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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

EPIC Cloud Observations with Oxygen Bands Over Snow, Ice and Sunglint Regions

Cloud detections over snow/ice surfaces and sunglint regions are challenging with passive remote sensing instrument due to lack of contract between cold/bright surfaces in the former and glint reflectance that could exceed that of cloudy sky in the latter. We developed novel cloud detection algorithms for these regions utilizing EPIC’s unique oxygen-bands. Over the snow and ice surfaces, a dynamic threshold scheme based on the ratios of two pairs of EPIC’s oxygen bands are developed to significantly improve the existing algorithm in these regions. Over the ocean, we improved the EPIC’s ocean cloud mask algorithm by implementing a dynamic reflectance threshold and supplemental A-band ratio test for cloud detection in the sun glint regions. The new ocean cloud mask algorithm improves the diurnal cycles of cloud fraction over ocean by reducing the artificial peak at local noon time in the glint center latitudes and reducing early morning and afternoon cloud fraction in most oceanic regions.

EPIC↗

NASA NTRS2021

Go-Around Criteria Refinement for Transport Category Aircraft

Presently, airline pilots are trained to go around if, when lower than 500 ft above the ground, they are outside of a handful of parameters such as airspeed, position, and rate of descent. At times, pilots do not comply with these criteria, perhaps owing to their conservative nature or complexity. This paper examines potential refinements to the continue-to-land decision from the combined results of three flight simulator experiments. Potential refinements include simplifying the number of parameters and lowering the altitude at which pilots make the decision. First, refinements were developed by evaluating pilots’ touchdown performance and qualitative data in a variety of starting and environmental conditions. Second, 30 of those pilots evaluated the refinements under several induced instabilities during the approach. The results showed little difference in touchdown performance when lowering the decision altitude from 500 to 300 ft; however, significant differences arose when the decision altitude was lowered further to 100 ft. The proposed new criteria include assessments of deviations in airspeed and position, no rate-of-descent audio warning, and having an appropriate engine setting at 1000, 500, and 300 ft height above threshold. Additionally, a recommendation is made that if the proposed criteria are not met at the 1000 or 500 ft height above threshold the pilots may make corrections and continue the approach; however, if the criteria are not met at 300 ft, then a go-around should be performed.

stabilized approach criteria↗

NASA NTRS1996

Polar Vortex Conditions During the 1995-96 Artic Winter: Meteorology and MLS Ozone

The 1995-96 northern hemisphere (NH) winter was colder than any of the previous 17 NH winters, with temperatures continuously below the type 1 polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) threshold for over 2 1/2 months; upper tropospheric ridges in late Feb and early Mar 1996 led to the lowest observed NH winter lower stratospheric temperatures, and the latest observation of HN temperatures below the type 2 PSC threshold.

arctic↗

NASA NTRS2019

Improving SMAP freeze-thaw retrievals for pavements using effective soil temperature from GEOS-5: Evaluation against in situ road temperature data over the U.S

