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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of char conversion in Sandia’s pressurized entrained flow reactor

Design and analysis of practical reactors utilizing solid feedstocks rely on reaction rate parameters that are typically generated in lab-scale reactors. Evaluation of the reaction rate information often relies on assumptions of uniform temperature, velocity, and species distributions in the reactor, in lieu of detailed measurements that provide local information. This assumption might be a source of substantial error, since reactor designs can impose significant inhomogeneities, leading to data misinterpretation. Spatially resolved reactor simulations help understand the key processes within the reactor and support the identification of severe variations of temperature, velocity, and species distributions. In this work, Sandia’s pressurized entrained flow reactor is modeled to identify inhomogeneities in the reaction zone. Tracer particles are tracked through the reactor to estimate the residence times and burnout ratio of introduced coal char particles in gasifying environments. The results reveal a complex mixing environment for the cool gas and particles entering the reactor along the centerline and the main high-speed hot gas reactor flow. Furthermore, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results show that flow asymmetries are introduced through the use of a horizontal gas pre-heating section that connects to the vertical reactor tube. Computed particle temperatures and residence times in the reactor differ substantially from the idealized plug flow conditions typically evoked in interpreting experimental measurements. Furthermore, experimental measurements and CFD analysis of heat flow through porous refractory insulation suggest that for the investigated conditions (1350 °C, <20 atm), the thermal conductivity of the insulation does not increase substantially with increasing pressure.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Nucleon momentum fraction, helicity and transversity from 2+1-flavor lattice QCD

A detailed analysis of the systematic uncertainties in the calculation of the isovector momentum fraction, ( x ) u - d , helicity moment, ( x ) Δ u - Δ d , and the transversity moment, ( x ) δu - δd , of the nucleon is presented using high-statistics data on seven ensembles of gauge configurations generated by the JLab/W&M/LANL/MIT collaborations using 2 + 1-flavors of dynamical Wilson-clover quarks. The much higher statistics have facilitated better control over all systematics compared to previous lattice calculations. The least understood systematic — excited-state contamination — is quantified by studying the variation of the results as a function of different estimates of the mass gap of the first excited state, obtained from two- and three-point correlation functions, and as a function of the pion mass M π . The final results are obtained using a simultaneous fit in the lattice spacing a , pion mass M π and the finite volume parameter M π L keeping leading order corrections. The data show no significant dependence on the lattice spacing and some evidence for finite-volume corrections. Our final results, in the $ \overline{\mathrm{MS}} $ scheme at 2 GeV, are ( x ) u - d = 0 . 155(17)(20), ( x ) Δ u - Δ d = 0 . 183(14)(20) and ( x ) δu - δd = 0 . 220(18)(20), where the first error is the overall analysis uncertainty assuming excited-state contributions have been removed, and the second is an additional systematic uncertainty due to possible residual excited-state contributions. These results are consistent with phenomenological global fit values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NuMI Beam Monitoring Simulation and Data Analysis †

Following the decommissioning of the Main Injector Neutrino Oscillation Search (MINOS) experiment, muon and hadron monitors have emerged as vital diagnostic tools for the NuMI Off-axis Appearance (NOvA) experiment at Fermilab. These tools are crucial for overseeing the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. This study endeavors to ensure the monitor signal quality and to correlate them with the Neutrino beam profile. Leveraging muon monitor simulations, we systematically explore the monitor responses to variations in proton-beam and lattice parameters. Through the amalgamation of individual pixel data from muon monitors, pattern-recognition algorithms, simulations, and measured data, we devise machine-learning-based models to predict muon monitor responses and Neutrino flux.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Casimir force on a light front

Depending on the point of view, the Casimir force arises from variation in the energy of the quantum vacuum as boundary conditions are altered or as an interaction between atoms in the materials that form these boundary conditions. Standard analyses of such configurations are usually done in terms of ordinary, equal-time (Minkowski) coordinates. However, physics is independent of the coordinate choice, and an analysis based on light-front coordinates, where x + ≡ t + z / c plays the role of time, is equally valid. After a brief historical introduction, we illustrate and compare equal-time and light-front calculations of the Casimir force.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

