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Relating Changing Aerosols to Changing Clouds: Two Decades of Terra and Aqua Observations

The global aerosol system of today is not the same as it was two decades ago when Terra and Aqua were launched. As a result of a changing climate (natural and anthropogenic) convolved with changes in human activity (deliberate and accidental), some regions have experienced significant changes to their total aerosol burden (increases or decreases of total loading) or their aerosol composition (as defined by relative size or source type). Other regions have had less or no significant changes. At the same time, changes in aerosol amount and composition affect clouds through direct and indirect microphysical and radiative processes. We can theoretically predict what might happen to clouds when you add aerosol to an otherwise pristine environment. Conversely, there is the situation of removing aerosol from a polluted environment. Over the past two decades, sensors on both Earth Observing Satellites (Terra and Aqua) have observed the radiative signatures of aerosols and clouds, as well as their changes. Via massive efforts by their respective characterization teams, the resulting data records appear to have a minimum of artificial drifts. Therefore, we are trying to assess, region by region, our 20-year records of aerosols and clouds, along with meteorological variables. Where have been the most significant changes of aerosols and/or clouds? Where do the changes in clouds conform with expectations based on changes of aerosols and meteorology and where do they not? In addition to separate ‘aerosol’ and ‘cloud’ retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), there is a ‘twilight zone’ that is not accounted for in either product. What are these regions, and have they changed over the past two decades? We will present our early efforts at characterizing the MODIS view of aerosol and cloud changes, while also relating to changes in radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) from corresponding observations by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES).

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (~weeks) to climate change (~ multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) may interact with monsoon dynamics to produce feedback effects on the atmospheric water cycle, leading to in accelerated melting of snowpacks over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, and subsequent changes in evolution of the pre-monsoon and peak monsoon rainfall, moisture and wind distributions in South Asia and East Asia.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Videometric Applications in Wind Tunnels

Videometric measurements in wind tunnels can be very challenging due to the limited optical access, model dynamics, optical path variability during testing, large range of temperature and pressure, hostile environment, and the requirements for high productivity and large amounts of data on a daily basis. Other complications for wind tunnel testing include the model support mechanism and stringent surface finish requirements for the models in order to maintain aerodynamic fidelity. For these reasons nontraditional photogrammetric techniques and procedures sometimes must be employed. In this paper several such applications are discussed for wind tunnels which include test conditions with Mach number from low speed to hypersonic, pressures from less than an atmosphere to nearly seven atmospheres, and temperatures from cryogenic to above room temperature. Several of the wind tunnel facilities are continuous flow while one is a short duration blowdown facility. Videometric techniques and calibration procedures developed to measure angle of attack, the change in wing twist and bending induced by aerodynamic load, and the effects of varying model injection rates are described. Some advantages and disadvantages of these techniques are given and comparisons are made with non-optical and more traditional video photogrammetric techniques.

Burner, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS1974

High-transonic-speed transport aircraft study

An initial design study of high-transonic-speed transport aircraft has been completed. Five different design concepts were developed. These included fixed swept wing, variable-sweep wing, delta wing, double-fuselage yawed-wing, and single-fuselage yawed-wing aircraft. The boomless supersonic design objectives of range = 5560 km (3000 nmi), payload = 18,143 kg (40,000 lb), Mach = 1.2, and FAR Part 36 aircraft noise levels were achieved by the single-fuselage yawed-wing configuration with a gross weight of 211,828 kg (467,000 lb). A noise level of 15 EPNdB below FAR Part 36 requirements was obtained with a gross weight increase to 226,796 kg (500,000 lb). The off-design subsonic range capability for this configuration exceeded the Mach 1.2 design range by more than 20%. Although wing aeroelastic divergence was a primary design consideration for the yawed-wing concepts, the graphite-epoxy wings of this study were designed by critical gust and maneuver loads rather than by divergence requirements. The transonic nacelle drag is shown to be very sensitive to the nacelle installation. A six-degree-of-freedom dynamic stability analysis indicated that the control coordination and stability augmentation system would require more development than for a symmetrical airplane but is entirely feasible. A three-plane development plan is recommended to establish the full potential of the yawed-wing concept.

Kulfan, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Solid Lubrication Fundamentals and Applications

This chapter focuses attention on the friction and wear properties of selected solid lubricating films to aid users in choosing the best lubricant, deposition conditions, and operational variables. For simplicity, discussion of the tribological properties of concern is separated into two parts. The first part of the chapter discusses the different solid lubricating films selected for study including commercially developed solid film lubricants: (1) bonded molybdenum disulfide (MoS2), (2) magnetron-sputtered MoS2, (3) ion-plated silver, (4) ion-plated lead, (5) magnetron-sputtered diamondlike carbon (MS DLC), and (6) plasma-assisted, chemical-vapor-deposited diamondlike carbon (PACVD DEC) films. Marked differences in the friction and wear properties of the different films resulted from the different environmental conditions (ultrahigh vacuum, humid air, and dry nitrogen) and the solid film lubricant materials. The second part of the chapter discusses the physical and chemical characteristics, friction behavior, and endurance life of the magnetron-sputtered MoS2 films. The role of interface species and the effects of applied load, film thickness, oxygen pressure, environment, and temperature on the friction and wear properties are considered.

