current forecasting lead-times by up to 35 percent. This paper will provide an overview of the proposed SWIFT science and mission concept.

Heliophysics↗

MPC4CLR (Model-Predictive-Control-for-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Power-Distribution-Systems) [SWR-22-24]

Model predictive control (MPC) is a system or process control technique for making decisions under uncertainty via rolling look-ahead optimizations at each control step where only the current step decisions are applied, and the rest are discarded. In this work, we developed an MPC for a critical load restoration (CLR) in power distribution systems to recover system service (electricity delivery) following an extreme event-triggered substation outage. The method considers the problem of controlling distributed energy resources (DERs) of the distribution system with the objective of achieving maximum load pick up while satisfying distribution network flow and voltage constraints. A linearized optimal power flow (OPF) model is employed to represent the physics of the network. The problem formulation is augmented with a ramping (up) reserve product for the DERs to ensure improved and upward monotonic load restoration as time evolves. Simulation analysis and performance tests are performed using a modified IEEE 13-bus test feeder integrated with wind, solar, microturbine, and energy storage battery. The software is developed using various software packages in Julia and Python. The MPC model is implemented using the JuMP optimization language in Julia while the data analytics including renewable generation and load demand forecasts, running the MPC simulation and visualizations is performed in Python.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

Hurricane Katrina was the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Katrina's forecast poses major challenges, the most important of which is its rapid intensification. Hurricane intensity forecast with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is difficult because of their coarse resolution. In this article, six 5-day simulations with the ultra-high resolution finite-volume GCM are conducted on the NASA Columbia supercomputer to show the effects of increased resolution on the intensity predictions of Katrina. It is found that the 0.125 degree runs give comparable tracks to the 0.25 degree, but provide better intensity forecasts, bringing the center pressure much closer to observations with differences of only plus or minus 12 hPa. In the runs initialized at 1200 UTC 25 AUG, the 0.125 degree simulates a more realistic intensification rate and better near-eye wind distributions. Moreover, the first global 0.125 degree simulation without convection parameterization (CP) produces even better intensity evolution and near-eye winds than the control run with CP.

Shen, B.-W.↗

An Elevated Reservoir of Air Pollutants over the Mid-Atlantic States During the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign: Airborne Measurements and Numerical Simulations

During a classic heat wave with record high temperatures and poor air quality from July 18 to 23, 2011, an elevated reservoir of air pollutants was observed over and downwind of Baltimore, MD, with relatively clean conditions near the surface. Aircraft and ozonesonde measurements detected approximately 120 parts per billion by volume ozone at 800 meters altitude, but approximately 80 parts per billion by volume ozone near the surface. High concentrations of other pollutants were also observed around the ozone peak: approximately 300 parts per billion by volume CO at 1200 meters, approximately 2 parts per billion by volume NO2 at 800 meters, approximately 5 parts per billion by volume SO2 at 600 meters, and strong aerosol optical scattering (2 x 10 (sup 4) per meter) at 600 meters. These results suggest that the elevated reservoir is a mixture of automobile exhaust (high concentrations of O3, CO, and NO2) and power plant emissions (high SO2 and aerosols). Back trajectory calculations show a local stagnation event before the formation of this elevated reservoir. Forward trajectories suggest an influence on downwind air quality, supported by surface ozone observations on the next day over the downwind PA, NJ and NY area. Meteorological observations from aircraft and ozonesondes show a dramatic veering of wind direction from south to north within the lowest 5000 meters, implying that the development of the elevated reservoir was caused in part by the Chesapeake Bay breeze. Based on in situ observations, Community Air Quality Multi-scale Model (CMAQ) forecast simulations with 12 kilometers resolution overestimated surface ozone concentrations and failed to predict this elevated reservoir; however, CMAQ research simulations with 4 kilometers and 1.33 kilometers resolution more successfully reproduced this event. These results show that high resolution is essential for resolving coastal effects and predicting air quality for cities near major bodies of water such as Baltimore on the Chesapeake Bay and downwind areas in the Northeast.

ozone↗

Ionospheric Storm Effects and Equatorial Plasma Irregularities During the 17-18 March 2015 Event

The intense magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015 caused large disturbances of the ionosphere. Based on the plasma density (Ni) observations performed by the Swarm fleet of satellites, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, and the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, we characterize the storm-related perturbations at low latitudes. All these satellites sampled the ionosphere in morning and evening time sectors where large modifications occurred. Modifications of plasma density are closely related to changes of the solar wind merging electric field (E (sub m)). We consider two mechanisms, prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF), as the main cause for the Ni redistribution, but effects of meridional wind are also taken into account. At the start of the storm main phase, the PPEF is enhancing plasma density on the dayside and reducing it on the nightside. Later, DDEF takes over and causes the opposite reaction. Unexpectedly, there appears during the recovery phase a strong density enhancement in the morning/pre-noon sector and a severe Ni reduction in the afternoon/evening sector, and we suggest a combined effect of vertical plasma drift, and meridional wind is responsible for these ionospheric storm effects. Different from earlier studies about this storm, we also investigate the influence of storm dynamics on the initiation of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs). Shortly after the start of the storm main phase, EPIs appear in the post-sunset sector. As a response to a short-lived decline of E (sub m), EPI activity appears in the early morning sector. Following the second start of the main phase, EPIs are generated for a few hours in the late evening sector. However, for the rest of the storm main phase, no more EPIs are initiated for more than 12 hours. Only after the onset of recovery phase does EPI activity start again in the post-midnight sector, lasting more than 7 hours.This comprehensive view of ionospheric storm effects and plasma irregularities adds to our understanding of conditions that lead to ionospheric instabilities.

