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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,531 records · Page 85
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of Phase-Type Stochastic Petri Nets With Discrete and Continuous Timing

The Petri net formalism is useful in studying many discrete-state, discrete-event systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and other complex behavior. As a bipartite graph, the net can conveniently capture salient aspects of the system. As a mathematical tool, the net can specify an analyzable state space. Indeed, one can reason about certain qualitative properties (from state occupancies) and how they arise (the sequence of events leading there). By introducing deterministic or random delays, the model is forced to sojourn in states some amount of time, giving rise to an underlying stochastic process, one that can be specified in a compact way and capable of providing quantitative, probabilistic measures. We formalize a new non-Markovian extension to the Petri net that captures both discrete and continuous timing in the same model. The approach affords efficient, stationary analysis in most cases and efficient transient analysis under certain restrictions. Moreover, this new formalism has the added benefit in modeling fidelity stemming from the simultaneous capture of discrete- and continuous-time events (as opposed to capturing only one and approximating the other). We show how the underlying stochastic process, which is non-Markovian, can be resolved into simpler Markovian problems that enjoy efficient solutions. Solution algorithms are provided that can be easily programmed.

Jones, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Stochastic Control Synthesis of Systems with Structured Uncertainty

This paper presents a study on the design of robust controllers by using random variables to model structured uncertainty for both SISO and MIMO feedback systems. Once the parameter uncertainty is prescribed with probability density functions, its effects are propagated through the analysis leading to stochastic metrics for the system's output. Control designs that aim for satisfactory performances while guaranteeing robust closed loop stability are attained by solving constrained non-linear optimization problems in the frequency domain. This approach permits not only to quantify the probability of having unstable and unfavorable responses for a particular control design but also to search for controls while favoring the values of the parameters with higher chance of occurrence. In this manner, robust optimality is achieved while the characteristic conservatism of conventional robust control methods is eliminated. Examples that admit closed form expressions for the probabilistic metrics of the output are used to elucidate the nature of the problem at hand and validate the proposed formulations.

Padula, Sharon L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards provably efficient quantum algorithms for large-scale machine-learning models

Large machine learning models are revolutionary technologies of artificial intelligence whose bottlenecks include huge computational expenses, power, and time used both in the pre-training and fine-tuning process. In this work, we show that fault-tolerant quantum computing could possibly provide provably efficient resolutions for generic (stochastic) gradient descent algorithms, scaling as $\mathcal{O}$(T 2 x polylog($n$)), where n is the size of the models and T is the number of iterations in the training, as long as the models are both sufficiently dissipative and sparse, with small learning rates. Based on earlier efficient quantum algorithms for dissipative differential equations, we find and prove that similar algorithms work for (stochastic) gradient descent, the primary algorithm for machine learning. In practice, we benchmark instances of large machine learning models from 7 million to 103 million parameters. We find that, in the context of sparse training, a quantum enhancement is possible at the early stage of learning after model pruning, motivating a sparse parameter download and re-upload scheme. Our work shows solidly that fault-tolerant quantum algorithms could potentially contribute to most state-of-the-art, large-scale machine-learning problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Scheduling Framework using SP-ADMM for Residential Demand Response with Weather and Consumer Uncertainties

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. Here, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermo-Mechanical Phase-Field Modeling of Fracture in High-Burnup UO2 Fuels Under Transient Conditions

This study presents a novel multiphysics phase-field fracture model to analyze high-burnup uranium dioxide (UO2) fuel behavior under transient reactor conditions. Fracture is treated as a stochastic phase transition, which inherently accounts for the random microstructural effects that lead to variations in the value of fracture strength. Moreover, the model takes into consideration the effects of temperature and burnup on thermal conductivity. Therefore, the model is able to predict crack initiation, propagation, and complex morphologies in response to thermal gradients and stress distributions. Several simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of operational and transient conditions on fracture behavior and the resulting cracking patterns. High-burnup fuels exhibit reduced thermal conductivity, elevating temperature gradients and resulting in extensive radial and circumferential cracks. Transient heating rates and temperatures significantly affect fracture patterns, with higher heating rates generating steeper gradients and more irregular crack trajectories. This approach provides critical insights into fuel integrity during accident scenarios and supports the safety evaluation of extended burnup limits.

Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Strategy for Autogeneration of Space Shuttle Ground Processing Simulation Models for Project Makespan Estimations

Space Shuttle Processing is a complicated and highly variable project. The planning and scheduling problem, categorized as a Resource Constrained - Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem (RC-SPSP), has a great deal of variability in the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) process flow from one flight to the next. Simulation Modeling is a useful tool in estimation of the makespan of the overall process. However, simulation requires a model to be developed, which itself is a labor and time consuming effort. With such a dynamic process, often the model would potentially be out of synchronization with the actual process, limiting the applicability of the simulation answers in solving the actual estimation problem. Integration of TEAMS model enabling software with our existing schedule program software is the basis of our solution. This paper explains the approach used to develop an auto-generated simulation model from planning and schedule efforts and available data.

Madden, Michael G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

EdgeAI: Machine learning via direct attached accelerator for streaming data processing at high shot rate x-ray free-electron lasers

We present a case for low batch-size inference with the potential for adaptive training of a lean encoder model. We do so in the context of a paradigmatic example of machine learning as applied in data acquisition at high data velocity scientific user facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source-II x-ray Free-Electron Laser. We discuss how a low-latency inference model operating at the data acquisition edge can capitalize on the naturally stochastic nature of such sources. We simulate the method of attosecond angular streaking to produce representative results whereby simulated input data reproduce high-resolution ground truth probability distributions. By minimizing the mean-squared error between the decoded output of the latent representation and the ground truth distributions, we ensure that the encoding layers and resulting latent representation maintains full fidelity for any downstream task, be it classification or regression. We present throughput results for data-parallel inference of various batch sizes, some with throughput exceeding 100 k images per second. We also show in situ training below 10 s per epoch for the full encoder–decoder model as would be relevant for streaming and adaptive real-time data production at our nation’s scientific light sources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exact and efficient hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm for accelerated Bayesian inference of gene expression models from snapshots of single-cell transcripts

Single cells exhibit a significant amount of variability in transcript levels, which arises from slow, stochastic transitions between gene expression states. Elucidating the nature of these states and understanding how transition rates are affected by different regulatory mechanisms require state-of-the-art methods to infer underlying models of gene expression from single cell data. A Bayesian approach to statistical inference is the most suitable method for model selection and uncertainty quantification of kinetic parameters using small data sets. However, this approach is impractical because current algorithms are too slow to handle typical models of gene expression. To solve this problem, we first show that time-dependent mRNA distributions of discrete-state models of gene expression are dynamic Poisson mixtures, whose mixing kernels are characterized by a piecewise deterministic Markov process. Here, we combined this analytical result with a kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm to create a hybrid numerical method that accelerates the calculation of time-dependent mRNA distributions by 1000-fold compared to current methods. We then integrated the hybrid algorithm into an existing Monte Carlo sampler to estimate the Bayesian posterior distribution of many different, competing models in a reasonable amount of time. We demonstrate that kinetic parameters can be reasonably constrained for modestly sampled data sets if the model is known a priori. If there are many competing models, Bayesian evidence can rigorously quantify the likelihood of a model relative to other models from the data. We demonstrate that Bayesian evidence selects the true model and outperforms approximate metrics typically used for model selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Guided Synthesis of Flash Graphene