Seasonal freeze-thaw (FT) affects over half the northern hemisphere and impacts many key processes of the Earth System such as energy exchange, hydrology and vegetation. Nearly all past studies using spaceborne FT retrievals have focused on characterizing FT specifically for natural environments. FT in the built environment is also routinely studied and a topic of great interest, especially with regards to transportation infrastructure. Whereas natural FT process are frequently investigated using spaceborne observations, FT studies of roads are often limited to local scales, using in situ or nearby weather station data only. Comparisons between FT retrievals obtained from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite and roads in Alaska (AK) and the Contiguous United States (CONUS) showed that spaceborne FT retrievals had good agreement with road data. But those results also indicated that NASA FT retrievals in CONUS were relatively too warm compared to road data. If SMAP FT retrievals were to be used for identifying FT transition timing for applications by the transportation community, it is also important for frozen conditions to be identified more accurately. This work is primarily concerned with improving frozen retrievals made in CONUS by calculating new Normalized Polarization Ratio (NPR) thresholds as compared to those currently used in SMAP FT. We found that focusing on a temporal subset of October through May for comparisons greatly improved the correlation between NPR and effective soil temperature (Teff, one of SMAP's ancillary datasets), often from about zero to 0.6. We then applied linear regression between NPR and Teff to obtain new NPR thresholds resulting in the FT-Roads (FT-R) product. NASA FT and FT-R were evaluated against road data at about 1000 locations in CONUS and a battery of different tests indicated that FT-R performed better under nearly all conditions compared to NASA FT. Overall, NASA FT accuracies were 69% and 80% for 6 am and 6 pm SMAP retrievals, while FT-R achieved accuracies of 79% and 82%. We also investigated the potential for using Teff for road FT (6 am, only) and found that those comparisons were even more accurate (84%). We've also quantified inter- and intraregional differences of SMAP FT performance and found that accuracy metrics vary over twice as much between geographic subdivisions (9%) as compared to between the states within a subdivision (4%). Most importantly, the main goal of improving the detection of in situ frozen conditions in CONUS was realized, with FT-R accurately detecting frozen conditions >50% more frequently than NASA FT.

Passive microwave↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Reaction Monitoring for Lunar Applications Utilizing a Single Quadrupole Residual Gas Analyzer

With a revived focus to create a permeant presence on the moon and in preparation for future Mars exploration, it is imperative that all re-sources are utilized to their fullest potential. In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) will be critical for future mission success as it would enable independent operation of missions while minimally relying on the complex supply chain created between the Earth, moon and Mars. One of the most critical resources that have been identified for ISRU is the creation of liquid oxygen (O2) for not only breathable air, but also for rocket fuel. On the moon and potentially Mars, one of the most O2 rich resources is in the presence of regolith. Although there are numerous minerals within regolith and various processes to extract O2, this is not the scope of this paper. Since the O2 extraction method can vary, a critical standardized analytical method is needed to verify O2 (or oxygenated precursor compounds) for extraction efficiency and purity. Our group utilizes a modified consumer off-the-shelf (COTS), Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA) Single Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QMS). Due to the current field mission requirements, the gas analysis module will need to rely only on mass-to-charge ratios (m/z) and peak intensities to differentiate and quantitate targeted gas-phase reactants or products, i.e. carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and hydrogen (H2). However, due to solar wind implanted volatiles and various other compounds present in lunar regolith, such as nitrogen (N2), helium (He), and deuterium (D2), deconvolution and quantification of isobaric compounds becomes quite difficult. Specifically, the presence of N2 makes quantification of CO, an oxygenated precursor, difficult due to both compounds having a peak at m/z 28. Approaches to differentiate isobaric components: Initially, the solution to overcome isobaric overlap was to use isotopic ratios, particularly be-tween carbon-13 and nitrogen-15. Although limited literature discuss isotopic composition and attempt to quantify the ratios, variation is particularly high and limited to a few lunar regolith samples. The following were identified as potential approaches to quantify isobaric species, N2 and CO, using our RGA. Threshold Ionization. CO and N2 both have peaks at m/z 28, but only N2 is capable of producing a peak at m/z 7. While a N2 peak at m/z 7 is generally rare, instrument parameters can be optimized in order to maximize the peak intensity. Typically a standard ionization energy of 70 eV is used to monitor a batch process and would produce reliable results for a majority of the reactants or products that we are interested in quantifying. However, to analyze the rare molecular fragment of N2 (N2+ at m/z 7), a different ionization energy may be beneficial. Threshold Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) will be explored to optimize the N2+ peak at m/z 7 by varying parameters such as ionization energy and pressure. Therefore, a quantitative value at m/z 7 will be used to determine the product gas concentration of N2, which will be subtracted from the total concentration determined at m/z 28 enabling us to approximate the amount of CO. Secondary Detector (infrared gas detector, IR). Another approach to quantitate and differentiate be-tween isobaric components is to leverage alternative modes of detection. Unlike mass spectrometry, which generally uses a separation step prior to analysis (i.e. gas chromatography), IR produces energy that is specifically absorbed depending on the bond and configuration of the molecule. This technique could be leveraged since it is generally only active on non-symmetric molecules, i.e. CO. Utilizing concentrations of CO determined from another detector could help correct concentrations of CO obtained from the QMS. However, the inclusion of another detector adds additional mission requirements, such as power, software changes and avionics updates that add additional cost and schedule requirements.

