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NASA NTRS2019

How Well Does NASA GEOS Model Perform in Simulating Dust Deposition into the Tropical Atlantic Ocean?

Massive dust emitted from North Africa can transport long distances across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Americas. Dust deposition along the transit adds microorganisms and essential nutrients to marine ecosystem, which has important implications for biogeochemical cycle and climate. However, assessing the dust-ecosystemclimate interactions has been hindered in part by the paucity of dust deposition measurements and large uncertainties associated with oversimplified representations of dust processes in current models. We have recently produced a unique dataset of seasonal dust deposition flux and dust loss frequency into the tropical Atlantic Ocean at a nominal resolution of 200 km x 500 km by using the decade-long (2007-2016) record of aerosol three-dimensional distribution from four satellite sensors, namely CALIOP, MODIS, MISR, and IASI. On the basis of the ten-year average, the yearly dust deposition into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated at 98-153 Tg. The dust deposition shows large spatial and temporal (on seasonal and interannual scale) variability. The satellite observations also yield an estimate of annual mean dust loss frequency of 0.052 ~ 0.078 d-1, a useful diagnostic that makes it possible to disentangle the dust transport and removal processes from the dust emissions when identifying the major factors contributing to the uncertainties and biases in the model simulated dust deposition. In this study, we use the dataset along with in situ and remote sensing observations to assess how well NASA GEOS model performs in simulating trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition. We found that the GEOS modeling of dust deposition falls within the range of satellite-based estimates. However, this reasonable agreement in dust deposition is a compensation of the model's underestimate of dust emissions and overestimate of dust removal efficiency. Further, the overestimate of dust removal efficiency results largely from the model's overestimate of rainfall rate. Our results provide insights into the model's deficiencies at process level, which could better guide model improvements.

Yu, Hongbin↗

NASA NTRS2020

The bioclimatic extent and pattern of the cold edge of the boreal forest: the circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone

Current configurations of forest structure at the cold edge of the boreal may help understand the future of ecosystem functioning in high northern latitudes. The circumpolar biome boundary at the boreal (taiga) forest and tundra interface is an ecological transition zone (taiga-tundra ecotone; TTE) experiencing changes that affect its forest structure. We accounted for the TTE's horizontal forest structure with an estimate of its extent and pattern as represented by tree canopy cover (TCC). We quantified TCC patterns with an algorithm that describes its spatial gradient, and summarized landscape patterns of structure to represent heterogeneity, capturing abrupt, diffuse, and uniform forest at mesoscales. We used these landscape patterns to constrain the spatial extent of sparse and open canopy forest, and non-forest (forest-adjacent) edge that defines the TTE extent. The resulting map of the TTE extent is based on forest structure spatial patterns resolved at 30 m, highlights structural variability across landscapes, and helps distinguish tundra from boreal domains. We classified 14 594 landscapes as those associated with the TTE within a circumpolar bioclimatic envelope (11.575 million km2), where 44.83% of the area of these landscapes were forest and non-forest edge, yet 36.43% contributed to the TTE extent. We report the overall extent of the TTE (3.032 million km2) across North America and Greenland (53%), and Eurasia (47%), where 0.697 million km2 is non-forest edge, 0.549 million km2 is sparse forest, and 1.787 million km2 is open canopy forest. Diffuse forest landscapes dominate the TTE (79%), and abrupt landscapes (~19%) indicate portions of the TTE where sparse forest and non-forest edge are the prevailing structural patterns. This account of the TTE quantifies the area of the cold edge of the boreal forest where previous global estimates show high discrepancies, and can help target monitoring and prediction of circumpolar dynamics.

