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NASA NTRS2007

TOPLA: A New Empirical Representation of the F-Region Topside and Plasmasphere for the International Reference Ionosphere

The goal of this LWS tools effort is the development of a new data-based F-region TOpside and PLAsmasphere (TOPLA) model for the electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) for inclusion in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model using newly available satellite data and models for these regions. The IRI model is the de facto international standard for specification of ionospheric parameters and is currently being considered as an ISO Technical Specification for the ionosphere. Our effort is directed towards improving the topside part of the model and extending it into the plasmasphere. Specifically we are planning to overcome the following shortcomings of the current IRI topside model: (I) overestimation of densities above 700 km by a factor of 2 and more, (3) unrealistically steep density profiles at high latitudes during very high solar activities, (4) no solar cycle variations and no semi-annual variations for the electron temperature, (5) discontinuities or unphysical gradients when merging with plasmaspheric models. We will report on first accomplishments and on the current status of the project.

Bilitza, D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A study of the radiative effects of the 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands of carbon dioxide

The potential radiative impact of the relatively weak 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands of CO2 is investigated. A comparison of line-by-line calculations to laboratory data demonstrates that the line-by-line procedure and laboratory data typically yield comparable results; however, there are cases of substantial disagreement between the line-by-line results and the laboratory data. It is observed that the Goody narrow-band model yields band absorptances in good agreement with the reference line-by-line calculations. For application to climate models, new broadband parameterizations, are presented for the 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands of CO2. Clear-sky flux calculations demonstrate that for projected increases of CO2 the impact of the 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands is comparable to that attributed to projected increases of tropospheric ozone.

Kratz, D. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Solar Sail Shape Modeling Approach for Attitude Control Design and Analysis

Solar sails operating in the space environment experience deformations in sail shape that result in relatively large disturbance torques which dictate the required performance of the spacecraft attitude control and momentum management systems. These deformations are driven by thermal loads on the booms (due to uneven solar heating), manufacturing and assembly tolerances, and variations in membrane tension. The Solar Cruiser spacecraft utilizes a four-quadrant sail design with four 30-meter length booms and four triangular sail membranes, creating a square sail structure of >1600 m2. Medium-fidelity mesh models were developed based on a characteristic deformed shape. A series of parametric studies were conducted using this shape paradigm to determine worst-case deformed sail shapes which produce bounding disturbance torques. A large database of shapes was produced, and the forces and moments induced by each individual shape were calculated using a Rios-Reyes reduced order generalized sail model. Two were selected as reference worst-case shapes for the Solar Cruiser mission: one which produced the highest pitch/yaw root-sum-squared (RSS) torque, and one which produced the highest roll torque. The results showed that the worst-case shapes at high solar incidence angles induce significantly higher (2-10x) disturbance torques than an ideal, flat-plate sail. Even with considerable safety margins, assuming an ideal sail is unlikely to sufficiently bound the disturbances, which is critical when designing the attitude control system and sizing actuators. Accurate sail shape modeling methodologies should therefore be employed on future solar sail missions.

Solar Sail↗

DOE OSTI2021

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗

NASA NTRS2022

JWST/MIRI Coronagraphic Performances as Measured on-Sky

Context . Characterization of directly imaged exoplanets is one of the most eagerly anticipated science functions of the James Webb Space Telescope . MIRI, the mid-IR instrument, has the capability to provide unique spatially resolved photometric data points in a spectral range never before achieved for such objects. Aims . We aim to present the very first on-sky contrast measurements of the MIRI coronagraphs. In addition to a classical Lyot coronagraph at the longest wavelength, this observing mode implements the concept of the four-quadrant phase mask for the very first time in a space telescope. Methods . We observed single stars together with a series of reference stars to measure raw contrasts as they are delivered on the detector, as well as reference-subtracted contrasts. Results . The MIRI coronagraphs achieve raw contrasts better than 10 −3 at the smallest angular separations (within 1″) and about 10 −5 farther out (beyond 5 ~ 6″). Subtracting the residual diffracted light left behind the coronagraph has the potential to bring the final contrast down to the background- and detector-limited noise floor at most angular separations (a few times 10 −5 at less than 1″). Conclusions . The MIRI coronagraphs behave as expected from simulations. In particular, the raw contrasts for all four coronagraphs are fully consistent with the diffractive model. Contrasts obtained by subtracting reference stars also meet expectations and are fully demonstrated for two four-quadrant phase masks (F1065C and F1140C). The worst contrast, measured at F1550C, is very likely due to a variation in the phase aberrations at the primary mirror during the observations, and not an issue with the coronagraph itself. We did not perform reference star subtraction with the Lyot mask at F2300C, but we anticipate that it would bring the contrast down to the noise floor.