mass spectrometry↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Dark Target research aerosol algorithm for MODIS observations over eastern China: increasing coverage while maintaining accuracy at high aerosol loading

Satellite aerosol products such as the Dark Target (DT) produced from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are useful for monitoring the progress of air pollution. Unfortunately, the DT often fails to retrieve during the heaviest aerosol events as well as the more moderate events in winter. Some of the literature at-tributes this lack of retrieval to the cloud mask. However, we found this lack of retrieval is mainly traced to thresholds used for masking of inland water and snow. Modifications to these two masks greatly increase 50 % of the retrievals of aerosol optical depth at 0.55 μm (AOD) greater than 1.0. The “extra”-high-AOD retrievals tend to be biased when com-pared with a ground-based sun photometer (AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET). Reducing bias in new retrievals re-quires two additional steps. One is an update to the assumed aerosol optical properties (aerosol model); the haze in this region is both less absorbing and lower in altitude than what is assumed in the global algorithm. The second is account-ing for the scale height of the aerosol, specifically that the heavy-aerosol events in the region are much closer to the surface than what is assumed by the global DT algorithm. The resulting combination of modified masking thresholds, new aerosol model, and lower aerosol layer scale height was applied to 3 months of MODIS observations (January–March2013) over eastern China. After these two additional steps are implemented, the significant increase in new retrievals introduces no overall bias at a high-AOD regime but does degrade other overall validation statistics. We also find that the research algorithm is able to identify additional pollution events that AERONET instruments may not due to different spatial sampling. Mean AOD retrieved from the re-search algorithm increases from 0.11 to 0.18 compared to values calculated from the operational DT algorithm during January to March of 2013 over the study area. But near Beijing, where the severe pollution occurs, the new algorithm increases AOD by as much as 3.0 for each 0.5°grid box over the previous operational-algorithm values.

Dark Target↗

NASA NTRS2021

Determining Planetary Boundary Layer Height by Micro-pulse Lidar with Validation by UAV Measurements

Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is often used to characterize the structure of the lower atmosphere. Aerosol lidar, a ground-based remote sensing method, provides the vertical distribution of aerosol at a high temporal resolution observation data, from which, the PBL structure and the position of the PBL top can be comprehensively studied. PBLH determination with lidar data depends primarily on the characteristic turbulent motions in the atmosphere and the geophysical location. However, lidar determination of PBLH over densely populated subtropical locations has rarely been discussed; thus, developing retrieval techniques suitable to these areas is necessary. In this study, four PBLH determination methods (Gradient, δ–threshold, Haar wavelet transform, and hybrid image processing) are applied to estimate the PBLH from lidar observations over an urban area in East Asia, and one—the Gradient method—relied on potential temperature measurements from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights to validate our results. Our results indicate that a combination of the gradient method and δ-threshold method can provide better results, in terms of diurnal pattern, than using either method individually. Furthermore, the Haar wavelet and the Hybrid image processing can detect the PBL development comparably well, but both methods are dependent on their initial conditions and optimized algorithm settings. In addition, the accompanying UAV observations are conclusively shown to have a high degree of efficacy for validating the lidar data. This research highlights that a combination of PBLH determination methods can better describe the PBLH evolution throughout a day in some cases, while in others less common determination methods are proving useful, and a suite of retrieval methods should still be explored for precisely mapping the PBL in densely populated subtropical areas.

