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NASA NTRS1986

Evolution of the luminosity function of extragalactic objects

A nonparametric procedure for determining the evolution of the luminosity function (LF) of extragalactic objects is described. The following steps are required: (1) selection of complete samples with known observational selection effects, (2) choice of a cosmological model, (3) statistical analysis of the sample and determination of the evolution of the luminosity function, and (4) the use of the luminosity function for the determination of the formation rate and the physical evolution of the objects. When the present technique is applied to a sample of optically selected quasars with redshifts less than two, it is shown that the LF evolves more strongly for higher luminosities, indicating a larger quasar activity at earlier epochs and a more rapid evolution of the objects during their higher luminosity phases.

Petrosian, V.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An improved approach for flight readiness assessment

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Monitoring issues from a modeling perspective

Recognition that earth's climate and biogeophysical conditions are likely changing due to human activities has led to a heightened awareness of the need for improved long-term global monitoring. The present long-term measurement efforts tend to be spotty in space, inadequately calibrated in time, and internally inconsistent with respect to other instruments and measured quantities. In some cases, such as most of the biosphere, most chemicals, and much of the ocean, even a minimal monitoring program is not available. Recently, it has become painfully evident that emerging global change issues demand information and insights that the present global monitoring system simply cannot supply. This is because a monitoring system must provide much more than a statement of change at a given level of statistical confidence. It must describe changes in diverse parts of the entire earth system on regional to global scales. It must be able to provide enough input to allow an integrated physical characterization of the changes that have occurred. Finally, it must allow a separation of the observed changes into their natural and anthropogenic parts. The enormous policy significance of global change virtually guarantees an unprecedented level of scrutiny of the changes in the earth system and why they are happening. These pressures create a number of emerging challenges and opportunities. For example, they will require a growing partnership between the observational programs and the theory/modeling community. Without this partnership, the scientific community will likely fall short in the monitoring effort. The monitoring challenge before us is not to solve the problem now, but rather to set appropriate actions in motion so as to create the required framework for solution. Each individual piece needs to establish its role in the large problem and how the required interactions are to take place. Below, we emphasize some of the needs and opportunities that could and should be addressed through participation by the theoreticians and modelers in the global change monitoring effort.

Mahlman, Jerry D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

LWS Proposal to Provide Scientific Guidance and Modeling Support for the Ionospheric Mapping Mission

A data assimilation system for specifying the thermospheric density has been developed over the last several years. This system ingests GRACE/CHAMP-type in situ as well as SSULI/SSUSI remote sensing observations while making use of a physical model, the Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (CTIM) (Fuller-Rowel1 et al., 1996). The Kalman filter was implemented as the backbone to the data assimilation system, which provides a statistically 'best' estimate as well as an estimate of the error in its state. The system was tested using a simulated thermosphere and observations. CHAMP data were then used to provide the system with a real data source. The results of this study are herein.

Richmond, Arthur D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation and Modeling of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Favorable Pressure Gradients due to Streamline Curvature

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of favorable-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers are presented for a nominal freestream Mach number of 5, with the objective of assessing the limitations of the currently available Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models.The wall geometry and flow conditions of the DNS are representative of the experimental data for a Mach 4.9 turbulent boundary layer that was tested on a two-dimensional planar convexwall model in the high-speed blow-down wind tunnel located at the National Aerothermochemistry Laboratory at Texas A&M University. The favorable pressure gradient is induced bythe streamwise surface curvature. The DNS results will be compared with experimental measurements and RANS computations for the same flow conditions and wall geometry. The DNS datasets will also be analyzed to provide an improved physical understanding of hypersonic boundary-layer turbulence subject to mechanical nonequilibrium, including the validity of Morkovin’s hypothesis and the various available compressibility transformations, as well as to obtain turbulence statistics that are relevant to RANS modeling, including the distribution ofeddy viscosity, the budgets of turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses, and the velocity-temperature correlations. The RANS predictions will be obtained by using both the commonly used one- and two-equation models that assume a constant turbulent Prandtl number and an algebraic, variable Prandtl number model for the turbulent energy flux.