General, Rigorous Approach for the Treatment of Interfragment Covalent Bonds

Here, a generalized, projection-based transformation of the method-agnostic Fock operator in various ab initio fragment-based quantum chemistry methods has been developed for the treatment of interfragment covalent bonds. This transformation freezes the relevant localized molecular orbital associated with each interfragment bond, thereby restricting the variational subspace of the fragment wave functions, in order to maintain the proper physical characteristics of the involved covalent bonds. In addition, sets of orbitals that would lead to multiple occupancy of certain orbitals are explicitly removed from the variational space. The transformation is developed for the specific case of mutually orthonormal frozen and unfrozen orbitals within each fragment. The newly developed approach is then used to study model systems with two popular ab initio fragment-based methods, and the results of these calculations are compared to those obtained by existing methodologies. Analysis is focused on both quantitative and qualitative accuracy as well as computational scalability and stability. Other methods for which the developed formalisms are appropriate are outlined, and future extensions of the methods are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High Throughput Data-Driven Design of Laser-Crystallized 2D MoS 2 Chemical Sensors: A Demonstration for NO 2 Detection

High throughput characterization and processing techniques are becoming increasingly necessary to navigate multivariable, data-driven design challenges for sensors and electronic devices. For two-dimensional materials, device performance is highly dependent upon a vast array of material properties including the number of layers, lattice strain, carrier concentration, defect density, and grain structure. In this work, laser crystallization was used to locally pattern and transform hundreds of regions of amorphous MoS 2 thin films into 2D 2H-MoS 2 . Here a high throughput Raman spectroscopy approach was subsequently used to assess the process-dependent structural and compositional variations for each illuminated region, yielding over 6000 distinct nonresonant, resonant, and polarized Raman spectra. The rapid generation of a comprehensive library of structural and compositional data elucidated important trends between structure–property processing relationships involving laser-crystallized MoS 2 , including the relationships between grain size, grain orientation, and intrinsic strain. Moreover, extensive analysis of structure/property relationships allowed for intelligent design and evaluation of major contributions to device performance in MoS 2 chemical sensors. In particular, it is found that NO 2 sensor performance is strongly dependent on the orientation of the MoS 2 grains relative to the crystal plane.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural and functional characterization of NEMO cleavage by SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro

Abstract In addition to its essential role in viral polyprotein processing, the SARS-CoV-2 3C-like protease (3CLpro) can cleave human immune signaling proteins, like NF-κB Essential Modulator (NEMO) and deregulate the host immune response. Here, in vitro assays show that SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro cleaves NEMO with fine-tuned efficiency. Analysis of the 2.50 Å resolution crystal structure of 3CLpro C145S bound to NEMO 226–234 reveals subsites that tolerate a range of viral and host substrates through main chain hydrogen bonds while also enforcing specificity using side chain hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic contacts. Machine learning- and physics-based computational methods predict that variation in key binding residues of 3CLpro-NEMO helps explain the high fitness of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. We posit that cleavage of NEMO is an important piece of information to be accounted for, in the pathology of COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Global scale assessment of urban precipitation anomalies

Urbanization has accelerated dramatically across the world over the past decades. Urban influence on surface temperatures is now being considered as a correction term in climatological datasets. Although prior research has investigated urban influences on precipitation for specific cities or selected thunderstorm cases, a comprehensive examination of urban precipitation anomalies on a global scale remains limited. This research is a global analysis of urban precipitation anomalies for over one thousand cities worldwide. We find that more than 60% of the global cities and their downwind regions are receiving more precipitation than the surrounding rural areas. Moreover, the magnitude of these urban wet islands has nearly doubled in the past 20 y. Urban precipitation anomalies exhibit variations across different continents and climates, with cities in Africa, for example, exhibiting the largest urban annual and extreme precipitation anomalies. Cities are more prone to substantial urban precipitation anomalies under warm and humid climates compared to cold and dry climates. Cities with larger populations, pronounced urban heat island effects, and higher aerosol loads also show noticeable precipitation enhancements. This research maps global urban rainfall hotspots, establishing a foundation for the consideration of urban rainfall corrections in climatology datasets. This advancement holds promise for projecting extreme precipitation and fostering the development of more resilient cities in the future.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Properties of different LLM-105 preparations