Advances in nanoscience have enabled the synthesis of nanomaterials, such as graphene, from low-value or waste materials through flash Joule heating. Though this capability is promising, the complex and entangled variables that govern nanocrystal formation in the Joule heating process remain poorly understood. In this work, machine learning (ML) models are constructed to explore the factors that drive the transformation of amorphous carbon into graphene nanocrystals during flash Joule heating. An XGBoost regression model of crystallinity achieves an r 2 score of 0.8051 ± 0.054. Feature importance assays and decision trees extracted from these models reveal key considerations in the selection of starting materials and the role of stochastic current fluctuations in flash Joule heating synthesis. Furthermore, partial dependence analyses demonstrate the importance of charge and current density as predictors of crystallinity, implying a progression from reaction-limited to diffusion-limited kinetics as flash Joule heating parameters change. Finally, a practical application of the ML models is shown by using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms to automatically improve bulk crystallinity over many Joule heating reactions. Furthermore, these results illustrate the power of ML as a tool to analyze complex nanomanufacturing processes and enable the synthesis of 2D crystals with desirable properties by flash Joule heating.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1978

Stochastic inverse problem in the radiation of noise

The reported investigation is concerned with a stochastic inverse radiation problem in a uniform medium. The problem is illustrated with the aid of a simple model consisting of an array of point sources. The entropy functional is chosen to be the structural functional in determining the source distribution. A general theory for the stochastic inverse problem is introduced. It is shown that the general procedure yields the methods of the Lagrangian multiplier, when the structural and residual functionals are specialized. Tihonov's regularization and a method related to generalized or pseudoinverses are also obtained. Examples considered for purposes of illustration are related to a continuous source with the least noise intensity, a continuous source with a potential, and an axisymmetric line source.

Chow, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Fuel injector: Air swirl characterization aerothermal modeling, phase 2, volume 1

A well integrated experimental/analytical investigation was conducted to provide benchmark quality relevant to a prefilming type airblast fuel nozzle and its interaction with the combustor dome air swirler. The experimental investigation included a systematic study of both single-phase flows that involved single and twin co-axial jets with and without swirl. A two-component Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDPA) was used to document the interaction of single and co-axial air jets with glass beads that simulate nonevaporating spray and simultaneously avoid the complexities associated with fuel atomization processes and attendant issues about the specification of relevant boundary conditions. The interaction of jets with methanol spray produced by practical airblast nozzle was also documented in the spatial domain of practical interest. Model assessment activities included the use of three turbulence models (k-epsilon, algebraic second moment (ASM), and differential second moment (DSM)) for the carrier phase, deterministic or stochastic Lagrangian treatment of the dispersed phase, and advanced numerical schemes. Although qualitatively good comparison with data was obtained for most of the cases investigated, the model deficiencies in regard to modeled dissipation rate transport equation, single length scale, pressure-strain correlation, and other critical closure issues need to be resolved before one can achieve the degree of accuracy required to analytically design combustion systems.

Nikjooy, M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Fuel Injector: Air swirl characterization aerothermal modeling, phase 2, volume 2

A well integrated experimental/analytical investigation was conducted to provide benchmark quality data relevant to prefilming type airblast fuel nozzle and its interaction with combustor dome air swirler. The experimental investigation included a systematic study of both single-phase flows that involved single and twin co-axial jets with and without swirl. A two-component Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDPA) equipment was used to document the interaction of single and co-axial air jets with glass beads that simulate nonevaporating spray and simultaneously avoid the complexities associated with fuel atomization processes and attendant issues about the specification of relevant boundary conditions. The interaction of jets with methanol spray produced by practical airblast nozzle was also documented in the spatial domain of practical interest. Model assessment activities included the use of three turbulence models (k-epsilon, algebraic second moment (ASM) and differential second moment (DSM)) for the carrier phase, deterministic or stochastic Lagrangian treatment of the dispersed phase, and advanced numerical schemes. Although qualitatively good comparison with data was obtained for most of the cases investigated, the model deficiencies in regard to modeled dissipation rate transport equation, single length scale, pressure-strain correlation, and other critical closure issues need to be resolved before one can achieve the degree of accuracy required to analytically design combustion systems.