turbulent boundary layers↗

DOE OSTI2020

Proposed Analytical Methods for Determining Filter Media Properties

High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, commonly used in nuclear filtration applications, are an integral part of the waste management processes in nuclear plants. HEPA filters are 99.97% efficient filtration devices characterized by their high resistance to air flow, or pressure drop. From theoretical models, the initial pressure drop across a clean filter is proven to be a function of the filter media fiber diameters and porosity of the media. These filter properties are relatively difficult to obtain with traditional manual methods; therefore, there is a need to develop analytical methods to find the fiber diameter and porosity to determine the pressure drop. Typically, these values can be found by substituting a calculated representative value based upon measured values, such as equivalent fiber diameter based upon a clean pressure drop. However, these values may also be directly recorded and measured by incorporating Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) image analysis and other measurement methods to analyze the filter media and determine its physical properties without the need for media testing. DiameterJ, an open source Java plug-in, used with ImageJ, can process images of filter media taken by an SEM to find statistical data such as mean fiber diameter and porosity. To produce the raw data, SEM images of two filter media type samples are taken and segmented in DiameterJ using the traditional and statistical region merging segmentation algorithms. Manual segmentation is necessary after the initial segmentation by the algorithms as the images tend to be too complex for the algorithms to output with the necessary accuracy. However, complications exist in the manual segmentation process as these methods can be time intensive and prone to the individual bias of the user. This in turn can skew the final mean fiber diameter result, and lead to either an over or under prediction of the pressure drop. It was also discovered that the porosity data produced by DiameterJ is inaccurate, as the SEM analyzes the three-dimensional filter media by projecting its geometry onto a plane and analyzing it as a two-dimensional binary image. Thus, the porosity is artificially inflated through the segmentation process, rendering this result incorrect. Alternatively, density determination, gravimetric analysis, and thickness testing of the filter media is collectively used to determine the filter fiber porosity. Together, the SEM image analysis and analytical lab methods produce results through direct measurements which allow for the prediction of the initial pressure drop from clean filter media without the need for prior media testing to collect pressure data. By improving upon this proposed analytical method in the future, there is potential to streamline the process of finding these filter properties into a more direct methodology for determining the pressure drop across HEPA filters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of detection rate changes and correlations on random-coincidence background measurements

Coincidence detection of multiple particles emitted during an experiment can yield a new depth of understanding of the underlying process under study. However, the probability of detecting particles that are generated from the same physical event within a given coincidence time window is generally much lower than that of detecting particles that appear in the same coincidence time window, but were not created from the same physical event, and are therefore detected randomly in coincidence with each other. Thus, accurate and precise methods of measuring this random-coincidence background are essential for a wide variety of fields of science. A method to determine this background directly using the data themselves without any additional experimental run time or fake signals introduced in the data was recently established (O’Donnell, 2016). This method yields a statistical uncertainty on the random-coincidence background that is orders of magnitude smaller than that of the true coincidence data, though the potential for systematic errors of backgrounds from this method was never explored. In this work, we discuss common varieties of correlated and uncorrelated changes in the detection rates of each particle detected in an experiment. Here we demonstrate here that a correlation between particle detection rates from, for example, an incident particle beam that initiates a physical process of interest, creates systematic errors in the random-coincidence background measurement. We also discuss the impact of a variety of other realistic scenarios for rate changes in experiments. Lastly, a method is introduced to correct for errors in the random-coincidence background from any source, yielding an optimization between statistical precision and eliminating potential lingering systematic errors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2008

Algorithms for Spectral Decomposition with Applications to Optical Plume Anomaly Detection

The analysis of spectral signals for features that represent physical phenomenon is ubiquitous in the science and engineering communities. There are two main approaches that can be taken to extract relevant features from these high-dimensional data streams. The first set of approaches relies on extracting features using a physics-based paradigm where the underlying physical mechanism that generates the spectra is used to infer the most important features in the data stream. We focus on a complementary methodology that uses a data-driven technique that is informed by the underlying physics but also has the ability to adapt to unmodeled system attributes and dynamics. We discuss the following four algorithms: Spectral Decomposition Algorithm (SDA), Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and compare their performance on a spectral emulator which we use to generate artificial data with known statistical properties. This spectral emulator mimics the real-world phenomena arising from the plume of the space shuttle main engine and can be used to validate the results that arise from various spectral decomposition algorithms and is very useful for situations where real-world systems have very low probabilities of fault or failure. Our results indicate that methods like SDA and NMF provide a straightforward way of incorporating prior physical knowledge while NMF with a tuning mechanism can give superior performance on some tests. We demonstrate these algorithms to detect potential system-health issues on data from a spectral emulator with tunable health parameters.

Srivastava, Askok N.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility of Correlated Extensive Air Shower Detection with a Distributed Cosmic-Ray Network

We explore the sensitivity offered by a global network of cosmic-ray detectors to a novel, unobserved phenomenon: widely separated simultaneous extended air showers. Existing localized observatories work independently to observe individual showers, offering insight into the source and nature of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays. However no current observatory is large enough to provide sensitivity to anticipated processes such as the Gerasimova–Zatsepin effect or potential new physics that generate simultaneous air showers separated by hundreds to thousands of kilometers. A global network of consumer electronics (the Cosmic Rays Found In Smartphones (CRAYFIS) experiment), may provide a novel opportunity for observation of such phenomena. Two user scenarios are explored. In the first, with maximal user adoption, we find that statistically significant discoveries of spatially separated but coincident showers are possible within a couple years. In the second, more practical adoption model with 10 6 active devices, we find a worldwide CRAYFIS to be sensitive to novel "burst" phenomena where many simultaneous extensive air showers (EAS) occur at once.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Latent Dynamics to Meaningful Representations

