Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “regression models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,531 records · Page 85
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of stacked ensemble machine learning for the detection of surrogate plutonium contamination in soil via LIBS

Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated increased utility for the quantification of lanthanide and actinide elements in atomic spectroscopy applications. This study implements laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the identification of plutonium surrogate material (CeO 2 ) in soil matrices by training supervised machine learning methods on the recorded spectral data. A bagged ensemble using Random Forest yields the highest sensitivity predictions with a detection limit of 0.015 wt.% CeO 2 . However, high precision in Ce content prediction required the use of a stacked ensemble regression, which provided the superlative Ce quantification model with an error of 0.107% and a detection limit of 0.022 wt.%. Furthermore, the high performance of the stacked ensemble demonstrates its potential to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of nuclear contaminant detection using field-deployable spectroscopic analyzers in real-world scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using machine learning to improve efficiency and accuracy of burnup measurements at PBR reactors [Slides]

The outline of the slides include: Motivations of the work; Modeling and simulation; Machine learning model; Results and comparison study with linear regression; and Conclusions. This work was done to help PBR designers and operators understand the burnup measurement better. We look forward to discussing the results in detail with industrial collaborators.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Open Call LDRD: Physically Informed Autoencoders for Galactic Redshift Regression

Physical constraints have been suggested to make neural network models more generalizable, act scientifically plausible, and be more data-efficient over unconstrained baselines. In this report, we present preliminary work on evaluating the effects of adding soft physical constraints to computer vision neural networks trained to estimate the conditional density of redshift on input galaxy images for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We introduce physically motivated soft constraint terms that are not implemented with differential or integral operators. We frame this work as a simple ablation study where the effect of including soft physical constraints is compared to an unconstrained baseline. We compare networks using standard point estimate metrics for photometric redshift estimation, as well as metrics to evaluate how faithful our conditional density estimate represents the probability over the ensemble of our test dataset. We find no evidence that the implemented soft physical constraints are more effective regularizers than augmentation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1971

Radiolysis of water in sealed aluminum capsules - Its prediction and inhibition.

This report presents the results of an investigation into methods of inhibiting the radiolysis of water in sealed aluminum capsules in the Plum Brook Reactor of NASA. Experimental design techniques are employed to identify the measured effects of eight variables and their interactions which control water decomposition and the resultant pressure buildup. Multiple regression analyses are used to develop predictive models for the pressure rise observed in an inpile capsule system. Predictive equations are derived for pressure rise due to the radiolysis of water with air as a cover gas or with helium cover gas containing air as an impurity or mixtures of hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen as impurities. Radiation induced reaction products of nitrogen and oxygen are identified as the key to radiolysis behavior. The prevention of radiolysis depends on the exclusion of air or mixtures of nitrogen and oxygen from the system. Pure inert gases, helium, neon, and argon prove to be satisfactory radiolysis inhibitors. This is demonstrated for helium by inpile tests lasting up to 14 days (one reactor cycle) in the Plum Brook Reactor.

Sheibley, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Low velocity opposed-flow frame spread in a transport-controlled environment DARTFire

The overall objectives of the DARTFire project are to uncover the underlying physics and increase understanding of the mechanisms that cause flames to propagate over solid fuels against a low velocity of oxidizer flow in a low-gravity environment. Specific objectives are (1) to analyze experimentally observed flame shapes, measured gas-phase field variables, spread rates, radiative characteristics, and solid-phase regression rates for comparison with previously developed model prediction capability that will be continually extended, and (2) to investigate the transition from ignition to either flame propagation or extinction in order to determine the characteristics of those environments that lead to flame evolution. To meet the objectives, a series of sounding rocket experiments has been designed to exercise several of the dimensional, controllable variables that affect the flame spread process over PMMA in microgravity, i.e., the opposing flow velocity (1-20 cm/s), the external radiant flux directed to the fuel surface (0-2 W/cm(exp 2)), and the oxygen concentration of the environment (35-70%). Because radiative heat transfer is critical to these microgravity flame spread experiments, radiant heating is imposed, and radiant heat loss will be measured. These are the first attempts at such an experimental control and measurement in microgravity. Other firsts associated with the experiment are (1) the control of the low velocity, opposed flow, which is of the same order as diffusive velocities and Stefan flows; (2) state-of-the-art quantitative flame imaging for species-specific emissions (both infrared and ultraviolet) in addition to novel intensified array imaging to obtain a color image of the very dim, low-gravity flames.

West, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2005

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Design with Multiple Selection Criteria

The approach and techniques described herein define an optimization and evaluation approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system. The method uses Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, a propulsion thermo-chemical code, power series regression curves for historical data, and statistical models in order to optimize a vehicle system. The system, including parameters for engine chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, was modeled and optimized to determine the best design for seven separate design weight and cost cases by varying design and technology parameters. Significant model results show that a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Other key findings show the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology factors, and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. Each of the three key propulsion parameters; chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, are optimized in the seven design cases and results are plotted to show impacts to engine mass and overall vehicle mass.

Shelton, Joey D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Vulnerability Analysis for Cascading Failures of Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a cascading failure simulation (CFS) method and a hybrid machine learning method for vulnerability analysis of integrated power-gas systems (IPGSs). The CFS method is designed to study the propagating process of cascading failures between the two systems, generating data for machine learning with initial states randomly sampled. The proposed method considers generator and gas well ramping, transmission line and gas pipeline tripping, island issue handling and load shedding strategies. Then, a hybrid machine learning model with a combined random forest (RF) classification and regression algorithms is proposed to investigate the impact of random initial states on the vulnerability metrics of IPGSs. Extensive case studies are carried out on three test IPGSs to verify the proposed models and algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed models and algorithms can achieve high accuracy for the vulnerability analysis of IPGSs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1995

Calculated quantum yield of photosynthesis of phytoplankton in the Marine Light-Mixed Layers (59 deg N, 21 deg W)

The quantum yield of photosynthesis (mol C/mol photons) was calculated at six depths for the waters of the Marine Light-Mixed Layer (MLML) cruise of May 1991. As there were photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) but no spectral irradiance measurements for the primary production incubations, three ways are presented here for the calculation of the absorbed photons (AP) by phytoplankton for the purpose of calculating phi. The first is based on a simple, nonspectral model; the second is based on a nonlinear regression using measured PAR values with depth; and the third is derived through remote sensing measurements. We show that the results of phi calculated using the nonlinear regreesion method and those using remote sensing are in good agreement with each other, and are consistent with the reported values of other studies. In deep waters, however, the simple nonspectral model may cause quantum yield values much higher than theoretically possible.

Carder, K. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning feature analysis illuminates disparity between E3SM climate models and observed climate change

In September of 2020, Arctic sea ice extent was the second-lowest on record. State of the art climate prediction uses Earth system models (ESMs), driven by systems of differential equations representing the laws of physics. Previously, these models have tended to underestimate Arctic sea ice loss. The issue is grave because accurate modeling is critical for economic, ecological, and geopolitical planning. We use machine learning techniques, including random forest regression and Gini importance, to show that the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) relies too heavily on just one of the ten chosen climatological quantities to predict September sea ice averages. Furthermore, E3SM gives too much importance to six of those quantities when compared to observed data. Finally, identifying the features that climate models incorrectly rely on should allow climatologists to improve prediction accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Sylvester Graphical Lasso (SyGlasso)

This paper introduces the Sylvester graphical lasso (SyGlasso) that captures multiway dependencies present in tensor-valued data. The model is based on the Sylvester equation that defines a generative model. The proposed model complements the tensor graphical lasso that imposes a Kronecker sum model for the inverse covariance matrix by providing an alternative Kronecker sum model that is generative and interpretable. A nodewise regression approach is adopted for estimating the conditional independence relationships among variables. The statistical convergence of the method is established, and empirical studies are provided to demonstrate the recovery of meaningful conditional dependency graphs. Here we apply the SyGlasso to an electroencephalography (EEG) study to compare the brain connectivity of alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects. Here, we demonstrate that our model can simultaneously estimate both the brain connectivity and its temporal dependencies.

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Use of Satellite, Surface Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data to Improve Cloud Base Height and Cloud Base Vertical Velocity Estimation

Cloud base height (CBH) and cloud base vertical velocity (CBVV) are important variables that impact the overall climate in a region as they influence the formulation, longevity, and evolution of clouds. Retrieval of both parameters have long used ground instrumentation (e.g., Doppler lidar (DL), ground base radar); however, retrieving CBH from satellites is particularly challenging given that space-based instruments only observe cloud tops. In this manuscript, CBH is retrieved using a multi-linear regression equation, while CBVV used a random forests model. Both retrievals combine satellite and numerical weather prediction data. The satellite data used are the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite imagery, while measurements of CBH and CBVV include DL and radiosonde data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory. Data from 83 summer days (May-August) in 2018–2021 featuring cumulus clouds forced by solar heating were examined and used to train the models, with years 2022–2023 used for validation. Various spatial domains were defined with one large (2.4° longitude by 2.0° latitude) SGP domain being split into smaller sections (smallest being 0.99° and 0.61° longitude and latitude respectably). CBH and CBVV values obtained from the DL as compared to the models show root mean square errors between 150 and 200 m, with CBVV values between 0.45 and 1 ms -1 . Finally, it was found that the CBH formulation performs well over all domains, while the CBVV retrievals become less accurate due to more turbulence being introduced into the observations as the number of DL stations decreases in the smaller domains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2010