LLM-105 (2,6-diamino-3,5-dinitropyrazine-1-oxide) has been prepared at several different size quantities (~10–70 Kg) and not subjected to further purification, such as recrystallization. Chemical and physical properties were compared—small-scale safety testing (impact, friction, ESD), thermal (chemical reactivity, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), one-dimensional time-to-explosion (ODTX)), morphological (particle-size distribution (PSD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD), skeletal density). Each preparation had similar properties to the other preparations except for PSD and PXRD. For PSD, all preparations exhibited a mono-modal distribution with a variation in median values from ~ 40 μm to over 80 μm. All PXRD values indicated the same morphology with minor variations in crystal orientations. Possible polymorphism was also observed in a few cases. SEM images and PXRD indicate all preparations to be diamond-type and X-type crystals with some twinning. Impact, friction, and ESD and thermal sensitivities values are consistent with these type of crystal habits as seen in vast literature studies.

Explosive characterization↗

Exact restoration of Galilei invariance in density functional calculations with quantum Monte Carlo

We investigate some aspects of the connection between mean-field and ab-initio calculations for any-nucleon systems employing the Gogny effective interaction. In particular, we present variational Monte Carlo calculations of 4 He and 16 O, for which we extended the formalism of the linear method to the case of a density-dependent Hamiltonian. Monte Carlo calculations using an uncorrelated basis reduce to Hartree-Fock ones, but Galilean invariance can be preserved, contrary to the usual treatment. An analysis of the results obtained with the Gogny force when used in conjunction with correlated wave functions has also been performed. Here, the calculations show the collapse of the deuteron, leading to a set of unphysical predictions for the structure of heavier nuclei. This behavior remarks the different role of the Gogny effective interaction as compared to bare interactions typically used in fully microscopic calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Phase-field model of alloy solidification far from chemical equilibrium at the solid-liquid interface

We further develop a recently introduced phase-field model of far-from-equilibrium alloy solidification under additive manufacturing conditions [K. Ji et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 026203 (2023)]. This model utilizes enhanced solute diffusivity within the spatially diffuse interface region to quantitatively capture solute trapping with a larger interface width, thereby making simulations on experimentally relevant length and timescales computationally feasible. The main developments presented here include testing the robustness of different variational formulations, extending the model to concentrated alloys by incorporating solid and liquid free energies from thermodynamic databases, as illustrated for hypoeutectic Al-Ag alloys with CALPHAD, extending convergence tests as a function of interface width to 3D, and carrying out simulations in both 2D and 3D to examine existing theories of microstructure development. Our results indicate that the simplest variational formulation that interpolates the bulk free-energy density between its solid and liquid forms is the most robust. Remarkably, for hypoeutectic Al-Ag alloys, this formulation yields a high-velocity nonequilibrium phase diagram that is independent of interface width, thereby demonstrating that the framework of enhanced solute diffusivity can be nontrivially extended to concentrated alloys. Other variational formulations have restricted ranges of materials or processing parameters that can be reliably modeled. We use 2D simulations to construct high-velocity microstructure selection maps for dilute Al-Cu alloys. The results validate the important role of latent heat rejection at the interface and extend the limited predictions of linear stability analysis [A. Karma and A. Sarkissian, Phys. Rev. E 47, 513 (1993)] and sharp-interface 1D simulations to fully nonlinear regimes. Furthermore, 3D simulations, carried out using a computationally tractable axisymmetric cellular/dendritic interface shape, demonstrate a good convergence similar to that observed in 2D as a function of interface width. Full 3D simulations, in turn, reveal that the standard theory of absolute stability is a good predictor of the upper critical velocity beyond which steady-state growth becomes unstable, despite the different morphological manifestations of this instability in 2D and 3D.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal Planning and Operation of Multi-Frequency HVac Transmission Systems