Miyoshi, Kazuhisa↗

NASA NTRS2001

Spectral Unmixing of Vegetation, Soil and Dry Carbon in Arid Regions: Comparing Multispectral and Hyperspectral Observations

Remote sensing of vegetation cover and condition is critically needed to understand the impacts of land use and climate variability in and and semi-arid regions. However, remote sensing of vegetation change in these environments is difficult for several reasons. First, individual plant canopies are typically small and do not reach the spatial scale of typical Landsat-like satellite image pixels. Second, the phenological status and subsequent dry carbon (or non-photosynthetic) fraction of plant canopies varies dramatically in both space and time throughout and and semi-arid regions. Detection of only the 'green' part of the vegetation using a metric such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) thus yields limited information on the presence and condition of plants in these ecosystems. Monitoring of both photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) is needed to understand a range of ecosystem characteristics including vegetation presence, cover and abundance, physiological and biogeochemical functioning, drought severity, fire fuel load, disturbance events and recovery from disturbance.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Flora Mission for Ecosystem Composition, Disturbance and Productivity

Global land use and climate variability alter ecosystem conditions - including structure, function, and biological diversity - at a pace that requires unambiguous observations from satellite vantage points. Current global measurements are limited to general land cover, some disturbances, vegetation leaf area index, and canopy energy absorption. Flora is a pathfinding mission that provides new measurements of ecosystem structure, function, and diversity to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of human and natural disturbances, and the biogeochemical and physiological responses of ecosystems to disturbance. The mission relies upon high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy to deliver full optical spectrum measurements (400-2500 nm) of the global land surface on a monthly time step at 45 meter spatial resolution for three years. The Flora measurement objectives are: (i) fractional cover of biological materials, (ii) canopy water content, (iii) vegetation pigments and light-use efficiency, (iv) plant functional types, (v) fire fuel load and fuel moisture content, and (vi) disturbance occurrence, type and intensity. These measurements are made using a multi-parameter, spectroscopic analysis approach afforded by observation of the full optical spectrum. Combining these measurements, along with additional observations from multispectral sensors, Flora will far advance global studies and models of ecosystem dynamics and change.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Investigation of Freeze and Thaw Cycles of a Gas-Charged Heat Pipe

The traditional constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) currently used on most spacecraft run the risk of bursting the pipe when the working fluid is frozen and later thawed. One method to avoid pipe bursting is to use a gas-charged heat pipe (GCHP) that can sustain repeated freeze/thaw cycles. The construction of the GCHP is similar to that of the traditional CCHP except that a small amount of non-condensable gas (NCG) is introduced and a small length is added to the CCHP condenser to serve as the NCG reservoir. During the normal operation, the NCG is mostly confined to the reservoir, and the GCHP functions as a passive variable conductance heat pipe (VCHP). When the liquid begins to freeze in the condenser section, the NCG will expand to fill the central core of the heat pipe, and ice will be formed only in the grooves located on the inner surface of the heat pipe in a controlled fashion. The ice will not bridge the diameter of the heat pipe, thus avoiding the risk of pipe bursting during freeze/thaw cycles. A GCHP using ammonia as the working fluid was fabricated and then tested inside a thermal vacuum chamber. The GCHP demonstrated a heat transport capability of more than 200W at 298K as designed. Twenty-seven freeze/thaw cycles were conducted under various conditions where the evaporator temperature ranged from 163K to 253K and the condenser/reservoir temperatures ranged from 123K to 173K. In all tests, the GCHP restarted without any problem with heat loads between 10W and 100W. No performance degradation was noticed after 27 freeze/thaw cycles. The ability of the GCHP to sustain repeated freeze/thaw cycles was thus successfully demonstrated.

Ku, Jentung↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of NASA’s Remote-Sensing Capabilities in Coastal Environments

This work represents the second part of a two-part study set up by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) in 2017. The study summarizes a three-year investigation on the feasibility of using satellite remote sensing to monitor emissions of oil and gas operations over the outer continental shelf (OCS) to determine if they have negative impacts on coastal air quality (AQ). The target pollutant is nitrogen dioxide (NO2), for which BOEM conducts regular emissions surveys. The major data source for this report is a May 2019 oceanographic cruise (“SCOAPE” = Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment) conducted in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) off Louisiana with the Research Vessel Point Sur, loaded with a suite of trace-gas analyzers and a direct-sun remote sensor Pandora spectrometer that measures column NO2. The SCOAPE cruise, augmented by in situ NO2 and Pandora measurements at Cocodrie (Louisiana; 29.25° N, 90.66° W) showed that (1) under cloud-free conditions, satellites can detect elevated column NO2 amounts near isolated large platforms and from clusters of smaller operations; (2) satellite (the European Space Agency’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument [TROPOMI]) total column (TC) NO2 agrees well with TC NO2 from ground-based Pandora spectrometers (to 11–18%), with the satellite biased low when pollution levels are higher; (3) in general, NO2 measured in situ and in column amounts by Pandora or TROPOMI is greater over coastal Louisiana than over the OCS; (4) the extent to which Pandora or satellite measurements correlate with surface NO2 is highly variable.