Yueh-Chen Wang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cloud Detection over Sunglint Regions with Observations from the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC)

With the ability to observe the entire sunlit side of the Earth, EPIC data have become an important resource for studying cloud daily variability. Inaccurate cloud masking is a great source of uncertainty. One main region that is prone to error in cloud masking is the sunglint area over ocean surfaces. Cloud detection over these regions is challenging for the EPIC instrument because of its limited spectral channels. Clear sky ocean surface reflectance from visible channels over sunglint is much larger than that over the non-glint areas and can exceed reflectance from thin clouds. This paper presents an improved EPIC ocean cloud masking algorithm (Version 3). Over sunglint regions (glint angle ≤ 25°), the algorithm utilizes EPIC’s oxygen (O2) A-band ratio (764nm to 780 nm) in addition to the 780 nm reflectance observations in masking tests. Outside the sunglint regions, a dynamic reflectance threshold for the Rayleigh corrected 780 nm reflectance is applied. The thresholds are derived as a function of glint angle. When compared with co-located data from the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) and the low Earth orbit (LEO) observations, the consistency of the new ocean cloud mask algorithm has increased by 4~10% and 4~6% in the glint center and granule edges respectively. The false positive rate is reduced by 10~17%. Overall global ocean cloud detection consistency increases by 2%. This algorithm, along with other improvements to the EPIC cloud masks, has been implemented in the EPIC cloud products Version 3. This algorithm will improve the cloud daily variability analysis by removing the artificial peak at local noon time in the glint center latitudes and reducing biases in the early morning and late afternoon cloud fraction over ocean surfaces.

EPIC↗

NASA NTRS2021

Maya Forest Water Resources I: Using NASA Earth Observations to Map Forested Inundation in the Maya Forest

As climate change increases the severity and frequency of extreme weather events in the tropics, it is vital for the safety of local communities and the health of ecosystems to monitor seasonal inundation. Forested inundation affects the ability of forested wetlands to provide ecosystem services, such as flood mitigation, water filtration, carbon storage, and erosion mitigation. While ground-based monitoring has traditionally been used to map inundation extent, those methods are costly and time-intensive. The NASA DEVELOP team focused on seasonal inundation throughout 2008 in the Maya Forest, when changes in inundation were drastic. To monitor seasonal inundation, our team used in situ field data and Earth observations from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 1, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and products from the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). The team applied a Random Forest algorithm to Landsat 7 imagery, generating an object-level land cover classification with an overall accuracy of 72.1% and forest class with 100% recall and 78% precision. The team applied L-band backscatter thresholds from existing literature to forest-masked ALOS imagery and refined the thresholds in an iterative process using field data and hydrology models to delineate seasonal inundation extent. These publicly available data products help end users from Belize’s Land Information Center (LIC) and Forest Department, Guatemala’s Center for Monitoring and Evaluation (CEMEC), and Mexico’s El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) to inform land management and protect community infrastructure.

Madelyn Savan↗

NASA NTRS2021

GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run

We report on gravitational wave discoveries from compact binary coalescences detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo in the first half of the third observing run (O3a) between 1 April 2019 15:00 UTC and 1 October 2019 15:00 UTC. By imposing a false-alarm-rate threshold of two per year in each of the four search pipelines that constitute our search, we present 39 candidate gravitational wave events. At this threshold, we expect a contamination fraction of less than 10%. Of these, 26 candidate events were reported previously in near real-time through GCN Notices and Circulars; 13 are reported here for the first time. The catalog contains events whose sources are black hole binary mergers up to a redshift of ~ 0.8, as well as events whose components could not be unambiguously identified as black holes or neutron stars. For the latter group, we are unable to determine the nature based on estimates of the component masses and spins from gravitational wave data alone. The range of candidate event masses which are unambiguously identified as binary black holes (both objects ≥ 3 M⨀) is increased compared to GWTC-1, with total masses from ∼ 14M⨀ for GW190924 021846 to ∼ 150M⨀ for GW190521. For the first time, this catalog includes binary systems with significantly asymmetric mass ratios, which had not been observed in data taken before April 2019. We also find that 11 of the 39 events detected since April 2019 have positive effective inspiral spins under our default prior (at 90% credibility), while none exhibit negative effective inspiral spin. Given the increased sensitivity of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, the detection of 39 candidate events in ∼26 weeks of data (∼1.5 per week) is consistent with GWTC-1.