Paul M Montesano↗

NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variations of TOA Albedo over the Arctic, Antarctic and Tibetan Plateau in 2000–2019

Recent changes in Earth’s climate system have significantly affected the radiation budget and its year-to-year variations at top of the atmosphere (TOA). Observing high-latitude TOA fluxes is still challenging from space, because spatial inhomogeneity of surface/atmospheric radiative processes and spectral variability can reflect sunlight very differently. In this study we analyze the 20-year TOA flux and albedo data from CERES and MISR over the Arctic, the Antarctic, and Tibetan Plateau (TP), and found overall great consistency in the TOA albedo trend and interannual variations. The observations reveal a lagged correlation between the Arctic and subarctic albedo fluctuations. The observed year-to-year variations are further used to evaluate the reanalysis data, which exhibit substantial shortcomings in representing the polar TOA flux variability. The observed Arctic flux variations are highly correlated with cloud fraction (CF), except in the regions where CF > 90% or where the surface is covered by ice. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first five EOFs can account for ~50% of the Arctic TOA variance, whereas the correlation with climate indices suggests that Sea Ice Extent (SIE), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 55°N–65°N cloudiness are the most influential processes in driving the TOA flux variabilities.

interannual variations↗

NASA NTRS2023

Heliocentric Distance and Solar Activity Dependence of Sustained Quasi-radial Interplanetary Magnetic Field Occurrence

Planets close to their stars experience an interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that is dominantly quasi-radial. Our solar system serves as a laboratory to study how the occurrence of quasi-radial IMF varies away from the star and under different stellar activities. Furthermore, on time and spatial scales relevant to magnetospheric physics, solar wind variability prevails in the form of structures generated both at the Sun and locally in the interplanetary space. The stationary Parker spiral model only approximates the large-scale structure of the IMF. Deviations from the Parker spiral often result in strongly radial magnetic fields that give rise to kinetic foreshock turbulence, which in turn can impact planetary magnetospheres. The relative significance of this type of interaction can be estimated statistically based on the occurrence rate of cases where the IMF is directed along the radial direction, leading to the entire day-side magnetosphere being downstream of the ion foreshock. We use observations covering radial distances from 0.1 to 10 au and more than 2 solar cycles to quantify the prevalence of radial IMFs throughout the heliosphere. Near Earth's orbit, it is found that the occurrence rates of quasi-radial and southward IMF orientations are similar, and that the Pearson correlation coefficient is ${{ \mathcal R }}_{{xy}}\sim -0.7$ calculated between quasi-radial IMF occurrence rate and solar activity. A negative correlation is demonstrated for radial distances extending to at least Mars but not to Saturn.

Brandon L Burkholder↗

NASA NTRS2024

Central Park Ecological Conservation: Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with NASA Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This paper discusses an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology for a given year. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation is occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

Central Park↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This project is an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate a multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation are occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

John Hocknell↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Magnification Faraday Rotation Imaging and Analysis of X-pinch Implosion Dynamics

An X-pinch load driven by an intense current pulse (>100 kA in ~100 ns) can result in the formation of a small radius, runaway compressional micro-pinch. A micro-pinch is characterized by a hot (>1 keV), current-driven (>100 kA), high-density plasma column (near solid density) with a small neck diameter (1–10 μm), a short axial extent (<1 mm), and a short duration (.1 ns). With material pressures often well into the multi-Mbar regime, a micro-pinch plasma often radiates an intense, sub-ns burst of sub-keV to multi-keV x-rays. A low-density coronal plasma immediately surrounding the dense plasma neck could potentially shunt current away from the neck and thus reduce the magnetic drive pressure applied to the neck. To study the current distribution in the coronal plasma throughout the implosion process, a Faraday rotation imaging diagnostic (1064 nm) capable of producing simultaneous high-magnification polarimetric and interferometric images has been developed for the 1-MA, 100-ns MAIZE facility at the University of Michigan. Designed with a variable magnification (1–10×), this diagnostic achieves a spatial resolution of approximately 35 μm, which is useful for resolving the ~100-μm-scale coronal plasma region immediately surrounding the dense core. Combined with the corresponding interferogram, which provides the radial density distribution in the low-density coronal plasma, the measured rotation can be used to diagnose the delivery of the driver current, and thus the magnetic drive pressure, to the micro-pinch plasma as it approaches minimal radius. Using this technique on MAIZE, we have measured

Dowhan, G. V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Condition-Based Maintenance of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Power Plant using Machine Learning and Statistical Tools

Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

GPS-Based Gamma Survey for Characterizing and Decommissioning NORM Sites - 20389

Gamma survey techniques are an especially powerful decommissioning tool at naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) sites due to both the low cost to obtain data over a large spatial scale and the abundance of gamma emitters in the uranium and thorium decay series. Gamma surveys are executed by coupling a detector - most often a sodium iodide crystal - to a global positioning system (GPS), then reporting a location and gross gamma reading coincidentally to a data logger. Systems may be carried by workers or mounted to a car, all-terrain vehicle, or unmanned aerial system (UAS). The resulting data set provides a high-resolution but low precision map of the gamma radiation field over the area surveyed. Frequently this map is also correlated to soil concentrations of NORM radionuclides (most often, Ra-226) and/or exposure rate. Gamma survey parameters such as movement speed, transect spacing, and data logging frequency define the spatial resolution of the resulting surface, and can be optimized depending on the desired survey sensitivity. This paper examines gamma survey as a tool for decommissioning NORM sites and provides an overview of current gamma survey technology designed to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the decommissioning process. Topics to be discussed in the paper include: - An overview of gamma survey systems, and the utility of different delivery vehicles depending on desired cost, desired spatial resolution, and site topography. - The influence of physical detector characteristics on detection sensitivity and survey planning. - The tradeoff between high-resolution and large spatial extent, but inherently uncertain data, and low-resolution, low spatial extent, but highly certain data, as well as the specific utility of each of these types of data during NORM facility decommissioning. - Confounding variables that may limit the utility of gamma survey at some sites (e.g., radon gas and spatial heterogeneity / hot spots), and methods to plan for and control these conditions. Results show that the confounding variables, such as radon and data output can greatly influence the overall data quality associated with the decommissioning process. In addition, the use of real-time and aerial survey platforms provides a method for ensuring proper spatial extent of the data. When applied thoughtfully, gamma survey is a powerful tool for detecting NORM radionuclides in the environment and a cost-effective technique for identifying areas requiring remediation. However, entities performing or using gamma survey as a decommissioning tool must be aware of both its advantages and its limitations before basing remediation or regulatory action on gamma survey results. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Excitation of Earth Rotation Variations "Observed" by Time-Variable Gravity

Time variable gravity measurements have been made over the past two decades using the space geodetic technique of satellite laser ranging, and more recently by the GRACE satellite mission with improved spatial resolutions. The degree-2 harmonic components of the time-variable gravity contain important information about the Earth s length-of-day and polar motion excitation functions, in a way independent to the traditional "direct" Earth rotation measurements made by, for example, the very-long-baseline interferometry and GPS. In particular, the (degree=2, order= 1) components give the mass term of the polar motion excitation; the (2,O) component, under certain mass conservation conditions, gives the mass term of the length-of-day excitation. Combining these with yet another independent source of angular momentum estimation calculated from global geophysical fluid models (for example the atmospheric angular momentum, in both mass and motion terms), in principle can lead to new insights into the dynamics, particularly the role or the lack thereof of the cores, in the excitation processes of the Earth rotation variations.

Chao, Ben F.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Continental Patterns of Bird Migration Linked to Climate Variability

For nearly 100 years, avian migration studies have divided North America into three or four primary flyways, at times based on subjective approaches or just for convenience. Those studies often fail to adequately reflect a critical characterization of migration —phenology. This shortcoming has been partly due to the lack of reliable continental-scale data, a gap filled by our current study. Here, we leveraged unique radar-based data quantifying migration phenology and used an objective regionalization approach to revisit the traditional spatial framework. Consequently, we identified two regions with distinct inter annual variability of spring migration across the contiguous U.S. This new data-driven framework has enabled us to explore the climatic cues affecting the inter annual variability of migration phenology, “specific to each region” across North America. For example, our “two-region” approach allowed us to identify an east-west dipole pattern in migratory behavior linked to atmospheric Ross by waves. Also, we revealed a low-frequency variability in migration movements over the western U.S. that is inversely related with temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our spatial platform would facilitate future work on better understanding the mechanisms responsible for broad-scale migration phenology and its potential future changes.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil Moisture Buffers the Impact of Precipitation Variability on Ecosystem Productivity