High angular resolution instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Definition of the IEA Wind 22-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine

This technical report describes the design of a new 22 Megawatt reference wind turbine (RWT). The turbine model was designed collaboratively by two teams at the Denmark Technical University and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Technology Commercialization Programme (TCP) Task 55 on Reference Wind Turbines and Farms. RWTs serve an important purpose in the wind energy community, since they provide openly available data for models representative of current wind turbine technology, which can be used by practitioners for a variety of modeling purposes, ranging from aerodynamic, structural, and aeroelastic turbine modeling to wind farm flow modeling, across a range of fidelities. The IEA 22 RWT aims to model machines with projected installation in the 2025-2030 time frame. The turbine has a rotor diameter of 284 meters and a hub height of 170 meters. It is a class 1-B machine with a rotor specific power nearing 350 W m -2 and it is mounted on either a fixed-bottom offshore foundation or a semi-submersible floating platform.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis of Backwater Habitat Availability Using Remote Sensing

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. These habitats, known as backwaters, are associated with emergent sandbars, and are shaped and reformed annually by peak flows. Our recent knowledge about backwater characteristics and dynamics that is summarized in the synthesis report (Grippo et al. 2015) was based on detailed annual survey data from a relatively small sample of backwaters that were collected from 2003 to 2014 and reach-wide evaluations of backwater surface area based on manual interpretation of aerial and satellite imagery. Methods that bridge the gap between the detailed surveys from a small number of backwaters and the reach-wide assessment of their surface area would enable an assessment of the availability of backwater habitats that meet the minimum depth requirements for suitable habitat for Colorado pikeminnow. In 2015 Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) tested three regression models—linear, multiple, and partial least square (PLS) regression models—for estimating backwater depth using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery collected in July 2006 that covered the Jensen-Ouray reach of the Green River (Hamada and LaGory 2016). The results suggested that a PLS regression model showed high correlation with the reference depth (R 2 = 0.69) and had the most unbiased and consistent estimate of backwater depth. The results also indicated that the PLS model would provide reasonable estimates of the amount of habitat providing a minimum suitable depth of 30 cm for young-of-the-year Colorado pikeminnow, even though absolute depth estimates may be uncertain for backwater areas deeper than approximately 40 cm. The study also provided insights regarding the amount and the selection of calibration and validation (cal-val) data needed for improving the accuracy of depth prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deployment of neural-network-based neutron microscopic cross sections in the Griffin reactor physics application

The capability to utilize neural networks to predict macroscopic and microscopic cross section parametric spaces has been developed for the Griffin reactor physics application. The LibTorch interface enables Griffin's MOOSE-based materials to interact with LibTorch-trained models, allowing for the evaluation of complex macroscopic or microscopic cross section spaces, which are then used to evaluate the neutronic properties of the Griffin finite element model. This study benchmarks traditional ISOXML-formatted tabulation libraries against neural network-based models for 279 nuclides on 20,160 grid points for zero-dimensional and two-dimensional reactor models. Benchmark metrics include the fundamental mode eigenvalue, fission and absorption rates, and various temperature coefficients of reactivity (isothermal, fuel, and moderator). From the perspective of storage space, the complete set of LibTorch models uses 11 MB on disk, compared to the 10 GB for the ISOXML multigroup library that covers the same grid space. For the two-dimensional performance case considered in Griffin, the Torch model uses 97% less RAM than the reference ISOXML dataset while runtime increases by a factor of 3 when using the LibTorch model compared to the ISOXML dataset with multi-linear interpolation. The LibTorch model consistently yields errors within 0.01% for most analyzed quantities except for the temperature coefficients of reactivity where the maximum discrepancies are up to 0.3 $\frac{pcm}{K}$. Due to the neural network attempting to best predict quantities with no regard for a positive or negative bias for any given quantity, predictions may experience random fluctuations, resulting in both positive and negative errors. Future work will entail both depletion and coupled transient analysis to determine the predictive capabilities of Griffin with neural network-based cross sections.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modular Growth and Nucleation Formulations in Modular Plasticity Models