Zhou, Yun-Liang↗

EPIC Calibration/Validation Experiment Field Campaign Report

A field exercise involving several different kinds of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and supporting instrumentation systems provided by DOE/ARM and NOAA/NSSL was conducted at the ARM SGP site in Lamont, Oklahoma on 29-30 October 2016. This campaign was part of a larger National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) UAS Program Office program awarded to the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). named Environmental Profiling and Initiation of Convection (EPIC). The EPIC Field Campaign (Test and Calibration/Validation) proposed to ARM was a test or “dry-run” for a follow-up campaign to be requested for spring/summer 2017. The EPIC project addresses NOAA’s objective to “evaluate options for UAS profiling of the lower atmosphere with applications for severe weather.” The project goal is to demonstrate that fixed-wing and rotary-wing small UAS have the combined potential to provide a unique observing system capable of providing detailed profiles of temperature, moisture, and winds within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to help determine the potential for severe weather development. Specific project objectives are: 1) to develop small UAS capable of acquiring needed wind and thermodynamic profiles and transects of the ABL using one fixed-wing UAS operating in tandem with two different fixed rotary-wing UAS pairs; 2) adapt and test miniaturized, high-precision, and fast-response atmospheric sensors with high accuracy in strong winds characteristic of the pre-convective ABL in Oklahoma; 3) conduct targeted short-duration experiments at the ARM Southern Great Plains site in northern Oklahoma concurrently with a second site to be chosen in “real-time” from the Oklahoma Mesonet in coordination with the (National Weather Service (NWS)-Norman Forecast Office; and 4) gain valuable experience in pursuit of NOAA’s goals for determining the value of airborne, mobile observing systems for monitoring rapidly evolving high-impact severe weather conditions not observed with current operational systems. OU operated three UAS at the Lamont SGP site – the OU CopterSonde, the OU Iris, and the Meteomatics Meteodrone – under a blanket Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Certificate of Authorization (COA) allowing flights up to 400 feet above ground level (AGL). The mission for the rotary-wing UAS involved four aircraft, three from the ARM Lamont site and one from an Oklahoma Mesonet site located at Medford, involving a vertical ascent to an altitude of 400 ft (130 m) AGL at ~ 30 minute intervals for ~ 5 hours duration on each of the two experiment days. This operation was conducted in close coordination with NSSL-launched rawinsonde balloons at the two sites, and operation of a fixed-wing UAS from the University of Colorado called the TTwistor that flew mission flight legs between the Lamont site and Medford. The NSSL operation at Medford (outside of ARM) also involved use of their Collaborative Lower Atmosphere Mobile Profiling System (CLAMPS) ground-based remote-sensing system for measuring atmospheric profiles of temperature, moisture, and winds with atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI), microwave radiometer, and Doppler wind lidar systems. The ARM Facility supported the project by providing access to their instrumented tower data at Lamont (at three levels), as well as AERI and Doppler wind lidar data obtained from systems quite similar to those used by CLAMPS. These non-UAS data from both ARM and NSSL provided the observations used to validate the experimental UAS observations.

atmospheric boundary layer↗

A Scheme for finding the Front Boundary of an Interplanetary Magnetic Cloud

We developed a scheme for finding the front boundary of an interplanetary magnetic cloud (MC) based on criteria that depend on the possible existence of any one or all of six specific solar wind features. The features that the program looks for, within +/- 2 hours of a preliminarily determined time for the front boundary, estimated either by visual inspection or by an automatic MC identification scheme, are: (1) a sufficiently large directional discontinuity in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), (2) existence of a magnetic hole, (3) a significant proton plasma beta drop, (4) a significant proton temperature drop, (5) a marked increase in the IMF's intensity, and (6) a significant decrease in a normalized root-mean-square deviation (RMS)of the magnetic field - where the scheme was tested using 5, 10, 15, and 20 minute averages of the relevant physical quantities, in order to find the optimum average (and RMS) to use. Other criteria, besides these six, were examined and dismissed as not reliable, e.g., plasma speed. The scheme was developed specifically for aiding in forecasting the strength and timing of a geomagnetic storm due to the passage of an interplanetary MC in real-time, but can be used in post ground-data collection for imposition of consistency in choosing a MC's front boundary. The scheme has been extensively tested, first using 80 bona fide MCs over about 9 years of WIND data, and also for 121 MC-like structures as defined by a program that automatically identifies such structures over the same period. Optimum limits for various parameters in the scheme were found by statistical studies of the WIND MCs. The resulting limits can be user-adjusted for other data sets, if desired. Final testing of the 80 MCs showed that for 50 percent of the events the boundary estimates occurred within +/-10 minutes of visually determined times, 80 percent occurred within +/-30 minutes, and 91 percent occur within +/-60 minutes, and three or more individual boundary tests were passed for 88 percent of the total MCs. The scheme and its testing will be described.