NO2↗

NASA NTRS2002

Reduction of Wake-Stator Interaction Noise Using Passive Porosity

The present study was conducted to assess the potential of Passive Porosity Technology as a mechanism to reduce interaction noise in turbomachinery by reducing the fluctuating forces acting on the vane surfaces. To do so, a typical fan stator airfoil was subjected to the effects of a transversely moving wake; time histories of the primitive aerodynamic variables, obtained from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions, were then input into an acoustic prediction code. This procedure was performed on the solid airfoil to obtain a baseline, and on a series of porous configurations in order to isolate those that yield maximum noise reductions without compromising the aerodynamic performance of the stator. It was found that communication between regions of high pressure differential - made possible by the use of passive porosity - is necessary to significantly alter the noise radiation pattern of the stator airfoil. In general, noise reductions were obtained for those configurations incorporating passive porosity in the region between x/c is approximately 0.15 on the suction side of the airfoil and x/c is approximately 0.20 on the pressure side. Reductions in overall radiated noise of approximately 1.0 dB were obtained. The noise benefit increased to about 2.5 dB when the effects of loading noise alone were considered.

Tinetti, Ana F.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Efficient use of bit planes in the generation of motion stimuli

The production of animated motion sequences on computer-controlled display systems presents a technical problem because large images cannot be transferred from disk storage to image memory at conventional frame rates. A technique is described in which a single base image can be used to generate a broad class of motion stimuli without the need for such memory transfers. This technique was applied to the generation of drifting sine-wave gratings (and by extension, sine wave plaids). For each drifting grating, sine and cosine spatial phase components are first reduced to 1 bit/pixel using a digital halftoning technique. The resulting pairs of 1-bit images are then loaded into pairs of bit planes of the display memory. To animate the patterns, the display hardware's color lookup table is modified on a frame-by-frame basis; for each frame the lookup table is set to display a weighted sum of the spatial sine and cosine phase components. Because the contrasts and temporal frequencies of the various components are mutually independent in each frame, the sine and cosine components can be counterphase modulated in temporal quadrature, yielding a single drifting grating. Using additional bit planes, multiple drifting gratings can be combined to form sine-wave plaid patterns. A large number of resultant plaid motions can be produced from a single image file because the temporal frequencies of all the components can be varied independently. For a graphics device having 8 bits/pixel, up to four drifting gratings may be combined, each having independently variable contrast and speed.

Mulligan, Jeffrey B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

bone↗

NASA NTRS2012

JWST Lifting System

A document describes designing, building, testing, and certifying a customized crane (Lifting Device LD) with a strong back (cradle) to facilitate the installation of long wall panels and short door panels for the GHe phase of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The LD controls are variable-frequency drive controls designed to be adjustable for very slow and very-short-distance movements throughout the installation. The LD has a lift beam with an electric actuator attached at the end. The actuator attaches to a rectangular strong back (cradle) for lifting the long wall panels and short door panels from a lower angle into the vertical position inside the chamber, and then rotating around the chamber for installation onto the existing ceiling and floor. The LD rotates 360 (in very small increments) in both clockwise and counterclockwise directions. Eight lifting pads are on the top ring with 2-in. (.5-cm) eye holes spaced evenly around the ring to allow for the device to be suspended by three crane hoists from the top of the chamber. The LD is operated by remote controls that allow for a single, slow mode for booming the load in and out, with slow and very slow modes for rotating the load.

Tolleson, William↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases. Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission. Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an advanced design methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development effort. In order to fit a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of ground rules and assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated "what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are fit to the outputs of each environment and are "integrated" via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any ''what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will help ensure lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Airfoil Dynamic Stall and Rotorcraft Maneuverability

The loading of an airfoil during dynamic stall is examined in terms of the augmented lift and the associated penalties in pitching moment and drag. It is shown that once stall occurs and a leading-edge vortex is shed from the airfoil there is a unique relationship between the augmented lift, the negative pitching moment, and the increase in drag. This relationship, referred to here as the dynamic stall function, shows limited sensitivity to effects such as the airfoil section profile and Mach number, and appears to be independent of such parameters as Reynolds number, reduced frequency, and blade sweep. For single-element airfoils there is little that can be done to improve rotorcraft maneuverability except to provide good static C(l(max)) characteristics and the chord or blade number that is required to provide the necessary rotor thrust. However, multi-element airfoils or airfoils with variable geometry features can provide augmented lift in some cases that exceeds that available from a single-element airfoil. The dynamic stall function is shown to be a useful tool for the evaluation of both measured and calculated dynamic stall characteristics of single element, multi-element, and variable geometry airfoils.

Bousman, William G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases.1 Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission.2 Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an Advanced Design Methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of Design of Experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development e ort. In order to t a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of Ground Rules and Assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated \what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are t to the outputs of each environment and are integrated via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any \what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will have the potential to lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Zwack, Mathew R.↗