Gravitational wave detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Calcium Oxalate Stone Risk with Interventions

Introduction Mitigations intended to reduce bone mineral loss in-flight also influence the level of renal stone risk to astronauts. Extending a recent study completed by our group [1], we investigate the likely influence of combined fluid intake and Ca excretion mitigation strategies. Methods A computational biochemistry model representing CaOx crystal precipitation, growth, and agglomeration [2] is combined with a probabilistic analysis to predict the in-flight CaOx renal stone incidence risk ratio (IRR) relative to pre-flight values using 1517 astronaut 24-hour urine chemistries. The output of this simulation is used to assess the combined impact of controlling fluid intake and Ca excretion on maintaining IRR < 1.2 for > 95% of the population, a threshold determined from initial analysis of the model output compared to referent populations [1]. Results and Conclusions Figure 1 illustrates the simulated in-flight astronaut population (n=40000) with CaOx IRR > 1.2. The red lines indicate the known clinical risk boundary of each factor, and the white box is considered the area of high combined clinical risk. The simulation and identified risk threshold conform well to the expected clinical risk boundaries. The results, assuming insensible water losses equal or exceed 0.7 L/day, imply mitigations achieve risks similar to pre-flight levels when either Ca < 150 mg/day or fluid volume intake > 3.2 L/day individually, or combined Ca < 200 and fluid volume intake > 2.5 L/day. We continue to investigate similar compounded effects and look to apprise engineering trades by informing relative risk changes during mission design. References [1] D. A. Goodenow-Messman, S. A. Gokoglu, M. Kassemi, and J. Myers, Jerry G., “Characterization of Astronaut CaOx Renal Stone Incidence Rates to Quantify In-flight and Post-flight Relative Risk,” npj Microgravity, in review, 2021. [2] M. Kassemi and D. Thompson, “Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 1. Effect of microgravity-induced biochemical alterations,” Am. J. Physiol. Physiol., vol. 311, no. 3, pp. F520–F530, Sep. 2016, doi: 10.1152/ajprenal.00401.2015.

Debra A Goodenow↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS): Clinical Update

Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS) is a condition unique to long-duration spaceflight, with an unclear pathogenesis and pathophysiology, and no perfect terrestrial analog. Approximately 69% of long duration astronauts present with the earliest indications of SANS, which is defined as development of one or more of the following new signs in at least one eye during or immediately after spaceflight: 1) optic disc edema (ODE; represented by an increase of ≥ 20 microns in peripapillary total retinal thickness [ΔTRT]); 2) chorioretinal folds; 3) globe flattening; and 4) excessive shift in refractive error (≥ +0.75D). Each of these signs presents potential risk to a crewmember’s vision and mission effectiveness, with ODE posing the highest risk overall. It is not yet known what severity and/or duration of signs represents the “pathological” threshold of SANS, or how this threshold will eventually influence the SANS case definition. Brain anatomical changes also occur during long-duration spaceflight and are being monitored in the astronaut population; however, these changes have not yet been associated with functional decrements or with SANS. An update will be provided on the latest SANS clinical analyses, diagnostic technologies, and program initiatives.

TJ Brunstetter↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Risk Due to Small Sample Size in Probability of Detection Analysis Using Tolerance Intervals