Lepping, Ronald P.↗

Automated meteorological data from commercial aircraft via satellite - Present experience and future implications

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has developed a low-cost communications system to provide meteorological data from commercial aircraft, in near real-time, on a fully automated basis. The complete system including the low profile antenna and all installation hardware weighs 34 kg. The prototype system has been installed on a Pan American B-747 aircraft and has been providing meteorological data (wind angle and velocity, temperature, altitude and position as a function of time) on a fully automated basis for the past several months. The results have been exceptional. This concept is expected to have important implications for operational meteorology and airline route forecasting.

Steinberg, R.↗

Mesoscale meteorology - Theories, observations and models; Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute, Bonas, Gers, France, July 13-31, 1982

Among the topics discussed are mesoscale processes and variability, regional and cyclonic scale motions and their prediction modeling, fronts, mesoscale instabilities, buoyancy (gravity) waves and topographic forcing, buoyant convection, boundary layers, and observational technology. The specific issues investigated include methods for initializing mesoscale forecast models, an energy theory for the propagation of gravity currents, a theory for rain bands within extratropical cyclones, the morning glory as a nonlinear wave phenomenon, cumulus clouds, the prediction of severe convection, planetary boundary layer parameterization, and three-dimensional wind field analysis from Doppler radar data.

Lilly, D. K.↗

Some comparison of ECMWF 3b and GFDL 3b analyses in the tropics

Owing to the problems that data assimilation procedures have in analyzing data in the tropics and to the apparent differences in the descriptions of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) assimilation suites, a brief comparison was done of the resulting analyses in the tropics. Three cases each were selected for Standard Operating Procedures 1 and 2 at the 200 and 850 mb levels, the wind fields for 25 deg N 25 deg S were partitioned into a rotational and divergent component, and various statistics of each were calculated.

Julian, P. R.↗

Space Transportation System Meteorological Expert

The STS Meteorological Expert (STSMET) is a long-term project to acquire general Shuttle operational weather forecasting expertise specific to the launch locale, to apply it to Shuttle operational weather forecasting tasks at the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility, and ultimately to provide an on-line real-time operational aid to the duty forecasters in performing their tasks. Particular attention is given to the development of an approach called scenario-based reasoning, with specific application to summer thunderstorms; this type of reasoning can also be applied to frontal weather phenomena, visibility including fog, and wind shear.

Beller, Arthur E.↗

Diagnostic studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex

Dynamical fields form the UK Meteorological office global forecast model were used throughout the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) for flight planning and diagnostic studies. Here, several studies based on the Meteorological Office global analysis (resolution 1.5 degrees lattitude x 1.875 degrees longitude, Lyne et al.) are described. The wind and temperature data derived from the model analysis are compared with observations made from both the DCB and ER-2, and an assessment of the model performance given. Derived quantities such as potential vorticity and model data and discrepancies due to the model data are discussed.

Austin, J.↗

Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 1: Executive summary

The laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) will provide a new space based capability for the direct measurement of atmospheric winds in the troposphere. LAWS will make a major contribution toward advancing the understanding and prediction of the total Earth system and NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Program. LAWS is designed to measure a fundamental atmospheric parameter required to advance weather forecasting accuracies and investigate global climatic change. LAWS has a potential added benefit of providing (global) concentration profiles of large aerosols including visible and subvisible cirrus clouds, volcanic dust, smoke, and other pollutants. The objective of this Phase One study was to develop a LAWS concept and configuration. The instrument design is outlined in this first volume of three.

Source record↗

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

hydrometeorological↗

Operation of a High Renewable Penetrated Power System With CSP Plants: A Look-Ahead Stochastic Unit Commitment Model

The integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation, i.e., wind power and solar photovoltaic, brings significant uncertainty for the power system operation. Different with VRE techniques, concentrating solar power (CSP) is an appealing renewable generation technology due to its dispatch ability through the use of thermal energy storage and is thus expected to play a significant role in high renewable energy penetrated power systems. In this paper, we propose a look-ahead stochastic unit commitment model to operate power systems with CSP under high renewable energy penetration. It has a three-stage structure. The first stage optimizes the operational decisions in a day-ahead framework based on forecasts; the second stage minimizes the expected generation cost for possible realizations in the real time; and the third stage accounts for look-ahead operation in future operating days. This paper has a dual purpose: first, exploring how CSP plants operate in high renewable penetrated power systems; and second, analyzing the benefits of CSP in accommodating VRE generation. A case study on a modified IEEE RTS-79 system with actual solar and wind power data is provided to validate the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

Wu, Huan↗