Nikjooy, M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 2. Sensitivities and Comparison to Observations

Abstract This is the second part of the description and validation of the coupling of a warm‐rain microphysics scheme to a stochastic multi‐plume eddy‐diffusivity/mass‐flux parameterization. Part 1 provides the model description and initial validation of the parameterization in a single column model (SCM) against large eddy simulations. This manuscript provides additional comparisons against satellite observations of 500 unique simulation cases, an analysis of model parameter‐based sensitivities in those 500 cases, and an evaluation of the idealized LES case study paradigm for parameterization development. The SCM is forced by a weather reanalysis in the subtropical northeast Pacific region characterized by the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus cloud transition. 18 scalar outputs are examined to identify the sensitivities to 22 of the model's parameters. The model is highly sensitive to parameters that determine the behavior of convective plumes, which collectively lead to the most sensitivity in 13 of the 18 outputs. Only a few parameters contribute sensitivities that are not highly correlated with those of other parameters. While forcing the model with two canonical field campaign cases results in similar picture of which parameters lead to high sensitivity in model outputs, the sensitivity magnitudes can be overestimated compared to when the model is forced by weather reanalyzes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Position-dependent Voronoi probability distribution functions for matter and halos

Here, we measure the Voronoi density probability distribution function (PDF) for both dark matter and halos in N-body simulations. For the dark matter, Voronoi densities represent the matter density field smoothed on a uniform mass scale, which approximates the Lagrangian density field. For halos, the Voronoi densities contain information about the local environment of each halo. We measure the halo virial masses, the total amount of dark matter within each halo Voronoi cell, and the halo Voronoi cell volumes, and we show how halo abundances depend on these three quantities. We then study the position-dependent Voronoi density PDF, measured within finite subregions of the Universe, using separate universe simulations. We demonstrate that the spatial variation of the position-dependent PDF is due to large-scale density fluctuations, indicating that the position-dependent PDF is a biased tracer of large-scale structure. We measure this bias for the dark matter, and interpret it as the bias of regions of the Lagrangian density field that are selected based on density. For the halos, this bias can be interpreted as a form of assembly bias. We present the mapping from late-time to early-time Voronoi density for each simulation dark matter particle, which is highly stochastic. We compare the median of this stochastic map with spherical collapse calculations and discuss challenges involved in modeling the evolution of the density field on these scales.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single-pass Cr:ZnSe amplifier for broadband infrared undulator radiation

An amplifier based on a highly-doped chromium zinc-selenide (Cr:ZnSe) crystal is proposed to increase the pulse energy emitted by an electron bunch after it passes through an undulator magnet. The primary motivation is a possible use of the amplified undulator radiation emitted by a beam circulating in a particle accelerator storage ring to increase the particle beam’s phase-space density—a technique dubbed optical stochastic cooling (OSC). This paper uses a simple four energy level model to estimate the single-pass gain of Cr:ZnSe and presents numerical calculations combined with wave-optics simulations of undulator radiation to estimate the expected properties of the amplified undulator wave-packet.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS1974

State equations for an n-body spacecraft

Considerable attention, in the open literature, is being focused on the problem of developing a suitable set of deterministic dynamical equations for a complex spacecraft. The present paper addresses the problem of determining a set of state equations for an n-body spacecraft. The approach used in obtaining the state equations involves the application and interpretation of advanced dynamical principles. This set of state equations can be effectively used in the development of a stochastic controller for the spacecraft (in this latter development, the deterministic model developed in the present paper will be appropriately corrupted by plant noise). The major effort in the paper revolves around the determination of the plant matrices and the specification of the state vector and the control vector.

Larson, V.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Navigation capability for an ion drive rendezvous with Halley's Comet

Navigation accuracies are presented for a 1985 rendezvous with Halley's Comet using an ion propulsion system. Individual error sources are examined to determine their relative contributions to final delivery errors. The sensitivity of delivery accuracy to stochastic thrust variations is demonstrated by considering a baseline thrust error model and a more benign alternative model. Also studied are the effects of increased comet ephemeris uncertainties and of operational time delays between the orbit determination process and the guidance implementation.

Thornton, C. L.↗