Water availability governs ecosystem productivity, yet estimates of vegetation sensitivity to water can differ greatly depending on whether the sensitivity is examined spatially or temporally. In particular, the spatial sensitivity is often reported to be much stronger than temporal sensitivities, leading to highly uncertain projections of ecosystem responses to future climate change when using space-for-time substitution. The large difference between spatial and temporal sensitivities remains unexplained. Prior research, however, primarily relied on precipitation as the water availability proxy, whereas vegetation responds to soil moisture. Here, we combined satellite estimates of vegetation productivity with soil moisture data across water-limited ecosystems of the continental United States (CONUS) to identify a convergent sensitivity of productivity to water availability. Using precipitation, we show that temporal sensitivity is 66% lower than spatial sensitivity overall. Our analysis identified the cause of the difference to be primarily driven by the seasonal variability of water availability, rooting depth, and soil properties. When using soil moisture instead of precipitation, we observed widespread convergence in the spatial and temporal sensitivities—that is, the two sensitivities became much more similar in magnitude across all water-limited ecosystems within CONUS. These results show that overlooking soil hydrology can inflate perceived discrepancies between spatial and temporal vegetation sensitivities, leading to biased projections of ecosystem dynamics under future hydro-climatic change.

Wang, Huiqi [University of California, Berkeley, C↗

NASA NTRS2006

Comparisons of Temporal and Spatial Trends in the Spatially Complete Global Spectral Surface Albedos Products

Five years of spatially complete snow-free land surface albedo data have been prepared using high quality white-sky and black-sky land surface albedo observations (MOD43B3) from the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite platform. The data were generated using an updated ecosystem-dependent temporal interpolation technique. In this paper, we describe the refinements in the technique and the creation of a spatially complete snow-free five-year aggregate climatology product. This paper also describes an error analysis of the interpolation technique. The filled albedo products are examined through comparisons of temporal and spatial trends for pixels that have been filled versus pixels that have been retained in the original MOD43B3 values. The variability in the trends showcase how the filling technique maintains the pixel-level spatial, spectral, and temporal integrity of the MOD43B3 data. These comparisons are made for both a single-year of filled data, year 2002, and for the five-year aggregate climatology product.

Moody, Eric G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Neuroscience Investigations: An Overview of Studies Conducted

The neural processes that mediate human spatial orientation and adaptive changes occurring in response to the sensory rearrangement encountered during orbital flight are primarily studied through second and third order responses. In the Extended Duration Orbiter Medical Project (EDOMP) neuroscience investigations, the following were measured: (1) eye movements during acquisition of either static or moving visual targets, (2) postural and locomotor responses provoked by unexpected movement of the support surface, changes in the interaction of visual, proprioceptive, and vestibular information, changes in the major postural muscles via descending pathways, or changes in locomotor pathways, and (3) verbal reports of perceived self-orientation and self-motion which enhance and complement conclusions drawn from the analysis of oculomotor, postural, and locomotor responses. In spaceflight operations, spatial orientation can be defined as situational awareness, where crew member perception of attitude, position, or motion of the spacecraft or other objects in three-dimensional space, including orientation of one's own body, is congruent with actual physical events. Perception of spatial orientation is determined by integrating information from several sensory modalities. This involves higher levels of processing within the central nervous system that control eye movements, locomotion, and stable posture. Spaceflight operational problems occur when responses to the incorrectly perceived spatial orientation are compensatory in nature. Neuroscience investigations were conducted in conjunction with U. S. Space Shuttle flights to evaluate possible changes in the ability of an astronaut to land the Shuttle or effectively perform an emergency post-landing egress following microgravity adaptation during space flights of variable length. While the results of various sensory motor and spatial orientation tests could have an impact on future space flights, our knowledge of sensorimotor adaptation to spaceflight is limited, and the future application of effective countermeasures depends, in large part, on the results from appropriate neuroscience investigations. Therefore, the objective of the neuroscience investigations could have a negative effect on mission success. The Neuroscience Laboratory, Johnson Space Center (JSC), implemented three integrated Detailed Supplementary Objectives (DSO) designed to investigate spatial orientation and the associated compensatory responses as a part of the EDOMP. The four primary goals were (1) to establish a normative database of vestibular and associated sensory changes in response to spaceflight, (2) to determine the underlying etiology of neurovestibular and sensory motor changes associated with exposure to microgravity and the subsequent return to Earth, (3) to provide immediate feedback to spaceflight crews regarding potential countermeasures that could improve performance and safety during and after flight, and (4) to take under consideration appropriate designs for preflight, in-flight, and postflight countermeasures that could be implemented for future flights.