Recent investigations like the second and third Sandia Fracture Challenges have characterized and demonstrated the performance of a variety of failure techniques and models. These surveys have considered a wide breadth of models encapsulating both general failure criteria as well as those focusing on pore nucleation and growth. Extensive reviews exist on both topics. The former category generally consists of classic models like the Johnson-Cook or Wilkins criteria. These models were recently added to modular plasticity models in the Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAME) as criteria for use with element death capabilities. The latter category was not treated in that effort. There exists a large class of failure models based on predicting the evolution of pores and failure associated with such microstructures. While the exact mechanisms and corresponding impact on the macroscale behavior remain an active area of research, a large suite of formulations have been proposed combining different features of both pore nucleation and subsequent growth. The most famous of these are based on the popular Gurson model of pore growth derived via micromechanical analysis assuming a plastically incompressible matrix. Numerous other models exist for both growth and nucleation and the Cocks-Ashby growth and Horstemeyer-Gokhale nucleation models have been used successfully in recent Sandia Fracture Challenges. This specific combination is colloquially referred to as the "BCJ-failure model as it has been frequently used with the Bammann-Chisea-Johnson plasticity model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2012

Transforming Community Access to Space Science Models

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

MacNeice, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2015

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2023

Comparison Between Ozone Column Depths and Methane Lifetimes Computed By One- and Three-Dimensional Models at Different Atmospheric O(2) Levels

The calculation of ozone column depth as a function of atmospheric O2concentration has been performed multiple times over the past 40 years using one-dimensional (1-D) photochemical models. Several of these calculations [1–3] have been done by the Kasting group. We refer to the current version of that model as the‘standard’1-D model (see §2). Recently, Cooke et al., henceforth C22 ,performed a similar calculation using a three-dimensional (3-D) coupled chemistry-climate model (WACCM6). They found substantially lower ozone column depths at lower pO2levels. For example, at0.01 times the present atmospheric level (PAL) of O(2), Segura et al. calculated 124 Dobson units(DU), whereas C22 calculated a mean column depth of just 66 DU—almost a factor of two lower. This comparison is shown in figure 1. C22 argued, correctly, that 3-D models should be able to do a better job on this problem than 1-D models because ozone column depths are affected by atmospheric transport, e.g. the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere that blows ozone from the tropics towards the poles, as well as vertical transport that carries ozone downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Meridional transport is absent in 1-D models, and vertical transport is fixed, so model geometry almost certainly contributes to the observed discrepancies in ozone column depth. The 3-D model also has a variable tropopause height (higher at the equator, lower towards the poles), which is difficult to simulate in one dimension.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2021

Hybrid phenology matching model for robust crop phenological retrieval

Crop phenology regulates seasonal agroecosystem carbon, water, and energy exchanges, and is a key component in empirical and process-based crop models for simulating biogeochemical cycles of farmlands, assessing gross and net primary production, and forecasting the crop yield. The advances in phenology matching models provide a feasible means to monitor crop phenological progress using remote sensing observations, with a priori information of reference shapes and reference phenological transition dates. Yet the underlying geometrical scaling assumption of models, together with the challenge in defining phenological references, hinders the applicability of phenology matching in crop phenological studies. The objective of this study is to develop a novel hybrid phenology matching model to robustly retrieve a diverse spectrum of crop phenological stages using satellite time series. The devised hybrid model leverages the complementary strengths of phenometric extraction methods and phenology matching models. It relaxes the geometrical scaling assumption and can characterize key phenological stages of crop cycles, ranging from farming practice-relevant stages (e.g., planted and harvested) to crop development stages (e.g., emerged and mature). To systematically evaluate the influence of phenological references on phenology matching, four representative phenological reference scenarios under varying levels of phenological calibrations in terms of time and space are further designed with publicly accessible phenological information. The results indicate that the hybrid phenology matching model can achieve high accuracies for estimating corn and soybean phenological growth stages in Illinois, particularly with the year- and region-adjusted phenological reference (R-squared higher than 0.9 and RMSE less than 5 days for most phenological stages). The inter-annual and regional phenological patterns characterized by the hybrid model correspond well with those in the crop progress reports (CPRs) from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Compared to the benchmark phenology matching model, the hybrid model is more robust to the decreasing levels of phenological reference calibrations, and is particularly advantageous in retrieving crop early phenological stages (e.g., planted and emerged stages) when the phenological reference information is limited. This innovative hybrid phenology matching model, together with CPR-enabled phenological reference calibrations, holds 3 considerable promise in revealing spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenology over extended geographical regions.