While representation learning has been central to the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, a key problem remains in making the learnt representations meaningful. For this the typical approach is to regularize the learned representation through prior probability distributions. However such priors are usually unavailable or are ad hoc. To deal with this, recent efforts have shifted towards leveraging the insights from physical principles to guide the learning process. In this spirit, we propose a purely dynamics-constrained representation learning framework. Instead of relying on predefined probabilities, we restrict the latent representation to follow overdamped Langevin dynamics with a learnable transition density — a prior driven by statistical mechanics. We show this is a more natural constraint for representation learning in stochastic dynamical systems, with the crucial ability to uniquely identify the ground truth representation. We validate our framework for different systems including a real-world fluorescent DNA movie dataset. Here, we show that our algorithm can uniquely identify orthogonal, isometric and meaningful latent representations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Selenium Doping in Zinc Telluride from First Principles

We report point defects and compensation in zinc telluride have been subjects of study for several decades due to the compound’s scientific/technological applications. Despite this, there remains some disagreement in the literature as to the fine details of its defect chemistry. Recently, it has also come under renewed interest due to the emerging Cd( 1–x )Zn x Te( 1–y )Se y material family, used in nuclear radiation detector applications. In this article, we use state-of-the-art computational tools to re-examine the native defect chemistry of ZnTe and explore how it changes upon addition of selenium using density functional theory with screened hybrid exchange–correlation functionals, thermochemical models of the equilibration environment, and statistical mechanics models of the point defect ensemble.

II-VI semiconductors↗

DOE OSTI2020

A method to test the coupling strength of the linear and nonlinear contributions to higher-order flow harmonics via event shape engineering

A Multi-Phase Transport (AMPT) model is used to study the efficacy of shape-engineered events to delineate the degree of coupling between the linear and nonlinear contributions to the higher-order flow harmonics v 4 and v 5 . Here, the study shows that the nonlinear contributions are strongly shape-dependent while the linear contributions are shape-independent, indicating little if any, coupling between the linear and nonlinear flow coefficients. The experimental verification of such patterns could be an invaluable tool for robust extraction of the linear and mode-coupled flow coefficients, especially for beam energies where the charged particle multiplicity and the event statistics precludes the use of current methods to establish the coupling strength.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relativistic Alfvén Turbulence at Kinetic Scales

Abstract In a strongly magnetized, magnetically dominated relativistic plasma, Alfvénic turbulence can extend to scales much smaller than the particle inertial scales. It leads to an energy cascade somewhat analogous to inertial- or kinetic-Alfvén turbulent cascades existing in nonrelativistic space and astrophysical plasmas. Based on phenomenological modeling and particle-in-cell numerical simulations, we propose that the energy spectrum of such relativistic kinetic-scale Alfvénic turbulence is close to k −3 or slightly steeper than that due to intermittency corrections or Landau damping. We note the analogy of this spectrum with the Kraichnan spectrum corresponding to the enstrophy cascade in 2D incompressible fluid turbulence. Such turbulence strongly energizes particles in the direction parallel to the background magnetic field, leading to nearly one-dimensional particle momentum distributions. We find that these distributions have universal log-normal statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Fluid Physics Under a Stochastic Acceleration Field

The research summarized in this report has involved a combined theoretical and computational study of fluid flow that results from the random acceleration environment present onboard space orbiters, also known as g-jitter. We have focused on a statistical description of the observed g-jitter, on the flows that such an acceleration field can induce in a number of experimental configurations of interest, and on extending previously developed methodology to boundary layer flows. Narrow band noise has been shown to describe many of the features of acceleration data collected during space missions. The scale of baroclinically induced flows when the driving acceleration is random is not given by the Rayleigh number. Spatially uniform g-jitter induces additional hydrodynamic forces among suspended particles in incompressible fluids. Stochastic modulation of the control parameter shifts the location of the onset of an oscillatory instability. Random vibration of solid boundaries leads to separation of boundary layers. Steady streaming ahead of a modulated solid-melt interface enhances solute transport, and modifies the stability boundaries of a planar front.

Vinals, Jorge↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Physical Parameters of Clumps Associated with Class I Methanol Masers

We present a study of the association between class I methanol masers and cold dust clumps from the APEX Telescope Large Area Survey of the Galaxy (ATLASGAL) survey. It was found that almost 100% of class I methanol masers are associated with objects listed in the ATLASGAL compact source catalog. We find a statistically significant difference in the flux density, luminosity, number and column density, and temperature distributions of ATLASGAL sources associated with 95/44 GHz methanol masers compared with those ATLASGAL sources devoid of 95 GHz methanol masers. The masers tend to arise in clumps with higher densities, luminosities, and temperatures compared with both the full sample of ATLASGAL clumps, as well as the sample of ATLASGAL sources that were cross-matched with positions previously searched for methanol masers but with no detections. Comparison between the peak position of ATLASGAL clumps and the interferometric positions of the associated class I and II methanol masers reveals that class I masers are generally located at larger physical distances from the peak submillimeter emission than class II masers. We conclude that the tight association between ATLASGAL sources and class I methanol masers may be used as a link toward understanding the conditions of the pumping of these masers and evolutionary stages at which they appear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