Reschke, Millard F.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Analysis and Design of Variable Stiffness Composite Cylinders

An investigation of the possible performance improvements of thin circular cylindrical shells through the use of the variable stiffness concept is presented. The variable stiffness concept implies that the stiffness parameters change spatially throughout the structure. This situation is achieved mainly through the use of curvilinear fibers within a fiber-reinforced composite laminate, though the possibility of thickness variations and discrete stiffening elements is also allowed. These three mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive laws for thin shells through the use of Classical Lamination Theory. The existence of stiffness variation within the structure warrants a formulation of the static equilibrium equations from the most basic principles. The governing equations include sufficient detail to correctly model several types of nonlinearity, including the formation of a nonlinear shell boundary layer as well as the Brazier effect due to nonlinear bending of long cylinders. Stress analysis and initial buckling estimates are formulated for a general variable stiffness cylinder. Results and comparisons for several simplifications of these highly complex governing equations are presented so that the ensuing numerical solutions are considered reliable and efficient enough for in-depth optimization studies. Four distinct cases of loading and stiffness variation are chosen to investigate possible areas of improvement that the variable stiffness concept may offer over traditional constant stiffness and/or stiffened structures. The initial investigation deals with the simplest solution for cylindrical shells in which all quantities are constant around the circumference of the cylinder. This axisymmetric case includes a stiffness variation exclusively in the axial direction, and the only pertinent loading scenarios include constant loads of axial compression, pressure, and torsion. The results for these cases indicate that little improvement over traditional laminates exists through the use of curvilinear fibers, mainly due to the presence of a weak link area within the stiffness variation that limits the ultimate load that the structure can withstand. Rigorous optimization studies reveal that even though slight increases in the critical loads can be produced for designs with an arbitrary variation of the fiber orientation angle, the improvements are not significant when compared to traditional design techniques that utilize ring stiffeners and frames. The second problem that is studied involves arbitrary loading of a cylinder with a stiffness variation that changes only in the circumferential direction. The end effects of the cylinder are ignored, so that the problem takes the form of an analysis of a cross-section for a short cylinder segment. Various load cases including axial compression, pressure, torsion, bending, and transverse shear forces are investigated. It is found that the most significant improvements in load-carrying capability exist for cases which involve loads that also vary around the circumference of the shell, namely bending and shear forces. The stiffness variation of the optimal designs contribute to the increased performance in two ways: lowering the stresses in the critical areas through redistribution of the stresses; and providing a relatively stiff region that alters the buckling behavior of the structure. These results lead to an in-depth optimization study involving weight optimization of a fuselage structure subjected to typical design constraints. Comparisons of the curvilinear fiber format to traditional stiffened structures constructed of isotropic and composite materials are included. It is found that standard variable stiffness designs are quite comparable in terms of weight and load-carrying capability yet offer the added advantage of tailorability of distinct regions of the structure that experience drastically different loading conditions. The last two problems presented in this work involve the nonlinear phenomenon of long tubes under bending. Though this scenario is not as applicable to fuselage structures as the previous problems, the mechanisms that produce the nonlinear effect are ideally suited to be controlled by the variable stiffness concept. This is due to the fact that the dominating influence for long cylinders under bending is the ovalization of the cross-section, which is governed mainly by the stiffness parameters of the cylindrical shell. Possible improvement of the critical buckling moments for these structures is investigated using either a circumferential or axial stiffness variation. For the circumferential case involving infinite length cylinders, it is found that slight improvements can be observed by designing structures that resist the cross-sectional deformation yet do not detract from the buckling resistance at the critical location. The results also indicate that buckling behavior is extremely dependent on cylinder length. This effect is most easily seen in the solution of finite length cylinders under bending that contain an axial stiffness variation. For these structures, the only mechanism that exhibits improved response are those that effectively shorten the length of the cylinder, thus reducing the cross-sectional deformation due to the forced restraint at the ends. It was found that the use of curvilinear fibers was not able to achieve this effect in sufficient degree to resist the deformation, but that ring stiffeners produced the desired response admirably. Thus, it is shown that the variable stiffness concept is most effective at improving the bending response of long cylinders through the use of a circumferential stiffness variation.

Tatting, Brian F.↗