Low-frequency high-voltage alternating-current (LF-HVac) transmission scheme has been recently proposed as an alternative solution to conventional 50/60-Hz HVac and high-voltage direct-current (HVdc) schemes for bulk power transfer. This paper proposes an optimal planning and operation for loss minimization in a multi-frequency HVac transmission system. In such a system, conventional HVac and LF-HVac grids are interconnected using back-to-back (BTB) converters. The dependence of system MW losses on converter dispatch as well as the operating voltage and frequency in the LF-HVac is discussed and compared with that of HVdc transmission. Based on the results of the loss analysis, multi-objective optimization formulations for both planning and operation stages are proposed. The planning phase decides a suitable voltage level for the LF-HVac grid, while the operation phase determines the optimal operating frequency and power dispatch of BTB converters, generators, and shunt capacitors. A solution approach that effectively handles the variations of transmission line parameters with the rated voltage and operating frequency in the LF-HVac grid is proposed. The proposed solutions of the planning and operation stages are evaluated using a multi-frequency HVac system. The results show a significant loss reduction and improved voltage regulation during a 24-hour simulation.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Business Models for Coal Plant Decommissioning

Aging coal-fired power plants are retiring across the United States. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory studied coal-fired power plant decommissioning business models to support program development for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) to engage with communities affected by power plant retirement processes. Evaluating and reducing the impact on coal-dependent communities from phasing out coal production is a crucial piece of nationwide economic development and community-directed engagement in the clean energy future. This report describes the steps in the typical coal-fired power plant decommissioning process, including analysis of the following key factors: Drivers including policy and regulations, competition with other fuels, and corporate responsibility goals; Types of coal plant decommissioning including plant retirement without full decommissioning, repurposing with fuel switch, redeveloping to utilize existing transmission, and decommissioning and repurposing with other commercial activities; and, Costs of coal plant decommissioning, including variations across regulated and deregulated markets and the funding resources to support decommissioning activities. The details described in this report relied heavily on the availability of local news reports and communications regarding plant retirements, as the researchers identified a lack of formal literature surrounding business models for coal plant decommissioning and a need for a more robust source material collection. In addition, a lack of oversight entities responsible for decommissioning processes may have led to this shortfall of information. Future research regarding coal plant decommissioning can include quantitative studies on power plant retirement drivers, procedures, and costs, qualitative assessments on affects decommissioning has on surrounding communities, investors, and other stakeholders, and identifying best practices to engage community stakeholders in the decommissioning process.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Accurate and Fast Anomaly Detection in Additive Composite-Based Manufacturing using Thermal Cameras

Today, large-scale additive manufacturing with plastics and composite materials requires continuous monitoring by experienced staff to prevent, detect and correct anomalous events affecting the performance of the printed part. We address the complexity of this demanding task by designing a camera-based anomaly detection system utilizing probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA). This is a machine learning technique is trained with thermal images collected during normal operation of the large-scale printer (Cincinnati BAAM). This technique is advantageous for practical applications as there is no need to artificially introduce anomalous conditions into model training. During deployment, we challenge this model by introducing deliberate variations of the extruder speed. We reduce extrusion speed to a lower level, between 70 and 95% of the nominal value to collected test images. Our results show that images are easily identified as anomalous for extruder speeds at or below 85% of the nominal speed, meaning that an anomalous reduction of the material deposition rate can be detected within seconds of its onset. We show that our results are robust to (a) camera-to-camera variability and (b) print-to-print variability.

Pike, John [ORNL]↗