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media for the purposes of proof-of-concept testing. A gross demonstration of its capabilities was performed using a sanding wheel to remove layers of metal. A longer-term demonstration measurement involved the placement of the sensor in a brake pad, monitoring the removal of pad material associated with the normal wear-and-tear of driving. It was used to measure the regression rates of the combustable media in small model rocket motors and road flares. Finally, a test was performed using a sand blaster to remove small amounts of material at a time. This test was aimed at demonstrating the unit's present resolution, and is compared with laser profilometry data obtained simultaneously. At the lowest resolution levels, this unit should be useful in locally quantifying the erosion rates of the channel walls in plasma thrusters. .

Korman, Valentin↗
NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Shielding Considerations for CubeSat Structures During Solar Maximum

The purpose of this lessons learned is to communicate the utility of shielding in small spacecraft planning for the support of mission assurance and reliability. Numerous SmallSats have been flying in polar low earth orbit for scientific, communications, technology demonstrations, and imaging with academic, commercial, and government interests. Shielding has been part of mission assurance and reliability from the advent of long duration spacecraft missions. The Shields-1 CubeSat has been operating in polar low earth orbit since 16 December 2018 with atomic number (Z)-grade radiation shielding and demonstrates shielding effectiveness. Shields-1 has collected a representative example of solar minimum data in 2019 with 8 Teledyne dosimeters over varying shielding effectiveness. It serves as current experimental data and has been compared with NOVICE Shielding estimates using the AP8 –AE8 trapped radiation model with the Shields-1 CAD and generic CubeSat 3 unit (U) models. Using NOVICE model radiation analysis coding, the shielding effectiveness's, based on a generic CubeSat 3U structure with 4 electronic boards, were estimated for aluminum wall thicknesses ranging from 0.204 cmto4.44 cm (0.550 g/cm2–12.0 g/cm2) thick aluminum. For modeled polar orbiting spacecraft, solar maximum total ionizing dose (TID)increases by nearly a magnitude for thin-walled aluminum 0.550g/cm2-0.686 g/cm2(0.204 cm –0.254 cm) typical CubeSat structures. The shielding effectiveness by NOVICE Sigma estimates, which is a shielding sphere approximation around a detector, showed a linear relationship with wall thickness, which increased over the wall thickness by a ratio of 1.43 determined by linear regression analysis. Using NOVICE Adjoint Monte-Carlo Modeling of solar minimum and solar maximum with the inclusion of a worst-case solar particle event over a one year mission without geomagnetic shielding, the TID for minimum and maximum conditions for a generic 3U with a wall thickness of 0.254 cm is 158 RAD and 1540 RAD, respectively. The modeled total solar maximum TID is over estimated, because at low orbital latitudes a spacecraft will have shielding from Earth's magnetic field. However, TID will still be significant at high latitudes over the poles, where a spacecraft is exposed in a solar particle event. In contrast, to a thin walled generic 3U CubeSat, Shields-1 electronics enclosure has a shielding effectiveness of 21.3 g/cm2from NOVICE Sigma modeling and is expected to show reduced total ionizing dose increases during the present active Solar Cycle 25 period. Because solar particle events during solar maximum increase TID on electronic parts with thin-walled shielding in short periods of time, it is a mission assurance and reliability consideration on the spacecraft’s mission value versus adding shielding for risk reduction of premature spacecraft or instrument payload loss. Since the volumes of many instruments and system electronics have reduced with small spacecraft, shielding material costs and weight penalties have diminished. A small spacecraft project budget and schedule may limit traditional radiation-hardened part use and radiation testing requirements, where shielding can contribute to mission assurance and reliability with reduced costs.

Shields-1↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Design-for-Reliability of a Power Electronics Module

The design of a power electronics module is a multiphysics problem and involves electrical, thermal, and reliability targets and constraints. Although the electrical and thermal design consider multiple aspects such as materials, geometry, and energy losses, reliability design is often limited to the selection of the attachment materials and electrical interconnect types. In this paper, we incorporate reliability metrics in the design phase by investigating the impact of package geometry on the thermomechanical behavior of the die-attachment material. To this end, we conducted thermal and power cycling simulations of a commercial six-pack power module with silicon carbide devices to compute junction temperature and strain energy density per cycle, respectively. We performed multiple simulations with different geometric dimensions and established a correlation between input features and output variables using subspace-based dimension reduction. The machine learning-based dimension reduction method serves as a surrogate model, which can be employed to identify the optimal module design from a thermal and reliability standpoint.

design-for-reliability↗