Small sample size (e.g.6-30) poses risk in results of probability of detection (POD) analysis using tolerance intervals. This method is also called as the limited sample or LS POD. The analysis is performed either during NDE procedure qualification or for assessment of reliability of an NDE procedure. The risk is primarily due to sampling error. Smaller samples are not likely to be random to the population or representative of the population. The small samples are likely to be biased. Biased samples have smaller standard deviation compared to the population. POD analysis with small biased sample can lead to overestimation of POD. Many sampling schemes are available in statistics to mitigate sampling risk. Primary objective of POD analysis is to determine a decision threshold from signal response measurements of a sample such that it is less than or equal to population decision threshold for 90% POD. Sampling error implies that this NDE reliability condition is violated. One of sampling types is called a representative sample. Representative samples reduce variance in POD estimates but also reduce magnitude of the error. Sampling sensitivity analysis for some sampling types is performed here using repetitive random sampling or Monte Carlo method. Six sampling types are considered for comparison. Some of the sampling types are similar to drawing a representative sample. LS POD model assumes random sampling. Therefore, random sampling is used as a basis for comparison with each sampling type. The sampling types used in the analysis are, A. Nominal and worst-case sampling, B. Worst-case sampling, C. Nominal case sampling, D. Random sampling, E. Random target, and sub-target sampling. F. Nominal target and sub-target sampling. Results of Monte Carlo simulation indicate that type F sampling can mitigate sampling risk and is also more practical to implement. Type A sampling may also mitigate the sampling risk, but it may be less practical to implement.

Ajay M Koshti↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Enhanced Model for Evaluating Failure Propagation in Launch Vehicle Engine Sections

An important component in the assessment of launch vehicle safety is the estimation of the likelihood of large-scale explosions given the existence of failures that manifest as a localized energy release. A failure propagation model is presented for simulating cascading failures of energetic components in proximity where the primary modes of energy transfer are fragments/shrapnel and blast overpressure. The model is an extension of the model developed by Mathias and Motiwala (2015) [1] with enhancements to include the effects of fragment ricochet, fragment drag, fragment ballistic limit equation thresholds, and blast impulse thresholds. A series of sensitivity studies were conducted for a generic launch vehicle engine section and results are presented that illustrate the effects of the model modifications.

Susie Go↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surrogate Fuel Chemistry from ReaxFF Molecular Dynamics

Reactive molecular dynamics with ReaxFF simulations are used to study the chemistry of four component jet fuel mixtures of n-dodecane, iso-octane, n-propylbenzene, and mesitylene. ReaxFF does not require knowledge of the chemistry a priori providing insight into reactions otherwise not seen in established chemical kinetic mechanisms. The results show that a difference in the local chemical environment can change the fuel decomposition pathways across the surrogate mixtures where the same fuel species are used. These simulations highlight the need to consider cross-chemical interactions in chemical kinetic mechanism development and the importance of resonance stabilized polyaromatic hydrocarbon reactions for soot growth and formation. A method for predicting the threshold sooting index from the carbon species formed at the end of the simulations is established. The results of the simulations are consistent with measurements of the threshold sooting index with the predicted values within 20% of the measured data

Surrogate Fuels↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Enhanced Model for Evaluating Failure Propagation in Launch Vehicle Engine Sections

Susie Go↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPACEFLIGHT ASSOCIATED NEURO-OCULAR SYNDROME (SANS): 2023 CLINICAL UPDATE