Phenology↗

NASA NTRS2012

Wavefront Sensing for WFIRST with a Linear Optical Model

In this paper we develop methods to use a linear optical model to capture the field dependence of wavefront aberrations in a nonlinear optimization-based phase retrieval algorithm for image-based wavefront sensing. The linear optical model is generated from a ray trace model of the system and allows the system state to be described in terms of mechanical alignment parameters rather than wavefront coefficients. This approach allows joint optimization over images taken at different field points and does not require separate convergence of phase retrieval at individual field points. Because the algorithm exploits field diversity, multiple defocused images per field point are not required for robustness. Furthermore, because it is possible to simultaneously fit images of many stars over the field, it is not necessary to use a fixed defocus to achieve adequate signal-to-noise ratio despite having images with high dynamic range. This allows high performance wavefront sensing using in-focus science data. We applied this technique in a simulation model based on the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) Intermediate Design Reference Mission (IDRM) imager using a linear optical model with 25 field points. We demonstrate sub-thousandth-wave wavefront sensing accuracy in the presence of noise and moderate undersampling for both monochromatic and polychromatic images using 25 high-SNR target stars. Using these high-quality wavefront sensing results, we are able to generate upsampled point-spread functions (PSFs) and use them to determine PSF ellipticity to high accuracy in order to reduce the systematic impact of aberrations on the accuracy of galactic ellipticity determination for weak-lensing science.

Jurling, Alden S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A parametric sensitivity study for single-stage-to-orbit hypersonic vehicles using trajectory optimization

The class of hypersonic vehicle configurations with single stage-to-orbit (SSTO) capability reflect highly integrated airframe and propulsion systems. These designs are also known to exhibit a large degree of interaction between the airframe and engine dynamics. Consequently, even simplified hypersonic models are characterized by tightly coupled nonlinear equations of motion. In addition, hypersonic SSTO vehicles present a major system design challenge; the vehicle's overall mission performance is a function of its subsystem efficiencies including structural, aerodynamic, propulsive, and operational. Further, all subsystem efficiencies are interrelated, hence, independent optimization of the subsystems is not likely to lead to an optimum design. Thus, it is desired to know the effect of various subsystem efficiencies on overall mission performance. For the purposes of this analysis, mission performance will be measured in terms of the payload weight inserted into orbit. In this report, a trajectory optimization problem is formulated for a generic hypersonic lifting body for a specified orbit-injection mission. A solution method is outlined, and results are detailed for the generic vehicle, referred to as the baseline model. After evaluating the performance of the baseline model, a sensitivity study is presented to determine the effect of various subsystem efficiencies on mission performance. This consists of performing a parametric analysis of the basic design parameters, generating a matrix of configurations, and determining the mission performance of each configuration. Also, the performance loss due to constraining the total head load experienced by the vehicle is evaluated. The key results from this analysis include the formulation of the sizing problem for this vehicle class using trajectory optimization, characteristics of the optimal trajectories, and the subsystem design sensitivities.

Lovell, T. Alan↗

DOE OSTI2022

An extrapolation method for strain ranges and hold times in developing the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue design curves for Alloy 617

Experimental and numerical studies in developing the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY2022. This report focuses on the methods for extrapolating the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue (CF) design curves at long hold times and low strain ranges. In this study, the available CF failure data on Alloy 617 at 950°C were analyzed to determine a set of CF failure criteria. At very low strain ranges and long hold times, CF failure data are not accessible by experiments because of the extraordinarily long test durations and the inability of the test machines to accurately control these small strain ranges. A CF experimental approach with the concept of block-strain range CF testing protocol was developed. Tests using this protocol were conducted to generate the needed information for calibrating material parameters of the numerical material models. The Time Fraction based method and Dissipated Energy method were used to extrapolate the CF life curves to low strain ranges and long hold times. Based on the new experimental approach and CF life prediction methods, the CF life curves with various hold times were developed for Alloy 617 at 950°C. In addition, an experiment was designed and is being performed to verify the predicted CF curves at 950°C. The extrapolation procedure will be applied at lower temperatures to complete the development of the EPP+SMT CF design curves for Alloy 617 in F2023.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Open-Source Frequency-Domain Model for Floating Wind Turbine Design Optimization

A new frequency-domain dynamics model has been developed that uses open-source components to efficiently represent a complete floating wind turbine system. The model, called RAFT (Response Amplitudes of Floating Turbines), incorporates quasi-static mooring reactions, strip-theory and potential-flow hydrodynamics, blade-element-momentum aerodynamics, and linear turbine control. The formulation is compatible with a wide variety of support structure configurations and no manual or time-domain preprocessing steps are required, making RAFT very practical in design and optimization workflows. The model is applied to three reference floating wind turbine designs and its predictions are compared with results from time-domain OpenFAST simulations. There is good agreement in mean offsets as well the statistics and spectra of the dynamic response, verifying RAFT’s general suitability for floating wind analysis. Follow-on work will include verification of potential-flow and turbine-control features and application to optimization problems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