INTRODUCTION Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS) is a condition unique to long-duration spaceflight, with an unclear pathogenesis and pathophysiology, and no perfect terrestrial analog. Approximately 66% of long duration spaceflight (LDSF) astronauts present with the earliest indication of SANS, which is defined as development of any of the following signs in at least one eye during or immediately following spaceflight: 1) optic disc edema (ODE; represented by an increase of ≥ 20 microns in peripapillary total retinal thickness [ΔTRT]); 2) chorioretinal folds; 3) globe flattening; and 4) excessive shift in refractive error (≥ +0.75D). Each of these signs presents potential risk to a crewmember’s vision and mission effectiveness, with ODE posing the highest risk overall. It is not yet known what severity and/or duration of these signs might lead to acute or permanent impacts to ocular anatomy or visual performance. Brain anatomical changes also occur during long-duration spaceflight and are being monitored in the astronaut population; however, these changes have not yet been associated with functional decrements or with SANS. An update will be provided on the latest SANS clinical analyses, diagnostics, and program initiatives. METHODS Data were obtained from clinical records and SANS subject matter experts (SMEs) to compile a SANS clinical update. Areas of interest include: 1) prevalence of SANS signs, 2) defining clinical thresholds for SANS, and 3) an overview of current and planned SANS clinical efforts. DISCUSSION SANS Sign Prevalence: Analysis at the time of this abstract submission indicates that the approximate prevalence of primary SANS findings in USOS LDSF crewmembers is: 64% for ODE (≥ 20-micron ΔTRT), 15% for chorioretinal folds, 26% for globe flattening, and 14% for hyperopic shifts in refractive error (≥ +0.75D). Clinical Thresholds:  The Earliest Indication of SANS was presented publicly for the first time at the 2020 NASA Human Research Program Investigators’ Workshop. See definition in Introduction section (above).  Clinically Concerning SANS – Development of any of the following signs during or immediately following spaceflight: 1) ODE (≥ 55-micron ΔTRT* and/or Frisèn grade ≥1*), 2) sharp chorioretinal folds in the vicinity of the macula, or 3) moderate globe flattening.  Pathological SANS with an Acute Functional Impact – Development of any of the following signs/symptoms during or immediately following spaceflight: 1) visual field loss (e.g., enlarged blindspot), 2) distorted centralvision, or 3) shift in refractive error beyond power of available correction (e.g., “space anticipation glasses”).  Pathological SANS affecting Long-Term Health – Development of any of the following signs/symptoms during or following spaceflight: 1) permanent visual field loss, 2) reduced retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, 3) permanently distorted central vision, 4) atrophy of retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) or photoreceptors, or 5) choroidal neovascularization. Current & Planned Clinical Efforts (accurate at time of abstract submission): All SANS diagnostic hardware are performing nominally onboard the International Space Station: vision screening, fundoscope, optical coherence tomography (OCT) device, ultrasound, and tonometer. The Goggle-Based Visual Field (GBVF) device is nearing completion of its clinical validation study at Ohio State University and is planned for parabolic flight testing in fiscal year 2023 (FY23); pending positive results, this sequence may pave the way towards an ISS technology demonstration in FY24.

T J Brunstetter↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Maximum Temperatures of a Li-ion Battery on a Simulated Flight Profile using a Model-based Prognostics

One of the challenges in using Li-ion packs in aeronautics is their safety, and thermal runaway (TR) is a major concern. The current engineering solutions to prevent a Li-ion pack from a catastrophic TR require additional mass and volume to isolate cells. The excess mass could be reduced by improving detection and, thus, preventing a TR event. One of the possible early warning indicators of a TR is crossing a threshold temperature. We have developed an approach, based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), to predict the likelihood of reaching the threshold temperature for simulated flight profiles. The current battery prognostics algorithms for aerospace predict state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) [1]. We extended this two-level algorithm to predict the maximum temperature during discharge. The amount of heat generated in a cell depends on factors such as cell chemistry, cell packaging, total cycles, operating temperature, and abuse history [2]. Our semi-empirical thermal model depends on three phenomenological parameters which account for those factors. In addition, a two-parameter reduced-order model is developed to predict the temperature rise for short bursts of “random-walk” (RW) discharge current sequence, which simulates a flight's current-loading profile. The performance of these models on different datasets and types of current loading will be presented. To predict the maximal temperatures for future cycles we must estimate the evolution of thermal parameters as the batteries age. It is found that the parameters of the 3-parametric thermal model cannot be estimated only from the RW data. To address the issue, we will present two alternative approaches: i) expanding the datasets to include discharge profiles beyond RWs; ii) model reduction to a two-parametric model. The two approaches will be illustrated by an application to the cycling data from a commercial LG 18650 cell. References: 1. M. Daigle, C.S. Kulkarni, End-of-discharge and End-of-life Prediction in Lithium-ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-based Aging Models, in: AIAA Infotech @ Aerospace, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, San Diego, California, USA, 2016. 2. M. Börner, et. al, Correlation of aging and thermal stability of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries, Journal of Power Sources. 342 (2017) 382–392.

Thermal runaway↗